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2381  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-06 Financial Times: US regulators eye Bitcoin supervision on: May 06, 2013, 10:05:22 PM
Quote
Senior officials at a top US financial regulator are discussing whether Bitcoin, the controversial cyber-currency, might fall under their regulatory remit.

Bitcoin “is for sure something we need to explore”, Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) told the Financial Times. A person familiar with the CFTC’s thinking said that the regulator is “seriously” examining the issue.

Said Mr Chilton: “It’s not monopoly money we’re talking about here – real people can have real risk in these instruments, and we need to ensure that we protect markets and consumers, even in what at first blush appear to be ‘out there’ transactions.”

[...]

This is what is so sickening. They really mean "protect the TBTF banks and the banksters inside them"

How much protection did the investors in MF Global get?  How much protection did Corzine get?

Expect regulators with this track record to be unsatisfied until Bitcoin is unusable.
2382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 11:01:56 AM
Interesting chart. Where did you get it from?

From a colleague of mine, who used bitcoincharts.com data.

ManBearPig has price data going back to 2009 which shows the trend has been consistent from the start,


I don't see any option at bitcoincharts.com for that type of chart. Do you mean he just used their data and then his own charting software or ?

That is a really interesting chart, probably because it just keeps going up steadily  Grin

If you could find the link that would be great - much appreciated.

IAS

Yes. Raw data only from bitcoincharts. You can set the chart you want, like this all-time daily one:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25
And use the "load raw data" at bottom left to get the numbers. Then chart it in any package (in log form)
2383  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 10:47:19 AM
Interesting chart. Where did you get it from?

From a colleague of mine, who used bitcoincharts.com data.

ManBearPig has price data going back to 2009 which shows the trend has been consistent from the start,
2384  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-05 Bloomberg - Lenders May Create Bitcoin Rivals, Says NZ Bank Group on: May 06, 2013, 10:20:35 AM
I watched the whole interview and panel "discussion" ... the banker guy was pretty much ill-informed about how bitcoin works so not sure why they had him as the bitcoin go-to guy. The panel were all dyed-in-the-wool statists and spent most of the time saying how bad bitcoin is for anybody who even thinks about touching it ... no balance at all and lots of FUD.

NZ will be a bitcoin backwater for quite some time going by the dunder-heads on this show if they represent leading light NZ thinkers qualified to talk on television about world affairs ....

NZ is not intellectual "ready" for Bitcoins (in its current form)... which is probably the case with many countries. Bankers are good with numbers, but not necessarily with computers. So I agree that NZ is going to be behind the game should Bitcoin gain massive traction.

Several major NZ banks are Australian owned anyway.
These countries have strong currencies and low government debt. It may be that the public in strong currency countries will not automatically see Bitcoin as a safe-haven as quickly as people in places like Cyprus and Argentina.
2385  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 06, 2013, 10:06:11 AM
So why even have 8 decimal places in the first place then?

Because some time in the future 1 BTC just might be worth $1,000,000.00 (i.e. 1 satoshi = 1 cent).
However, Bitcoin will not get to this truly excellent state if it is suffocated in infancy with transactions which existing fiat systems deem too stupid to bother with.

why the fuck would you send less than 5uBTC to ANYBODY?

Exactly! Can anyone detail any previous fiat transaction they had for an amount < 1 cent?

2386  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 06, 2013, 02:48:49 AM
But you are defending something only the bitcoin "millionaires" want.  So far the majority of the bitcoin world is against this if you check the other post/poll in this sub and the votes.  I don't care if it's permanent or not.  Transaction size should not be limited. Period.

This is exactly how I feel about this change, when and if it occurs. Cutting poor man out. This actually makes my skin crawl.

You know this only affects transactions < 1 cent? Surely you understand that. How many fiat transactions have you ever done for less than 1 cent?
How many poor people would throw away a 1 cent coin? How many beggars would spit at you for tossing them a 1 cent coin?
2387  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 06, 2013, 01:56:38 AM
So with Gavin's patch, all this stuff about "a Bitcoin is divisible to 8 decimal places" has become untrue.

Start thinking! This is a transaction done just now, at 23.27181128 BTC

https://blockchain.info/tx/25b03fc6f57db1c38e1d81a35191a8f08394171419b82a7f1d8b5bd4ddc2be35

Precision of 8dp is not changing.

Let the market work.

The fees market can't work until the fees per block approach the 25 BTC block reward.  Transactions have to come from real-world business flow, and there is not enough of it yet. Flow needs to increase 50-fold to create a viable fees-market. Spam transactions are effectively where the fee is less than the cost to the network of processing the transaction. These do not help create a viable fees market.

2388  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 06, 2013, 01:04:13 AM
If you have ever sent a transaction without a fee attached, you are spamming the blockchain more than SD.

What is everyone's take on this? (will edit in my take on it)

Below a certain economic value, it becomes trivial to use ultra-low-value transactions as data transmission.

This. Just because a fee is paid does not mean it covers the economic cost to the network per transaction.
2389  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 06, 2013, 12:56:43 AM
Bitcoin needs distributed block chain storage. This will fix everything.

