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2621  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Should you Cancel your Jalapeno Order? - This might help to decide on: June 24, 2013, 07:18:29 AM
Here is my estimate on revenue per week for a Jala 5Gh/s and 7Gh/s.  Assumptions: $111USD/BTC, 19% straightline increase in difficulty every two weeks.  I actually used 9.5% per week.  No allowance for electricity usage, just the gross $.
A 5Gh/s will make about $1000 between today and the end of the year.  Next year you only have a few weeks before it costs more to run than it makes.  So it's a brick by the end of February.  Although it may have a second life with altcoins.

Week   5 Gh/s   7 Gh/s
19-Jun    $101.27     $141.78
26-Jun    $92.48     $129.48
3-Jul            $84.46     $118.24
10-Jul    $77.13     $107.99
17-Jul    $70.44     $98.62
24-Jul    $64.33     $90.06
31-Jul    $58.75     $82.25
7-Aug    $53.65     $75.26
14-Aug    $47.10     $68.60
21-Aug    $43.01     $62.64
28-Aug    $39.28     $57.21
4-Sep    $37.32     $52.25
11-Sep    $34.08     $47.71
18-Sep    $31.13     $43.58
25-Sep    $28.43     $39.79
2-Oct    $25.96     $36.34
9-Oct    $23.71     $33.19
16-Oct    $21.65     $30.31
23-Oct    $19.77     $27.68
30-Oct    $18.06     $25.28
6-Nov    $16.49     $23.09
13-Nov    $15.06     $21.08
20-Nov    $13.75     $19.25
27-Nov    $12.56     $17.58
4-Dec    $11.47     $16.06
11-Dec    $10.48     $14.67
18-Dec    $9.57     $13.39
25-Dec    $8.74     $12.23

Try doing the numbers from the beginning of the year.

Find out what is the difference between what you make from now to the end of the year vs what you would have made if you had it in early january. I think you will (unpleasantly) surprised.
2622  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon highly unstable hashrate on: June 24, 2013, 07:12:58 AM
Two steps:
1. Ensure you have disabled wireless, this is the main contributing factor towards the USB dropouts
2. Ensure the F1 fuse is removed (it might have already been removed on your unit as it's a more recent delivery)
What is the story behind the F1 fuse?
2623  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [UPDATE] Butterfly Labs - June 22 2013 on: June 24, 2013, 07:09:20 AM
I don't believe for a second that their current backlog will be cleared in September. For a while, they were shipping a decent number of Jalapeno's, but even those have slowed down to a trickle in the last week or two so I cancelled all of my BFL orders.

It seems like they are having trouble keeping all the parts they need in stock to assemble and ship units.

I strongly suspect there will be much better options available from other companies by the time BFL clears their current backlog.  
You will be greatly rewarded by your insights. (says my fortune cookie)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=troxvPRmZm8

Don't click this link.
2624  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: [WTS] BOA > BTC [ESCROW Enabled] Buy BTC with Confidence on: June 23, 2013, 09:54:14 PM
Best of luck!
Thanks, I already got my first BTC buyer just after you wrote this.

I am already working on adding Payza, Web money, Okpay and USPS Money order.
2625  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Official Newbie BitInstant Support Thread (Active Customer Support) on: June 23, 2013, 03:45:44 AM
Only fair to let folks know, that they finally sent my bitcoins today...took a long time, but I guess this squeaky wheel finally got some grease.  no compensation, but at least i have my money now
When was your order date?
2626  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: WTB 10 BTC on: June 22, 2013, 10:30:23 PM
Hi,
You might want to have a look at my listing:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240778.0
2627  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: [WTS] BOA > BTC [ESCROW Enabled] Buy BTC with Confidence on: June 22, 2013, 07:50:49 PM
<reserved>
2628  Economy / Currency exchange / BOA/PayPal/OKPay for 3 BTC [ESCROW Enabled] Buy BTC with Confidence on: June 22, 2013, 07:50:02 PM
I am starting a small Exchange service on Local Bitcoins.


I take Bank Of America Online Transfers and Cash Deposits from any Bank Of America teller.

I will soon support Wells Fargo and Chase Bank transfer in the near future.

---------------------------------
Removed Link
FAQ:

What Escrow do you use?
I use the Escrow system built into LocalBitcoins.com . They provide automated escrow services and security built into their site.

How does this Escrow work?
Sellers (me) deposit money into a LocalBitcoins.com account. Then when a purchase occurs (by you) the Escrow service deducts the money from my LocalBitcoins online wallet and waits until Buyer and/or Seller indicate that the other party has done their part of the  transaction in good faith. The funds (BTC) are then automatically released to you. As a Seller, I don't have control over the coins after they enter into the escrow so there is no way to steal anything.

