$180 by next Friday, i promise.
This is going to be a terrible news for me if you fulfill on your promise. I want to buy back at double digits you know. Can you postpone your promise by 10 - 14 days? LOL. Don't feed the trolls, please. The best time to buy back will be after 2 strong downward sub-waves, in order to profit from the fake return to bull market. But it's too early to tell when this will happen, just keep your eyes on the market. Could be 10 - 14 days as you mentioned.
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$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013
Interesting. What's that supposed to be? The bottom most price after capitulation? If so, I believe 14th September is too early, I expect that about 10 days later. And the bottom depends a lot on the status of $ withdrawals from Gox, so IMO it's too early to get a precise number. If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.
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IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments. The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st. I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts. What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5. Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.
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If you mean that I'm waiting for sub 60s since 2 months ago, you are mistaken. I sold at 120 after buying at 110, and shall buy again at the bottom of this upcoming drop, because I believe that price will rebound enough to make a profit. As for sub 60s, it's too early to predict that as capitulation price. If Gox $ withdrawals return to normal (maybe, maybe not, I don't know), then a bottom at about 60 is possible.
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The price level has been sustained by panic buyers, against market indicators, for several days, but now it's over. I got bored watching this drama unfold in slow motion, but in a few hours a panic sale may start.
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Does anyone have any reasonable speculation about how many bitcoins may have been secured by this 'whale' buyer(s) since the July turnaround? It must be an immense amount.
My estimation was 40k - 50k, but I suspect a good amount were already sold at the 120 - 125 price level.
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IMO the bull party is over. What can be seen in the charts is the topmost Elliot sub-wave, with it's 5 sub-sub-waves, although the last one is about to begin, and may be ill defined. I am certain that a correction is coming, dropping the price to the 112 - 114 range, followed by a (slow?) rebound to maybe 117 - 118. The uber-bulls are going to interpret this as a bear trap, but I believe it will be the prelude to more drops, after a couple of days.
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Yes, even nicer would be a seperate thread for forecasters, where they can make their public prognostications for grading.
Agreed, I want a forecasters' thread too. I'm almost ready to post my next prediction there.
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If 125 was the top, then by the 27th price should be between 115 and 120 IMO.
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It's funny that nobody believed that 'fluke' except chodpaba himself at that time. I expressed a strong disbelief in the 124 $ on August 21st prediction. If I would have based my transactions on the 'fluke' I would have done much better...
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You must be joking, right?
There is no chance for a parabolic rise. It would require to break through several levels of resistance for which there simply isn't enough money on Gox. The only reasonable question is if the 125 resistance level will be broken, allowing for a push to 130 - 135, and that's it. Right now even that looks overly optimistic.
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The bubble period that deflated starting at the end of May was driven by the bid sum. Bid sum rose a lot, bubble inflated, then bid sum dropped a lot, bubble deflated. But the current bubble period is rather driven by the ask sum, and less sensitive to the bid sum. Considering that Fort Gox keeps the bid sum from sharply dropping, the only way to deflate is a massive increase in the ask sum. Or plainly explained, lots of coins at lower prices to be offered. So far, I haven't seen this happening, but maybe the next days it will happen. If this doesn't happen, we're kind of stuck in limbo.
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Yes, I know you meant 80k BTC, just wasn't clear in my reply, only put the BTC sign at the first sum.
After reading your estimation, I looked again at the Elliot waves, and realized that I didn't count the rebound of August 9th as the first sub-wave. When counting that one too, we have hit the third and most powerful sub-wave of wave 5. I expect a 4th sub-wave to happen, drop to about 114, then rise to about 120 again, and then some erratic behavior for several days, followed by the 2 large drops with a rebound between them and a larger rebound after the second drop. We'll see soon enough...
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Ok, thanks for the answer. I suspected that some 40k - 50k BTC missing from the order book would add to the 19k till 130 we see in the order book. And there are also those who got stuck at the end of May. So the 80k estimate of yours is plausible. But the up uP UP crowd claims that those coins missing from the order book are out of Gox.
I sold yesterday at 120 (not great, I know) and am waiting for the price to drop. After reading your evaluation, I'll just wait and see.
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The erosion of momentum already pretty much guarantees a drop to $105...
It's already baked in.
Wow, that's a bold prediction, if I would make it I would get laughed at. In fact, I have been laughed at because I complained that panic buyers don't let the price drop to 115. I expected a third rally up to 130, then a drop to about 105, in 2 phases. Do you say there won't be any rally to 130?
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Damn panic buyers, they don't let the price slip to 115!
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For me, the previous rally in this bubble period was on the 14th August, our definition of terms seems different. And I do expect another one in 4 - 5 days, rising to 130 or more. So don't confuse me with a stubborn bear. I do believe however that we'll see most of the missing coins after the bullishness of the market gets exhausted.
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Actually, it's a smart whale strategy: why dump when you can herd sheeple into buying your coins? The big whale needs more $ to kickstart the next rally, which could rise to 130, given the bullishness of the market.
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Some people couldn't wait for 1 day to buy lower, that's worrisome. Anyway, now it's only 3k until 111, if someone wants to sell big.
Where are you seeing that? I see 3000btc would get us down into 116 range. 111 would take 15000btc sold. Fake buy wall is herding sheeple into buying at 123. It appears and dissapears, to dissuade a large dump into it.
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Some people couldn't wait for 1 day to buy lower, that's worrisome. Anyway, now it's only 3k until 111, if someone wants to sell big.
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