Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

All i know is rpietila has fun. No matter what he is doing, at least he's taking the bull by the horns and doing something..

We need more people in the world like him.

Thank you for these kind words, sir.

But please remember that at times, 40% of this thread is metatalk about me, and the raison d'être of this thread is to observe the walls that the wallmasters set up. There are other threads available, if you want to discuss my fundamental research in an atmosphere of dignity, or contempt.

The latter thread, is shown as follows in my screen:

A: This user is currently ignored.

B: This user is currently ignored.

A: This user is currently ignored.

C: This user is currently ignored.

LOL someone has a massive ego. 

He might have one, but something I've learned (and read/recognized from J. Krishnamurti) is that we need to "See the truth in the false". In other words, everyone has something to say and there are true words coming from everyone - and quite often wise due to different lives, circumstances, experiences, etc. I'm not saying he is all truth or all false, but clearly he adds a lot to the talk. I listen to what everyone has to say. Sometimes we look for just a "professional" perspective with big words and all that, and then we miss the teacher on the street that goes under the radar. I'm not coming down on you either, just being slightly contrarian.  

[Awhut]

He might have one, but something I've learned (and read/recognized from J. Krishnamurti) is that we need to "See the truth in the false". In other words, everyone has something to say and there are true words coming from everyone - and quite often wise due to different lives, circumstances, experiences, etc. I'm not saying he is all truth or all false, but clearly he adds a lot to the talk. I listen to what everyone has to say. Sometimes we look for just a "professional" perspective with big words and all that, and then we miss the teacher on the street that goes under the radar. I'm not coming down on you either, just being slightly contrarian.  

+1

[arepo]

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago]

-===-



-===-

we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle.

these things are like magic

[Frozenlock]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

[jl2012]

Should we close this thread and make a new one again? It's getting too many pages again.....

[Awhut]

Should we close this thread and make a new one again? It's getting too many pages again.....

Bear propaganda. They want the value of this thread at 1

[arepo]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

[zby]

great rendering of the triangle that confirms my suspicions of an imminent correction/downward breakout.

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

[elux]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)

these things are like magic

Arepo: That does sound like magic.

[Awhut]

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

The way I see it the 266 crash is the dominent trend. Everything we have seen since then has been consolidation from that crash. TLDR It has more weight.

[Rampion]

I wake up and wallzilla is MIA. Anybody knows at which point he unloaded his coins? Maybe he was the one who sold 2k coins at $124?

[underground_]

I wake up and wallzilla is MIA. Anybody knows at which point he unloaded his coins? Maybe he was the one who sold 2k coins at $124?

He left after it passed $120.

[arepo]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)

these things are like magic

Arepo: That does sound like magic.

if that was difficult to parse, the idea is that the greater the number of points of contact, the more robust the trendline is. this is because, as frozen pointed out, any line at all can be drawn across one point, two points is enough to define an arbitrary unique line, but three points is a 'coincidence', or in statistics terms, a correlation.

i admit that the lines above only have 2 points of contact. the evidence for their robustness is in the price movement right now.

[Its About Sharing]

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago]

-===-



-===-

we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle.

these things are like magic

So, basically we are going to finish forming that triangle (going up and down a bit) but then breakout to the upside again, as the original trend was, before the drop (started the triangles formation)?

That I can believe though I'm not sure BTC is going to follow TA all that well due to it's anti-fragile & Black Swan nature 

[elux]

if that was difficult to parse, the idea is that the greater the number of points of contact, the more robust the trendline is.
this is because, as frozen pointed out, any line at all can be drawn across one point, two points is enough to define an arbitrary unique line, but three points is a 'coincidence', or in statistics terms, a correlation.

i admit that the lines above only have 2 points of contact. the evidence for their robustness is in the price movement right now.

Not difficult to parse. Only arbitrary.

The 260ies marked the on-trend inevitable climax (which had to happen somewhere, and happened to happen there) of of the trend, not an outlier of that trend.

Discarding the last, crucial day in favour of the day before (which was not an outlier? if so, why?) seems disingenous.

As Frozenlock points out:

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers.
we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.
...
as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

You are saying you can use any wick and/or candle, without your method providing guidance.

And proceed to arbitrarily discard any inconvenient data, after you've found a pattern you like.

It is this need to discard data you don't like for the pattern to hold that I find worrying.

[AmazonStuff]

Possible bearish divergence

[Rampion]

Volume ridiculously low for a Monday morning.

[Ares]

Volume ridiculously low for a Monday morning.

Good sign imo since the price is remaining over 120. Deposits into gox won't come through until tuesday

[Zaih]

I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

[samson]

I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's just multiple walls across a time range.