Emergency funds are not a part of your cashflow.  You seem to be talking about some kind of a float.  Emergency funds are something that you build up and then you likely never will have to touch.. ever..  they are usually something .like 3-6 months of your expenses, so if you lose your job or you get hit by a bus, but you are still living, you might have some expenses but unable to work for 3-6 months, but if you are managing your money well, you may well have other funds such as reserves and a float that you would use prior to even dipping into your emergency funds.  

Let me use the example that I used from the other thread:

If you have an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month, and most of the time you receive around $2,400, and you have expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then that is around $400 in disposable income, but surely it varies, so minimally you should likely be holding around $6,600 in cash to cover 3 months of your expenses.

yes you might have other money that is extra cash float or that you are holding in reserves for other purposes, maybe for buying on the dip or just for using when your income might be low.  You could spend 20-30 years or more never touching your emergency fund because if you have fluctuations in your cashflow, you would tap into your reserves and your float first, so hopefully you never get into a situation that you even need to touch your emergency fund.. because if you do, then shit is really hitting the fan at that point... and your situation has become more dire.. .. so in some sense if you are using your float and your reserves you can continue to buy BTC every week since buying BTC may well be a priority for anyone who is trying to build their stash... but whether they are able to build their BTC $50 per week or $100 per week or some other amount is going to vary on other ways that they are managing their cash, since it is good to be aggressive, but it is not good to put yourself into a situation that you don't have any money and you have to dip into your emergency fund.

another thing is that people who don't invest, might not even be in the practice of maintaining an emergency fund. ..and that might be part of the reason that they are poor and don't invest...because they are not managing their money well.. and so if someone is brand new to bitcoin and they do not have an emergency fund, they may well have to invest smaller amounts into BTC wheil they are building their emergency fund, and once the emergency fund gets up to 6 months then they can be more aggressive in their BTC investing.  

Another mistake that poor people make is to use their investment (BTC in this case) as their emergency fund.. and yeah, they are going to have fun staying poor, because you should not have to dip into your BTC ever, except upon a time that you have already chosen based on criteria that you had already set.. whether that is 1-2 cycles down the road or reaching some level or whatever that criteria might be.

This year we already had several new ATHs between $69k and $73,794, so are you waiting for more?

If you are merely waiting for a new ATH, then how are you going to know that it is enough?  and why would you necessarily hold your value in dollars rather than holding your value in bitcoin?

So there still can come questions in regards to whether you even accumulated enough BTC in order to start to be in a position to sell some of it.  Surely you are the best person to judge that, even though historically we have witnessed a lot of folks selling way too many BTC too soon, and even if they might have had gotten decent dollar profits out of the BTC that they sold, the crux of the matter was that they had not really acquired enough BTC in order to be selling as many BTC as they ended up selling, so personally, to me it seems problematic for people to be obsessed with selling if they have not even been in bitcoin for a full cycle, absent if they had been able to already accumulate a lot or somehow to have had been able to front load their investment.. but hey, whatever, each of us have our styles and if you want to try your luck at trading, maybe you will get lucky with that... and maybe you won't end up selling too much too soon and maybe the BTC price will dip so that you can buy back more than you sold or whatever it is that you are wanting to do with your BTC once you sell them.. buy a car?  Go on a trip?

So yeah, if you started accumulating bitcoin at around the time of your forum registration, which is late 2021, sure it is possible that you could have had accumulated enough BTC, since your forum registration date matches up with my own history in which I got into bitcoin at the top of the 2013 price run.. so that would have had been 8 years earlier.. so yeah, I had only accumulated through 2014 and more  than half of 2015, so I had already created a selling strategy for myself in around mid 2015 that I started to employ at around $250.. and it was based on some formulas in terms of just selling from my profits, so as the price went up I could sell up to 10% of my holdings every time the price doubled (and in the beginning I could only use the portion of my BTC that was in profits, but by the time the BTC price got into above $500, most of my holdings were already in profits, so I could use the formula for all of my holdings.. .. so think about it if I had 10 bitcoin and the BTC price was $500, so they would be worth $5,000, and so if the price went up to $1k, I would be able to sell up to 1 BTC, but I think that I never ended up selling the full 10% authorized amount.. so then there is another question regarding what is the accumulation level, so if I had a total investment portfolio of $50k and then 10% was in bitcoin, but then if the BTC  price doubled, then all of a sudden due to BTC's price doubling, then 20% of my investment portfolio was in bitcoin, so my point is that there are way us that you can figure out some formulas, but I think that you have to get to a state of over accumulation, and you don't necessarily sell to buy back but sell based on taking some of your BTC off the table because you have enough or you have too much.... and you can figure out your own rationalization for why you might sell without having more than a whole cycle accumulating.. unless somehow you had been able to overly accumulate. within your own definition of what overaccumulation might be (if there is such a thing?).


Some people cannot resist and they want to trade and/or to get involved in shitcoins, so if they can at least limit the amount that they trade and/or get involved in shitcoins, then they would likely be in a better position than if they did not have any limits on how much they would be trading/shitcoining.  But yeah, sometimes there is no real way from stopping people from doing what they want, so they might believe that they have been able to identify some kind of a winning system or a winning shitcoin.. . .but sometimes it is just a "feeling" rather than really being sufficiently thought through.

By the way, it does not make a whole lot of sense to me to focus very much in regards to what others might be doing, even though surely in the various threads of this forum we are interacting with others, but we still have to figure out our own plans and sometimes interact with others in terms of of comparing our plans, so there could be some hypothetical persons who have been in bitcoin for only a couple of years or maybe 2.5 years but still able to pretty much front load their bitcoin investment - especially since we had a pretty long period of bitcoin dippening between more or less June 2022 through October 2023.. so that time period could have had allowed for a decent amount of BTC accumulating, even though surely the periods that we were below $20k would have been the better time periods, even though I know that in reality it might not always be possible to really stock up on bitcoin during the best of times.. because sometimes any of us can have our own limitations in regards to either how much cash we are able to get for buying bitcoin and we may not even consider it to invest into bitcoin more than a certain amount of value, and I even found myself in those kinds of dilemmas in late 2014, when I was actually considering if I might want to convert some of the allocations that I had in other investments into bitcoin, which I mostly ended up rejecting under the conclusion that I felt that I already had enough BTC.


