We're batting 0/3 (maybe 0/4 , was bAsic american?) with american asic companies. Cointerra most likely missing Dec shipments as well. Merry Xmas...
if all manufacturers miss by the same time-frame it wont matter cause the diff-increase is also delayed
Chinese companies still making chips. Bitmain, avalon. Plus KNC is most likely making their first gen chps for themselves to mine. Don't forget bitfury as well. Diff will keep rising.
Well the network is ~7 PH/s and KNC two batches in less than two months was >4 TH/s of that. So the others are shipping but nothing like the volumes of KNC (and volumes planned by Cointerra & HF). As the network gets bigger it takes bigger and bigger daily volume to keep growing at the ~30% per difficulty. A slow rollout of 50 GH/s and 100 GH/s rigs isn't going to move the needle as much anymore.
Still HF customers had better pray that Cointerra is delayed at least 30 days after HF ships as that is another 2 PH/s that originally was going to be months and months after HF delivered and now could be roughly the same time. Still even if Cointerra is delayed, batch 1 HF customers are still screwed as originally Batch 1 was Oct and Batch 2 was Dec. That provided a nice gap between the 0.5 PH in batch 1 and 2.0 PH/s in batch 2. Now essentially there is just one massive >2.5 PH/s batch. Sure batch 1 customers might get their units a few days early (at 2x to 3x the cost) but when HF ships difficulty is going to explode upwards. So either HF doesn't ship in which case batch 1 has no hashpower or they do ship in which case their difficulty is going up another 35%+.
To put it into perspective to produce the same amount of Bitcoins per day requires:
400 GH/s on Nov 1 (Original Batch 1 delivery date even padded 10 days)
908 GH/s today (if HF's BabyJets output 908 GH/s customers would be no better than getting 400 GH/s on time)
1,040 GH/s on Dec 31 (this assumes HF batch 2 is delayed 30+ days after batch 1 so it doesn't blast the difficulty)
1,352 GH/s on Dec 31 (w/ back to back delivery of batch 1)
This also assumes no more shipments from KNC this year and that Cointerra will be delayed 30+ days and the rest of the players continue their slow rollouts with no massive surprises (as in stepping on a landmine kind of surprise not a you just won the lottery surprise).
So pretty much at this point if HashFast converted all BabyJet's into Sierras and they were overclocked 15% it wouldn't be so massive bonus it would only be enough hashpower to give what was promised for Oct delivery. Now is HF going to do this? No but it illustrates just how screwed Batch 1 customers are. Even
IF HashFast upgraded all Batch 1 orders to Sierras, delivered all of them before 31 DEC, AND the chip operated 15% over spec, that would only be as good for Batch 1 customers as getting what they actually ordered on time (Nov 1).
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