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2621  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.20 in one big buy? on: December 11, 2011, 03:50:15 PM
the bulls are back in business.
Bulls are back in business because they work and think as a herd, they buy in when things goes at the right direction in the short term (all of them at the same time) and forget all about the long term fundamentals. Then they cry when the price after a while gets back to where the Bitcoin Economy is at right now with the high inflation environment. This bull periods can ONLY happen in a short term fashion.
Bulls are always in business Angry.

Compare this rally to the one in May, or the drops to $2 recently. Which looks healthier? The May rally was quite obviously a bubble. The drops to $2 were unsustainable panics. This one is different: by my analysis we're going to $4 by January.
2622  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 12 on: December 11, 2011, 03:38:47 PM
3 slots at 3 bitcoins each.
1 slot at 3.5 bitcoin
1 slot at 4 bitcoin
The rules do not state whether this is possible or not. As a bid cancels all previous bids, it is my understanding that it is in fact not allowed. But, you can replicate it by bidding 5 slots at 3 bitcoins each and later increasing the bid, which I put you down as.

Slot #UsernameCost (BTC)
1Goat3.0
2Goat3.0
3Goat3.0
4Goat3.0
5Goat3.0
6Wm-center.com2.5
7Wm-center.com2.5
8Wm-center.com2.5
2623  Economy / Speculation / Re: USD savings plan on: December 10, 2011, 11:21:07 PM
Yes, this is a joke. Read the fine print.
This post is intended as a joke, in response to Edward50's post.
well the heck is the 0 option, if you decide not to save?
What kind of poll is this.

I did read the forum rules carefully, and it states nothing about implied copyright. You also agree not to post any copyrighted material unless you own the copyright or you have written consent from the owner of the copyrighted material. Spam, flooding, advertisements, chain letters, pyramid schemes, and solicitations are also forbidden on this forum. Therefore, this post is cast as a parody and therefore does not violate kjlimo's implied copyright of content.
If this is damaging to your possessions or brand, I will gladly remove it.
2624  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Dailybitcoins.org] Bitcoin faucet, sponsored by ads on: December 10, 2011, 11:16:48 PM
Giantdragon,

This is an excellent service you offer. To help improve it, I have done some editing for the FAQ to make it sound more coherent. Additions are in underline, deletions in strikethough, and changes in bold.

Quote
How do I participate in this game?
To participate in this free lottery you need a Bitcoin wallet. You can get it for free by downloading and installing the open source Bitcoin software from the official website http://bitcoin.org. No registration is required. Run the client and copy/paste your payment address to get a prize.

How much can I get?
You can receive the amount that appears on the main page. There is always a small amount of Bitcoins available (booby prize), but during the day at random times we give away much more valuable prizes. See the Stats section for information about prizes that will soon become available.

How often can I get a gift?
You can get only one bounty per day, regardless of its value. The term “day” refers to 24 hours, i.e. you can get a new prize 24 hours after requesting your previous prize. To know how much time you have left until the next bounty is available to you, just request a bounty and you will see an appropriate message.

How do I receive the visitor’s bonus?
For some ads, we give away prizes to each of the hundredth or thousandth unique users (e.g. 100th, 200th, 1000th) who visits the advertiser’s website. When you click on the an ad, your IP is recorded and an appropriate payment is sent to the last payment address you used to receive our free daily Bitcoins. If no one with the recorded IP ordered free Bitcoins, the prize goes to the next user.

How long is the prize valid for?
You must claim the prize within 2 minutes after the page has loaded. If you are too late or have refreshed the page (pressed F5), the prize becomes invalid and can go to another user. In this case you will receive another bounty offer or, if no more are available, the guaranteed booby prize.

How many times can I refresh the page to get the best prize?
You can do this as often as you want, but to protect our website from robots you will be required to solve a CAPTCHA after a certain number of refreshes per time interval to get a bounty offer.1

I haven’t received a payment. Why?
 To prevent fraud all requested payments are being analyzed with a special statistical algorithm that detects the probability of cheating using various factors. If this probability is above a threshold, the payment is automatically rejected. Of course the chances of false positive always exist, but in most cases it can be neglected. If you have fallen into this category, we are sorry. The analyzer’s decision is final and cannot be disputed.

When are your working hours?
 We process orders and send payments almost every hour during our working hours, which are from 1pm to 3am UTC+3. To minimize transaction costs we can delay payments to send more prizes in a bunch at once.

What browsers can I use?
 The website was tested with Mozilla Firefox 5, Google Chrome 12 and Microsoft Internet Explorer 9. Older versions may work but we cannot guarantee the absence of errors.

Advertisers
What types of advertising do you offer?
 We offer the Cost per Mille (pay per 1000 impressions, i.e. how many times an ad was shown) and Cost per Click (pay for each ad link followed) advertising systems2.

What payment methods do you accept?
 Apart from Bitcoin, we also accept wire transfer to our account in Latvian bank and WebMoney Transfer. To use these methods please place your advertisement and contact us. The price will be calculated based on MtGox exchange rate without any fees.

