I think all of us bulls should take this opportunity to short the market. All together. They'll never see it coming. Midnight EST. Who's with me??? I'm sure we could knock it down 10% in half an hour. Take profit and then go long again.  Monkey tells me that will happen with or without you. Tops out near midnight US, drops to ~~316 by morning, then resumes the ramp. Last temporary drop. Next one spells a downturn on the larger scale. I am just the messenger. Excellent news, need more time. |
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This is starting to look extremely fake in my opinion those Chinese exchanges are ridiculous.
I still find that the MMM ponzi (and copycats) is the most plausible explanation for the rise of the past few days. But this current sprint seems to be too fast to be due to MMM alone. Perhaps some Chinese know something (true or false) that the rest of the world doesn't know yet. It does not seem to be a repeat of the Jun-Aug Greek bubble -- that is, Westerners buying on the mistaken belief that the Chinese will rush to bitcoin as a hedge against some Chinese crisis. The Chinese exchanges are leading this time. But it may be simply a speculative frenzy: people buying like crazy just because they see the price shooting up, without knowing why, or caring to. So.... You have no idea what is happening or why, yet you feel compelled to share some of your unfounded guesses? I liked your content better when you were sharing the results for your thesis on the Chinese slumber cycle. At least that had some data behind it. Come on, professor! Step your game up! |
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hit $340 in chian money
entering full retard euphoria candle zone
In case anyone still cares to hear such news, my monkey currently thinks the most likely turn in this extension is 2 days hence. That would put it at 340 USD coinbase, give or take. Much appreciated as always. Does monkey still have an opinion on Monero? |
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This is starting to look extremely fake in my opinion those Chinese exchanges are ridiculous.
Lol are you short? Was the gox bubble fake to? It's virtual money dude, everything's fake  Seriously though, I was hopping for a repeat of the massive dump we took after the last time we broke 300 --- "as low as possible for as long as possible" after all...  If we don't collapse soon, I fear the accumulation phase might be over... |
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lol tarmifart is online but doesnt dare to speak up We he told me 265 was the top as well as 295 and im sure he has been shorting like crazy...digging his heels in deeper...and going more and more into the red... Wonder if he has covered his short yet? Don't worry, after the next pull-back Tami will re-appear to tell us all how he placed his short exactly at the top and he will laugh at all us suckers that have been long since 230... |
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stamps is leading these days Stamp is leading? I've obviously not been following this as closely as I should. I guess it makes sense tho, why price hasn't collapsed yet. IF stamp is leading then it's actual demand pushing the price instead of pure speculation and margin bets with leverage at finex... |
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That's why I come here...all the wonderful people saying exactly what I want to hear. Aww, you're so kind. I missed you too lambsie! |
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I thought that we were going to have a mini-rally on stamp to take the price to $295-$298-ish, but such mini-rally seems to have petered out in the $290 price spot.... or is that a false start?
We're bound to see some profit-taking, but I think it will pick up again. Does anyone else see the curves in the 1h, 2h, 4h, and 6h charts? Below 1h it looks like a line but it's still there. There's the occasional deviation above and below but take those away and the data almost fits a simple growth model. With a little imagination the curve even extends back before the dip in August, if you look at the 12h. I don't know what to make of it. Opinions? I've been watching the 12 hour chart the past few weeks. It's the sexiest thing I've seen since early 2013 when we finally broke and held above 10 dollars, and then it was of to the races. *Actually, this might be even sexier, because it's just so methodical and relentless. **btw, is tarmi still short? |
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I read something about a vast Russian MMM ponzi currently operating in South Africa buying up Bitcoins. Any news? Bobby Lee, CEO of Chinese exchange BTCC, told CoinDesk his platform has seen a significant volume increase, though he dismissed much of his competitors' volume as "artificial".
Those behind the volume, he said, are not traders but consumers sucked into a Russian ponzi scheme, MMM.
