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2421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 08:32:18 AM
Can hear the pigs being slaughtered.

Just not worth it to try and quickly trade this, cant see it going much lower and the chance of a bounce is pretty high.
2422  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 07:39:24 AM
It is the most fucked up situation ever though as theres no way to rally without China because as soon as the price difference increases enough the arbers will dump on Stamp
2423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 07:29:52 AM
Translation of the Huobi announcement from Reddit:

Quote
Announcement on the Temporary Cessation of Deposits via ICBC Cards on Huobi
Dear Huobi users:
Latest news from Huobi:
At roughly 10:00am today, we received notice from the Zhongguancun Branch of ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank) that they had been notified by operations management to cease providing service to Huobi, and would be closing Huobi's ICBC account by April 18.
At roughly 10:30, several of the Huobi partners rushed to the Zhongguancun Branch of Huobi to communicate with the Customer Manager.
The situation is as follows:
They did truly receive notice from higher up at the bank, requesting a halt to our ICBC Zhongguancun Account, effective April 18
The notice was an oral notice. The branch has not received anything in writing
When asked why other banks had not sent out the same notice, the response was that different banks may be interpreting policies in different ways, and may have different levels of sensitivity
When asked if there was any room for maneuvering, the answer was that there was none. The order had come from above, and there was nothing to discuss
When asked how to handle user funds in the future, the answer was that we could shift our funds to a different commercial bank, but not ICBC.
We asked the Customer Manager to provide his views on the Bitcoin policy and related matters, but since they did not represent ICBC's views, and had little direct bearing on Huobi's operations, they will not be explained point-by-point in this notice.
Today at 12:00, we rushed back to the office to release this notice. Before release of this notice, we did not notify any users or organizations in advance. Please keep an eye on this.
Huobi will officially suspend deposits through its ICBC Zhongguancun Branch account next Monday (April 14)(this will not affect users withdrawing cash from ICBC. We will use accounts at other banks to transfer the funds to your account). At present, this does not affect other banks. Huobi will release any new information immediately.


Weird wording at the end.
2424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 07:23:28 AM
Finally  Grin

Now can we bounce of $400 and finally move on. Jeez
2425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 04:14:02 PM
[...]

A kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, yes. However, there was a 1w EMA downcross at the end of october 2013. How did that work out?

(a) Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall TERA specifying exactly which weekly EMAs crossed over, so it's hard to tell if you found a bad signal or not.

(b) That said, even if you did, keep in mind, we're not playing 'mathematical proof' here, where one counter example is enough. We're playing 'is my stochastic system better than a monkey throwing darts'. And if a signal is, say, right 3 out of 4 times, and assuming you have some form of risk control in place (basically something that allows you to let profitable positions run, while cutting short unprofitable ones), then there's a chance you have a system that beats the dart throwing monkeys*.


* Details very much matter of course, so the above is nothing but the most high level description of why history based trading works even if individual signals go wrong.

Yes, you're right. I didn't want to question the use of TA in general, it indeed works in so far as that it gives you an advantage over noobs/sheep. Even if only works 51% of the time instead of exactly 50%, that is a win over random walk.
What I was questioning was the absolute certainty with which some people here seem to "know" what will happen based on some simple technicals.
The probability that something totally unexpected will happen is still brutally high!

I completely agree, if phrased like that.

* * *

In any case, here's a ultra-condensed version why some of us are so bearish/worried (or maybe secretly happy?) about a continued decline.

First, there's nothing special about weekly, imo. I'll make the following case based on 3d, because I get slightly more signals like that. My choice of EMAs  is 'hand picked' to fit the history of the market in a certain way to make a case, I'm not going to pretend otherwise. I picked 3d EMA40 and EMA20 for this illustration. We have to go back to mtgox data to get a single, clear bearish crossover with those EMA parameters:



That bearish crossover happened approximately half-way (wrt time) through the 2011 bear market. Any further price swings didn't make the EMAs cross over again. (obviously, ignore everything right of the big red vertical line: that's the last chaotic period of mtgox trading, and can be ignored)

Now apply the same parameters to Bitstamp. Note that during the period where the data overlaps, the EMAs behaves similar, i.e. at the end of the last correction (mid 2013), the two EMAs got close, but never crossed over. Not surprising, since price was (almost) always highly correlated between the two exchanges.

