Who else is going to short after the upcoming bulltrap?
Back down to... $360? $350? |
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So the reason we went down 100's was fear of a potential China ban. Today we learn that China won't ban Bitcoin. What does everybody do? They sell.
Well done traders and sheep. Well done for being complete idiots.
 What am I missing about the unbanning of a ban that never happened in the first place? Correct. This isn't really news and doesn't create any change. Bitcoin, in fact, was never banned in China. However, banks and third party payment processors WERE banned from dealing with bitcoin exchanges, and this has not changed. The bank accounts are still being shut down for violating this rule. What the news is saying is that, again, people are free to trade bitcoins and own bitcoins in China if they can find the means to do so. Right. And yet people are putting the bounce back to $400 down to the 'China has unbanned bitcoin!! Woo!!!' effect... -> no change. Just thought I must be missing something, but sadly not. |
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So the reason we went down 100's was fear of a potential China ban. Today we learn that China won't ban Bitcoin. What does everybody do? They sell.
Well done traders and sheep. Well done for being complete idiots.
What am I missing about the unbanning of a ban that never happened in the first place? |
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Is there anything in this we didn't already know? It's a little hard to tell through Google translate and Chinese circumlocution, but doesn't it just restate that bitcoin isn't banned, and nothing about how the exchanges will have their banking services withdrawn shortly? |
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It's time for another episode of everyone's favorite game... Test That Wall!
Yup. Very close to knocking on that wall now... |
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we haven't seen the end of this until China is out of the picture (16th or 18th at the latest).
This is only the fourth or fifth time that the C word has caused panic in the playground. What makes you think it will be the last? Agreed that 'over' is a relative term where China is concerned. However, there is a difference between something that 'might happen', and even something that is 'going to happen', and something that 'has happened'. -> It's possible to trade when your banking relationship is going to be cut off. It's a whole lot harder when it actually has been. That brings a certainty that isn't around now. The catch will be if the Chinese government let the ban slide for a while with some banks/exchanges, prolonging the misery. |
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a lot of useless troll discussion, not so much as to whats really going on and what we should expect.
="please do my thinking for me" Provide an opinion for discussion, at least. Mine? $400 holding is optimistic, and we haven't seen the end of this until China is out of the picture (16th or 18th at the latest). |
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It doesnt really maters - fud its or not - bitcoin is going down for more than 4 months. How naive one must be to believe, that in a month or two it will boom to 500-1k? I say bars will run it down to the button, trample reputation and any wish for old-buyers to invest again. And then media will step over it again. No good
Im sure the people who watched it go to $2 from $30 stay there for longer than 4 months and then to $266 would disagree with you but ehy you know best right?! Thats would be the equivalent of going to about $80 now, you seriously trying to say were going to $80? Stop it, you're turning fonzie on. |
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The difference now is that China has actually got to a sustainable solution. Now they have found a solution which provides the capital control they desperately needed without completely banning a revolutional technology. Similar to the compromise that they came to with the internet as whole.
Sorry for bothering but what's the solution they found? (somehow I managed to miss it) Today, BtcTrade and Huobi join OKCoin, FXBTC, and BTC38 in announcing an end to their acceptance of Chinese RMB deposits via bank card recharge. It is worth re-mentioning that Bitcoin is not banned in China. China has merely forced Chinese Bitcoin exchanges to operate outside of Chinese banks, fiscally. China waPrecnts to limit the amount of Bitcoins that can be bought by Chinese citizens to a measly $50,000 USD worth annually, thus limiting capital flight by that method. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/22obst/stop_the_fud_china_is_not_banning_bitcoin/+1 Some of us have been trying to make that point for a while. If China wanted to ban Bitcoin, it would... well... ban Bitcoin.  Not really. Banning bitcoin would mean banning the internet. Choking exchanges hamstrings bitcoin and it's more practical (i.e. it actually has an effect) than deeming it illegal. Precisely my point. China has analysed Bitcoin and concluded that it's both a) practically unstoppable just like the Internet itself and b) a real threat to RMB. They can stall it. They can try and control how people acquire it in lieu of their Yuan - but they can't stop it. They might not even want to. They just want to try and retain as much centralised control for as long as possible while they try and come up with a backup plan. For all we know they're hard at work making cryptoyuan right now.  Anyway, the point is that honey badgers eat politicos for breakfast. Ah. Though for what it's worth, I doubt many Chinese will send their $50,000 abroad, compared to those who use the exchanges now. |
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The difference now is that China has actually got to a sustainable solution. Now they have found a solution which provides the capital control they desperately needed without completely banning a revolutional technology. Similar to the compromise that they came to with the internet as whole.
Sorry for bothering but what's the solution they found? (somehow I managed to miss it) Today, BtcTrade and Huobi join OKCoin, FXBTC, and BTC38 in announcing an end to their acceptance of Chinese RMB deposits via bank card recharge. It is worth re-mentioning that Bitcoin is not banned in China. China has merely forced Chinese Bitcoin exchanges to operate outside of Chinese banks, fiscally. China wants to limit the amount of Bitcoins that can be bought by Chinese citizens to a measly $50,000 USD worth annually, thus limiting capital flight by that method. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/22obst/stop_the_fud_china_is_not_banning_bitcoin/+1 Some of us have been trying to make that point for a while. If China wanted to ban Bitcoin, it would... well... ban Bitcoin. Not really. Banning bitcoin would mean banning the internet. Choking exchanges hamstrings bitcoin and it's more practical (i.e. it actually has an effect) than deeming it illegal. |
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I'm saying that a change in cash flow due to something actually happening has a real and direct affect on the market regardless of what speculators think and is almost impossible to prepare for or 'price in'.
