If we keep staying under the resistance line that arepo pointed out, it's going to be either Monday or Tuesday not today.

I don't recall saying that. Actually I see it as a possibility.
You interpret my words, guess what I am thinking and get angry with me.
Are you a woman?

<3

 

Lol! In that post about Huobi on bitcoinblog.de, the Chinese author wrote something about the Chinese bitcoiners being annoyed with western FUD.

Maybe sell a little portion, just enough to pay for anger management classes.

My calculations say it's going down for the next days & get the fuck out now. They are probably wrong but I stick to them.

(if it happens) I'll probably buy sheets... or better, a company that produces them.

If I do that, the average ratio becomes 192220.9913 which is still close to 200000. Here you are, with the results scaled to the new average ratio:





Notice that in 2011 the red line spiked up before the reversal, bringing the ratio TV/price off the scale. Lots of bitcoin transactions happened at that time. Why? Maybe Silk Road business was picking up fast and starting giving bitcoin a compelling use case.

I have gone a bit further with this now and I have averaged the above ratio in the last two years, the average being 199950.1965.
Then I have calculated the ratio USD daily TV / (average ratio TV/price) and used the value to "predict" a bitcoin price. Results below. Values are averaged over 7 days.



I am still not happy with the result... I think the "Expected Price" as of today is too low - this because the ratio has taken its new course where it stays closer to 100000 than to 200000. Maybe I should use some better way of averaging, e.g. EMA.

Or probably this is total nonsense.

EDIT: changed to log scale

I calculated a ratio USD transaction volume vs price. I am not an expert but I believe this measures money velocity?



My logic being that in a healthy market the ratio should stay constant over time, or slightly increase.
When the ratio goes up, bitcoin usage goes up (currency case) and the economy grows.
When the ratio goes down, bitcoin usage goes down (store of value case) and the economy shrinks.

Economically I am a noob so this logic is probably flawed; tell me why and how.

Huobi is dying, if I read this right.

http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/

450 used to be the norm. Before that it was 620, and before that it was 800.
If 425 becomes the new normal flat line on low volume, which is lower than the previous one, it just means that at last dip, once more and again, more fiat got out than new fiat came in.

Apathy sucks. Let's hope that volume picks up on Monday.

Someone getting in with 300 coins bid miniwall @ 426 on stamp. Not much selling pressure against it...

Oh you come on, have a laugh sometimes. It's your closet day after all

He didn't say which week.

You're looking at both btcusd price (red) and the difference between btcusd and an arbitrary exponential trend line (blue). The blue line must be as horizontal and close to zero as possible to validate the model.

EDIT: I see rpietila added full explanation now

Here some ramblings of mine, I'd like your thoughts on them.
We assume that a using a line on the logarithmic chart is correct because of exponential adoption over time. But what if the adoption is not exponential but only, say, quadratic, or even worse, proportional to n*sqrt(n), because of Meltcalfe's law?

Another way I think of it is that the time scale is somehow warped in the sense that there are events (eg Gox news) that cause a number of players to exit the market and then kind of bring us back to a time when we had less adopters.

Exponential or not, I think of mass adoption as something coming in subsequent waves.
Compare to the troubled history of file sharing: I think right now we had a Napster-gone-bust moment, and bitcoiners are almost criminals in the minds of ignorant masses. We know that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, but I am not sure that this was the bottom, and I'm not sure how long to next rise.

Meh. When and if it goes to $100 you'll be so depressed that you won't want to buy anymore.

Thank you for excellent analysis work.

Random google search picture of a Chinese lamp post


Are you a bit more relaxed now?
Remember April/May 2013, after the FinCEN ruling, when western exchanges were dropping like flies, because bank accounts frozen or plain theft? The big bitcoin fuckup of 2013? When BTCUSD painfully and slowly slid from 130 to 90, with a few bulltraps along the way?

Well welcome to China fuckup in 2014. With the difference that China is a corrupted country governed by thieves whose agenda is unclear, even to themselves. (Yeah, worse than US). Pricewise, I speculate that such lack of clarity may prolongate the pain.

In 2013, the real bottom came only two months after bad news.
Also the hodlers' and the potential investors' minds are now clouded by the (legitimate) suspect that the price has been propped up all along by Gox cooking their books.

Most acquaintances of mine that know I am involved with bitcoin did not have an opinion about bitcoin in 2013. Now they think that I'm some sort of gambler, or worse that I am involved in criminal activity. I'm serious. Even IT people. It is almost shocking to me, to the point that I do not bother talking about bitcoin anymore.
The masses are reactionary by nature, and hence they'll stay poor by design. There is a reason why they vote for thieves, keep the same job until they lose it, and live all their life in the same country.

It gets darker before the light comes.