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2201  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-15 Forbes: It Could Be The Bureaucrats That Kill Bitcoin on: May 20, 2013, 11:03:35 AM
If we all started trading the EUR/BTC pair on exchanges without USD, located outside North America, would the US Gov be happy or not I wonder?

If CNY/BTC became the most liquid pair, with negligible USD/BTC volume, then US Gov could only be ecstatic beyond belief...
2202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 09:40:35 AM
MtGox USD Price - $ 122.65, Euro Price - 94
Bitcoin.de (Germany, Europe) Euro Price - 89

The difference has been like this for weeks. I've seen it even higher.

It just goes to show how rubbish fiat is for international transfers!

Check out the LTC/BTC rate on BTER and BTC-E, they are almost identical 0.0267

https://btc-e.com/exchange/ltc_btc
https://bter.com/

Must be all the fees, delays and other hassles which prevent equalization for fiat/BTC across exchanges.

2203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 07:17:00 AM


I'm posting this here both to warn those who ignore everything other than gox not to get carried away by gox-only movement and also to try and nudge anybody with arbing capabilities to do us all a favour and make some money helping us discover where the price should be right now.

Btcchina has 706 yuan. So the usdcny fx rate of 6.1 implies $115 per btc
gox volume for Saturday was 22k, Sunday 20k, both extremely low. However, weekend can be low. If Monday volume not nearer 60k then grab the worry beads.
2204  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] Just went live: where to send when asked why BTC has value. on: May 20, 2013, 06:14:07 AM
Whipped this thing up during the Bitcoin Conference 2013, somewhere between the party at The Loft and just now:

http://www.whyisntbitcoinworthless.com

1. Because it has been proven to work in facilitating the transfer of products
2. Because it has worked for 4.5 years, so it is building up a history of having worked reliably
3. Because it is working right now, so there is a legitimate expectation that it will continue to work
2205  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Theymos: What the fuck is up with BFL and TradeFortress? on: May 20, 2013, 03:40:57 AM
I forget. How much are we paying to use this forum?
2206  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Spending money in cold storage on: May 20, 2013, 03:29:34 AM
I'm just trying to see if I understand the idea of cold storage properly.  I get the idea is that you have a wallet on a computer that's never connected to the internet so you don't have to worry about viruses / hackers stealing bitcoins.  But, ultimately, you may want to spend those bitcoins eventually, so sooner or later it'll have to connect to the internet to do that. 

What's the idea behind this?  Is it basically using a "sneaker net" method where you send a signed transaction, carry it over on a flash drive, and receive it on an internet-connected computer?  That's my understanding of how it works, but I'm not sure if I'm correct about that.

Yes. That's how it works. Done it myself.

This is nice documentation:
https://bitcoinarmory.com/using-offline-wallets-in-armory/
2207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 02:37:29 AM
Had a good time at the conference, definitely met some cool people. This week could be interesting.

Loaded, are you getting any vibes about whether the Dwolla problem is scaring fiat off Mt Gox, or no real impact?


I have received over $250k in wires from Gox since the Dwolla account seizure with no issues. Hopefully they will obtain the proper licensing and have it all resolved soon.

Agreed!
2208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 02:23:17 AM
Had a good time at the conference, definitely met some cool people. This week could be interesting.

Loaded, are you getting any vibes about whether the Dwolla problem is scaring fiat off Mt Gox, or no real impact?
2209  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-17 China CCTV 13 - Bitcoin on: May 20, 2013, 02:04:34 AM
More stats. China has 34% of downloads in May 2013:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-01%20to%202013-05-19

2210  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Size of BTC blockchain centuries from now... on: May 20, 2013, 01:57:22 AM
Hmm, maybe the optimum block size limit is not 1 MB, but "infinity" is certainly the worst choice of all. It is also clear that at some point it will have to become limited...

1MB and "infinity" are the extremes.
There is a middle-ground which is a market-driven block size. This is achieved by a fees-market where there is competition for block-space. This was Satoshi's original vision, which still seems very sensible (not just because Satoshi liked it). The 25 BTC block reward is relatively high compared to fees, so a viable fees market won't occur until blocks are about 20 to 50Mb in size. Which is large but not outrageously so. The 1MB limit makes the fees market  stillborn, and never gives this essential feature of Bitcoin a chance to develop.
2211  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 51% attack possible ? on: May 19, 2013, 11:29:37 PM
http://bitnodes.io/

It appears that china has more nodes then any other country.  51% attack possible if they get more than half of the nodes?

Whoa, is that right?

The node globe on blockchain. Info showed almost no nodes at all less than a year ago!

China is top here for May 2013 so far:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-01%20to%202013-05-19
2212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 19, 2013, 09:41:37 PM
You know  the problem?  That the number of actual bitcoins transactions is going down, volume is doing the same and the number of users paying/buying in bitcoins is becoming quickly the same as oct-dec 2012.

