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2501  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 on: January 01, 2014, 10:38:38 PM
Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.
HF start shipping 31.12/13 https://twitter.com/HashFast

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship.  So HashFast "shipped" a token number of units (potentially as little as 1 BabyJet & 1 Sierra) to say they are "shipping".  My guess is they didn't even ship 3 units but I know for a fact at the absolute most they only shipped units prior to mine which would be a staggering 24 units or ~10 TH/s.  For all practical intents and purposes they haven't shipped anything.
2502  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do I understand proof-of-work correctly? on: January 01, 2014, 10:35:53 PM
Thanks.

But what incentivizes miners to mine on the longest fork?

The longest* fork has the greatest chance of remaining the longest fork.  All other forks will be orphaned and any generated coins on orphaned forks are worthless.  It is in a miners self interest to avoid worthless coins and that means always building off the longest fork.  Thus when miners learn that another block has been found which extends the primary chain they will switch and build off of that.  Doing anything else means a reduction in income.


* Longest technically means the most work not necessarily the most blocks as Bitcoin selects as the primary chain the one with the highest collective difficulty.
2503  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fortress is forming a Bitcoin fund on: January 01, 2014, 10:29:39 PM
I am not sure what will occur in this case.  However, typically when a commodity ETF launches or has an equity offering, the investment vehicle should first raises funds from investors and then purchases the underlying assets.

The fund itself may not hold any BTC but these are financial professionals.  Not too hard to form a separate entity to acquire the BTC, hold them, and then sell them to the trust for a precontracted rate once the fund is setup and raises capital from initial investors.  Essentially moving funds from one pocket to another.  A lot of big deals are "done" before they are official done.

Anyone thinking Fortress is going to let something like this "slip" (and this "slip" is a strategic slip, it it called a trial balloon) and then go and hit BUY $150,000,000 USD worth of BTC at Market on MtGox is dreaming.  It is a nice dream though.

However Fortress is a big name, and that means a wider audience to big money.  The fund could start with $150M in assets and grow to a billion or more which means future purchases.  Likewise first it was Second Market now (potentially it is just a rumor) Fortress.  Those are the first movers, the risk takers, the innovators.   The next thing is twenty other hedge funds doing the exact same thing because they don't want to lose client funds.
2504  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fortress is forming a Bitcoin fund on: January 01, 2014, 08:17:51 PM
How likely is it that they've already bought their coins?

Their initial coins?  No doubt they have already bought them.  I mean that is investing 101.  However if successful the funds would continually attract new investors which means future purchases.  I would point out FIG has not confirmed the rumor.
2505  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fortress is forming a Bitcoin fund on: January 01, 2014, 08:14:41 PM
Fortress = Fortress Investment Group.   

The multi billion dollar hedge fund company (>$50 Billion in assets under management) not the nobody scammer "Trade Fortress".  Maybe that helps people see the headline in a new light.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortress_Investment_Group
2506  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: I am Satoshi on: January 01, 2014, 06:26:58 PM
Would be interested but it should be the full name.
2507  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: January 01, 2014, 02:34:41 AM
Nothing in court guys. They forced us to an arbitration. There will be an arbitration.
Hmm someone mentioned you should start arbitration long time ago.  You must like wasting money.

Why would anyone "start arbitration long time ago [sic]"? Until there was a failure to deliver on Dec. 31 there was no claim to arbitrate.

Order prior to 15 AUG had no mention of Dec 31.  They have been in violation of their original TOS for months now.
2508  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is it possible yet to send bitcoin with a defineable time (or block #) delay? on: January 01, 2014, 12:23:45 AM
You can set a lock time, but it isn't as cool as you'd like.

The network won't remember your locked transaction for you, so you have to give them the raw transaction to be broadcast in the future.  Oh, and unless you delete the keys, you can always double spend it away during the lock time.

Can you clarify - a lock time is a piece of data stored (where?) that refers to a transaction that has not been broadcast?

What I think is more interesting is a TX that has been broadcast, but is somehow locked for a certain amount of time.  Which are we talking about?

The "lock time" is the value inside the transaction which indicates the earliest it can be included in a block.   The tx can't be part of the blockchain until that time because any block which contains a tx that exists prior to the locktime is invalid.

So what he is saying the network won't remember it for you, you will need to store a copy of the "signed and valid yet not yet able to be included in a block" transaction and submit it to the network AFTER the locktime has occured.


2509  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: December 31, 2013, 10:38:22 PM
For the record I have order 490.  There are only 24 units prior to mine on the order chain.  I did not receive tracking number or shipping notification.
http://hashfast.com/order-chain/

So at best HashFast ("capacity to ship hundreds of units per day") shipped 24 units.  It is likely less but unless someone else further up the chain can confirm not getting tracking information that is all I know for sure.

