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2601  Economy / Economics / Re: Econometric model of BTC valuation on: November 16, 2013, 08:09:30 PM
For your consideration, an econometric model whose coefficients are statistically significant to 99.99% confidence interval, and with an adjusted R2 value that explains over 90% of the variation in BTC prices (in USD). The differences between model4 in blue and model3 in red, is that the model in blue only takes data out to Dec24 2011 (685 observations) while the model depicted in red goes back to 1180 observations. It is possible that something fundamentally changed inside of those 2 intervals, so an average of the 2 may be most accurate.

As for what goes into the model and the mathematics, that is proprietary. But take a look at the output:




That is a fairly unimpressive correlation, your line completely missed the march/April rise. Does it ever predict significant falls?
2602  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Invictus Innovations ProtoShares Cheat Sheet | CPU Mining on: November 16, 2013, 06:22:36 PM
i dont get why pts is not integrated into any exchanges except the chinese one ...
Because it is less than 2 weeks old...
2603  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Invictus Innovations ProtoShares Cheat Sheet | CPU Mining on: November 16, 2013, 06:20:55 PM
can i manually withdraw from ypool?

No, you have to set a withdraw amount in your profile and they will send the coins once that threshold is met.

So I set my limit to 5pts before withdrawal, now I have 2 pts but will probably never reach 5pts on my crappy pc. Can I reduce my payout limit somehow? It reverts back to 5pts whenever I try to move it to 2pts...
2604  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: AltCoin with the fastest confirmation times? on: November 16, 2013, 06:12:55 PM
TIX and CPR are by far the fastest. No contest
How fast then?
2605  Other / Off-topic / Re: What is your gender? on: November 16, 2013, 05:54:28 PM
Male, what a cliché!
2606  Other / Politics & Society / Re: any free state project fans (or haters) here? on: November 16, 2013, 05:52:42 PM
New Hampshire?

I would have thought central Oregon, or Wyoming

New Hampshire has the 3rd (or is it 4th?) largest legislative body. That means its much easier to get elected. We have had more then ten free staters in the state house for years now. We've gotten some good legislation passed, including one Free Stater who pushed through a repeal of all knife laws

I don't know much about it, but based on this 'acheivement' I would say I am against it. Woohoo, people carry knives now, liberty!
2607  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How long till the end of the USDollar? on: November 16, 2013, 05:47:53 PM
The yen is still going on and is relatively ok. It must be at least. 10 years ahead of the us on the "we like to destroy our own economy" scale. When they go down it might accelerate things for America though, so I will guess 5 years.
2608  Economy / Economics / Re: Best way to turn 2BTC into 4BTC on: November 16, 2013, 05:39:52 PM
In dollar terms just doing nothing was the right thing to do.
2609  Economy / Economics / Re: The satoshi: now the second-lowest currency denomination on: November 16, 2013, 05:38:14 PM
Come on bitcoin, put that Burmese pya in its place!
2610  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Invictus Innovations ProtoShares Cheat Sheet | CPU Mining on: November 16, 2013, 07:26:37 AM
I am getting maybe 1 PTS by mining for over a day. What is the total coin supply now?

I think it will reach a tipping point soon. With difficulty rising price will be nowhere near the effort spent to mine.



I get 10~12 PTS a day mining with 20 physical cores and 20 VPS cores. Before btc38.com went into maintenance mode, PTS was going for about $5.8 each. I hear on coingrounds, it goes for 0.008 BTC. Plus, don't know what the value will be once the genesis block start and all the PTS spawn 1:1 ratio of Bitshares, and what ever else spawns from PTS.

Are you saying after some changes price may even go up? I have not looked closely into bitshares and DAC.

I had mined one block solo and after that getting a very small return when I started pool mining. I am now wondering whether to sell now for almost 0.5 BTC or hold. Thats why I wanted to know what the current coin supply was.
Where did you get the impression that 1 PTS can be sold at 0.5 BTC? Really curious, because all sources I know have much lower price.