These show an uptrend. If they were a price chart you would call the maintrend very bullish

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users


And those show the opposite

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses

Total number of transaction per day is irelevant matched with the unique one. Why? Satoshi Dice. There are people who are doing hundred of them daily so..


Both show a clear long term uptrend ....

Correct wachtwood.
Using the 7-day avg for smoothing
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

The peak matches the $266 peak when a lot of coins came into the market from cold storage. Only dipped since then due to lower price stability.
The number of addresses used is exploding upwards in a month by month view.
2213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 19, 2013, 09:10:53 PM
You know  the problem?  That the number of actual bitcoins transactions is going down, volume is doing the same and the number of users paying/buying in bitcoins is becoming quickly the same as oct-dec 2012.

These show an uptrend. If they were a price chart you would call the maintrend very bullish

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users
2214  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Size of BTC blockchain centuries from now... on: May 19, 2013, 08:55:36 PM
I think people start realizing that increasing block size limit is not a solution but a new problem (e.g. http://keepbitcoinfree.org).
If block size limit is kept, I see no reason why bitcoin should fail.

This video is FUD designed to further a personal agenda which is to be the renowned architect of the 3rd-party systems, which 99% of Bitcoin users will be forced to use when they are priced away from the blockchain.  

The essence of the video is that decentralization is at risk. Evidence is showing otherwise:
Bitcoin has a record number of active nodes, 350,000+, and this is increasing even as average block size is increasing.
http://bitnodes.io/

The recent days and weeks and months an ever-increasing number of alt-coins has entered flooded the market. This does not reduce BTC value as it seems, but it seems to dilute the value of all other alt-coins.

One of the alt-coins will have a flexible block size limit. If Bitcoin users find their transactions no longer work they will quickly use the alt coin which does work. Markets cleave to the best technology. Think Tesla's AC dominating world electrical systems instead of Edison's DC which has a niche role. Bitcoin has one chance for glory and a rigid block size limit will kill that chance.
2215  Economy / Economics / Re: Will BTC's umbilical cord to USD eventually throttle it? on: May 19, 2013, 12:14:32 PM
Consider what would be the rational / game theory response by Central Banks to Bitcoin when their investigative sub-committees confirm it as an existential threat.

The answer is to acquire a useful percentage of Bitcoin, or any similarly growing crypto-clone. With 21 million possible coins, 11 million issued, a CB representing a large economy could hedge against the new threat by acquiring between 500k and 1 million coins, and mining more. At $120 each this is pocket money to neutralize a novel threat.

Of course such an acquisition will quickly drive the fx rate up, perhaps into four figures. Still cheap for a CB to do this, especially as they can print fiat for their purchases!

How many CBs can do this though?  One or two, then the strategy fails as the rate goes stratospheric...

China's knows its yuan will not be a reserve currency for a long time, especially since they had hyperinflation as recently as the 1940s. It takes a very long time to earn this type of trust from the rest of the world. They are amassing gold in record amounts, but what strategy is better than having the largest Bitcoin holding as well. If fiat fades, then they are in pole position for the rest of the 21st Century.
2216  Economy / Economics / Re: Will BTC's umbilical cord to USD eventually throttle it? on: May 19, 2013, 11:36:35 AM
While the US pushes Bitcoin away, China is grabbing at it...

http://bitnodes.io/

Largest concentration of nodes, and near-monopoly on ASIC production.

2217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 19, 2013, 11:02:16 AM
Anyone cares about this news:

Webmoney a Russian paypal like payment processor accepts bitcoins

http://blog.wmtransfer.com/en/blog/wmx-the-new-type-of-title-units#.UZiYqZFcj4s

Yes, this is quite big news. Lucif was talking about it early last week if I remember correctly.

link to a thread about this? id like to learn more.

It was discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=207711.0
2218  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: TradeFortress is a scammer. on: May 19, 2013, 10:48:13 AM
geeeeez, if a forum troll can wreak such havoc then ripple doesn't seem to be that much of a system, does it?

Trust really means trust. As long as you don't grant trust to someone you don't really trust with that amount of money, you'll be fine. The trust system is what allows you to be independent of the banking system if necessary, though it doesn't insulate you against inflation caused by central banks.

Trust, just like love, is eternal only while it lasts Wink

I guess that Mark Karpeles and Peter Vessenes trusted each other for a few months while their contract was drawn up and signed.
2219  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Interest in a P2P Exchange on: May 19, 2013, 09:59:11 AM
It's one of two things that would help mitigate the problems. The other is an alt-coin that controls its own money supply to keep its value pegged to a fiat currency - a kind of parallel crypto-dollar.

That could be Liberty Reserve? Perhaps that is the best quasi-crypto version of the dollar (also a euro version exists, I think).
2220  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Alpha] Killer App for Bitcoin? BitPools - Vote with your bitcoins on: May 19, 2013, 09:42:23 AM
Excellent idea!

One important project is closer to home. Which is funding etotheipi's trust-free lightweight node proposal for improving Bitcoin.

I would vote with coins for an implementation which achieves the goal of this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88208.0
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