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2681  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is looking good.. on: September 28, 2013, 03:36:12 PM
time to cover.

Do you mean 'time to cover' because someone is going to dump a couple thousand coins, or you mean something else?
2682  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 28, 2013, 01:58:00 PM
Actually, if two months from now, silver will be worth 10% more and BTC 25% less, it's going to be quite profitable for him.
He'll just sell the silver and buy more coins.
2683  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming. on: September 28, 2013, 08:15:48 AM
IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.
2684  Economy / Speculation / Re: One week call on: September 27, 2013, 09:18:27 PM
I may have an explanation for the failure of Chodpaba's prediction of the 22nd September.
The price drop that started on the 19th should have gone lower than 131$, but it didn't because
the second stage of the drop was met with an increase in money flow. Ironically, the rebound that
should have happened on the 22nd was met with a drop in money flow, so they both were flattened.
This made EW sub-sub-wave recognition impossible for me in those days, and I suspect Chodpaba's
results were distorted (to some extent) for the same reason.
I'd like to add that from the 22th we are kind of repeating the evolution from the 7th, only with flattened
price oscillation amplitudes and starting from a higher price point. And that in comparison with the bear
market of June, the sub-waves now take about 3 times longer, so more patience is needed.
2685  Economy / Speculation / Re: One week call on: September 27, 2013, 03:11:29 PM
I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.
But this could start 1 or 2 days sooner, if a BTC whale understands where he is and dumps.
And I expect it to be turbulent, so the 115$ is just a median, could be anywhere between 110$ and 120$.
2686  Economy / Speculation / Re: One week call on: September 27, 2013, 07:47:39 AM
Code:
               Gox Daily, GMT	High	Low	VWA
Monday, September 23, 2013 $135.30 $130.03 $132.59
Tuesday, September 24, 2013 $134.53 $129.54 $131.84
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 $133.85 $128.66 $131.12
Thursday, September 26, 2013 $133.14 $127.88 $130.37
Friday, September 27, 2013 $132.69 $126.97 $129.74
Saturday, September 28, 2013 $132.55 $125.67 $129.06
Sunday, September 29, 2013 $131.91 $125.47 $128.39

That didn't go well, 10$ difference in the peak. Did you find there a lesson to learn?
For me, the lesson is "don't underestimate the panic buyers".  Grin
Or, more seriously, even if we are in bear market since the 5th September, bullish sentiment is still strong.
2687  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will The Bitcoin Investment Trust affect the price? on: September 26, 2013, 06:46:50 PM
IMO the new major investors into bitcoin are going to try to suppress the price on the exchanges.
That's if they aren't already doing it, but I haven't seen any signs yet.
They will buy coins directly from ASIC miners and early adopters, at a negociated price.
Since the negociated price will be somehow related to the price on the exchanges, the best tactic
would be to suppress the price (pump down with minimal costs), in order to get better direct deals.
2688  Economy / Economics / Re: NSA is sniffing SWIFT - more reason for BTC on: September 26, 2013, 06:26:34 AM
Why aren't people protesting in front of the White House or anything? The NSA is doing all sorts of horrible things and yet it seems like people just accept it and move on.

Because the people aren't 'we the people' anymore, they are mostly sheeple.
2689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 25, 2013, 07:33:36 PM
As long as the announcement doesn't include 10M$ extra on the bid sum at Gox, I don't give a damn.  Wink
2690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 22, 2013, 03:57:20 PM
I hope that everyone is being so quiet because they are busy ramping up their understanding of statistical quantitative analysis.

Good one!

If the drop in the money flow persists for another 2 - 3 hours, we may have another price drop, possibly to 125$.

PS. So far, despite the low money flow, no price drop. Looks like the price will stabilize at 133$ for a while, or even a bit higher.
2691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 21, 2013, 07:54:07 PM
Or he took advantage of a local high, because he paid attention to long term charts, like this:

2692  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much ,as you think ,is 1 bitcoin in 2025? on: September 21, 2013, 08:27:14 AM
$0. In 2025, the underlying ciphers will be broken by then.

Same opinion here. It will be superseded by another, safer and user-friendlier crypto-currency.
2693  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 20, 2013, 04:58:54 PM
I doubt the support concept works here. The correction that happened yesterday had just 2 dumps, one small one large,
then a strong rebound due to thin asks. If a correction gets close to 125$ without further rolling the price imbalance, the price will stabilize there.
But that would be in contradiction with the EW theory, which says that the local bottom should be deeper than the one of the 7th.
So I placed my buy order just above 120$, but right now I'm not sure if it will drop that low.
2694  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 20, 2013, 04:23:38 PM
The imbalance in the price is close to 10$, so another correction is quite probably IMO.
But as long as volume stays low, it just won't happen. And it requires a significant drop in money flow too.
This could happen in 1 - 2 hours, or in 6 - 7 hours from now ( or not at all if a whale buys and corrects the imbalance ).
2695  Economy / Speculation / Re: One week call on: September 19, 2013, 04:31:11 PM
At last, some movement! The bid sum / ask sum ratio points to 132$, but if volume does not ramp up the price may not drop so much.
If however volume rises, then it's possible to overshoot, like the 5th September, and drop towards 120$.

PS. WOW! It's going down! The whales flinched! WHEEE!

PS2. The bid sum / ask sum ratio now points to 124$, because the drop worsened it.

PS3. Oh crap! Blockchained is down, I'm half blind...
2696  Economy / Speculation / Re: One week call on: September 19, 2013, 09:51:22 AM
If the drop in money flow continues for some time, we may have a crash like the 5th September.
The next 2 hours are going to clarify how much we drop today.

 
2697  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 18, 2013, 10:41:41 AM
Sorry for polluting the OT. IMO the Nickel - Hydrogen reaction is not a hoax, there are several companies trying to develop
a commercial product. And Wikipedia is rubbish when it comes to mainstream science, let alone borderline science.
2698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 18, 2013, 09:19:49 AM
During the last 4 days the bid sum has been relatively stable, and the increase in ask sum of the 15th
failed to trigger a large drop, mainly due to the low volume IMO. Right now there is a drop in money flow,
remains to be seen how long it will last and if it will lead to a significant price drop.

OT, regarding energy production with a Rossi reactor, check this PDF:
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1305/1305.3913.pdf
2699  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peak/Reversal Watch on: September 17, 2013, 07:50:37 PM
Is 85$ the median price at final capitulation? If so, I doubt the 27th October is right, at least not with this shitty volume.
Middle December looks to me more probable right now, at least until volume picks up.

And about 'free energy' patents, those are BS. A technology that may change the world however, is energy out of Nickel - Hydrogen reaction ( Rossi effect ).
2700  Economy / Economics / Re: NSA is sniffing SWIFT - more reason for BTC on: September 17, 2013, 03:26:27 PM
Interesting article at Dailytech about the NSA command center:
http://www.dailytech.com/NSA+Chief+Built+Starship+Enterprise+Bridge+Sat+in+Captains+Chair+/article33383.htm
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