Yes a lot of folks are tempted by trading, and so of course, they are free to do what they like and sometimes the amounts that they are selling and making profits in dollars are not really even very much, but some folks want to spend their time in that kind  of a practice rather than just continuing to buy bitcoin over a whole cycle or more. .and then maybe reassessing their situation after they have spent some time building up a BTC stash.. if they have built up a BTC stash buy just engaging in various forms of buying (lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), then they likely will be more informed about what to do and/or how much capital they might want to put into trading rather than just staying in a practice of investing.


Sure you can decide how much BTC you are going to buy based on when you are paid, yet surely you have to figure out your various bills too.  So maybe you have some monthly bills and some weekly bills and so you have various expenses coming due at different times and you also have your income coming in at various times too. 

I personally like the idea of beginners investing every singles week, and sure there could be ways to set the buys up automatically, or they can just manually buy each week.  So for example, if they have an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month,  and most of the time they receive around $2,400, and they have expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then they may well be in a position that they could plan to buy $100 in bitcoin per week, but they also have to have emergency funds, reserve funds and a float, so that they are able to continue to buy bitcoin weekly even if sometimes their pay might be lower than average and if their expenses might be more than expected from time to time... so yeah, it can take a bit of time to put systems in place so that you are in charge of your own DCA amount, but then also having enough of a financial cushion so that you can do what you want in terms of sometimes buying extra.. or maybe having something like a side fund that is set aside that allows you to do $50 per week no matter what, even if there might be some months that you have low income.

Technically you should not be using emergency funds to buy dips.. but you can use reserve funds.  Yeah of course people call these things different things, but the idea of emergency funds is to have money to live and to pay for your expense if an actual emergency takes place or if you lose your income for some reason, you have a little bit of breathing space.

Reserve funds would be extra money, so you should never dip into your emergency funds for anything other than needing to live because you ran out of other money.

In my particular case in 2014 I had been buying all year long and the price dropped from $1k all the way down to the $300s, and then in January 2015, there was an extra drop and then the BTC price pretty much stayed in the mid $200s until about October 2015, but I was already running out of money in January and I had some other business related complications that happened in early 2015 in which some of my cashflow was jeopardized for several months - and so I was not able to buy bitcoin for a few months - even though BTC was relatively cheap then, but whenever I was able to get some extra money come in, then I would use half of it to buy bitcoin at whatever the price was and then the other half I had to put into my account for the expenses of the business that I had at that time.

So by the middle of 2015 I started to have a bit or normalization return to my cashflow, but then at the same time the BTC price started to slowly go back up at the end of 2015 - even though the BTC price got caught in an area of about $400-ish for nearly 6 months between November 2015 until May 2016... but my own cashflow was beginning to normalize again in 2016, and so it is a bit ironic how sometimes the cashflow problems can also happen at the same time that the BTC price is at its lowest, which was the situation for a large part of 2015.

There can be long periods in which you might not be sure if you should spend your extra cash to buy more bitcoin or to just sit it out, especially if you might feel that you have enough bitcoin, but there still can be some temptation to buy more when the prices are quite a bit below your average costs.. so it can be a bit of a dilemma...and seem to take quite a bit of time to play out, like you suggested.


There are frequently uncertainties in bitcoin; however, the kinds of uncertainties are changing with the passage of time. and so even there are uncertainties today with various attacks on self-custody..


Sure bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting any weaker, even if some of the upside potential is not as much, but similar things were being said in 2017 when BTC went from $1k to $19,666, and a remember a lot of folks pumping shitcoins and saying that bitcoin did not have any more upside potential, so people should be buying more shitcoins in order to get upside potential, but the fact of the matter is that bitcoin actually ended up pumping around 78x in those 2 years from late 2015 to late 2017, so I see no reason for anyone to feel that they need to be more greedy than that, and surely the price corrected back down into the $3ks, but surely spent a lot of time in 2018-2020 between around $6k and $10k... before stepping up to higher plateaus, including our current level of supposed uncertainties.

Surely many of us likely realize that bitcoin has an ability to get around 1,000x gold's market cap, even though currently it is about 1/10th of gold's market cap... and so in that regard, bitcoin still has a lot of upside potential, even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to reach its upside potential, and so many of the current newbie entrants are investing in mch shorter timelines that likely want to know if bitcoin is a good investment in the next 5 to 10 to 20 to 30 years.  So our actual personal investment timelines would be considering wanting to profit within our own life times rather than needing to wait for longer term macro aspects to play out.. and in that regard, there are still some folks who are attempting to front run bitcoin and get their own bitcoin prior to the masses of the population coming into bitcoin, which truly should be an advantage for any of the normies who already know about bitcoin and who are investing into it, as compared to folks who might not really now about it and are not actually taking action to invest into it, even if they do know some things about it.

So yeah.. no one knows, and you have to figure out your own allocation level that is comfortable for your level of balancing out your life circumstances.

You seem to be presuming that this is ONLY a temporary condition?..

I mean we had a pump towards the end of last week that continued through the weekend, and sure we are not back to the location in which the pump started (maybe around $59,500-ish), but we are close to the same place we were at the start of the weekend.. upper $62ks-ish..

I am getting the sense that there is nothing much to see here... but maybe it is just me?

