Si te estás tomando en serio esto te recomiendo que inviertas los 150euros que cuesta registrar el certificado.

8 chip credits for sale at market price

Please PM if interested.

I really think we are in the middle of a mining bubble that will burst very soon. Just look at the hashrate chart:



I see a lot of people entering the mining business like there's no tomorrow, blinded by the promise of profits like those that Avalon batch #1 customers and ASICminer shareholders had. This people just do not realize that difficulty is going up like crazy, and they are making their calculations at current difficulty, without even understanding what "yearly profitability decline" means. In fact, I see myriads of noobs (and "hero" members auctioning their units) that just leave the "0.61" that comes by default in the "yearly profitability decline" variable at http://bitcoinx.com/profit

That's so much failure, because it would mean that difficulty won't even double in the 12 months following the deployment of their mining equipment. I can just LOL at how wrong is that assumption.

There's a huge amount of people that do not realize that mining is ultra-competitive, ROI is not easy and that you really have to look at your power and storage costs in order to be able to mine at a small profit. In most of the cases, just buying and holding BTC is more profitable unless you pay nothing for storage and a small price for power. As I said earlier, we're going back to the point we had in 2012 with GPUs and FPGAs. Only the most competitive will survive and will only make a tiny profit, the huge return days are gone for good.

Things are getting not-so-good for batch #2, and quite ugly for batch #3. Hope they can speed up the shipping process or there will be a lot of people mining at a loss

Se confirma lo que ya se sabía: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236348.0

Esperemos que con los chips no haya más retrasos ya que Avalon no tiene la "tentación" de minar con ellos. Los chips de prueba ya han llegado con casi un mes de retraso, y en este momento 30 días pueden significar que la dificultad se dobla. Esperemos que se den prisa.

When I saw the steep increase on Avalon's batch #3 price compared to batch #2 I was upset, and I had a public argument with Yifu. Here go a couple of excerpts:



I thought: OK, we will get our unit in May, thus a 10/12 million difficulty is reasonable. You will remember that Yifu set the batch #3 price doubling the difficulty we had at that time (slightly less than 5 million), which gave a 30 days ROI for a batch #3 unit priced at 75BTC (Avalon expected difficulty to be around 10 million when we were going to receive our batch #3 units). I accepted that explanation as an honest proposal. Avalon was disappointed by the fact that some of his batch #1 customers were selling their units on Ebay with a huge mark-up, while Bitsyncom was probably still in red, so they made batch #3 customers to pay the profits for the other batches too. That was very OK to me if the units were delivered in May as promised. One month delay is acceptable too in this crazy ASIC world. But I'm afraid batch #3 customers still have a looooong way before receiving their units (July? August perhaps?), thus I'm afraid that ROI is gone for good.

Unfortunately everything happened upside down: batch #1 customers looked at the biggest potential profit, but they were charged less than any other customer because nobody was sure if Avalon was going to be able to deliver ASIC. As soon as they proved to be legit, batch #3 customers were charged a very hefty price that made ROI possible only if all the promises (delivery date basically) were kept, but they were not - therefore, batch #3 customers will very likely mine at a loss.

And by the way, difficulty is going to go x6 between end of March (when the above argument was held) and June (see bolded part). I would say it's not Yifu's fault, in fact I admire his work for having delivered the first ASICs to consumer hands, and that was greed (not his greed, but everybody's greed in this market) what set Avalon's batch #3 price tag. Nevertheless, we are approaching very fast the point in which mining will be a very competitive endeavour, where ROI is only achieved by saving every penny on electricity/storage, and where a 5% decrease in the exchange rate really shakes the miner's business plan. Making a long story short, we're going back very quickly to the same point we had just a few months ago (pre-bubble) with GPUs.

What puzzles me is the fact that Bitfury already has its chips, and they plan to ship in September as KnC.

KnC has no chips whatsoever, in fact they plan to receive them in August and send them directly to production. It seems that they want to do in one month or less what takes other players at least 2/3 months.

I have to admit that the fact that Bitfury's chips are already in the wild being tested as I'm writing makes me kinda uncomfortable as a KnC customer. We are entering very fast in very competitive times, in which every week is crucial and determines if ROI will be achieved or not.

He is speaking about Trendon's father (pirate@40), who was indeed called by a forum member. That's the maximum retaliation he got after stealing +500,000BTC from those foolish enough to participate in his ponzi.

Well, he said 1.3 billion difficulty by September, that's crazy and its unlikely.

True, in fact it seems to me people is overly optimistic when discussing difficulty and ROI for September, they might be blinded by the amazing returns had by Avalon batch 1 customers and ASIC miner shareholders,but the harsh truth is that we are returning very fast to the point in which ROI is hard to achieve and saving every penny on electricity/storage is crucial.

Just check the difficulty chart on bitcoin.sipa.be

They will have 1,890 orders very soon and they claim to be able to ship sequentially hundreds units per day. And you can bet there are many multiple units orders (and with multiple i mean +10) that have not been advertised on the forum. Looking at BFL you will see how quickly orders can pile up but also how easily promises are broken.

The point is KnC plan seems to be to deploy much more than 700TH in September. Seems to be, because everything is pretty messy and unclear. What you can be sure about is that the time of easy and quick ROI is gone for good - quote me on that. This is going to get hyper competitive.