This.  There is no reason why every node needs to store every block.  Luckily, the solution is obvious: blockchain pruning.

I'm all for it. So, when this is implemented, then perhaps the coin dust minimum can be reduced from 5430 to 1 satoshi at a faster rate than the BTC fx rate is climbing.
2390  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 06, 2013, 12:48:42 AM
It just boggles my mind that someone will play around with 2mil in cash in a market like this.  I wonder how many BTC he has?  

Zero. And just learned about Bitcoin, how amazing it is, and wants a long-term holding like Winklevii, Exante and Keiser?
2391  Economy / Speculation / Re: The End Is Near on: May 06, 2013, 12:23:03 AM
You probably lost a lot of money trading because you thought you were smarter than you actually are.

Touche.

Came-from-Beyond probably loaded up with BTC at 10c and sold it all at $10, feeling very happy for a brief period. But then, shock horror, it keeps going up! So he has been grinding his teeth watching it climb well over $100. Talking it down is the last throw of the dice to get back in at $10.
2392  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 05, 2013, 11:30:18 PM
Now, we will be regulated to only sending transactions of a certain size.  No free market choice here...

Shame of them limiting the amount to one satoshi! it should be 1/100000 of a satoshi.....

What kind of argument is that?  Roll Eyes
You have a point, but Bitcoin started with an understanding that 1 satoshi was the minimum.  Now, we're being told that the limit is 5340 satoshis, with no free-market input on the matter.  It's rather disappointing.  Individuals should be able to decide what size of transaction is too small - we shouldn't all be forced to suddenly abide by the same arbitrary rule.

5340 satoshis is negligible, less than a US or Euro cent, and a very sensible minimum. This cutoff is a needed arbitrary rule which mirrors the real-world where fiat sub-cent transactions are also unwelcome.  The 5340 will be reduced as BTC value increases.

This whole thread is a fuss about a benefit interpreted wrongly.

The Achilles Heel of Bitcoin is being swamped by transactions worth less than a cent because, unlike fiat coinage transactions, Bitcoin transactions are stored on thousands of servers for years or forever.
2393  Economy / Speculation / Re: The End Is Near on: May 05, 2013, 10:51:49 AM
IT ONLY HAS BEGUN!!!

In 4 years since the launch? U r kidding.

You are partly right. The end of the beginning is near. The beginning of the middle is starting and that is when it REALLY gets interesting!

Altcoin prices will only ever hang onto the coattails of BTC.
2394  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] CHNcoin (CNC) GiveAway thread - 10000 to give - 5 CNC each on: May 05, 2013, 10:36:42 AM
CLpXQGJ9Jk9XZ9y1wE7kYfPYm3Lk6XYBn9

Thanks for the coins, much appreciated!
2395  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-05 Bloomberg - Lenders May Create Bitcoin Rivals, Says NZ Bank Group on: May 05, 2013, 10:13:34 AM
Imagine the new pastime for bored members of Anonymous and LulzSec: 51% attacks on Bank-coins issued by various large banks.
Can't see any of them surviving without huge distributed systems comparable to that which Bitcoin has organically acquired.
2396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone noticed the parity between exchanges? on: May 05, 2013, 09:24:11 AM
It's a good sign that the bitcoin market is maturing . Arbitrageurs improve markets creating a more level playing field.

Bitcoin still needs its ISO code so that it can be supported by mainstream forex firms, like xe.com and oanda.
2397  Economy / Speculation / Re: Up to $180? on: May 05, 2013, 01:41:21 AM
Bitcoin will most likely collapse when mtgox starts allowing to trade LTC. LTC value will be higher than BTC.

Of all things that are going to happen, this is definitely not one of them.

Agreed. Every time you see an LTC price multiply it by 4x, because they are churned out so much faster.
I think LTC is having its own speculative boom reminiscent of BTC 2011.
2398  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 12:45:39 AM

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever. 

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!


Can someone explain this magic to me?

What is commonly overlooked is that a move from 100 to 200 is the same magnitude (percentage-wise) as a move from 100 to 50, i.e. a doubling in value is the opposite of a halving. Taking the square root of the change means that both directions are directly comparable.


Are you 'all in' then ?

yes. since $13

This 'magic' has won its place in the wall of fame of bold predictions.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.msg2031019#msg2031019

Excellent.  I would rather have this by my name than many other predictions, like the $1m per BTC!
2399  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 05, 2013, 12:14:17 AM
Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  Grin

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  Embarrassed

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

Smiley

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!
2400  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 04, 2013, 11:50:04 PM
What I don't understand is why we put ANY belief in the graphs.  First rule of investing is that past performance is NOT indicative of future performance (good or bad).

Bitcoin is not on a performance curve but an adoption curve (at least that's my belief).

When it reaches near saturation, it will about flatline at whatever price with minor fluctuations and probably a slowish upward climb due to fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation.

Exactly. And during the adoption curve exponential gains are inevitable until saturation is reached. This was seen with MSFT and AAPL in the early years.
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