By the way, I was starting to potentially get a little aroused that we might have gotten towards the beginning of the noman's land, which I still think is around $55k- even though some folks think it is in the lower $50ks - and I am neither impressed with those ideas nor the idea that lower $50ks need to be revisited.. yet playing around with the lower to mid $60ks seems like a BIG nothing burger, and sure currently all of our top 100 weighted average days have to be in the $60ks in order to get added to the table...

- $60,481 as of today to be exact.. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.msg64037901#msg64037901

Perhaps in 5 days all of the sub $61k prices are going to be removed from that top 100 table...

Sometimes the creation of higher prices on the table takes time to play out..  We still have a 2021 date in that table that is as high as 26th place, which is $67,483.. so it could take a while to get that one off of the table.. 75 days minimum.. and probably a while longer than that the way these price actions seem to be going, and I don't know if BTC's price failure/refusal to go up action is being exacerbated based on so many seemingly ongoing attacks on self-custody, which many of us already realize to be quite a bit of the raison d'etre regarding bitcoin even having a value proposition.

We have the pushup challenge going on... You could start out with 30 per day..  3 sets of 10 or some other manageable way of getting in some exercise as we are planning for $100k (as an intermediary bump in the road to higher BTC price statuses)

100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge


It is not really in unusual territories, and it is currently going up at about a pace of 42% annualized (about $40 per day currently)... That is neither outrageous nor whimpy.. .... and yeah also currently the spot price is right around 85% higher than the 200-WMA.    You can see current or historical dates for the 200-WMA as compared to the BTC spot price here : https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Of course, over the years, there have been various spikes of the BTC spot price below the 200-WMA that were short-lived, yet the period of June 2022 to October 2023 had several times in which the BTC price was quite a bit below the 200-WMA, yet the 200-WMA did continue to move up during that period at an annual rate of about 20%.  You can look at the specific differences between the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA on any particular date at this website.


I am just providing my own base case scenario, so of course, I would not suggest that my base case scenario is anywhere close to guaranteed, but I am thinking that the base case scenario of the BTC spot price staying above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months is the most likely out of any of the possible scenarios based on facts currently known... ... and sure of course price trends can change suddenly and maybe even for little to no reason, and also there can be irrational spikes and black swan events that end up invalidating the base case scenario that I am currently anticipating.

My fuck you status chart also lists the historical 200-WMA's in 6 month increments, and I am anticipating to update that chart in early June, so currently, the 200-WMA is out performing my anticipated 16% (32% annualized) performance by 5% (10% annualized), is it appears that we are going to experience close to a 21% (42% annualized) increase in the 200-WMA by May 31st.....   You can also see that in that fuck you status chart, I attempt to project out the increase in the 200-WMA until 2074 - and surely I am projecting out a diminishing rate of increase, yet with anything related to the future, there can be factors that contribute towards the results playing out differently from the projection... including ongoing concerns that many of us might have in the direction of the various ongoing attacks related to bitcoin self-custody.. .which from my perspective is likely to create a lot of scoff law and underground operations - which would not be so bullish in regards to bitcoin's short-to-medium term price.

Cited for viewability.. ... .

You (@As-Soon-As) might want to make some of your own comments and analysis in reference to your posts rather than just posting information from twitter or whatever other sources you have been posting in your recent posts...

A somewhat personal question:  Are you a bot?  Are do you have any actual ideas that come from a live and breathing person?  one bot asking another


Gosh!!!!!!!!!!  That escalated quickly.

I was going to ask whether a hat was going to be included... but now, I feel that would be too "nice" of a question.

You have a weird way of describing DCA, which causes me to consider that maybe you might not really understand the advantages of employing DCA versus using some other method of buying BTC.

DCA does not give you the lowest possible BTC price, but it does allow you to manage your own finances, and to buy BTC aggressively within your own budget, so yeah if the price happens to dip then you are buying more BTC with the same dollars and if it goes up your are buying fewer BTC with the same dollars.

However, with DCA you may well end up with higher costs per BTC, but you can structure so that you can continue to accumulate no matter what.

Largely following a strict DCA approach is price agnostic and yet there is a presumption with DCA that the BTC price is ultimately going to go higher than your average costs per BTC, so you likely will end up in profits so long as the general price trend of bitcoin is upwards.. so sometimes it coudl take several years before your BTC holdings are actually in profits in terms of dollars, but continuing to employ DCA allows you to continue to build you BTC stash no matter the price of the BTC and so in some sense there is not even a focus on how much is your average price per BTC, even though it does not hurt to keep track of your average cost per BTC, but your average cost per BTC would likely be less important than the fact that your employment of DCA would allow continued, ongong and persistent stacking of sats..

Fair enough in regards to the further explanation in regards to the various things that earlier adopters might have done, and surely there has been a decent amount of variance, and yeah some may have sold too many too soon, and others may have just sold portions of their stack. Some may have had conviction from the beginning and others developed their conviction later, and surely it would be difficult to characterize in general kinds of ways, since there surely have been some folks who might have had approached BTC in similar ways as me, and surely there are differences in the financial circumstances of folks and even their technical knowledge, and including considering details of their 9 individual factors, too.

By the way, I am claiming that my average cost per BTC is right around $1k, so yeah, I bought bitcoin cheaper and more expensive than that.  I think that the lowest that I bought BTC was around $182.. but surely I did not buy very much because I had run out of money, and really when the BTC is dipping that low, sometimes we will run out of money, and I ran out of money for a lot of 2015 during the time that the BTC prices were in the $200s, and surely I have some purchases in the $200s, but really there sometimes can be difficulties buying when the BTC price is so low, especially if you already have a bunch of BTC and your costs happen to be way higher than the then current price. 

Also, I made several mistakes along the way, which I expect others to have had made some mistakes along the way too, whether they are earlier adopters or not.. and the concept of early adopter is surely a relative term, since it is likely that anyone getting in below $1k will be considered an early adopter to some, and anyone getting in below $10k will also be considered an early adopter to others. .maybe a bit later down the road, even though newbies to bitcoin likely realize that it is quite unlikely that either sub $10k or even sub 20k or $30k will ever be reached again.. Surely the lower the price, the more confidence that we might have that such prices are not likely to ever be reached again (absent some breaking of bitcoin).

