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1042
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: November 16, 2014, 02:28:22 AM
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Go home Chartbuddy, you're drunk. Not sure if people are joking... The plots may seem broken at first sight, but they are a consequence of large changes in the order book, at some distance from the spread. Months ago, the changes were usually small and usually close to the spread, so the plot usually looked like a fairly smooth valley. I don't think I buy that. The high value plots are too similar. I think Bitstamp is sending out old data. Either chart buddy is drunk, or bitstamp is drunk, or I'm drunk, perhaps all three, either way, it's all g good note, I have no account at bitstamp. |
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1043
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 16, 2014, 02:14:02 AM
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that monetary velocity formula is a convenient fiction for ivory tower academic economists, e.g. I don't see anything about an human psychology factor in there.
Here's the one I use:
Bmo = N x A
Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc
It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).
A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.
I just had to quote this so I can read it when I sober up. Carry on. |
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1044
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: November 15, 2014, 09:51:06 PM
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2000 has a higher probability. why? because 200 has a higher probability,do the maths  Worked out an equation have you? I would love to see it. You do realize the price has hit 2000 more recently than 200?You're drunker than chartbuddy |
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1046
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 15, 2014, 05:22:01 AM
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House rules ... you give them your fiat money or your coinz you play by their rules. And all exchanges are like loaded casinos, house always wins.
Unbelievable with an asset like bitcoin, the first digital asset of its kind to allow circumvention of having to deal with crappy house rules people think they are going to beat the house by trading.
Take the coins of the table and leave the house is the only way you can win this game and bitcoin allows you to do this for the first time.
Can you explain please? What exchange are you on? Have you asked them why your position got closed yet? OKcoin Haven't asked them yet OKCoin is the shit thus far. Buy buy buy! Back to $420 Aye aye Cap'n! Wall eating mode engaged! |
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1047
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 15, 2014, 05:09:47 AM
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House rules ... you give them your fiat money or your coinz you play by their rules. And all exchanges are like loaded casinos, house always wins.
Unbelievable with an asset like bitcoin, the first digital asset of its kind to allow circumvention of having to deal with crappy house rules people think they are going to beat the house by trading.
Take the coins of the table and leave the house is the only way you can win this game and bitcoin allows you to do this for the first time.
So they can just take my money how they want? Hey dude, I realize I was kinda flippant before, and I edited my post as soon as I realized what an ass I was being. Here's the lesson to take away from this experience. When you give control of your money to a third party, you expose yourself to counterparty risk.
What you experienced is similar to what happened to many people when any number of exchanges, or hosted wallets have failed. The most important lessons that must be learned are about the core of money and what it means. |
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1048
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 15, 2014, 04:50:01 AM
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WOW, my leveraged long seems to be gotten margin called at 382??? (we hit 381.998 but it wasn't supposed to be margin called till 358)
It said it would get margin called at 358?? What the fuck has happend??
Welcome to derivatives 101 Take heart tho, it's not a lesson that can be taught. It must be learned. What?? My average price was 375 and I get margin called at 382?  Exactly. You learn quick! You did not own the asset, you owned a claim on the asset. Paper shenanigans, and it sucks, but that's what you get, and that is how their system works. What the fuck are you saying?? Are you saying some asshole decided he did not want to lend out any usd for me anymore? And he managed to do this AT THE SPLIT FUCKING SECOND we were at 382?? No. I'm simply trying to explain that there is no spoon. Edit: ok I'm sorry, that was terrible. When you give control of your money to a third party, you expose yourself to counterparty risk. |
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1049
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 15, 2014, 04:47:20 AM
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WOW, my leveraged long seems to be gotten margin called at 382??? (we hit 381.998 but it wasn't supposed to be margin called till 358)
It said it would get margin called at 358?? What the fuck has happend??
Welcome to derivatives 101 Take heart tho, it's not a lesson that can be taught. It must be learned. What?? My average price was 375 and I get margin called at 382? Exactly. You learn quick! You did not own the asset, you owned a claim on the asset. Paper shenanigans, and it sucks, but that's what you get, and that is how their system works. |
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1051
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: November 15, 2014, 04:25:03 AM
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I agree chart buddy. (Good to have you back by the way) These are indeed tenuous times. Could go up? Could go down? Bitcoin styles.  |
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1054
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Breaking news! Bitcoin is headlines
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on: November 14, 2014, 10:01:17 AM
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What if price really takes off and in the next 30 day's we'll see:
- new ATH on 26th of november
- 28 nov: surpasses Gold. Media covers this incident extensively.
- 30 nov: even more obscure media covers bitcoin almost daily, regular people hear the 'bitcoin' word almost daily both in negative and positive news.
- 1 dec: by this time Bitcoin is heavly criticized in talk shows as not being money and trustworthy because 'nobody controls it'.
- 9 dec: temporary stabilization at about 2300 USD. CNN makes special reports daily on the price of Bitcoin.
- 10 dec: Russia and China are confronted with huge demand from the people and oligarchs, lifting all bans (if any) on BTC. Some regulation will be enforced though.
- 11 dec: price continues to climb towards 3000.
- 12 dec: 3000 is reached, small crash to 2700.
- 13 dec: we see a recovery.
- 18 dec: price has gone up again and it's even more aggressive. As EUR and USD are dropping, people flee to this safe heaven.
- 22 dec: WMF and other goverments ask people to be careful trading bitcoin and try to stop buying as this affects stock markets.
- 24 dec: DJIA and other stock market crashes, gold is at low 1163. Bitcoin is at a staggering 7813.
- 2 jan: price surpasses 9999.99.
- 3 jan: big crash to ~3000 USD. Then crash to 800.
- 5 jan: we get close to 250 USD. People jump off buildings.
Sounds about right, except for that last bit. The crash will not make it below the top of the previous peak (around 1100-1200) Also, didn't you used to have an avatar |
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1058
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 13, 2014, 05:28:08 AM
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What's up with CaVirtex, it's been lagging all afternoon / evening I've exhausted my fiat over there, otherwise I'd give it a nudge, I bet that's Adam cleaning out his closet.
That's discouraging. I like that debit payment feature, even though it's a low daily limit. instant funding of fiat and withdrawal of crypto is the crowning achievement of virtex |
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1059
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: November 13, 2014, 05:20:57 AM
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Crazy shit
Bitstamp 450
Bitfinex 461
Huobi 482
weirdness
Yeah, and climbing on low volume right now, either it's gonna pop, or liquidity is dying up and "to da moon" I hope there are still some rational sellers out there.. like the ones that have been telling us to "cut our loose" not long ago. We need more martyrs, more bodies to step in front on the train. Otherwise, worst case scenario, as shroomsy likes to say, "our coins might be worth more"  |
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