What advertisements do you accept?
 We do not impose any restrictions on the products you are advertising, but your ad must be a well-formatted textbox and must fit visually into the website’s appearance. We reserve the right to ask you to reformat your ad and will send you a notification e-mail.

When will my ad be added?
 Your ad will be added during our working hours after review and after payment is received, which is usually in less than a hour. We do not wait for payment confirmations.

Can I change the geolocation options?
 Yes, please contact us if you need to do this.

Can I get a refund?
We do not offer refunds.3

1: It is my understanding this captcha no longer exists.
2: There is nothing wrong with "schemes", but it sounds malicious. Systems is a better word.
3: This is less direct, but much more polite.
2625  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 12 on: December 10, 2011, 10:53:04 PM
I like my chart better Grin.

Slot #UsernameCost (BTC)
1Wm-center.com2.5
2Wm-center.com2.5
3Wm-center.com2.5
4Wm-center.com2.5
5Wm-center.com2.5
6C0ffer2.0
7Harvey2.0
8Edd1.5
2626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just broke 3! on: December 10, 2011, 10:43:14 PM
This is ridiculous, 3.14 seems to be the counterpoint of 2.
This rise is much healthier than the one in May (a "bubble rise"), and a bit healthier than the drops to 2 recently (sudden panics). The reason is because it is slow and supported by good news recently.
2627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just broke 3! on: December 10, 2011, 10:37:41 PM
It's going up above 3.1 again, before leveling at the 3 level again. That's my opinion on the matter. We haven't been this bullish since June.
2628  Economy / Speculation / USD savings plan on: December 10, 2011, 10:26:18 PM
So, my plan as of right now is 50 BTC / month. 

I plan to put 50 BTC into USD each month going forward whether the price jumps to 10 BTC/$ or if it drops to 10 bitcents / $. 

By steadily putting out money over time, it will average out the price that I buy BTC for. This is simply a long term savings plan and I assume I'm not the only person doing this.

Also, if we assume all central banks are selling dollars, we need $200M "purchased" by citizens daily or about $6B1 a month. 

At current prices this requires, 2000000000 BTC a month. Granted some people are purchasing/selling speculatively based on current price, but another population of people could be "savers" like me.

Hopefully, this poll can give an idea of who will be steadily flowing bitcoin into USD over the coming months.  If there's not 2B1 BTC / month, then the price is sure to drop again before the end of 2012.

Feel free to update your vote as you adjust your plan.  We'll see how much data we can gather here.

1: 109 (American system)

This post is intended as a joke, in response to Edward50's post.[/size=5pt]
well the heck is the 0 option, if you decide not to save?
What kind of poll is this.

I did read the forum rules carefully, and it states nothing about implied copyright. You also agree not to post any copyrighted material unless you own the copyright or you have written consent from the owner of the copyrighted material. Spam, flooding, advertisements, chain letters, pyramid schemes, and solicitations are also forbidden on this forum. Therefore, this post is cast as a parody and therefore does not violate kjlimo's implied copyright of content.
2629  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Islamic Bank of Bitcoin{}بنك بتكوين الاسلامي on: December 10, 2011, 10:06:56 PM
Has IBB made any loans recently? It looks like it's a stock-trading company now...
2630  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: New Ixcoin fork -> I0coin on: December 08, 2011, 10:27:12 PM
Yes i am off to work for now, 9-5, when i get home i will put an icon forward.

What does that even mean?
9-5 (or nine-to-five) is an American slang adjective for boring, menial, or routine labour, often used in a derogratory manner (to the job or to the owner of the job). Example: I have a 9-5 job. It is often corrupted to become a noun, e.g.: I have a 9-5. I am going to my 9-5. You should quit your 9-5.

The implied meaning of the sentence is "I must go to my work to earn a living. I will put forward an icon when I return."
2631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle's Favorite Chart on: December 08, 2011, 01:44:24 AM
I wake up and see nobody has detected an inch of sarcasm :/. I hate to frame people, but this is what I meant...


Mt. Gox, last 4 months. Again a gradual slow slide.
As usual, we have a gradual slow slide, characteristic of a classic bubble. We are now in the endgame. It is not clear how it will play out, but as I have been saying new lows will be set, and each week's highs will again fail to meet the last week's.

As I've been saying, if you aren't out yet, get out now. These exchanges will soon turn out scams as the value continues to drop. Bitcoin is too subordinate to ever meet its original purpose.
2632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle's Favorite Chart on: December 06, 2011, 10:43:32 PM
Mt. Gox, last 4 months. Again a gradual slow slide.
As usual, we have a gradual slow slide, characteristic of a classic bubble. We are now in the endgame. It is not clear how it will play out, but as I have been saying new lows will be set, and each week's highs will again fail to meet the last week's.

As I've been saying, if you aren't out yet, get out now. These exchanges will soon turn out scams as the value continues to drop. Bitcoin is too subordinate to ever meet its original purpose.

I thought the classical bubble had a steep drop at the end?

Bitcoin/USD, Mt. Gox, last 60 days. The long, slow slide continues.

It's a long, slow slide as the bubble deflates. The market is so thin that when someone does a big sell, there's a big drop. Then there's a recovery, but it's always lower than the previous high.