Since we are still likely less than 1% of the world's population into bitcoin, is it is likely in the next 4-years or even less that we might be able to develop some confidence that sub $100k will never be reached again.. Surely, we cannot really know, but it does seem prudent that folks figure out some kind of an allocation into bitcoin so that they have some of it and are able to build their holdings of it, even if the amount that they are building is not very large in quantity.

By the way, there are some later adopters who have quite a bit more BTC than earlier adopters, and sure the odds are against them, and sure their costs per BTC are way higher than the earlier adopters, but still some of the later adopters are able to put themselves into a better position in terms of their BTC position, even though it ended up costing them a lot more to build their BTC stash... so a guy who bought 5 BTC for an average price of around $10k per BTC is likely better off than the guy who bought 2 BTC for an average cost of around $1k, and there are a lot of variations of those kinds of examples where later adopters who are more aggressive persistent and organized might end up putting themselves into a better place than some of the early adopters who are more whimpy, hesitant and perhaps engaging in some bad practices (trading, consumption and/or distracted into shitcoins) that did not emphasize BTC accumulation.


You don't know that, especially since you do not know the future... maybe you could say that gravity will still exist, but you cannot even sayt hat the sun will still come up in the east and set in the west in 3-4 years.


Past price performance does not guarantee future results.


Even if it does not seem right, it is right.. there is no guarantee, even if you might assign high probability towards profits being present in 3-4 years... that high probability still is not a guarantee.


The investment thesis in bitcoin is strong enough that a long time frame should be something that someone should be able to commit to.. .and figure out an allocation size that is appropriate towards his being able to hold for the long term (and perhaps continue to buy too.. until he reaches his own accumulation goal.. which also might be a bit of a moving target).


Even if you might end up being correct that BTC is "in profits" 3-4 years down the road, your way of thinking is likely to get you into trouble.. but hey you can think how you like, but you are sharing incorrect information if you proclaiming that profits in bitcoin are guaranteed..,. and hopefully no one believes you. .and people who listen to you might consider that you don't have a lot of credibility because you talk in terms of absolutes... but surely there are some people who might be dumb enough to believe you, but probably a lot of folks will consider you a looney if you talk like that.

There are likely better ways to frame the matter without having to talk in terms of absolutes, but if your brain is broken, you might not even be capable of understanding anything other than absolutes.

By the way, when we talk about the past, frequently we can talk about absolutes because it already happened, even though sometimes people will disagree about what happened in the past.  Once the future turns into the past, then it could be described in absolutes, but even with the future there are a lot of variables, and sometimes low probability scenarios end up playing out, but once the low probability scenario plays out, that scenario ends up becoming 100%, even though it might have been predicted as a long shot or even hardly likely to happen.

There is nothing wrong with conducting ones life with expectations of what are more likely scenarios to play out, but surely we know that more likely scenarios frequently do not end up playing out, even if they had been reasonably considered to have had been the more likely scenario. Sometimes the playing out of a minority scenario will end up affecting future possibilities, and sometimes the minor scenarios end up being inconsequential in terms of their connection to other systems in life, whether we are talking about something in nature on a small scale or maybe some human interaction systems such as politics and economics and markets.. or some human interactions are very local in nature and others are more global, but sometimes local events will also effect global events... and some of the events are within predictable parameters and other times, some kinds of things come out of the blue and they end up affecting other systems.

Of course, bitcoin touches upon a lot of systems, and has potential to touch upon a lot of systems, which is one of the important things in terms of learning about bitcoin, and witnessing the varying ways that it continues to exist with various kinds of ongoing adoption, but also with various kinds of ongoing battles amongst folks who are trying to debilitate it in various ways and/or create limits upon how it can be used.

Even if a newbie increases his income, the problem of buying right away (in a DCA) versus holding some value in reserves for buying on dips is not automatically resolved merely because of such increased income, and it seems that the problem of having money to buy dips is more likely to be resolved by feeling like you have already been accumulating enough BTC and you are able to hold some extra money in reserves for buying on dips....

Another practice that would justify holding back money for buying on the dip would be if you might have already invested a large amount at any given price point (such as using a lump sum), and then therefore you might hold some money in reserves in order to buy the dip, but since you had already invested a decent amount, it is not like you are prejudiced by holding some value back for buying on the dip.

Part of the definition of discretionary income is having discretion regarding where to put that money as it comes in and if the discretionary income amount is increasing by either receiving greater income or cutting expenses, then there still will be decisions in regards to where to put such increased discretionary income amounts of money as it comes in and whether to keep some in reserves for buying BTC on dips or to just buy BTC in a way that is more or less as soon as the extra money comes available which would be considered to be within DCA practices.

I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions because if someone does increase his discretionary income, he still is faced with needs to have to decide whether to buy BTC right away with that increased income or to hold some of that extra income back for buying on dips - not necessarily easy or obvious choices.. yet each of us are making these kinds of balances on a regular basis involving how much BTC we believe that we are ready, willing and able to accumulate and in which ways we are going to carry out such BTC accumulations as our income/expenses might change from time to time, the size of our investment into BTC would presumably be growing with the passage of time, but also the value of our BTC holdings will also be changing (including the price in which we are able to buy more of it, if that is what we want to do).


I doubt that your numbers for traders versus investors are correct with any level of precision (in other words you are making up numbers to make your claims sound good, even if your numbers might have some truth to them), yet even if we agree that a lot of people treat bitcoin as a trade rather than as an investment, I doubt that it is a good idea to promote such dumbness as if it is a good thing to do, especially since many of us already recognize and appreciate that bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best investment available to anyone on a world-wide basis, so if you happen to know that kind of information, then why would it be a good idea to encourage trading it (or gambling with it, rather than more sound practices), merely because potentially a lot of folks are doing that.  Pretty weak logic there Hamza2424.