2510  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Congratulations CANADIANS, now your bitcoin is the most EXPENSIVE in the world. on: December 31, 2013, 09:07:06 PM
Yes, this is because of all the ATMS placed in vancuver and other major cities, it will only continue to expand, we should becareful though.
More business are also on the rise and more shops are opening that accept bitcoins there. This isnt just happening in canada, is happening
everywhere around he world basically.

I just think it's hilarious for a country with a population below 36,000,000.. can manage to pull that off. Proud to be Canadian.

You should be.  It also helps your government took a hands off approach when it came to Bitcoin specific regulation.  The actions of FinCEN and some states have increased the regulatory burden, and that makes innovation and growth slower and more difficult.
2511  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Defer Taxes: Buy BTC before NYE, sell just after? on: December 31, 2013, 08:53:28 PM
^+1 to the advice there.

The new purchase and sale in no way affect the taxable event which occurred with the prior sale. Buy 1 BTC @ $600, sell @ $1,200 you locked in a $600 taxable gain (short term if the time between buy and sell is less than 365 days).  Future tx can't modify that gain (and taxes due).  In your example you would have the same $49,500 capital gain for 2013 and in 2014 you would have a separate capital gain one the gain (if any) on the 20 BTC you bought and resold.

However at one time the reverse was true (but is no longer so only read on if you want to know another reason the IRS sucks).   At one time you could intentionally sell to lock in a paper loss (and thus reduction in taxes) and then immediately rebuy and thus continue to stay long the asset.  Say you bought 1 BTC @ $1,200 and then the market crashed, you believe BTC will go higher so you don't want to sell permanently down here but you would love a tax break.  So you would sell 1 BTC @ $600 and then immediately buy 1 BTC @ ~$600.  You still have 1 BTC but on paper you took a $600 loss (bought at $1,200 sold at $600) which at one time you could use to reduces your taxes.  The IRS introduced rules called "wash sale" rules which eliminate this "loophole" (smart strategy).   Today if you sell and rebuy an asset within 30 days it is considered a wash and you can't deduct any capital loss (although you still owe any capital gain).  To avoid a wash the time between sell and rebuy would need to be 31 days or more which would be very risk for Bitcoin.
2512  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is there enough duct tape in the US for every home in California? <Reactor 3> on: December 31, 2013, 08:34:53 PM
Also one major problem with Chernobyl is that shield built over the gaping reactor roof by workers (90% of which died) is aging and weakening.

There is a pretty interesting solution to build the shield on wheels nearby and it will be rolled into place over the aging crippled reactor to reduce the exposure to workers.
Interesting video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OFEI8S5rG0
2513  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 08:08:12 PM
California is not too far away from this now.  55.7% marginal rate above $508,000.

39.8% federal + 3.8% ACA + 12.1% state.  Not to mention payroll, Social Security, etc.


This 75% penalty tax is above and beyond all existings taxes.   So france isn't raising the income tax to 75% (which would be insane as it is) the employee and employer still pays all his normal taxes (income tax is >45%, social taxes >9%, VAT >19%) PLUS on top of that the employer now pays an additional 75% penalty tax in wages over 1M EUR.  It is >100% total taxation (on the portion above 1M EUR) as insane as that sounds, and no employer is going to pay more in taxes then they pay their employee so they will just cut wages to the 1M "cap" and offer other non salary compensation (stock options, increased benefits, etc).  The irony is that not only will the govt not get the 75% in super taxes they will lose all the taxes on employee incomes that have been cut.

That isn't to say CA isn't insane.  Don't forget CA has a 8.5% sales tax on top of the income tax.  Also don't forget ObamaCare added a 3.8% additional tax on those making >$250K annually starting in 2014. Similar to France (although well ambitious) this isn't raising the tax bracket by 3.8% it is a new separate tax class on top of all the existing taxes.  So yeah CA is pushing 60% to 70% in total taxation easy these days.  It is one reason why other tech hubs like Austin have seen so many CA immigrants.
2514  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 08:05:38 PM
@ gannicus,

Thanks for the cite. 

I think we might just be talking past each other.

1) I 100% agree no company will pay it thus it simply acts as a defacto cap on wages.

