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2241  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitdice.me it is negative EV for investors on: May 12, 2015, 02:46:10 PM
Are you sure?


What is the EV for the investors (including commissions) if there is a single wager placed that week, 10 BTC @ 2x?

(-10BTC)(0.495)+(10BTC)(0.505)= 0.1*0.9 = +0.09 BTC

?!! That is taking a commissions on EV, not profit. But one second ago you wrote:

Quote
When someone loses on site investors get 100% of it. Profits from investors, and ONLY net profits, are being deducted at the end of the week or when investor divests, which happens first.

so which is it?  Huh
2242  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitdice.me it is negative EV for investors on: May 12, 2015, 02:42:58 PM
"net profit" should be "commission high-water mark" (right?) so BitDice should be EV+ because of that.

I'm not sure, that's a question for Alex. It could mean one of two things: either resetting the profit after each week (in which case, it's theoretically possible for it to be -EV for investors) or keeping a high-water mark like JD (in which case, it's possible for an individual week to be -EV for investors, but long term +EV)
2243  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitdice.me it is negative EV for investors on: May 12, 2015, 02:25:27 PM
AFAIK, the calculation should be:

Profit = (loss)*(chance of losing)+(win)*(change of winning)
Actual profit = profit * investor edge (house edge - commission)

So you don't calculate the commission on the win only, but on the overall profit. For example:

(-10)*(0.495)+(10)*(0.505) = 0.1 (is actually just: wagered * house edge = 10*0.01 = 0.1)
0.1*0.9 = 0.09 = actual profit.

Your maths shows paying 10% commission on the EV, not on the profit =) I believe the OP Maths is actually correct. For instance, the only wager the entire week is a gambler placing a single 10 BTC bet, and loses it. The investors profit is 10 BTC, and thus the weekly commission due is 1 BTC.


The real question here is, does bitdice.me have a commission high-water mark like JD? (In which case, everything is fine. There might be some weeks that it is -EV for investors, but all in all it's +EV)
2244  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitdice.me it is negative EV for investors on: May 12, 2015, 02:23:49 PM
You count it wrong.

When someone loses on site investors get 100% of it. Profits from investors, and ONLY net profits, are being deducted at the end of the week or when investor divests, which happens first.

Are you sure?


What is the EV for the investors (including commissions) if there is a single wager placed that week, 10 BTC @ 2x?
2245  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitdice.me it is negative EV for investors on: May 12, 2015, 02:09:01 PM
I hear that they take 10% of profits weekly. Too bad, I wish I could get a better answer than that because they don't tell you the terms for investing.

so assume that 10btc is wagered a week. the percentages show negative ev on all of the odds a player can choose.

(-10BTC)(0.495)+(9BTC)(0.505)= -0.405

(Investors Loss)(chance of losing)+(Investors Profit)(chance of winning) = (Expected Loss per 10BTC wagered)

At a glance, that looks correct for a single wager (which is a real investor worst-case).

However, assuming that bitdice.me works like JD, investors are given commission free earnings on any investing loss since the last commission was taken (a high water mark). Which has an interesting effect with a small amount of wagers: every week you have >= 0 profit, investors are -EV. However, when investors are at a loss: they are now +EV (since there's no 10% haircut), which means over an infinite amount of weeks you are still +EV

There's certainly different ways to do it. For instance in MoneyPot we take a commission in such a way that every individual bet is still +EV for the investors: https://www.moneypot.com/faq#what-commissions-do-you-charge-
2246  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 12, 2015, 02:07:14 AM
Hope no one minds, but I've taken 100 BTC out of the site bankroll. Risking 3% a game is a bit scary, especially so when I look at bustaclam's stats. So better be safe than sorry.  (Plus, I'll probably use this money to put in the moneypot bankroll to diversify my risk)   Grin

you're not reducing the bankroll %?

Also one intresting thing about moneypot is that it is slightly similar to PoW mining on PPC.

Basically if you invest more your returns decrease.

If the bankroll doubles again I'll probably switch from 3% risk / game to 2%. But at the moment, I'd rather that 100 BTC in my pocket than whale-bait at the moment. =)

And the current max-win per game is 3.4 BTC which is more than enough for the vast majority of our users. )
2247  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 12, 2015, 01:22:18 AM
Hope no one minds, but I've taken 100 BTC out of the site bankroll. Risking 3% a game is a bit scary, especially so when I look at bustaclam's stats. So better be safe than sorry.  (Plus, I'll probably use this money to put in the moneypot bankroll to diversify my risk)   Grin
2248  Economy / Gambling / Re: Looking for good Bitcoin gambling websites to add to directory on: May 11, 2015, 03:46:48 PM
You might want to consider adding bustabit, it's recently been the 2nd to 3rd most wagered at crypto gambling site =)

2249  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Shower-Thought Idea: Constrain UTXO set growth, not blocksize on: May 10, 2015, 03:47:29 PM
We've historically constrained the block size because it was the most logical thing to do. Bigger blocks take longer to propagate, and needed to be stored by all nodes. However we are quickly coming upon a future where bigger blocks can propagate at the same speed as smaller ones (IBLT) and full nodes can prune.