If there is ever a problem you can start a dispute and localbitcoins staff will look into it and release funds as appropriate.

We also (as a Seller) cannot sell what we do not actually have deposited, it is that simple.

What service are you providing?
If you are using Bank of America - Online Transfers (From an BOA account to a BOA account) I will wait until the payment clears the first time. Then release the escrowed bitcoins to you. (usually this will take anywhere from a few hours to the next business day.)

If it is your 2nd or nth time buying BTC from me then I won't wait until the payment clears. I will release the BTC from escrow as soon as I see the payment coming in. Usually the turn around time from your payment being sent to receiving your coins is about 15 to 20 minutes.

What if I go to a Bank Of America Teller and deposit my cash directly into your BOA account?
We will then immediately release the funds upon seeing the transfer from the teller. This is called a Bank Of America - Cash Deposit and it clears almost immediately. The release of the BTC from escrow is then made within minutes, it is pretty fast.

What are the fees?

LocalBitcoins charges very small fees for the escrow service. There are also some tiny fees associated with Bitcoin Transfers. So the difference might be anywhere from 1% to 0.25%. I have decided I will cover the fees for you. I will, as they are pretty small fees. I will update the FAQ as soon as I have more info.

Please see this link for more information:

https://localbitcoins.com/fees

How often do you monitor your trades?

I monitor my trades around the clock. On weekends, there may be a brief delay in getting back to your questions.

----------------------------

Feel free to leave feedback about your experience. Current limits per buyer are set to 250$ per transaction. I will lift the limits as soon as I am comfortable with doing larger trades.
2629  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Official Newbie BitInstant Support Thread (Active Customer Support) on: June 22, 2013, 07:45:38 PM
Anyone get the deep feeling that there is no actual resolution queue, and they are just trying to delay us because they really don't have the money?
2630  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Official Newbie BitInstant Support Thread (Active Customer Support) on: June 22, 2013, 12:00:49 PM
@ BitInstant

Refund my BTC. This is the third of fourth time I have told you to do so.

Order: df07ed15-e31f-48be-9d0f-da85a3a59c58

Day 10 or 11 I forget which...
2631  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 22, 2013, 02:12:35 AM

I am offering an AMD 7950 for 500 BTC. PM me if interested.

Damnit, that too cheap! I must now raise my prices. 15,000 BTC!
2632  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 22, 2013, 01:47:15 AM
I will sell my Avalon batch #1 for 800 BTC.

Yes, you heard that right. Why? Well because if a 1.5 TH machine will make oodles of money, then why in the world would you not make back 800BTC?

Its in hand, full escrow...go on, buy it from me at that price.

It's like I am letting you "steal it" from me for that amount.... Roll Eyes Wink Cheesy

450k x 3 in profits? = Millionaire? (1,350,000 USD) for 1.5TH

Money, Mo' Money! = 1,500 / 71 = ~1/21 the hashing power

Therefore 1,350,000 / 21 = ~65kUSD

--------------------

Now why are you waiting to get mildly rich? BUY IT NOW!
2633  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 22, 2013, 01:42:39 AM
It may be a poor deal on the buying end. But that does not make it a scam. Actual fraud is a required element for something to be a scam.

Where is the fraud in this deal?

I have to agree. There is no fraud involved in offering to sell a mini-rig for a ludicrous price.
Then you'd agree that Multi-Level Marketing is completely legitimate for that very same reason.

Right? Everyone wins in an MLM! Wink

It may be a poor deal on the buying end. But that does not make it a scam. Actual fraud is a required element for something to be a scam.

Where is the fraud in this deal?

If you tell your buyer that the odds they may only make the money back in 1/1000th chance. Then there is no scam because you didn't misrepresent anything.

If you tell the buyer, hey you know what? I want you to buy this from me for 450k but I don't really think it will make you any cash up to that amount. Again that is not a scam.

If you tell the buyer, hey you know what? You will totally (for sure) make the 450k back. That is why I am selling it to you....Wink

Then you might be misrepresenting an opportunity. Therefore creating unlikely expectations to take their money and run.

In either case, it is just "my opinion".
2634  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Official Newbie BitInstant Support Thread (Active Customer Support) on: June 21, 2013, 04:10:06 AM
Sent bitcoins on 6/18 for a bitcoin to PayPal transaction, still have not received one email back from the support team, or any funds in my paypal account. Please respond to my emails so I know exactly what's going on. I see your BTC wallet address has the exact amount that I was told to send on 6/18, so why is my order so backed up? When I placed the order the estimated time was about one hour...
I have the same problem. @ BitInstant Cancel my order and send me back my coins.