Another thing, there may well be a lot of people who have little to no disposable income (and I agree that is the case), so those people who are using their money to buy bitcoin (when it is beyond their disposable income - because they need such money to live) are therefore gambling with their money rather than investing, and surely there could be ways that they could figure out ways to reduce the amount that they put into bitcoin in order to be able to hang onto it longer which would turn their buying of bitcoin into an investment rather than a trade.. rather than attempting to play the wave that is likely not going to get them anywhere in life.. ..  It is like playing the lottery.  Yes, I know a lot of people do it, but it is not a good place to put your money, so it does not make any sense to be promoting such systems - especially on an individual level, even though people seem to love to do it.

When they put the money that they need into bitcoin and hope to cash out with dollar profits within a cycle, they may well be attempting to play 1-2 years.. and yeah, maybe they will get lucky with that approach and maybe they won't.. and yeah.. maybe if there already exist ways that they are able to set aside that money for 1-2 years, then there would be possibilities for them to choose a different amount (perhaps a smaller amount), in order to set it aside longer, such as 4-10 years or longer, and 4 years is surely on the lower end that would ONLY apply to people with short timelines, and most people should be shooting for way longer than 4 years, otherwise they are still not really investing.

If they were to figure out what it means to invest, then they may be able to figure out how to do such a thing for 4-10 years or longer rather than 1-2 years or some other short timeline trying to play the wave.. ... but yeah it well still it probably would be better if they figured out an amount that they are able to put away for longer than 1-2 years and not worry about it for 4-10 years or longer.  There may well be some mindset involved in this rather than any kind of specific inabilities to develop better practices (even though yeah a lot of the world is desperate, yet they likely are not going to improve their situation by trading and gambling with bitcoin rather than figuring out some way to carry out investments, even if their investment amounts happen to not be a lot of money.. but still setting it aside for 4-10 years or longer.

And personally, you can do what you want, but I am not going to encourage trading/gambling rather than investing in bitcoin - even if perhaps a lot of people engage in such bad habits, as you proclaim.

So yeah, just because a lot of people trade and/or gamble with bitcoin and you seem to want to promote those ideas, that does not mean that it is good to promote such ideas as if they were the right thing to do.. You can do what you like, and I will continue to say that it is a bad idea to talk about bitcoin that way, even if a lot of people do it.

And this line of discussion reminds me of an earlier conversation that we had.  Weren't you the one who was trying to defend the idea to refer to bitcoin as crypto because a lot of people (everyone else) do(es) it?  That is dumb logic, and surely I could be getting you mixed up with someone else, but it seems that we had that kind of conversation in the past in which you were also using vague language such as crypto to also include bitcoin and suggesting that it is a good idea talk about bitcoin like that because everyone else does it..  

Poor you to have such lackenings in your abilities to focus.. and you are getting caught up in the fault of logic that involves what everyone else is doing to guide you in your own thinking and/or actions, again presuming that I am not mixing you up with another forum member.


It is good to provide sources for those kinds of assertions, and like you said, it might not be an accurate assessment, but at least if you show the source, then any of us would be able to look into it further.


You will likely do much better if you have some kind of a long term plan in regards to bitcoin, and sure if you cannot resist but to gamble and/or trade with you bitcoin, make sure that you are not gambling/trading with more than 10% of your bitcoin - while at the same time, don't be cheating by continuing to dip into your main stash of bitcoin when you are losing the 10% that you are fucking around with.  There are ways to discipline yourself with limits but also to potentially still gamble/trade within such limits.

Yep.. Dailyscript brought down the team's average pushups per day below 100..   There is some kind of an error in Dailyscript's most recent report  - 3.99 pushups per day for 100 days, surely is bringing down the average number of push-ups per day for the rest of us...

Edit: By the way, after looking at Dailyscript's prior entry in the table, he had 3 days and 299 pushups, so I think that in his latest report, he had likely meant to say in his report 4 days and 399 pushups... another thing to do in order to help to preserve the pushup numbers for the rest of us (take one for the team) could be to eliminate his name from the pushups table since substantively it does not meet the 10 pushups per day requirement.


If you think about it, in terms of percentages, $100k is not very much different from our current price.. it is right around 57% higher than $63,800.

And, if we measure from our already reached ATH of $73,794 then it is less than 36% higher than that.. so yeah, even though we are doing these pushups for funzies and using $100k as a target, the target is not even really very unreachable, even if we were to compare the prices from the earliest days of this push-up challenge, and let's say we started right around $43k.. so then that give us about a 133% increase from that starting point, and in traditional investing that would be BIG, but in bitcoin those are not so impossible to witness those levels of price increases.

Right around 4 years ago, we were somewhat struggling to get back above $10k, and look at us now, 6x higher and still a lot of ongoing and persistent upward pressures on BTC prices - in spite the many recent ongoing attacks on self-custody... .. remember self-custody is what actually gives bitcoin power, so even the big player financial institutions are going to lose the upwards price pressures on their financial products if various players were to actually be successful in neutering BTC's self-custody attributes - and yeah maybe that is what they want, to turn bitcoin into some kind of a neutered and controlled product - which likely is not going to help anyone in terms of the debt-ladened mess in which the current financial system finds itself... so are some of these BIG players considering that they can still have the sound money aspects of bitcoin (in it's limited supply) without retaining the self-sovereignty aspects of self-custody... and I am not sure how possible it would be able to attempt to selectively neuter aspect of bitcoin and still allow bitcoin to retain meaningful power.. like a different kind of bitcoin is being pushed for, but it is just a battle that likely has to continue to play out.. and see where it goes.. while in the meantime hopefully many of us are figuring out ways to self-custody some decent quantities of our total stash.

this report hardly makes any sense.