Look at the last full year:
Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.

2633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle's Favorite Chart on: December 06, 2011, 10:25:22 PM

Mt. Gox, last 4 months. Again a gradual slow slide.
As usual, we have a gradual slow slide, characteristic of a classic bubble. We are now in the endgame. It is not clear how it will play out, but as I have been saying new lows will be set, and each week's highs will again fail to meet the last week's.

As I've been saying, if you aren't out yet, get out now. These exchanges will soon turn out scams as the value continues to drop. Bitcoin is too subordinate to ever meet its original purpose.
2634  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Block 156325 was generated after 156326? on: December 06, 2011, 09:45:56 PM
Completely normal. You can generate a block 2 hours in the past and it would be accepted, as long as it isn't after the network median.
2635  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Which Cryptocurrencies offer zero-fee transactions? on: December 06, 2011, 09:40:26 PM
Hmm,

So if I got a custom client with the transaction fee removed, connected it with the Eligius pool, then things should work? The only 'issue' is that I would need to wait for Eligius mine a block before the transactions were processed?
Correct.
2636  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Which Cryptocurrencies offer zero-fee transactions? on: December 06, 2011, 09:24:12 PM
I want to create micro-transactions and am wondering if any of the current crypto currencies have no transaction fees? And if not, is it possible to create a miner that can allow zero-fee transactions?
Oh you just need a client that always make transactions with 0 fee. You should just modify the standard one or find one already modified.

As far as i know every miner just put every transactions in blocks even if they are 0 fee transactions, so no need for a special miner (with "miner" you are speaking about mining and not the bitcoin client right?)
The issue with that is that the clients will stop relaying your transactions. There are some solutions to this problem:
...
...
Eligius accepts all transactions it can take (but prioritizes fee transactions first).
2637  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Interested in forming a new alt currancy for personal use, help needed. on: December 06, 2011, 09:18:50 PM
It looks like hardly anyone uses GRouPcoins lately, maybe they would suit your needs?
This is a bad idea if you are going to use it for anything serious! A malicious individual can easily 51% an "adopted blockchain".

If you don't want to generate a new genesis block, you could generate a "2nd genesis block" onto a fresh disconnected bitcoin client, then fork the bitcoin codebase to require 2 genesis blocks.
2638  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Which Cryptocurrencies offer zero-fee transactions? on: December 06, 2011, 09:13:33 PM
I want to create micro-transactions and am wondering if any of the current crypto currencies have no transaction fees? And if not, is it possible to create a miner that can allow zero-fee transactions?
Oh you just need a client that always make transactions with 0 fee. You should just modify the standard one or find one already modified.

As far as i know every miner just put every transactions in blocks even if they are 0 fee transactions, so no need for a special miner (with "miner" you are speaking about mining and not the bitcoin client right?)
The issue with that is that the clients will stop relaying your transactions. There are some solutions to this problem:
  • Mine solo and include own transactions
  • Connect to Eligius mining pool and relay transactions there
  • Connect to Eligius mining pool and mine there
2639  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin value in January 2013 on: December 06, 2011, 01:22:53 AM
Re: supply vs. demand:

A supply and demand market is not rocket science. The true law governing it is that the market will always try to equalize the supply and demand. If we know the value of the supply S, the value of the demand D, and the price P we can easily determine the target price via the formula:
Code:
T = D * P / S
or more commonly
Code:
T / P = D / S
Target is to current price as demand is to supply.

So because we know exactly what the price will become, the important part is estimating supply and demand. This task is not as simple as one would assume, because both parts are unpredictable. Notice that supply is not the same as money supply or money supply growth, because much of that is infungible.

Simple Demand Model: Demand is constant
To simplify things, we can assume that demand remains constant. This is untrue, but is the simplest approximation possible. Since we are not dealing with quantified prices, we do not need to know exactly what the demand is, only that it remains constant.

Supply Model 1: Fixed proportion of miners selling1
The gross underestimation of supply, we assume that only miners sell their coins. The effect of the halving on this is that the price should spontaneously approach the doubling mark, because the effect is geometric.

Supply Model 2: Fixed proportion of money supply sold1
This seems more of a overestimation of supply, and under our demand scenario will cause the price to drop in a manner looking like an exponential decay2 trend, with drops slowing down the decline.

Supply Model 3: Custom model
Code:
S = T + cM
Effectively, this model is based on the amount moved as both a function of total money supply and mined supply. This hybrid can produce interesting price target models, some listed below:



Footnotes
1: This proportion can be greater than 1
2: Actually the multiplicative inverse (1/x), which mathematically is completely different from "exponential decay". The term "exponential decay" however is more common, and is used here. The term "reciprocal" is rarely if ever used to describe a trend.
2640  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What is a "signed int"? on: December 06, 2011, 12:06:02 AM
It's the "within the next 25 years" part that makes the quote funny. Representing time with a signed int doesn't become a problem for a long time, so Satoshi was being sarcastic.

Am I the only one who finds this quote funny? Maybe it needs more context.
I found it funny, but that's because I have background in Unix timekeeping and C jargon. I assume the average person doesn't have this knowledge, and therefore it would not make sense to them.
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