I do not want you to process my order after 9 days (I stopped counting) of waiting.

Send me my BTC back into my wallet. What went in comes back out. I am starting my own Mini-Exchange using Local Bitcoins (with escrow.)

I am still getting a hang of the system but if anyone is interested in buying bitcoins:

https://localbitcoins.com/ad/19710/
2635  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 21, 2013, 12:02:17 AM
...
I used to think the price of BTC would be 1k by summer. Well it isn't.
...

...
To add: If 95% of the user base abandons BitCoin and moves on to other coins...then BitCoin itself will not sustain itself.

BitCoin is only as good in value and usability as the people who actually use it.

Think about it, what would you do if BitCoins were incredibly hard to mine and obtain?
...
Wow - did you read what you typed?

Seriously?

You have no idea what bitcoin is do you Tongue
I am dyslexic.

But other than that, there is nothing wrong with it Kano.

Are you still mad about yesterday?
2636  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 20, 2013, 11:42:05 PM
If you only plug in one of the power supplies, does the device still function but only running up half the boards at 250GH/s?

Just thinking about if a breaker trips.

Since this rig is running with a USB hub inside, yes, that is exactly what will happen.

When they start using xlink, it will depend on if the master board is taken out or not so if one PSU goes down, you could lose the whole rig.
I thought they had already been told about this problem at one of the trade shows?

Why have they not fixed this to date?
I'm pretty sure everyone considers it more important to get it delivered and mining...
Apparently not...
Hello fellow bitcoiners,

It has come to my attention that there are multiple BFL customers with early orders who would like to part with some of their 500Gh/s units. The reasons are numerus, from not having enough power to run the units to some wanting to not have to deal with mining.

I would like to get a feeling from the community if any of you are interested in purchasing these units.

My roll in this is strictly as a broker / escrow / single point of contact for handling all queries and sales.

The 500Gh/s units are offered at $150k each with payment in BTC preferred.

If you have any questions, you can ask them by PM or in this thread.

Best,
James

He's apparently already trying to sell orders (as a broker or not) for more than it is worth. What does that tell you?

Wow $150,000 for something that initially was priced at $30,000 and had originally twice the specified hash speed?

Fucking lawlz!

So, trying to stay in the realm of a plausible reality..what do you think a 500GH/s unit--in hand--should go for?

Weren't they mean't to be 3x this at 1.5Th?! What happened?? I thought buyers got 3x these for $30k which would be a $420k profit. It's those silly damn calculators man, people are selling at today's market rate assuming future stability and ignoring incoming exponential hashrate increase. When these guys originally purchased these there was only BFL and few other interested parties...
Indeed, they are.

The only thing I see though is that people that are selling are very hardcore believers in the exponential hash rate increase....otherwise they would not be selling it now.

They seem to get wind that there is going to be a huge problem and are getting out of it as fast as possible.

It is logical, that if it produces that much money, they would be keeping it and running it for themselves. Instead they are taking some poor sucker to the cleaners so they can probably reposition themselves with even better hardware.

-------------------

Lets say GigaVPS brokers the deals, some part of that is going to be his. If a 1.5Th unit goes for 450k, I can only imagine GigaVPS taking a good chunk of that fortune in the sale as brokerage fees.

He will get to upgrade his farm in quite a big way no matter how you look at it. But it will be on the backs of someone who is going to be paying 450k for it. Making oneself rich while making someone else poor by the same amount.

IMO, it all a pretty obvious naked scam. If you do the math, the price of BTC would have to (at the very least double 2 possibly 3 times over the next year and remain sustained for this to be viable.

Can it happen, sure. Is it likely? I wouldn't know. I don't think that much money will enter the exchanges to support that kind of price point. It's possible, but it a VERY long shot.

I used to think the price of BTC would be 1k by summer. Well it isn't. I dunno what to say other than good luck to the goofballs that are willing to sink half a million into that deal. They really are going to need it.

------------------------------

To add: If 95% of the user base abandons BitCoin and moves on to other coins...then BitCoin itself will not sustain itself.

BitCoin is only as good in value and usability as the people who actually use it.

Think about it, what would you do if BitCoins were incredibly hard to mine and obtain?
You would move to another coin wouldn't you?
What happens with your ASIC if you decide to go elsewhere?
You'd sell it. What happens to the price of the hardware if 1,000 other sellers decide to do the same every day? The resale value of the hardware nose dives.

What if you cannot buy another ASIC for another type of cryptocoin due to the current hardwares depreciating value?

You'd have to go back to using CC payments or re-enter yet another companies pre-order scheme to get that particular ASIC developed. Months or a year down the road.

