The spikes down on news are not really capitulation events. They are too fast and most of the volume is mean reversion traders. A true capitulation will be much slower and you'll see it clearly on the weekly chart where the same level starts to gain more and more volume.
I don't think that's a very practical distinction. Intrinsically there is perhaps a difference between (news driven) crashes and (sentiment driven) capitulations, but they regularly co-occur and it becomes difficult if not impossible to precisely tell them apart. Even if you can tell them apart (by volume and how they stretch out over time), I am skeptical about claims what a "real" capitulation has to look like: In late June/early July last year, there seemed to be consent among the technical traders that we "didn't properly capitulate yet". I remember several (detailed and thoughtful) threads that made this point, for example by slipperyslope and bear-in-a-suit-avatar guy. Didn't really matter... early July came and the market decided what we had was good enough for a capitulation, and moved on. First into an upwards sloping consolidation (July to October), then (after the Silk Road flash crash that revealed the real buying pressure), into the ATH rally (October to December). Of course, China had something to do with it as well. In my opinion, we capitulated just fine on April 11. Or at least, "good enough". The problem is just that, afterwards, buying pressure still turned out to be insufficient to support the price level resulting from that capitulation. That's why, after the initial upwards swing, a period of sideways trading follows, soon complemented by a few mini pump&dumps, and then the next capitulation is on the horizon. I expect this cycle will continue until we are able to really defend any price level. Note that each capitulation cycle works towards that in two ways: 1) the resultant price level is lower, so whatever fiat is available is able to soak up more coins, and 2) it gives the market more time to recover, both in the sense that a majority starts feeling that we're read to go up again, but also by giving more time for new participants to enter the market, bringing in new fiat that accumulates and waits for a chance to enter. This is apples vs oranges here. You are talking about a subcycle consolidation vs a supercycle capitulation. We didn't need to 'capitulate' in July because we were still in the midst of a weekly uptrend. |
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I think it was something about a Chinese bank account closing or the 'apr 15 deadline'. I don't really care about the news though. I just know when we are close enough to the downtrend line, we are bound to go down for some reason or another - the market is just looking for any excuse to jolt down.
You have a shorting target then? I don't have any guess about the bottom that I can be confident about. I am closing out all my trading positions on the next big move, whether it is up (Trend reversal), or down (good price) and quitting trading. Fair enough, I'm just waiting for the real trend reversal and then Im max leverage and getting on with life for a few months. You have to keep in mind that even after the reversal there are going to be a lot of sideways periods that go on for months. Are you just going to hold a leveraged position for months and months? That's a lot of swap fees (and a lot of exchange risk). I only like to leverage during the ATH rallies. |
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IT's like the only thing I DONT want the market to do is to go flat like it has been for the past 2 weeks and that's what it had to do.
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I think it was something about a Chinese bank account closing or the 'apr 15 deadline'. I don't really care about the news though. I just know when we are close enough to the downtrend line, we are bound to go down for some reason or another - the market is just looking for any excuse to jolt down.
You have a shorting target then? I don't have any guess about the bottom that I can be confident about. I am closing out all my trading positions on the next big move, whether it is up (Trend reversal), or down (good price) and quitting trading. |
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3 days MACD (bitstamp) is GREEN for the first time since december... new rally is here  Wrong. It appeared green briefly on Apr 24 also. |
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You know I thought the same thing about Gox too. Bitcoiners just live in la la land where everything is 'FUD' and everything is going to be ok if they only believe - nothing bad can happen to them.
Also these are probably all just high roller daytraders who only left their profits in and are playing with 'house money' to leave their daytrading bots on as long as possible till the very last second and milk as much more profit as possible.
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My pattern matching skills tell me we're more or less in the same place as we were last July...
I do not recall a weekly ema cross last year. |
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dont fuck with that 12h macD  Buy or die!  Remind me what happened in regards to news etc around that time? I think it was something about a Chinese bank account closing or the 'apr 15 deadline'. I don't really care about the news though. I just know when we are close enough to the downtrend line, we are bound to go down for some reason or another - the market is just looking for any excuse to jolt down. |
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dont fuck with that 12h macD Buy or die! |
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Watch out. If Huobi breaks 2700, it might just have one giant candle all the way below 2500 when the pumpers decide there's no more hope left.
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HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??
Are we back in a bull market now or something?
Yes; this is totally a bull market chart....  I sense your sarcasm, and I feel you are justified also! However, I genuinely don't understand how that chart would support that position. It starts low...ends high? It's a sort of bearish divergence on the chart using the volume. It surged up 150 yuan on high volume. Then it did the same high volume a day later only to set a high a mere 20 yuan higher. |
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I think right now the Chinese exchanges are in a desperate attempt to pump and draw in as much money as possible over these next few days/weeks so that they can close in the black or something.
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HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??
Are we back in a bull market now or something?
Yes; this is totally a bull market chart.... |
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Finally bears are getting tired of waiting and are thinking this is their last chance to get BTC under $500.
Correct. This is now a 'nervous bear rally' - similar to about 20 in the past few months. |
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Great. Now some Chinese central banker is going to write another article about how "bitcoin prices soared 200 yuan into the moon due to more misleading rumors and this is unacceptable" and act even quicker to close the exchanges.
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You're most probably right TERA but still, it's refreshing. Also, trains.  I like this train. It is original. Is that the monopoly man? |
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It is a crazy mentality that builds on Huobi every time there is any kind of news and any kind of momentum builds. It's like "Oh my god. It's happening. China must have unbanned bitcoin, and/or this is the end of the bear market - right here is the reversal. I need to buy right now because this is the last bitcoin on Earth before $1,000".
Then later there is some horrific crash.
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On to more serious matters, why are there such big buy orders on Huobi?
Because of all the hot newses that the exchange owners wrote. |
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I had a vision when I was drunk in March. It looked something roughly like this. Down to $270 I believe.  |
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I think the Chinese exchanges should also make a resolution to show the entire order book.
why not real volume ? At least on ripple you can monitor everything. Bitstamp is already in. That is already one of their resolutions. By eliminating HFT, the volume will be reduced to the 'real volume'. I think ripply is off topic here. This forum is about cryptocurrencies - not just any and every payment technology. |
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