^The market does not react spontaneously, otherwise stuff like trading and arbitrage would be impossible. It's adjusting as we speak   It's a temporal world. Change/time. Gox has been failing for almost a year now. We started calling it emptygox back in august, when everyone was fleeing via bitcoin because fiat withdrawals were not processing, and at that time Bitstamp because the most important exchange. |
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Be grateful with gox at least you have a physical person to hate, a place to protest, and legal proceedings to attempt. Now imagine if it was btce that went down. It would just *poof* *gone*. There would be none of this drama.
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There are a ton of investors waiting on the sidelines and all they want is some closure to this ongoing drama and for the bottom to be found and the worst priced in before they buy. So any end to the mtgox ordeal is bullish. There may be a short term downwards movement due to panic but ultimately upwards.
Who are these 'ton of investors'? Joe Sixpack turned on the news and thinks Bitcoin is dead. Any financial institution worth a damn won't touch Bitcoin with a 10 foot pole long after the dust has settled. Any present or future business that accepts Bitcoin is a net seller of Bitcoins, so count those out. Emerging markets are already painting it as an elaborate ponzi and in some cases banning it. There is still a ton of stolen coins waiting to be dumped. The taint of this news will not be washed by some Reddit headline of a donut shop down the street accepting BTC. As far as the mainstream perception goes, Bitcoin has a crapton of PR to do until it can shakeoff this colossal fuckup - the fact that some stupid CEO is actually responsible for it has little meaning outside of the in-the-know folks who are already a part of the Bitcoin community. I ask you again, who are these 'ton of investors' you speak of? - Every bear and bull who has sold and is waiting to rebuy. - The ridiculously overextended short interest on bitfinex. - Second Market - Anyone who has become aware of bitcoin in the past 3 months but has been waiting for the boom, bust, and reversal to complete before buying in. - My followers, who I have had on call about this. They are waiting with large sums of fiat. - The insane buyers on Bitstamp who drove it up from 400 to 600 and put tons of fiat on the order book. - The bitcoin bank in cyprus just opened. - People who will start buying into the new ATM machines - Any banker or wealthy person who has become aware and is waiting to take a gamble at this when the time is right. - [ill let some bulls continue this list her, because im actually waiting to rebuy myself, so i wont put too much eeffort] Screw what Joe Sixpack and Mainstread Media think. They are the ultimate contrarian indicator. Dont you get it? When public sentiment is low is the BEST time to buy. I want to buy low BEFORE public sentiment is good. Once public sentiment is good, prices will be driven up astronomically, and it will soon be time to SELL, not buy. Eventually regulated exchanges in the United States which function like stock markets will be launched. When that happens, people will forget all about mtgox and those will be seen as bitcoin's kindergarten days, before the price blasts into space. I have two major issues with Bitcoin being something that anyone would want to invest into at these prices: 1) The price has not gone down nearly enough given the recent light of events. The most well known Bitcoin exchange being now synonymous with one of the biggest financial thefts/losses in history is one step shy of the worst possible news that could happen - which is some flaw in the Bitcoin software itself. 2) Not only has Bitcoin's acceptance/breakthrough efforts have been set back significantly but the risk factor has also increased - who knows what will come of this development and the repercussions that governing agencies and others might impose. Such uncertainty, whether anything becomes of it, is still a factor that should weigh on the price because at a moment's notice some FUD could be created out of thin air relating to this situation and drive prices lower, which would be reasonable given the amount of fear in the air. TLDR: Bitcoin price is still way too high given the calamity of the situation, the new risks now attached, and no foreseeable development in the near term that could entice investors to not 'miss the train'. Investing at these prices, IMHO, is pretty stupid. Pro tip: Prices are only where they are at because people like you can have an immense fear and make rationalizations about why prices should be at these levels or lower. If the market thought that these prices were reasonable, they would not be here; they would be higher. |
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I am going to go ahead and defer all this fear and speculation to my net of standing orders. I'll settle for an average price at the midpoint inbetween here and the low, which will put me in the black as soon as any kind of bounce occurs.
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WHAT DID I tell you guys before lol. As soon as we get the overdue correction, everyone starts theorizing about the continuation of the bear market and how awful the gox situation is. Then miss their buying opportunity because they are waiting for some ridiculous 300 or whatever.
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Closing in on 200EMA again - everyone's favorite time to panic for whatever reason.
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The problem is this news affects the fence sitters, who'll be turned off. It also gives the regulators an excellent excuse to regulate bitcoin out of existence -- "Look, it's nothing but scammers and suckers."
As a bitcoin convert, *I* am not chomping at the bit to buy right now.
Bitcoin can't be killed by regulators. By design. For starters, it's global. No single country can makes rules for it, and global cooperation is not going to happen. Then there is the fact that it can't be killed. The tech is out there, all they can do is make it illegal which is not going to hurt the price. Which is why they won't do that either. False. illegalization will kill most of the demand. Most bitcoiners are hobbyists and investors who will listen to their government rather than risking going to jail, and most people are not anarcho-libertarians. |
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- Every bear and bull who has sold and is waiting to rebuy.
- The ridiculously overextended short interest on bitfinex.
- Second Market
- Anyone who has become aware of bitcoin in the past 3 months but has been waiting for the boom, bust, and reversal to complete before buying in.
- My followers, who I have had on call about this. They are waiting with large sums of fiat.
- The insane buyers on Bitstamp who drove it up from 400 to 600 and put tons of fiat on the order book.
- The bitcoin bank in cyprus just opened.
- People who will start buying into the new ATM machines
- Any banker or wealthy person who has become aware and is waiting to take a gamble at this when the time is right.