It's buried in one of those hundred pages threads about KnC. He pretty much said that the fact they were producing in batches is a myth, they will produce as many units as orders they have, they will obviously respect the queue, but nevertheless they plan to manufacture and ship hundreds of units per day, which means that a) an order placed now is shipped in September, b) being in the first 500 will give you a couple of days advantage, that's all.

The 500 thing made sense as they needed that amount of preorders to make the project happen, but in no way means they will produce in batches.

All the above are promises and wishful thinking, but based on what KnC claims if we decide to count with them for our calculations we shouldn't expect hundreds of units but thousands of them. Which seems kinda worrying for their own customers.

Just realized that all this is actually true

Long live to echos

I fuese you are being ironic here

LOL

I very much remember a post in which you said you acquired your stash in October 2012. Now you say 2011?

Si el 1.4TH es para reinvertir la cosa cambia,  ahora entiendo tu propuesta y retiro la crítica al modelo de financiación.

Me mantengo en el tema de la dificultad y los tiempos, tus cálculos (o más bien la falta de los mismos) me generan desconfianza pues no me parece que seas consciente del incremento de dificultad que se viene encima, no veo que entiendas la importancia que tiene no haber pedido aún los chips. Si ya los tuvieras en camino sería diferente.

En este momento estamos viviendo un sprint, no una carrera de fondo, los verdaderos triunfadores son los que compraron muchos Avalon batch 1 o ASIC miner a precio de IPO, ahora quedan por repartir las migas, y la viabilidad o no de la inversión se va a decidir en los primeros meses de funcionamiento de la granja. En un mes, la dificultad puede doblar. Dos meses de retraso en comprar los chips es una losa demasiado pesada, en este momento el que llega tarde es el que palma la pasta.

A tu pregunta: al que quisiera meterse ahora en el mundo de la minería buscando un retorno, le recomendaría esperar. Puede que algunos de los DIY pongan a la venta clones pocos días después de recibir sus chips pedidos el 16 de Abril. Puede que los vendan a un precio razonable, o puede que no. Hay algunos que han comprado chips en silencio para lanzar clones muy rápidamente, yo me esperaría a ver eso. Lo cierto es que no es un momento propicio para aventurarse a lo que propones, si KnC, Bitfury y BFL no entregan nada por supuesto que la granja seria rentable, pero si cumplen y tu instalación esta lista después de que ellos entreguen (Otoño) sería un desastre. KnC también puede ser una buena opción si se confirma que pueden hacer lo que prometen. Aun así, como decía los tiempos en el que el retorno era de x10 de lo invertido (en BTC) se han acabado.

EDITO: añadiria que para el que quiere meterse ahora en minería para aprender, como toma de contacto y sin importar el retorno, lo que propones es una opción. Pero en mi opinión es mejor opción comprar tu propio minero que puedes tocar y con el que puedes trastear. Invertir en "bonos" en mi opinión tiene sentido sólo si la rentabilidad potencial es muy alta.

Dicho esto, el futuro es de los intrépidos. Buena suerte

I really do not understand why some of you are considering for your calculations only 500 Jupiters (+350 GHs by KnCminer).

Wake up guys, KnC may be lying or overpromising, but they have said they will just ship hundreds of units sequentially, and that everybody ordering now will receive his units in September. The "batch 1" myth (a myth KnC itself spread) was debunked by Sam, who said on the record that they will just manufacture as many units as possible and deliver them at a rate of hundreds per day.  In fact, I know for sure that they have some orders for +20 Jupiters and KnC committed to deliver all of them in September, regardless of the position in the preorder queue, etc.

They have currently more than 1,000 paid order, that figure is increasing, and you can bet that many of those orders are for multiple units, some of them for dozens of units. If KnC does what they say (shipping sequentially thousands of units in September), they will be pretty much killing any ROI possibility for all their customers.

Es carísimo y llegas muy tarde, para que esto tuviera algún sentido el precio debería ser la mitad y tendrías que haber hecho el pedido de chips a mediados de Abril. Dos meses de retraso son una eternidad en este mundo.

Lo de querer financiar la totalidad de la instalación y encima quere sacar un pico vendiendo sólo la mitad del hashrate es un abuso, así no vas a encontrar ningún inversor serio que aporte una cantidad importante.

Además, esto me da que pensar que no sabes en la que te estás metiendo:


Ese no es el peor de los casos ni de coña. La dificultad va camino de multiplicarse por 100 en mucho menos de lo que esperas, pocos meses, sólo piensa que cada Júpiter son 350 GHs y dicen que van a entregar MILES en Septiembre. Por supuesto que es posible que KnC fracase y que ni BFL ni Bitfury entreguen nada, pero que presentes 0,8BTC por GHs como "peor de los casos" demuestra claramente que no sabes de lo que hablas (lo siento, pero es así).

Si te vas a meter en un proyecto así al menos ilústrate un poco sobre cómo intentar hacer proyecciones de dificultad, este es un buen sitio para empezar: organofcorti.blogspot.com


Por supuesto que te gusta. Financiar la totalidad de una instalación de 2.8TH con dinero ajeno y compartiendo los beneficios de sólo 1.4TH es un chollazo para ti. No arriesgas un duro, tienes 1.4TH para a ti a coste cero y en los 1.400 BTC que recaudarías ya hay beneficios para ti desde el minuto 1.

Read carefully:


Best quote ever

Read carefully:


Best quote ever