"We have posted warnings on our site and on our social media to warn users to be careful, but they have been coming to our exchange and buying out like crazy," he said, adding:
"This time it's not speculative trading but based on them getting sucked into this ecosystem." https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/654273706013798401?lang=en"South Africa" must include a many of the poorest and least educated people there. Ah, bitcoin -- bringing First World financial ruin to the unbanked in the Third World... May you all go broke, and burn in hell...Aww shucks professor, I think that's the nicest thing you've ever said. Glad to see you can finally open up and be honest with your feelings. |
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It was quite clear that the short term rally started. We clearly saw a triangle formation in our bitcoin forecast
Pretty sad when five bucks is considered a rally. At least summer is finally over; even if bitcoin remains flat we should get to see some fireworks in the legacy financial markets over the next several weeks... |
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How big of a deal is it if we go red again on weekly MACD?
Big deal for the $23 million in longs awaiting anxiously.  23.782 million, but who's counting? Edit: 23.825 MM I'm thinking that, despite the blocksize debate, or perhaps in spite of it, long is probably the way to go... If we didn't get cheep coinz last week then it isn't going to happen. common sense should prevail  Maybe not, buy it's doubtful we'll get expensive coins anytime soon, either. http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-bitcoin-auction-2015/Final Silk Road Bitcoin Auction Final Fin. do you think anyone will every be able to pick up this many bitcoin without and spillage ever again, this is bullish news. its finally coming soon, the last chance to get a butt load of cheap coins for only ~20-50% over current market rates. Hey dude, do you have money Mart out east? Here's recent email I got. Hello Users! We are proud to announce that through a strategic partnership with Taype International, we can now offer all of our users a convenient new funding option! Starting now, all users can fund their Cointrader.net account with cash at any Money Mart location across Canada! Simply go to the deposit page and select cash deposit, you will then be emailed the step by step instructions. All cash deposits will be credited to your account within 1-2 business days and users can deposit up to $9,000 per day to a maximum of $100,000 per month. https://www.cointrader.net/account/depositStay posted as we have many more exciting announcements coming very soon! Yours Truly, The Cointrader.net Team I'm sure they'll charge a hefty percentage "like 3 bucks on a hun" but compared to the bitcoin atm's I've seen, 3% would be a bargain. |
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My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship.
Agreed. Hashrate should follow price, but it seems like during those two massive increases it was the price chasing the hashrate....  Someone better suited to scientific analysis of data sets would do a better job of analyzing this relationship ( hint, hint, Professor Stolfi ) Anyways, I don't expect any further large expansions in mining technology or efficiency, certainly nothing on the scale of cpu>gpu>asic. Many people mocked me many pages ago for my concern that the block size could not simply scale exponentially for the next 20 years, but I still believe we are reaching the limits of physics and any further significant exponential type gains in computing power beyond asic will likely take us beyond the singularity. I just hope our new synthetic overlords accept bitcoin. (Ok, yes, I've been watching too much humans (tv show)) |
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^How do I upvote this? I think it will take me a while to readjust  Over here all we got is +1 ... I can't do an overlay on my phone (actually I probably could, but I don't know how) Anyways, here is rough abstraction of how I expect price and hashrate to correlate.  Something like that I guess? |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something...  Welcome back! Heh, yeah, 230 ain't bad. Much closer to equilibrium than say, 1000 or 100. Speaking of equilibrium, I think cost of mining is still around 165 from my own experiential calculations. If the price were truly too low, we should see it reflected in a falling hashrate. When the price is too high, the hashrate will increase until the expense of securing the Blockchain roughly equals the economic benefit. Mmmm that maybe wasn't quite so clear, let me demonstrate with pictures...  As you can see, hashrate and price are somewhat correlated. You can see the stagnation in 2012, the big run up in 2013, and now in later 2014 and 2015, the price declines to seek equilibrium with cost. I expect the hashrate should stay relatively flat until some major change in the dynamic (reward halving, block size resolution, BIS confirming that bitcoin will replace the SDR) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Is anyone out there capable of overlaying a time-equivalent price chart on top of that hashrate chart? I think it might look interesting. |
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Scale or die.