- [ill let some bulls continue this list her, because im actually waiting to rebuy myself, so i wont put too much eeffort]
Screw what Joe Sixpack and Mainstread Media think. They are the ultimate contrarian indicator. Dont you get it? When public sentiment is low is the BEST time to buy. I want to buy low BEFORE public sentiment is good. Once public sentiment is good, prices will be driven up astronomically, and it will soon be time to SELL, not buy.
Eventually regulated exchanges in the United States which function like stock markets will be launched. When that happens, people will forget all about mtgox and those will be seen as bitcoin's kindergarten days, before the price blasts into space.
Wow, I think this is the most bullish i've seen you. Also a new exchange in Hong Kong opened up today:  Hint: I like to play devil's advocate. I will argue agaist anything I think is irrational, whether it is bearish or bullish. It just so happens there are the most irrational bull arguments to argue against when the market is high and the most irrational bear arguments to argue against when the market is low. |
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There are a ton of investors waiting on the sidelines and all they want is some closure to this ongoing drama and for the bottom to be found and the worst priced in before they buy. So any end to the mtgox ordeal is bullish. There may be a short term downwards movement due to panic but ultimately upwards.
Who are these 'ton of investors'? Joe Sixpack turned on the news and thinks Bitcoin is dead. Any financial institution worth a damn won't touch Bitcoin with a 10 foot pole long after the dust has settled. Any present or future business that accepts Bitcoin is a net seller of Bitcoins, so count those out. Emerging markets are already painting it as an elaborate ponzi and in some cases banning it. There is still a ton of stolen coins waiting to be dumped. The taint of this news will not be washed by some Reddit headline of a donut shop down the street accepting BTC. As far as the mainstream perception goes, Bitcoin has a crapton of PR to do until it can shakeoff this colossal fuckup - the fact that some stupid CEO is actually responsible for it has little meaning outside of the in-the-know folks who are already a part of the Bitcoin community. I ask you again, who are these 'ton of investors' you speak of? - Every bear and bull who has sold and is waiting to rebuy. - The ridiculously overextended short interest on bitfinex. - Second Market - Anyone who has become aware of bitcoin in the past 3 months but has been waiting for the boom, bust, and reversal to complete before buying in. - My followers, who I have had on call about this. They are waiting with large sums of fiat. - The insane buyers on Bitstamp who drove it up from 400 to 600 and put tons of fiat on the order book. - The bitcoin bank in cyprus just opened. - People who will start buying into the new ATM machines - Any banker or wealthy person who has become aware and is waiting to take a gamble at this when the time is right. - [ill let some bulls continue this list her, because im actually waiting to rebuy myself, so i wont put too much eeffort] Screw what Joe Sixpack and Mainstread Media think. They are the ultimate contrarian indicator. Dont you get it? When public sentiment is low is the BEST time to buy. I want to buy low BEFORE public sentiment is good. Once public sentiment is good, prices will be driven up astronomically, and it will soon be time to SELL, not buy. Eventually regulated exchanges in the United States which function like stock markets will be launched. When that happens, people will forget all about mtgox and those will be seen as bitcoin's kindergarten days, before the price blasts into space. |
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Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.
So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.
Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?
it is really simple, bitcoin went from 80 to 1240 in one month and a half, this also doesn't seem healthy, people seem to think about "take some profit while they can", the down trend will continue till we discover the next adoption wave and we will see what the market will decide a fair price is. The good news came at the wrong time before capitulation had occured. btc is not really news-driven. it follows a boom/bust cycle of rallying and profit taking every 9 months and it follows a logarithmic trendline. |
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There are a ton of investors waiting on the sidelines and all they want is some closure to this ongoing drama and for the bottom to be found and the worst priced in before they buy. So any end to the mtgox ordeal is bullish. There may be a short term downwards movement due to panic but ultimately upwards.
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Finally the bullish news I have been waiting for.
Do you expect to see something of a panic dip based on this news, or has the market already priced this in? It was not 100% certain earlier, so it could not have been fully priced in. The news might be providing just the little nudge that the chart needed to trigger the correction we've been waiting for. It's one of those circumstances where the 'market was waiting for an excuse' to do something. |
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Finally the bullish news I have been waiting for.
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 It's really simple. Two strong trends collided and are smashed up against eachother. Everyone was extremely bullish after the gox reversal and wanted to buy buy buy, but then the price collided with the month-old established bear trend, and stopped the rally. Everyone was still so bullish that they didn't want to accept that a retracement was neccessary to break the bear trend, so it just stalled out. I still think it needs to go to ~500-530 first and consolidate before it can break the trend. It might take some news event to shake things up. |
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1030XBT bought yesterday
SecondMarket is becoming notorious now for completely missing lows and then buying during some extremely overbought condition afterwards. |
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So is this still the Gox Wall Observer thread? lol
 The walls are all still there, on Clark Moody, reminding us of us how much people lost. It's like the vietnam war memorial wall in DC. |
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<RogerVer> On Tuesday Mark told me via text message: Currently filing for bankruptcy and will update based on that
does anyone knows what happens next? are we going to get back any fiat or btc? If the bitcoinica case is any indication, then pretty much nothing. Some official or some such will ask for everyone's information on how much they're owed by Gox and so on and so forth, and then nothing will happen after that and nobody will get anything back. Maybe they're just collecting data from mtgox for tax purposes so that I can't just file a tax return claiming I lost a million dollars in mtgox. |
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 It's a long and boring way down with this speed... Your trendline is slightly off in slope because you are laying it underneath the silk road flashcrash which is a short term outlier. The support trendline right now is actually at about $320 not $250. |
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This is kind of like $100-$105 in July. We're not going to break the dark order resistance with this small volume now - and that means probably means going lower into a retracement to pick up volume and come back up.
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Looks some some kind of dark order resistance above 590 - every time it goes up there, there's this dump into the bid.
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