You have been doing pushups for 100 days (starting before this thread started), and so you have an average of 39.9 pushups per day?

Something is surely wrong with your report.


For sure, push ups are not easy, and we are not going to naturally be able to do a lot of them or even to keep up with numbers that we did previously unless we are specifically doing push-ups as an exercise or some similar kinds of resistance training exercises that exercise the upper body muscles.

Of course, if we are staring to get older or maybe we are otherwise not a very athletic person, then we also might have declines in our abilities to do pushups, but even younger folks should have greater abilities to build back their muscle than older folks, absent some specific medical condition.   

I am pretty sure that there had been articles presented in this thread earlier about regular folks starting to lose their muscle mass starting in their mid-30s unless there are active measures to try to retain such muscle mass.


If you are in as bad of a shape that you claim to be in, then start with something between 5-10 pushups and three sets per day.. and then work your way up to 10 pushups and 5 sets a day.. and that could take you a couple of months to get there.. but try to do at least three sets per day, and it would be better if you are able to do 10 pushups in each of your sets.

Another possibility, if it is too difficult to do full pushups, then do modified pushups from your knees or perhaps pushing against the wall or some other way of having your feet lower than your upper body with a goal of getting to a point that you could do 10 full pushups per set and 3-5 sets per day.

Of course you can move your goals upward or downwardly in order to account for the amount of tiredness and/or muscle/joint pains you are feeling.

I still feel quite a few pains, but they are not as lingering as they were in the beginning.  In the beginning (especially after a couple of weeks), my pains pretty much lasted all day long and I was continuously tired from the extra efforts of the pushups, and so even though I still have soreness and overall tiredness, it has gotten better - especially included that physically I am more capable to do more pushups (and consistently so) than I was able to do in earlier times.

I am not totally better.. but surely there are several areas of noticeable improvement in physique, strength and just overall feeling s of being able to exert myself with confidence.


Of course, women do not need to do modified pushups.  It will depend on her own goals and abilities, so she can choose if she wants to do full pushups or modified pushups (or even a combination of them)..

To me, it does seem that full pushups put more pressure on holding the full core.... and I would not presume that a woman who comes to this thread, admits she is a woman, says that she wants to do pushups is going to want to actually do modified pushups.. but yeah, maybe I am presuming too much because surely there are some women who might purposefully do the easier version of pushups because they purposefully prefer to try to tone their upper body rather than wanting to build upper body muscles - like  guys might want to try to do.. ...

---

Regarding my own report, I had another day (yesterday) of less than 5 sets in the day, and I was in the middle of some social things around the time that I was supposed to do my 5th set of the day, and I was thinking about doing my last set, but I just could not bring myself to do that set (so I only got in 4 sets for yesterday)..

Even though the days of my carrying out fewer sets ended up with lower quantities of pushups, that result has been putting more pressure on me regarding to whether I will reach an average of 200 pushups per day in the next 9 days (by my 100th pushup day). 

Nonetheless, I still seem to be on schedule..

With 2,085 more pushups needed to reach 20k pushups, I just need to do on average of at least 231.67 per day in the next 9 days in order to reach my target of having had done 20k pushups by day 100..

Anyhow here's my report, and I already did all 5 of my sets for today.

100k,JayJuanGee,91,17915,2024-05-05

That sounds like a trader speaking, and we should not presume that people who buy bitcoin are traders.

There are a lot of us why specifically recommend not to trade bitcoin, but instead to long term invest it, so in that sense, you do not have to focus much on selling it or when you sell it, until after you have accumulated enough and perhaps been in it for a long enough time.. so then the decisions about when and how to sell could well come later, even 10, 20 or 30 years after being in it...

Yet, of course, it would be difficult to suggest that anyone buying bitcoin for 10, 20 or 30 years not think about selling at all, since the selling kinds of considerations would likely have to do with the person's situation in terms of how aggressively or whimpily he might have been accumulating BTC in light of his own financial and/or psychological circumstances.


Surely there is nothing wrong with buying on dips, but a person who has a tight budget might not really be in a situation to change the amount of his weekly-ish investment into bitcoin, so he might well be buying at any price until he works up a bitcoin holding that he believes is enough or more than enough.

I have not yet seen anything about 47k BTC being accumulated, but yeah, surely in these times, it is may well be easier to NOT to be surprised various kinds of ongoing buying pressures.

Of course, there are face to face transactions that are more difficult to stop, yet still there are challenges of bitcoiners getting to know each other, whether it would be the creation of meetups, and surely some communication channels, like Nostr are attempting to make it possible to communicate without having third party intermediaries.  Even though I don't disagree with you about some needs for decentralized exchanges, I doubt that a main solution would be decentralized exchanges when there are also a variety of ways to attempt  to interact with people directly.. which yeah is a way of sort of saying the same thing. .communication channels in which no one can interfere.. and sometimes that can be merely to get connected in order to meet in person, and if people want bitcoin for providing goods and services, then those kinds of channels can be helpful towards bitcoiners too.

For sure, it takes fewer and fewer bitcoin in order to have a significant amount.. so in my fuck you status chart, you can see that in order to reach fuck you status, the quantity of bitcoin in order to reach entry-level fuck you status has been going way down from how many coins were needed in earlier years.


Part of the problem for folks who might choose not to buy, even when the BTC price is at a seemingly high place, is that they cannot know that the BTC price is going to either stay flat or to correct back down from the seemingly high priced place in which they consider entering the market.  So, in that sense, the only way to prepare for further up is to buy some... and so if there might be some concerned about the price being high, then maybe there would be some reservations in regards to how much bitcoin would be bought at such seemingly higher prices.