You really are a one trick pony aren't you? Too dense to see the risks inherent in scaling at any cost. If you choose to follow this bip 101 reckless abandon you will scale and die.
“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you (while hopping on a Blockstream™ Sidechain) will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”
I have no illusion of freedom. I fully understand what is at stake. |
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Someone many pages back linked the Gavin interview, https://youtu.be/B8l11q9hsJMPay special attention at roughly 1:14:40 , the first and maybe only interesting question, let me paraphrase: Brian: "so, if this fork succeeds, how will decisions be made in the future?" Gavin: "Mike Hearn will be the benevolent dictator, he will be the ultimate decision maker." ... He goes on to explain how he does not want to be in complete control, nor do any of the devs that currently have commit ability, but he is completely happy and ok with Mike as the sole controller and decider. He even goes in to mention that future changes will be much easier and will happen much more quickly once this change is made. I know XT is already dead, but I just wanted to point out to anyone that was still unconvinced that Gavin has been compromised... He is either completely brain dead, or he is deliberately trying to end bitcoin's function as a permissionless, censorship-proof means of storing and transmitting value. This is silly. What makes you think that people couldn't just as easily fork away from Hearn's XT? The Core/XT devs are not the Federal Reserve Board, they serve at the behest of the miners and the community. Forking or threatening to fork is the only relief valve on their power. BTW I agree that 75% of the network moving to BIP101 seems very unlikely now, but my above point remains. " The path of lost freedom is a gradual, slippery slope; whilst the recovery of such is a brutal hill to climb." |
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Someone many pages back linked the Gavin interview, https://youtu.be/B8l11q9hsJMPay special attention at roughly 1:14:40 , the first and maybe only interesting question, let me paraphrase: Brian: "so, if this fork succeeds, how will decisions be made in the future?" Gavin: "Mike Hearn will be the benevolent dictator, he will be the ultimate decision maker." ... He goes on to explain how he does not want to be in complete control, nor do any of the devs that currently have commit ability, but he is completely happy and ok with Mike as the sole controller and decider. He even goes in to mention that future changes will be much easier and will happen much more quickly once this change is made. I know XT is already dead, but I just wanted to point out to anyone that was still unconvinced that Gavin has been compromised... He is either completely brain dead, or he is deliberately trying to end bitcoin's function as a permissionless, censorship-proof means of storing and transmitting value. |
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Sorry, I should have defined the difference between "new owners" and "current owners"...
- what I mean is that the "current owners" are incentivized by profit, hence their incentive to sell.
The "new owners" in this scenario, would be individuals or state-level actors that are not incentivized by profit. (Indeed, who would run unprofitable hardware except some "otherwise-incentivized" participant?)
These "new owners" would have no profit margin, no scenario in which they could turn a profit, thus their only motive now is to attack the network. Their only incentive for running this specialized hardware at a loss would be to harm the network.
Makes sense?
Yes, thanks. Although I think that if a state decide to kill bitcoin, it won't do it by purchasing secondhand mineries. It would use instruments it's more used to: police, legislation, banks etc. How do you propose that the miners are incentivized to protect the security of the blockchain if there is no scarcity enforced on the size of the Blockchain? I agree that scarcity is necessary for creating proper bitcoin infrastructure. However, I think the scarcity should be natural, rather than artificial one. If the scarcity is artificial one, like the 1M limit, and is determined by political means, it would be handled by political methods as well. All efforts will go to political and bureaucratic struggle. This is a way to soviet-style economy. If the scarcity is natural one, like propagation time and is caused by technical reasons, it would be handled by technical methods. All efforts will go to solving these technical obstacles. This is the way to the Moon If the 1M limit is artificial scarcity, what about the 21M limit? Is that not also artificial? Should we remove that artificial boundary as well? |
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