Now, in the last week, there's finally another bearish crossover of the two EMAs.




The above is, in a nutshell, one of several reasons why some here are expecting a further decline in price.

Please note: Here's what I'm NOT saying: that it is /certain/ that we will go down further. Or that the number of signals I observed above give my method much statistical power. Or that momentum based trading is the alpha and omega of trading profitably.

Here is what I do conclude however: based on several technical signals (including, but not limited to the EMA/momentum one I showed above), there's the nagging suspicion that we are in a situation that is more like 2011, and less like 2012 or 2013.

Final note: if you would have traded based on the parameters above, i.e. sold at bearish CO in 2011, bought back again at bullish one, you would have made at most a minimal profit. So another claim I do *not* want to make is that you should sell now, and buy back when we CO again.

Thanks for this, the best and most educational post we've had here for a fair few pages.
2426  Economy / Exchanges / Re: www.BITSTAMP.net Bitcoin exchange site for USD/BTC on: April 09, 2014, 03:51:51 PM
the same question here, first time, tried to login and after some tries looked on bitcointalk and found this issue, waitinf for fix , hope it will be soon  Wink

Fix was deployed and we are now back to normal operations. https://www.bitstamp.net/article/update-regarding-openssl-vulnerability/

You mention resetting API keys but have you regenerated your SSL certs as well as applying the patch?
2427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 03:17:17 PM
to me these lows just give those who wanted in time to get it together.

Sure. Why not 100. Even more people can get in.
Bitcoin is 4, 5 years old? How many more years should people get in at the bottom?

Its not the bottom though is it, its just a chance to buy in for 3x less than what you may have been considering in December.

So, lets go down to 100. Is 400 is considered good then 100 must be amazing right?

Lets, I would sell most things I own for $100 coins again, would be pretty amazing
2428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 02:57:58 PM
to me these lows just give those who wanted in time to get it together.

Sure. Why not 100. Even more people can get in.
Bitcoin is 4, 5 years old? How many more years should people get in at the bottom?

Its not the bottom though is it, its just a chance to buy in for 3x less than what you may have been considering in December.
2429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 02:28:03 PM
you gotta be kidding me, french major retailer annouced to accept bitcoin within this year... im turning fucking bullish!

-> http://www.coindesk.com/french-retail-chain-monoprix-accept-bitcoin-payments-year/

CHOOOCHOOO  MOFOOOOSSSSS Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

edit: yeayyy im going to buy my groceries with bitcoins!

Pretty darn bullish, grocery shopping is one of the missing links in being able to live totally on BTC.
2430  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Block size limit problem on: April 09, 2014, 02:24:24 PM
how much size is best for a block? according to the block reward? is there a proportion?

The size of a block has nothing to do with the reward. It is just that, a max size that the block can be, currently this is 1mb.
2431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 12:34:36 PM
$10-$15 price movement and everyones freaking out, hilarious.
2432  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: it is getting hot ... summer's gonna be tought for gpu's on: April 09, 2014, 12:10:51 PM
I'll use my GPUs for playing ESO this summer and have my newly bought USB ASIC miner mining at four times the speed my two 5750s could reach with only 1/30 of the power consumption.

After revisitting GPU ming a few days ago I can't see how anyone is still seriously mining BTC with GPUs. Unless of course the new radeon cards are hashing at like double to trple speed compared to the 7ks.

Altcoins might be another story, but last time I checked that it was even less profitable than mining BTC.

I'd imagine were just talking about GPU's in general and thus mainly alt mining.
2433  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Cold Storage: Laptop? on: April 09, 2014, 12:09:04 PM
Buy a pi and make a cheap cold storage with armory or generate a key offline and make paperwallets.