No one is really going to know the answer, even though it may well start to seem as if some price levels are less sustainable than others, someone with no coin or low coins might still consider some advantages in buying those seemingly higher prices while another person who might have come close to reaching his accumulation level or has reached his accumulation level or has exceeded his accumulation level, might feel some justification in waiting rather than buying (which could translate into keeping the extra value in cash or perhaps putting the value in some other asset).

I think that part of the point is that we have a pretty good idea that BTC is going to be volatile, yet we cannot know exactly how much in either direction, while at the same time, we have some fairly strong senses that the price is going to be going up over the long run, while not being completely sure about that, how much it will go up or even how long it will take to go up.


Probably the more important part is the ongoing management of one's own cashflow... and yes within that there can be concerns about how aggressive the person is able to be in terms of ongoing bitcoin accumulation.


That sounds right.


When comparing to one's self, there can be various scenarios that are considered in terms of both projecting forward but also looking back, so surely there can be assessments regarding the level of aggressiveness, or how organized a person is in his finances or even assessment  of various mistakes that were made.. so one side and the other side (or variations) can be compared in each of these kinds of scenarios.


Sometimes when the BTC price dips, we just do not know if it is going to recover or not, or if we might be beginning a longer correction cycle or even a bear market.

Sure the four-year cycle and even things that are going on in the world (whether it is ETF approvals and/or government attacks on BTC) give us some guideline and some historical references, but none of those things guarantee price direction.. yet I am overall in agreement with you in terms of some value in buying on dips, especially for guys who are in a stage of their BTC accumulation that might be other than pure DCA strategies. .., which in other words, DCA is likely going to continue to work best for most newbies who are still building their BTC stash and who might be within the first 4 years or so of their BTC accumulation (and who might not have had been able to significantly front load their BTC investment).  Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with employing a combination of strategies...

 

So far in bitcoin's history, it has ONLY gone down below the 200-WMA the one time (between June 2022 and October 2023), at least for sustainable periods of time, so there surely may well be quite a bit of value to buy all the way down, because you cannot really know how far the BTC price is going to correct back down or how close it might get to the 200-WMA or if it might go below the 200-WMA again.

My tentative current expectation is that the BTC price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months or so, and sure I could be wrong in that expectation, but that is currently how I am considering the matter, absent some facts changing, and there have been so many times that I have been wrong in various tentative expectations that I have in regards to bitcoin's price movement - and so in that sense I don't make any kinds of meaningful changes in my own strategies, and/or BIG bets based on various tentative expectations that I form from time to time. 

   

Of course, no problem with that.  Each of us should be attempting to strike a balance that is sufficiently comfortable.


Some of them legally cannot do it.. They absolutely cannot buy bitcoin and hold it themselves, so the ETFs provide vehicles for them to get in, and there is almost no way that they were going to set of their own third-party custodian situation in order to achieve some level of bitcoin price exposure, since that is what they seem to want to achieve.. They are not concerned about being able to directly experience the various powers that come from self-custody - even though surely some individuals will end up learning about bitcoin based on their institutions getting involved in the ETF, and some of them will choose to get involved in bitcoin self-custody - in spite of various ways that self-custody seems to be under-attack in recent times.


I don't really object to your idea of buying below $100 as a kind of early adopter status, yet earlier adopter status is on a kind of spectrum with a lot of differing levels of early adopter, since if you think about it, even those various early adopter who bought a decent number of BTC below $100, they likely also got into bitcoin at various prices along the way and maybe also sold too much too soon, so they might have spent some time reacquiring some of the bitcoin that they sold.  

So, it can be a bit problematic to attempt to describe anyone in terms of locking in some kind of early adopter price.

There may be some real world feasibility for any of us to consider in regards to various costs of our BTC, since we might have certain amounts of bitcoin at various costs, and then we also have our overall average cost per BTC, and depending upon what we are calculating, we might use different calculations in order to either justify differing actions or to tell different stories about our BTC stash and aspects of our bitcoin journey. which can have real world results in terms of how many BTC we might be choosing to sell later down the road, and then how to calculate it.


Regarding your last sentence, I think that one of the most important things with bitcoin is to get started, so sure it is important to figure out your finances, but it still seems that the message should be to get started rather than suggesting that there might be complications in regards to having to learn things first.

Even though I know that there are some folks who are completely fucked up in terms of their organization skills and they have also gotten themselves in to various pickles in regards to how they manage their finances, and there are a lot of people who gamble in the way that they manage their money.  At the same, time I would like to presume that an overwhelming majority of folks have enough of an assessment of their cashflow to figure out if they have $10 or $100 per week or some other reasonable quantity that they can get started investing into bitcoin right away without putting themselves into worse finances than they might already be.

The mere organization of finances and also and putting together various budgeting matters is likely going to make a lot of people more rich - even though the more richness might not happen right away, but perhaps just over 3-4 years, a person who organizes their finances (which may or may not include putting some of that into bitcoin) is likely going to feel richer, and of course, having a stake in bitcoin seems quite likely to even put them in a greater position of actually being better off (even though there are no guarantees of such).


You make several good points Lidger - yet you deviate in a couple of regards - especially in the sentence that I bolded above.

1) sure no problem with planning, but it does not need to be accomplished prior to investing into bitcoin.. it can be done simultaneously

and

2) Fuck shitcoins and talking about the right coin.... that is misleading 1st because we are not talking about shitcoins in this thread and second because shitcoins are likely not investing, a waste of time and if you actually cannot resist the temptation to buy shitcoins, then limit the amount to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment size, without cheating in regards to allowing shitcoin suck value from your portfolio.


I am not really against anything that you said, yet I would like to say that there can be levels of BTC accumulation that is enough and/or too much, so then once you feel that you have too much BTC, then you can figure out ways to sell some of it without feeling guilty about shaving some off here and there.  And, for sure, I am not suggesting that anyone should be selling large portions of his BTC stash.  

