You have a lot of people in this for the long haul, and a lot of people who look at "Bitcoin crashing" as a sale on bitcoin. I for one put two huge buy orders in around the $430 mark and was sitting in front of my computer on the spike to 710. Did I sell? No, because I rather hold BTC than fiat, and hopefully more and more people will feel the same way.
During bull markets when longer technical indicators start to reverse, I switch my selling strategy. Instead of "selling for fiat" and holding fiat for a prolonged amount of time, I only do very quick "short trades" immediately after spikes when it is clearly overbought, or if some bad news comes out (like silk road) and it's clearly going to spike down. I get in and out in 5 minutes to an hour and don't leave the charts till I am back in. So for example during the spike the other day to $710, I quickly "shorted" (sold and rebought) ,my bitcoins from 710 to 670 and then again from 700 to 650, with about 5-15 minutes in each trade, increasing my coins by about 15%. Then once I'm back in, that's it, I don't sell again. I don't speculate that maybe it will also go from 650 to 610. Sure that might happen and I be "down" for a little while when it goes from 650 to 610 but that's simply too unpredictable, slow, and risky of a thing to speculate on, when I can do just fine by grabbing low hanging fruit instead. |
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OP's mistake lies in the title of the thread. Why are you trading on stagnant days? I only like to trade during volatility+volume.
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I see that bear services have been requested here. While I have been bullish lately, I will be glad to make a good old bear chart   |
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pictures of rockets, trains, and dinosaurs are the best TA.
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World news is just an excuse for volatility and for certain waves to happen at certain times. What really drives bitcoin is the networking effect, exponential growth, and how many users there are who invest in, use, and create businesses and technologies for bitcoin. The networking effect works something like this: in 1 year, one bitcoin user manages to get 10 of his friends interested in bitcoin, and then in another year, each of the friends manage to get 10 of their friends interested in bitcoin, so now 100 friends are into it, and so forth and so on. The amount of people represent the amount of interest, support, innovation, and potential money is lying there waiting. This is why we have 'the trendline', which represents the average rate of exponential growth. There is a predictable cycle with a boom that goes way over the trendline and a bust which falls back to and finds support against the trendline. The bust is often assisted by some world events, which make it seem like the world is going to end and bitcoin is doomed. However, we know that support will be found at a certain point, on the trendline, because the enhanced user base is going to make that happen. The new userbase is always going to lead to the production of good news to trump the bad news at that certain point because it is the mathematical inevitability (or probability) that SOMETHING is going to magically happen at that point with that many people and that much money involved.
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There's that analyst on here who says that the waves on the chart right now are twice as long as the waves in 2013. If that's true, this might have not have been the final capitulation, but rather the 'second crash' (like the crash to 78). Then the final capitulation would start in a month from now and go to 500 or so. Then we would be trading against the real trendline and not this elevated trendline.
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I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed. If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.
A bull may be transformed into a bear? Do you have to have a Bitstamp account to view this information? I do NOT have an account, but I can view the bid and ask order books - but only back so far. Currently, with the price at $663, I can see between $530 and $796. I did NOT know that anyone could view beyond those order price points. |
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I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed. If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.
I'd be more concerned by that $633 flash crash. Where the hell is Slovenia, anyway? It's 2014 and I can't believe we don't have better exchange options yet. Huge entrepreneurial opportunity for somebody who can recognize the need for transparency. there was no "flashcrash". there was some misplaced trade, possibly late reported or an error in feed. It was just a couple trades, and if you looked at the order book at the time, they were not possible. |
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I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed. If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.
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So we seem to be converging around TERAs "resistance point" of 666. What does this mean, TERA? Does this mean that Bitcoin is the mark of the beast, after all? Or is it Mark, that is the beast? BA-DA DUM TSCH  $666 is 3 day EMA 30. Right now 3 day emas and macd are down, so it should be a resistance area, until they are up. haha, you sure 666 is resistance? starts looking like support to me :3 Depends how many bitcoins or cash you have right now and how many drinks you''ve had before  People are often trying to see what they want to see. Here is a comparison of 3 day ema resistance strike last year and just now. Now that I look, there was a similar wick in 2013. So the spike to 720 makes more sense to me now.  |
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I'm trading on bitfinex mostly right now. I'm just not using the shorting. Bitfinex offers a handful of advanced orders like stop loss and trailing stop loss. I don't use them... because
1. Executing any kind of order at market on bitfinex results in a horrible execution price with massive slippage or somehow that magically skips over other orders on the book.
