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261  Economy / Speculation / Re: The end of labor and what it means for bitcoin on: September 06, 2015, 09:12:37 PM
Regarding Finland's basic income, keep in mind that as it's being discussed now, the system is projected to be no more expensive, or even cheaper, than the current unemployment benefits system. This is because the bureaucracy and side-effects of a welfare system that needs to ensure everyone receiving benefits deserves them are costly.

There's no actual empirical data out yet, of course, so this debate will go on until someone tries. IIRC 500 EUR / month is the sum that's being considered in Finland.
262  Economy / Speculation / Re: How well does Technical Analysis perform? on: September 06, 2015, 07:52:45 PM
Just did a single round, got about 6x buy and hold gains. Practically no analysis apart from looking at BBs for breakouts/downs. Can't say much since it was just one try but one thing was clear: I made most of my gains by holding on to losing positions until they turned green. That was a lot easier to do when you just click to fast forward instead of waiting for weeks in the red with real money on the line.
263  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT has code which downloads your IP address to facilitate blacklisting on: September 06, 2015, 03:37:38 PM
There you go again, with your process objection meta.  I'll fetch your fainting couch because in an unprecedented outbreak of ill manners, several Bitcoiners (having uncharacteristically strong opinions) have expressed themselves vehemently!

Clearly my attempt to cajole some kind of topical response out of you failed.  It's clear that you're against XT, and have grievances with how the whole project was brought about. You might use more pointed terms, I suppose.

May I ask where you stand on the underlying issue of what Bitcoin's design goal should be? Do you have an opinion on whether it (on-chain transactions) should be an expensive-to-use settlement network or a cheap-to-use payment network? Personally I feel the latter case - direct mass adoption - would be better if it can be technically supported, which I'm not sure about. If mass adoption is not possible I'm left doubting a settlement network alone is viable. That's my current feel on the matter, I'd be interested to hear what you think.
264  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT has code which downloads your IP address to facilitate blacklisting on: September 06, 2015, 08:33:15 AM
So who's winning, red or blue? I can't tell you guys apart anymore for all the name-calling and tantrums.   Cry

Ah yes, yet another poster more concerned with process objections (zomg someone is being rude on the internet) than technical details about scaling Bitcoin.

That's the opposite of what I was saying. This thread, like pretty much all others on the issue, has completely ditched any actual technical discussion in favour of the usual primate shit-slinging as far as I can tell. It's coming from both "sides", if you can call them that, since the only difference seems to be that both hate each other's guts.

What's a Gavinista? I'd like a technical breakdown of the term so I can see if I'm one.
265  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin XT has code which downloads your IP address to facilitate blacklisting on: September 06, 2015, 07:27:01 AM
So who's winning, red or blue? I can't tell you guys apart anymore for all the name-calling and tantrums.
266  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you want human body parts and organs to be bought & sold with Bitcoin? on: September 05, 2015, 01:16:26 PM
The question is a red herring. No-one is asking anyone here for permission to sell anything for BTC, so our opinions on the matter make no difference at all.
267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2015, 09:28:28 PM

Why would the miners not sell their BTC directly for USD (on any exchange), instead of selling it to other Chinese people, who, in turn, would sell it for USD (thus bypassing capital controls)?  How would the latter create greater demand for BTC?

Edit: And how exactly would the miners (as in large-scale "business") sell BTC to (Chinese) individuals?  Would that not change their legal standing? (genuinely not sure)

Like I said, they have local costs to cover. If they can get a premium for selling in local currency there's a profit in selling at least enough to cover their running expenses for CNY.

As for legal standing, I'm as clueless as you are. The Wikipedia article you linked states banks and financial institutions are prohibited from transacting in BTC. A miner is hardly a bank, but what constitutes a financial institution, I can't say. Like I said, miners would likely be wary of irritating the state - even if they are allowed to sell BTC to the public now that might easily change.
268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2015, 07:22:05 PM
Are you suggesting that (mined) BTC will be sold for (presumably undesirable) Yuan, rather than for USD or Euro?
Would that be instrumental in bypassing capital controls?  If so, how?

I'm not suggesting anything, just pointing out that unlike other countries with capital controls popping up of late, China at least has a better handle on the supply side of BTC. The miners must pay for electricity where they operate, and anyone looking to bypass capital controls would likely be willing to pay a premium, so there's a certain amount of opportunity there. Doesn't mean it would happen - for one, any mining operation would likely be leery of stepping on the state's toes in China.
269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2015, 06:47:36 PM
Capital controls are meant to work for exporting money outside of the county. Since the Chinese will deposit money directly to a Chinese company's account, that's being taxed for every transaction, it's perfectly legal.