Even though there can be some accounting difficulties in spending BTC, I am not really against the idea of using bitcoin for transactions, especially in a sell and replace way, even if you might not really make any money in engaging in such conduct,, but surely if businesses support bitcoin transactions, that should help to inspire any of us bitcoiners to want to use their services, when it seems somewhat reasonable for us to do so.. which would be spend and replace.,. but yeah, I understand that sometimes there can be extra transactional obstacles that discourage spending and replacing kinds of activities.

Let's say that you have a bunch of UTXOs that are $10 or less.. I am not sure how you would have very many UTXOs smaller than $10 because the BTC price has gone up quite a bit, so even if you were receiving transactions for less than $10, the price has gone up too.. .. but  yeah the UTXOs could be problematic anywhere between $10 and $100.. and at the same time, I still have difficulties expecting to be able to process transactions less than 5 sats per vbyte on any kind of a regular basis, and maybe we will have similar kinds of difficulties in processing transactions less than 10 sats per vbyte.. -especially on a regular basis, so yeah, I was saying 1,650 for the whole transaction at 15 sats per vbyte (which was currently about $1.,, so yeah maybe getting some for $0.50 .. but then we expect the BTC price to go up and some other efficiencies to be created, but still at the same time ongoing increasing adoption.. So, I having trouble considering those low on chain transaction fees, except maybe once in a while having some temporary dips.

There are a variety of ways that people can attempt to address the ways in which they might maintain active relations with exchanges if they are using exchanges as off and on ramps, but if there are various places in which a guy can spend his bitcoin without going through exchanges, then that could be another option.  There are various jurisdictions that make it difficult to engage in peer to peer trading, but if any of us develops communities of peer to peer trading, there might not be much that could be done about that.. so yeah, surely guys have to figure out if they are o.k. holding thousands of dollars of value in bitcoin privately and if they don't have any ways to cash in and out of it, then they might get stressed by those kinds of circumstances.


I do think that practice can improve on those kinds of skills, so a person can  start out by investing a small amount into bitcoin, but if they end up screwing up because they did not engage in good financial management, they might blame bitcoin rather than blaming themselves.  There is ONLY so much that anyone can do to help other people in terms of their needing to figure out their own balances in regards to their financial management, and surely I frequently say that the stronger that a person might have emergency funds, reserves and a good cash float, then the more abilities that he would have to be more aggressive in his bitcoin investment without having to worry about overdoing it.. since in the case of good organization, the amount of funds are already set up and their purposes are understood, and so yeah sometimes a person might get sloppy or use their reserves and their float or maybe they dip into their emergency fund, so if they do not replenish something like their emergency fund in a timely manner, then they could end up with an actual emergency and then not have enough funds to cover it so then they end up having to dip into their BTC investment, and their cash management was supposed to be in place in order to not put oneself into a position that he has to dip into his BTC at a time that is anything other than his own choosing.


There can be tendencies to devolve into gambling and over doing it and becoming emotional, yet there are also practices to start out somewhat slow and to accustom oneself to the budgetary requirements of having an long term investment that is 4-10 years or more, and so a person needs to be careful to not invest too much because then s/he would be using money that it more than his/her discretionary income, meaning that it is money that is needed for expenses, needs or wants.. and so that money should not be put into bitcoin.

Sure it is good to have a longer time line, and that was part of the reason that I outlined the examples to show that the longer that we invest, even if we might start out at a market top, we still might well end up still putting ourselves into a good position.. even though surely it is not guaranteed, but we can see how our BTC portfolio is growing over a timeframe in which we might continue to buy for 4 years or more and then perhaps reassess if we might need to make any changes to what we are doing or just keep buying regularly.


Even if an investor has the same strategy, he might end up buying bitcoin at a higher price and then a lower price, so even a guy that got into bitcoin earlier could end up having a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later, but in the longer run, he still would end up having more BTC, so the time in the market may still end up being better, even if he ended up with a bit of a higher cost per BTC than someone who came in later.  At the same time, there is ONLY so much value in comparing to other people, but a guy could still compare to himself at time one or time 2, and surely I am not much of a proponent for waiting, even though I know that sometimes, there may need to be adjustments to how much is bought based on anticipations of price conditions, including being able to buy BTC as the price is going down, if that might end up being a guy's point of entrance into BTC.


Sure.  How much invested is part of the formula, and another part of the formula is how much BTC each of them has.

The first guy has 0.5386 BTC  and the second guy has 0.4489 BTC. and sometimes we still cannot change the facts and/or the prices in which we end up accumulating BTC, and there may well be cases in which we acquire a bunch of BTC, and then the price goes down, and then we see some later entrants who are able to buy more BTC than we have for lower prices.. so yeah, we cannot necessarily avoid some of those kinds of situations, and we just need to do our best in terms of building our own stack so we feel as if we are prepared the potential of UP and also for down too.


Yes.  A guy could have bought various BTC earlier and ended up with $10k invested and 10 BTC and an average cost per BTC of around $1k, and he could choose whether or not to keep investing or if he believes that he has met his BTC accumulation goal and whether he is in a position to change his BTC strategy to something else.  Holding BTC gives options, and it may not be a great idea for anyone to just start cashing out his BTC  in large amounts, so personally I believe that there are ways to sustainably withdraw bitcoin through either time based withdrawal strategies or raking strategies that involve selling as the price goes up (I talk about both of those kinds of strategies in my sustainable withdrawal thread), yet a person still needs to figure out how much of an income he might want to get from his BTC in order to conclude whether he has enough BTC to start to employ sustainable withdrawal or if he wants to keep accumulating for a while or if he might just want to wait for a while between accumulation and when he might start to employ some other kinds of practices.

A lot of squigglies. not sure if they mean much of anything.. and yeah of course, we had a correction and we have been a little more than 7 weeks into the correction, and we are going into a weekend.. when volumes tend to be a bit lower. .but still I cannot see this as any point in which it is make or break in either direction..