2. A stop loss doesn't fit in with my bitcoin trading strategy. Bitcoin is too volatile and I believe in its strong fundamentals. Most bitcoin investors are actually in cold storage (and I will be migrating there shortly) and you can't even possibly use a stop loss there.
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My original plan was to hodl but the spike was so ridiculous that I had to make a couple quick shotrs from 710 to 670 and 700 to 650. Now I am hodling again. Quick shotrs are the best ones - the ones where I can get in and out in 15 minutes without trying to guess the trend and hold fiat for an extended amount of time. For example I know I might be able able to short again and prices might even reach as low as 610 but I'm not bothering right now.
where are you able to buy trade options for BTC ? Sorry. By "short" I actually mean that I sold my bitcoins and rebought them. You can, however, shortsell on bitfinex, and some other margin trading and CFD platforms. |
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So we seem to be converging around TERAs "resistance point" of 666. What does this mean, TERA? Does this mean that Bitcoin is the mark of the beast, after all? Or is it Mark, that is the beast? BA-DA DUM TSCH $666 is 3 day EMA 30. Right now 3 day emas and macd are down, so it should be a resistance area, until they are up. |
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I want to wake up and see the price very low so I can buy cheap
I can't miss a second bull month like in november
Why don't you just use limit orders. What if you wake up and the price WAS cheap but you missed it? |
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"the 400 bottom is in" - sounds like a news presentation. And I made this call the day it happened.
Please link me to it. Large buying activity on stamp in 200-400 blocks. Walls getting demolished. Looks like bottom.
Just think 2 months ago when btc was trading at $1000 and all the tiger direct, overstock, etc. was happening (now there is even more adoption than then). If someone told you... in 2 months from now, you'll be able to buy at $400/btc on bitstamp, but DONT DO IT, because mtgox will be closed. What would you think?
This is probably a good of a time as any to just make a long term investment in bitcoin or at least take a starter position (with money you can afford to lose) and then look away from it. It might go lower than this but if btc survives then it will probably be back above these levels rather quickly. Then you might have missed not only the bottom but this level also, and you'll feel really dumb. It might even be better than the risks involved with having fiat on exchanges at this point. If bitcoin REALLY crumbles then the exchanges might go down with it and youll have nothing. Also withdraw enough fiat so you can have a comfortable life and be satisfied with your winnings in the event that that bitcoin does crumble. I'm thinking of perhaps allocating as follows:
40% cold storage.
20% fiat on exchanges.
40% withdrawal (20% fiat and 20% gold)
---Then later...  Thankfully there are things I can OBJECTIVELY look at. Either this was bottom or we are 1 step away from it.
Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)
wait for the weekend. If BTC is going to take a hammering it will be over the weekend.
I can honestly see it down to 400-450 with then a slow climb back up to about 600.
The main reason for this is the money wants to make money and to do this BTC needs to fall before some big buys go in.
look at BTC-E realy small amounts of BTC being traded for quite big swings
Sub 450 is unlikely. Too much volume.  This would make for a somewhat more realistic bottom. (though it still looks a little short to me overall) Any predictions on when the breakout is going to come and is it going to be up or down ?
Short term breakout down. Then midterm breakout up. |
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Can we get together all these useless failied short term speculation threads (including this new one '$1000 by friday') and burn them together in a bonfire?
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 Ok here is a chart with 1,000 being reached by friday. Does this make any sense to you, at all? Look at the previous rallies, and their length and shape. Why do people still make these threads about exorbitant short term predictions that are always wrong and then laughed at. 1,000 will be reached briefly, on the way to ATH. |
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