Okay, well I agree with you to a point but its not impossible to prepare for, if you anticipate based on the news that the price will drop due to exchanges bank accounts being closed then that is preparing for it, thus it gets priced in slightly. Are you attempting to suggest that the price drop due to the confirmed news would have been the same amount even if people had not already heard it was likely and taken a position based on that. I won't speak for TERA, but 'news' is 'priced in' on guesswork. When banking services are withdrawn, we'll see how accurate the guesswork was. This happens all the time, hence xxx news report saying 'shares rose as earnings exceeded expectations' or whatever. |
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Is anyone active on chinese forums? What is the general conensus there?
Fuck it, I'll get the hell out of BTC.
Fuck it, I'll transfer my BTC to an exchange outside of China.
?
General consensus is 保持Chinese for HODL? I'm not sure that's what they're saying in China... |
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People whats going on?
We are close to 400 and there is no volume at all! Do something!
To be honest I think most of the news was already priced in and people have been taking their positions over the last few days. However this is just the announcement and the deadline is not for a few more days so no doubt theres people waiting to buy until after that... it gets extended in the Reddit I read regarding huobi, to the 18th lol. However real question is some are saying this is a call, oral communication. It is possible a very successful social engineering hack to FUD us to death lol. I can't imagine the pboc not putting this shit in writing lol .. or they really are just brake pumping till they can think of better controls, which will never occur Who knows its a mystery at this point, I beleive the oral communication part was between Huobi and their bank though not their bank and pboc? I believe it was in person. I wouldn't assume that because it's not in writing it's less significant. China doesn't work the same way as US/Europe. |
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You said we had a 50-50 ('rounded off') chance of going below $400.
And that if we did the price would end up between $166 and $366.
This isn't a prediction. It means 'The price might go below $400 and if it does it will end up below $400.'
^^^
This is for the benefit of newbies who might be tempted to take cosmo seriously. The other threads people have dug up on you tell people everything they need to know about you.
For me, I think it's time you joined igorr on my ignorr list. I believe you'll get on well together.
EDIT: for the record, bearish short term and think that $400 holding is optimistic, but it doesn't make a difference to me either way. I earn my btc and will continue to do so over the long term regardless of price. Long term I think bitcoin has a bright future. Sentiments here are based on troll moronity, not fear that the wiggly lines on the charts might wiggle more than usual.
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Institutional investor ready and waiting...
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Why is huobi suddenly panic buying?
Gox users kept going right up to the wire. Probably people trying to make a frantic last buck before the ship finally goes down. -> uncertainty won't be over until the 16th (or possibly 12th, since I think this is when banking services will be withdrawn?). |
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Plenty of hedge funds are buying bitcoin. They are doing it slowly, and stealthily, so as not to move the market.
Is this from personal experience or do you have a source? Personal experience, and sources. Several fund managers have stated on Bloomberg and CNBC that they were accumulating bitcoin. I know fund managers who contract for mining output. Very interesting. The mining angle makes a lot of sense. I had assumed that it would be easiest to approach big players privately and make them an offer for (say) thousands or tens of thousands of coins at a given sum each. Trying to sell that many on Stamp etc would crash the market so it's a good option for whales who want to cash out in large amounts. Although I imagine that's going on too, I was surprised that it doesn't appear to be reflected in bitcoin days destroyed - anyone who's bitcoin rich has probably been hodling for 2-3 years so it would probably show up above the noise. Do you happen to know (roughly) what kind of quantities they're buying up? |
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Plenty of hedge funds are buying bitcoin. They are doing it slowly, and stealthily, so as not to move the market.
Is this from personal experience or do you have a source? |
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i have talked to friend about bitcoin. he is investment banker. he said, that bitcoin is not really interesting for him and banks wont join yet. the volume is simply too low for the big money.
imagine that 100million usd is peanuts for wallstreet. if they would pump money into bitcoin, the price would explode short term but they would have trouble to sell at a profit because the volumes are too low.
so i agree with my friend, i think its too early for wall street.
what do you think about this?
Wall Street is a very diverse environment with lots of different types of investors with different risk appetite and different return requirements. For the vast majority of wall street Bitcoin is not a proposition in the short term, for a small minority it is very much on their radar screen - that is why bitpay, circle, coinbase etc are able to source venture capital. Most of Wall Street is far more likely in the short term to invest in things it understands, things with dividends and cashflows, ie corporates than it is in buying a bitcoin or lots of them - but others will see that bitcoin offers other things. Bitcoin is an option like play in the financial world, and it is not particularly correlated with stocks and bonds - thus it offers diversification - wall street likes diversification. The IRS tax ruling is a positive - it delivers some certainty- Wall Street likes certainty and hates uncertainty Bitcoin maturing and engaging with regulators is a positive - Wall Street does not want to get arrested for investing in bitcoin or bitcoin startups, they also want to IPO those startups they won't be able to do that without a regulatory environment. Barry Silberts industrial level exchange will be a positive - Wall Street is not going to buy coins on BitStamp unless Bitstamp relocate to London or NY. Things are going in the right direction for Wall Street to have more involvement in bitcoin or crypto currency, but you will have to be more patient that this forum is generally wont to be. Bitstamp is in London, sort of. It's just their bank that's Slovenian. Are you saying people on this forum are impati- HEY! We broke $453!!! CHOO CHOO!! |
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