------------------------------

In the meantime, there is a strong possibility that the BitCoin user base migrates away from BTC to use "the next Coin". If the perceived value or usability of BTC goes down the tubes, there is a fair possibility the money will start rushing out of the exchanges for that particular coin to another (or a series of other coins).

Liquidity dries up and then you have a major problem.

There is a possibility that BTC will still remain viable and retain it's value if people move away from buying whole coins to just fractions of a coin. If that does turn out to be case, then even if people cannot mine BTC to the same degree as before, you will still have a useful market rate for a given fraction of a coin.

In which case, buying ASIC's is not the best strategy. Buying BitCoins would be.
2637  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 20, 2013, 12:11:57 PM
If you only plug in one of the power supplies, does the device still function but only running up half the boards at 250GH/s?

Just thinking about if a breaker trips.

Since this rig is running with a USB hub inside, yes, that is exactly what will happen.

When they start using xlink, it will depend on if the master board is taken out or not so if one PSU goes down, you could lose the whole rig.
I thought they had already been told about this problem at one of the trade shows?

Why have they not fixed this to date?

Funny how you got 2 replies from Luke-Jr paid shill and from kano...BFL's PR is so good!
Shit...you noticed.

Shhh....
2638  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] First 500Gh/s BFL unit up and running! on: June 20, 2013, 12:11:26 PM
If you only plug in one of the power supplies, does the device still function but only running up half the boards at 250GH/s?

Just thinking about if a breaker trips.

Since this rig is running with a USB hub inside, yes, that is exactly what will happen.

When they start using xlink, it will depend on if the master board is taken out or not so if one PSU goes down, you could lose the whole rig.
I thought they had already been told about this problem at one of the trade shows?

Why have they not fixed this to date?
I'm pretty sure everyone considers it more important to get it delivered and mining...
Apparently not...
Hello fellow bitcoiners,

It has come to my attention that there are multiple BFL customers with early orders who would like to part with some of their 500Gh/s units. The reasons are numerus, from not having enough power to run the units to some wanting to not have to deal with mining.

I would like to get a feeling from the community if any of you are interested in purchasing these units.

My roll in this is strictly as a broker / escrow / single point of contact for handling all queries and sales.

The 500Gh/s units are offered at $150k each with payment in BTC preferred.

If you have any questions, you can ask them by PM or in this thread.

Best,
James

He's apparently already trying to sell orders (as a broker or not) for more than it is worth. What does that tell you?

Wow $150,000 for something that initially was priced at $30,000 and had originally twice the specified hash speed?

Fucking lawlz!
Take notice he is selling a third of a minirig (500Gh/s) for 150k.

The total unit should therefore go for 450k. (15x the original price)

WAY more than it is actually worth (even in BTC production).

-----------------

I think it is getting "kind of obvious" that people are offloading Gen1 ASICs unto "the greater fool".

I haven't even taken the time to really go on about BFL Singles because I want to see how long it takes for people to notice by the time they get their Single...it is pretty much worth [much] less.

The odd thing is...if they sell it...before they actually get it (as a pre-order). They might actually make more than when they get it and use it.

The funny thing is, there are quite a few selling their Singles and doing just that on Ebay and in the Marketplace.

By the time Singles get into the hands of customers, there will be so many on sale, that the resale price will tank. Like a shark...I am waiting for it. Cheesy
2639  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon's New Factory! ;D on: June 20, 2013, 10:59:49 AM
Oh the trolls. Everyone said B3 would never sell at 72btc... ah look it sold out.

Everyone says "oh it was 70 no one will buy b4". It will sell it. Why would people say otherwise? Because they have a vested interest. Either they get cheaper units, or less competition for units.

This isn't fucking difficult to understand.
They "sold" because people lost their heads. There were no options available (unless you consider BFL an option way back then);

I wasn't against it either, it funds Avalon next steps.

I highly doubt the situation will repeat.
2640  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon Batch#4 Supporting Evidence - Apologies welcomed :) on: June 20, 2013, 08:50:53 AM
what better way to filter out the spam support requests like "Are you guys making batch 4?"

makes sense to me Smiley

LOL you can read my mind?!
I just read your mind.... Shocked

And besides lots of pounding on aluminum because some Avalon machines won't work right, I saw blueprints for the new Avalon design. Between 180 and 240Gh/s.

With an optional cabled connections for 800Gh/s to 1440Gh/s. (16 to 24 modules configuration  Kiss)

Just tell me I am right about "something" so Inaba can soil his pants everyday and barely get any sleep for the rest of the year.

Or tell me I am wrong, so that BFL employees can sleep well at night, unbeknownst to them that Yifu is a master of deception....until the last second....  Grin
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