I block was 50 pts, 0.01 per pts is 0.5 btc
2611  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: CPU Mining "Rig" - What's Needed? on: November 15, 2013, 08:29:15 PM
I think the question has kind of been answered elsewhere. Don't buy a mining rig, it is a waste of money. Cloud mine with hundreds of servers when it is profitable, and turn them off when it's not. No outlay and masses of mining power.
2612  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Janet Yellen's impact to bitcoin/cryptocurrency on: November 15, 2013, 08:25:54 PM
I like that the market reacted negatively when she said that QE won't go on forever!
She wanted negative interest rates only a couple of years ago. She will print the dollar into oblivion.
2613  Other / Politics & Society / Re: People who do not believe in Jesus Christ are blind and deaf on: November 15, 2013, 08:23:51 PM

Quote
The holy bible says you are blind and deaf.

The holy bible is more trustworthy than non-believers.

I don't agree with part b, therefore part a is moot to me.
2614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2013, 08:20:14 PM
wow - falling fast on Stamp. Not sure if I want to catch this knife... Embarrassed.

It is very sharp but it keeps bouncing back every time it falls. I expect that only bad news will cause a real crash. I don't know what that could be other than regulations..
2615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warren Buffet to buy Bitcoins on: November 15, 2013, 08:16:56 PM
Buffet only invests in assets that produce something and yield dividends. He says if there is no dividend then it is not an investment but only a price speculation, or gambling. He needs to have two sources of gain: the price increase and the dividends, not just one - the price increase.  His main MO is buy and hold, never sell, and just collect dividends.
Yeah, this.

Buffet's verdict on Bitcoin may still be up in the air, but I guarantee that he'll never hold it as an investment, even if he decides that Gates was right and Munger was wrong. It suffers from the same problem that Buffet sees with "investing" in gold: gold doesn't do anything - at best, it's just an instrument - so the only way to profit on it is speculation. Real investment in Buffet's philosophy is buying something that is useful... for instance, a corporation, which consistently makes profit in a way the investor can understand and be confident in.

So really, the question is if/when Buffet would invest in Bitcoin-using businesses, and whether it'll happen because he added a Bitcoin-using business to his portfolio, or because one of the businesses in his portfolio started using Bitcoin on their own.

But he could invest indirectly in bitcoin them by buying up bitcoin companies... Hopefully gox!
2616  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin in the UK: HMRC suggests bitcoins are ‘taxable vouchers’ on: November 15, 2013, 08:15:06 PM
What is a taxable voucher! Are there other examples of taxable vouchers?
2617  Economy / Economics / Re: Banks and Goverments will some day start buying BTC? on: November 15, 2013, 08:12:50 PM
I expect some banks already hold small amounts. I know neo&bee do!
2618  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [WTB] PROTOSHARES PTS 1BTC/1000PTS on: November 14, 2013, 02:15:33 PM
[WTB] PROTOSHARES PTS 1BTC/1000PTS
PM ME
Yeah me too! PM me!
2619  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Invictus Innovations ProtoShares Cheat Sheet | CPU Mining on: November 14, 2013, 09:58:56 AM
I'm kinda new to this. I've a i5 3330, with 8gb ram.

right now i'm using windows 32bit, so i'm swithching to windows 64bit to use my full extent of my ram.

so pls guide  me wat kind of miner should i use for best output and which pool is efficient.

If all goes smoothly i'm willing to add another 24gb of ram.
I found the Ypool to be the best, but there are >50,000 miners on it now.  They were finding about 200 blocks an hour according to their stats yesterday, now that the difficulty has increased, it is 70 an hour.
It should settle to 12 an hour sometime.  Even with your good computer, you will find very very little now.
2620  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: BTC-E FTC Delisting Scam on: November 14, 2013, 09:52:23 AM
Code:
"Update: closing trade on pair FTC\BTC was a mistake. We will not close FTC\BTC."

https://btc-e.com/news/185

What a shitty move, BTC-E. Way to scam your customers. They announced that FTC would be delisted and then as soon as it dipped to less than half it's value they said "Oops! Our mistake!"

I lost a lot of money because of this scam.  Embarrassed How can anyone trust this exchange now?  Huh

You mean like how Litecoin isn't going to GOX? Exchanges have many other ways to make money then just trading fees. They are clever. Maybe not nice, but clever. It goes to show just how speculative FTC is. If you sold, even low, you are better to be out of it in the long run.

Ouch, some people last 75% in a few minutes.  One graph I saw had a negative number showing on the Y axis it went down so far!
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