So instead of constraining the block size, how about we constrain the growth in UTXO. For instance we could constrain the each block to being able to increase the the UTXO set up to a fixed amount (e.g. 100 KiB).

Now instead of miners selecting for the most fees for the size, they would select for the most fees per growth in utxo. Many transactions decrease the UTXO, which is miners would strongly prefer. It wouldn't even be hard to imagine miners paying to accept a transaction that dramatically decreased the UTXO set.

We'd still need a very large block limit, to stop miners creating spam blocks (although they'd have huge incentives not to: they would have slow block propagation if they created a block full of crap that wasn't already on the network) 
2250  Economy / Gambling / Re: What's the most trustworthy dice site for US players? on: May 09, 2015, 03:37:20 PM
I am confused here. Why some of dice or casino sites in general are not accepted in US? Isn't it that EVERY online casino is illegal? And if you are citizen of USA you can't legally (in theory) play at these sites?
Instead we have a situation that some gambling services blocked themselves and some others not from being accessed from US while in reality everything gambling related, blocked or not, is illegal.

There are many jurisdictions in the world. For instance, Thailand considers it illegal to criticize their king or host a website that allows criticism of the king. However, most people don't really care if they're in violation of Thai law because they believe that the law can't or won't be enforced on them (for instance they are anonymous, or live in a country that would refuse to extradite based on something that is legal in their own country).

And in the same way that Thai law isn't world law, US law isn't either. There are countries in the world that don't specifically have a problem with operating an unlicensed casino, even if it is against US law. The US however is a bit of a special case, as it's got a bit of  history of applying political, economic and military pressure into enforcing US law world wide.
2251  Economy / Gambling / Re: The new MoneyPot.com -- A bitcoin gambling wallet on: May 08, 2015, 11:08:37 PM
Sorry about the lack of updates, we've been working hard on general improvements to MoneyPot in preparation for a couple production launches, and have put together some reasonable api docs.
2252  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 07, 2015, 07:50:56 PM
Not everyone who plays with fire gets burnt:



from our fearless russian bear currently who's worked up a handsome 6.28 BTC in profit

2253  Economy / Gambling / Re: What's the most trustworthy dice site for US players? on: May 07, 2015, 03:22:59 AM
Excluding my own sites for obvious conflict of interest issues, based on pure trustworthyness I'd personally pick FortuneJack. Despite the flaws they do have I think like their interests are strongly aligned with them operating a legitimate and fair casino. Although all favorite bitcoin dice site, my vote would go to bitdice.me


2254  Economy / Gambling / Re: TheBitcoinStrip.com | Honest Bitcoin casino reviews, statistics and more! on: May 06, 2015, 12:48:50 PM
If your architecture permits it, it's not a bad idea to dump and save the raw page on every crawl. It'll be insanely useful for debugging and being able to assign blame )
2255  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 06, 2015, 03:30:30 AM
Why add the captcha to MP/Bustabit.

It never shows it for me and I now cannot play.

Check you're not running any plugin which blocks third party scripts which might be blocking recaptcha.

I tried very hard to not use recaptchas for login, but due to some low intensity brute force attempts originating from literally hundreds of ip addresses I had to bite that bullet.
2256  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 05, 2015, 04:34:12 PM
Thanks GMaster! Looks great! Gave it a try, and works well. What might be cool is if you can use the same hotkey to place another bet as well Cheesy

2257  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 05, 2015, 03:40:32 AM
Is there a site that charts the stats over time to make such jumps more visible?

thebitcoinstrip keeps historical charts, e.g.

https://thebitcoinstrip.com/fortunejack-stats.html
https://thebitcoinstrip.com/casinobitco.in-stats.html

I suspect most of the cause is technical glitches rather than anything intentional
2258  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 04, 2015, 05:03:08 PM
Just based on the public stats of the other casinos I've been keeping an eye on. Here's the chart of our stats: http://i.gyazo.com/acc84294565cd023244ddf89018bfac7.png


https://thebitcoinstrip.com/leaderboard.html Has a good list, if you eliminate FortuneJack, CasinoBitco.in, Betcoin.tm  for having obviously incorrect stats (like instantaneous jumps of 1M btc wagered).
2259  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 04, 2015, 04:25:42 PM
Wow, pretty amazing to see the recent run we've had has listed bustabit to the #2 most wagered at bitcoin gambling site (with public stats), second to only primedice. 

Keep it up! And good luck to everyone!
2260  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: May 03, 2015, 01:27:29 AM
have you ever thought to add referral to the site?
I was going to talk about it to friends but I saw that you don't have referral system  Undecided

It's something that's been asked for a lot, but it doesn't seem possible to offer any meaningful referral system with the current razor thing house edge. Raising it just for the purpose of being able to have an affiliate program seems a bit off to me, so I'm stuck with the current policy of hoping that if you enjoy the game you tell your friends =)
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