Pi is overpriced IMO... but it is good device indeed.


$40  Huh

Exactly what is overpriced about that lol ?

is it $40 now???

Iw was more expensive when I was looking at it Tongue

Now it is only $40??? Good price Smiley not overpriced Tongue sorry Cheesy

Ok ... to download Pi is 30 euros ... but to buy a device Smiley is 124 euro - still overpriced Cheesy

I'm not sure you have any idea what your talking about, there is no polish amazon but the first result on German amazon is this

http://www.amazon.de/Raspberry-Pi-RBCA000-Mainboard-1176JZF-S/dp/B008PT4GGC/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1397045287&sr=8-1&keywords=raspberry+pi

Where are you looking...
2434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 12:02:37 PM
Good for her... but what about the guy who bought from her at above 1000 in December?  He too was told it was a good investment, but lost more than 55,000 € at this point...

Only if he sells at a loss... only way you loose money is by realizing a loss.
Depends on the viewpoint... One could also say that he lost over 100 k€ when he bought in December, but may still recover some of it, by pushing some or all of his loss onto someone else...  Grin

You mean by selling his coins to someone else? If he sold me all his coins now I have no loss only he does.
2435  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Cold Storage: Laptop? on: April 09, 2014, 12:01:03 PM
Buy a pi and make a cheap cold storage with armory or generate a key offline and make paperwallets.

Pi is overpriced IMO... but it is good device indeed.


$40  Huh

Exactly what is overpriced about that lol ?
2436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 11:58:41 AM
$446 wall guy on BTC-e is doing some nice accumulation.

Yes everything is just positive, no one is selling on Huobi everyone is just increasing their holdings, BTC going to the moon. Roll Eyes

Its okay, close your shorts, you'll sleep better.

Your mom wont let me close my shorts Grin

Im sure she would if you asked nicely, seems your comebacks are as bad as your poker ability.
2437  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Cold Storage: Laptop? on: April 09, 2014, 11:52:38 AM
So backups you can keep without your laptop Tongue

And IMO it would be safer to buy 10 usb memory sticks and backup wallets than put them on an laptop.


Yes, but without an actual permanent offline solution you can't really consider it to be cold storage anymore. The whole thing works on the premise of signing the transaction offline and then transferring the transaction to an online computer to broadcast. By doing so you avoid connecting to the internet with your wallet and hence significantly reduce the probability of your coins being stolen. Don't get me wrong - USBs are fine for storing an encrypted version of your wallet however it doesn't constitute cold storage.

I understand ... but you can always sign a transaction offline and later from same offline device make an USB backups? Smiley
And it will be a cold storage? or not?

Which you need a laptop or similar to do, hence you have no point really. Your first post said "You wouldnt consider a laptop a good cold storage method", yet to create cold storage you generally need a laptop that is offline.
2438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 11:49:10 AM
$446 wall guy on BTC-e is doing some nice accumulation.

Yes everything is just positive, no one is selling on Huobi everyone is just increasing their holdings, BTC going to the moon. Roll Eyes

Its okay, close your shorts, you'll sleep better.
2439  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Cold Storage: Laptop? on: April 09, 2014, 11:46:57 AM
Further to the fact that for long term cold storage a physical medium is likely better it is very trivial to remove the laptops wifi card and can easily be put back in if it is no longer needed for cold storage.

And what you will do if your HDD fails in your laptop? Which is happening every day to many users? Smiley


Have back ups...

So backups you can keep without your laptop Tongue

And IMO it would be safer to buy 10 usb memory sticks and backup wallets than put them on an laptop.


Yes but how are you going to create them? Use an online computer ? Defeats the whole point of cold storage...

Anyways, OP clearly doesnt really want cold storage as he talks about wanting it to be small and portable to take places and to confirm transactions face to face.

Maybe OP can clarify what they want?
2440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 11:43:50 AM
$446 wall guy on BTC-e is doing some nice accumulation.
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