2) I agreed that it might be on the portion over 1M I never refuted your claim just said the articles was unclear and wondered if someone had a clearer example.  With your cite I agree 100% it is a flat 75% tax on the portion over 1M.   Simple solution.  Nobody (or no significant numbers) will get paid over 1M in salary (they will just take more deffered compensation) and the tax revenue will be roughly nothing.  75% of nothing is nothing. Smiley

3) It still isn't an income tax.  My point was that this isn't like raising the income tax bracket to 75% this is IN ADDITION to the employees income tax.  So hypothetically if the tax rate in the >1M EUR bracket was >25% (and I have to guess with France it is more like 50%+) that means the tax between both the employee and employer on the portion above 1M EUR is more than 100%.  That is how insane this is.   Merely raising the income tax bracket to 75% would be bad enough this is a scheme which results in more than 100% taxation.  Utterly asinine.  I think I was unclear but that was my point on saying it isn't an income tax.
2515  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: December 31, 2013, 07:56:13 PM
https://twitter.com/amywoodward/status/418097138644447232/photo/1

Looks like they will be saying they "shipped" . Happy new years folks.

That's impressive. Shipped at the worst possible day. Too late to earn ROI, too early for refunds.

in the photo it looks like a double radiator was used (presumably an H100i instead of an H80i).  obviously, its better at cooling than a single radiator.. but that leaves barely any spare space for more double radiators in the box... so where do you fit the extra radiator when you install an upgrade module ?  seems like switching to the double radiator may make it more difficult to use two modules... wonder why they made the switch?  (did the chip require more cooling than the single radiator could provide?)




I don't think they switched I believe the SlowJets were always going to use a double radiator.  In their much earlier airflow test they had 1 radiator at the top and 1 radiator (upgrade module) at the front. Yes that means intake before someone freaks out but honestly at this point it is the least of anyone's problems.   Early buyers are looking at a 50% to 90% loss in BTC terms depends on when the MPP ships and how much hashrate goes up in the next three months.
2516  Economy / Economics / Re: Lost Bitcoins on: December 31, 2013, 09:27:32 AM
Yeah that is nonsense.  2^256 is bigger than you think.  Not kinda bigger than you think asinenly bigger than you think.

If you converted the entire planet into a super computer and powered it by the sun you couldn't COUNT to 2^256 before the sun burned out, there isn't simply enough energy.  Of course that is doing something fantastical like building a perfect computer (one at which higher efficiency violates the laws of thermodynamics) and capturing the entire energy output of a star.   That isn't finding a collision that is just counting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 .... 2^256.   

2517  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 05:42:12 AM
It is effectively a "maximum wage" law.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_wage

Defacto it pretty much is a maximum wage law as no company is going to pay employees over the "cap" only to be slammed with an obviously punitive tax (on top of existing payroll, sales, and corporate income tax).  Companies will cut salaries (or offer alternative compensation) to avoid the tax and the "tax" will produce no significant revenue but the government will have to already know that will be the outcome and thus the "tax" isn't intended as a tax at all but a method of control.
2518  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 05:38:21 AM
This taxation is obviously absurd but I feel it is important to remember here that the 75% is over the amount that exceeds 1M and not over 1M itself. If your salary is 1.1M you will pay 75% of 100k + n% over the remaining 1M (n is around 40%, depends on many factors). This leads to an "effective" tax rate a bit lower than 75%. Still, absurd.

It is NOT an income tax.  French citizens will continue to pay whatever (likely insane) income tax exist.  This is a tax or more aptly a penalty paid by the COMPANY which dares to issue such a high salary.  You state it is on the amount over 75% can you point to a cite because nothing in the article indicates that.  Still even if it is only on the amount of the salary over 75% it is not an income tax and not paid by the employee.

In essence France has said "employers are not allowed to pay anyone over 1M EUR and if you do we will slam you with a 75% fine".  It is a defacto ban on salaries the government considers too high, the only thing more strict would be outright prohibition by making it a criminal offense for a company to pay an employee more than $1M EUR annually.
2519  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 01:32:35 AM
Weird the tax isn't an income tax, it is a penalty tax on the companies which pay its employees "too much".  The company pays a 75% tax on the salaries which exceed 1M EUR per year.  So company pays you 1M EUR, company coughs up 750K EUR to the government.  Correction:  The tax is on the employer for 75% of the wages ABOVE 1M EUR so it is in effect a wage cap.  Instead of the govt saying "wages over 1M annually are illegal" they just made it asininely expensive to pay wages that high so ... companies won't.

Company cuts your salary to 1,000,000 EUR or less, and the company pays no tax (well no extra millionaire taxes).  I have a feeling many companies will simply cut salaries which are over the 1M "cap" and offer some form of deferred compensation.

2520  Economy / Collectibles / Re: start the art - abstract paintings for bitcoins on: December 30, 2013, 05:31:21 PM
I bought (well my wife bought it as a gift) #3 in the series.  Dealing with Start The Art was pleasant and professional.   The only hard part is the waiting.  It is a long way from Croatia to the US.  I will be sure to post some photos once it arrived and it mounted.

I wanted to get #1 but honestly it was too large for the space and now it looks like Goat might have snapped it up. Sad
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