My prediction: prices won't go above $4 this year. But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market? It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened. But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so.
You may be right that BTCUSD may hold below 4 $ for a bit more, but in the next 1-12 weeks (yes, I know it's a broad range) we will see a rise into the 6 (edit)-10 $ range.What happened to the shortterm being down? Also, what is so convincing that bitcoin will increase 100% in value in the next twelve weeks, an average of over 0.8% a day?! |
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I've been buying when under 3, and selling at over 3 for the past two weeks, and have been doing quite well while also helping to stabilize the market.
I suppose it's appropriate for a virtual currency to settle on an arbitrary whole-number barrier, but it looks to me like 3 is a stable price point: the majority of miners haven't abandoned mining, and speculators have the purchasing power to buy all of the coins sold on the exchanges.
My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year. Instead, what I'd like to see is the bid & ask walls get steeper, so that the market is less volatile when there are large buys or sells. But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market? It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened. But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so. Now to see if we can get through the holidays without a big crash.
You may be right that BTCUSD may hold below 4 $ for a bit more, but in the next 1-12 weeks (yes, I know it's a broad range) we will see a rise into the 6 (edit)-10 $ range.It doesn't look like you're actually disagreeing with me, seeing as how there are only 7 weeks left in the year. But more fundamentally, I think you're trying to analyze bitcoin as a stock, whereas I'm trying to look at it from the viewpoint of supply and demand. If prices are higher, more miners will sell more of their mining proceeds, increasing the supply of coins on the exchanges. Also, speculators like myself just won't participate in the market at a price above $3, reducing demand. Finally, those speculators that do participate have less purchasing power at higher bitcoin prices. These three effects combined effect will retard any rally. Also, speaking for myself, if the price does approach $4, I'll liquidate my long position into the rally to dampen it. Likewise, if the price nears $2, I'll send more cash to the exchanges to help soak up the excess coins on the market. This looks more like the OPEC model of setting prices, not a free market price, and your graphs aren't meaningful when prices are subject to collusion. Anyone else want to join the Organization of Bitcoin Purchasing Speculators (OBPS)? Target price is $3 right now, and we could all agree to raise it at some point in the future, perhaps after the holidays, but I'm certainly not going to help with a run-up to $6-$10. |
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I've been buying when under 3, and selling at over 3 for the past two weeks, and have been doing quite well while also helping to stabilize the market.
I suppose it's appropriate for a virtual currency to settle on an arbitrary whole-number barrier, but it looks to me like 3 is a stable price point: the majority of miners haven't abandoned mining, and speculators have the purchasing power to buy all of the coins sold on the exchanges.
My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year. Instead, what I'd like to see is the bid & ask walls get steeper, so that the market is less volatile when there are large buys or sells. But remember months ago when 10k-30k coins would often be dropped on the market by a single sell order, crashing the market? It seemed like a weekly occurrence back then, but I can't remember the last time that happened. But we still have 10k-30k bitcoin buys every week or so. Now to see if we can get through the holidays without a big crash.
You may be right that BTCUSD may hold below 4 $ for a bit more, but in the next 1-12 weeks (yes, I know it's a broad range) we will see a rise into the 6 (edit)-10 $ range. |
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record highs in which asset? can you specify what you mean?
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I know, but this is all priced in into the current exchange rate (existing and expected future use of bitcoin are included already).
This means that currently, there is no big belief that it will become mainstream. If it would we'd see massively rising prices in anticipation of this.
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great initiative.
we need more farmers doing that, and beyond Greece.
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the biggest rallies are in bear markets = large short squeeze bounces.
this bounce will again lead to a bigger stock market declinewhen? thats the key question.
But my preferred forecast assumes that S&P 500 does not rise above 1300 any more and will get to low triple digits / high double digits in the next 2-3 years. |
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I don't get it.
Your message @ 5 Nov sais:
"We predicted very accurately the rise from 2.04 $ to 3.83 $ last week in the subscriber section of our service."
But last week the price never dropped below $3.
In fact, the 2.04 mark you talk of was hit on the 20th of October, which is more than 2 weeks ago.
I should have written this more precisely. What I meant was that last week, prices reached the target with the high of 3.83 $. Now the term 'prediction' dictates that it is made before the actual event.
So my question is, at what precise date did you make the prediction for this rise?
And in any case, why not open your past short term predictions to the public as they were sent to your user?
They should be worthless for future price and if you are any good it should show when compared to historical data.
Here is the short term alert that I gave to subscribers on Oct 21, 2011: "As forecast, bitcoin prices broke out from the declining wedge and
gained 20% in short time.
Now, a sustained rise above 2.6 - 2.7 $ will open up much more upside
potential (see attached chart).
Stop loss remains just under 2.04-2$ $ (major support), while the 2.45
(62h moving average) and 2.3 $ also provide support now.
We will turn mid or long term bullish after a break above 4 $."and the attached chart  |
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If the price is going up in the next few days, we will be seeing a golden cross.
Can you post here where you see a potential golden cross? (which chart, which averages, which timescale? thank you |
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exactly. There will be huge volatility coming.
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this is correct.
Elliott Wave analysis is an art, not a robotic model.
And this is why some people are successful using it for price forecasts and trading and some aren't .
Just like many people play tennis and not all are in the top 10.
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green: the volume if prices are up in the interval
red: prices down
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Here a analysis as also shared in another thread, but it belongs here very well as well:As promised, some feedback on your EW count.
Overall, I see the longterm wave count the same as you netrin: I: big rise from Aug '10 to Jun '11. II: correction Jun '11 to date, III: huge rally once II is over.
The only small issue is that the wave II correction can not be counted exactly that way.
Wave a can't be counted in 5 waves and this is why the current c wave will also not be a 5 wave move. Wave II is not a simple a-b-c zigzag, but rather a more complex correction, i.e. a "double three".
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As promised, some feedback on your EW count.
Overall, I see the longterm wave count the same (I: big rise from Aug '10 to Jun '11. II: correction Jun '11 to date, III: huge rally once II is over).
The only small issue is that the wave II correction can not be counted exactly that way.
Wave a can't be counted in 5 waves and this is why the current c wave will also not be a 5 wave move. Wave II is not a simple a-b-c zigzag, but rather a more complex correction, i.e. a "double three".
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the biggest rallies are in bear markets = large short squeeze bounces.
this bounce will again lead to a bigger stock market decline |
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Thanks for correcting the typo.
Indeed, the low of wave 4 can never be lower than the wave 1 high.
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there may be a rally tomorrow, but this will only be a dead cat bounce for stocks before they almost die in the next 2-3 years. Dow target below 1000 we are coming..
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