Please be specific.  Which "Chinese company's account"?
Exactly how will that be done, considering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_bitcoin_by_country#China ?

AFAIK quite a lot of BTC are mined by Chinese miners.
270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official Whaleclub teamspeak topic. - Last : Giancarlo Devasini Bitfinex CFO on: September 01, 2015, 09:02:05 PM
Well to sum up, bitfinex defense line is "don't double click we'll refund any loss due to us exept double click which is well known that can block the system and screw your account.". But we think it's huge bullshit, the contract is clear, the button says "close order" it doesn't so they are guilty of all loss due to the "double click" too.

So wait, their "close order" button closes your position by taking the opposite position for the same amount as your open position, not based on the open order's ID? Or how would double-clicking close order cause any trouble in any sane system?

Perhaps it's faster for them to push a new order to the trade engine without looking up order IDs? 
271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2015, 06:40:56 AM
The flash return rate for BTC swaps is now higher than for USD swaps on Bitfinex. Don't recall seeing that for a while!
272  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Experiment - Achieving consensus where there is disagreement on: August 26, 2015, 09:02:20 PM
assuming the other BIPs have merit too, and it's not that the other miners necessarily disagree with that BIP but would rather another BIP. >75% all agreeing to one thing is hard! and its unlikely all losing miners would turn on the network in anger... I don't go causing a riot when a gov election wins with a minority vote.

having 75% pretty much guarantees that that BIP is some how superior

I meant more of a scenario where the BIP has support in the range of 50% and a large miner on the opposing side gets worried. With sufficient hashrate, they have the option to force the fork and then destroy the fork. I'm not sure the financial incentives would ever really be there, but looking at the debate, it seems more like a blue vs. red battle than a rational discussion, so you have to assume stupid things can get done.

edit: of course, currently there's no single pool that could do this. I guess I just like poking at obscure scenarios...
273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Experiment - Achieving consensus where there is disagreement on: August 26, 2015, 08:52:27 PM
The miner support level needs to be such that it's extremely unlikely the fork could turn out to be the weaker of the two. 75% with two weeks lead time seems reasonable assuming honest miners.

However, a miner with more than 25% of total hashrate could cause the fork pretty serious damage by mining bigger blocks (in the current case) just long enough to trigger the fork, and then reverting back to the old software. This would leave the "new" fork weaker than the "old" one. Granted, it'd also be quite expensive and the results for miners needing to sell their coins would be unpredictable. But it's an attack within the realm of possibility given a determined, large miner.

To avoid the latter attack, the required miner support level needs to be something like 50% + % of hashrate held by the largest single or colluding mining operation(s).
274  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: GAMBLE OR INVEST? on: August 25, 2015, 10:59:08 PM
Investing: You can lose or win. The odds are not known to you.
Gambling: You can lose or win. You know the odds are against you.
275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 25, 2015, 09:14:27 PM
i'm just going by what their twitter says.

Somewhere out there there must be a customer relations manual stressing the importance of only making announcements on downtime etc. in chats, private emails and 3rd party sites - never on the service's own announcement page! And someone must have sent free copies to all the exchange operators.
276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 05:14:34 PM
Please stop enabling the local misanthrope.
I just thought I'd point out why NLC is here for people who may not know.

No need, the trash gets swept away by the mods as long as people don't insist on spreading it around in quotes.
277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 04:35:40 PM
Well, at least you put a lot of effort into it.

Please stop enabling the local misanthrope.
278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 12:43:07 PM
bitfinex back, problems not solved though by the look of things.

I'm hoping this is still glitch territory..

How so? Seems to be trading just fine?
279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 10:39:17 AM
As price shoots down, demand for BTC to short rises. The swap rate will likely skyrocket - typically it's 0.0055% (daily), it went up to 0.0165% a week ago and then came down almost as fast as it went up. In the past we've seen peak rates as high as 0.4%, but the long-term trend seems to be for the peaks to be lower.


The interest rate on USD has historically been considerably higher, though. If you're going to risk your funds by keeping them on an exchange, maybe selling for USD and lending it out is the better bet?
280  Other / Meta / Re: What are the new rules for posting? on: August 21, 2015, 11:44:42 PM
If mega threads are not OK, how is it Adam's "wall observer" is still up and running, considering it must be the biggest and most off-topic thread on the entire forum?
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