If we take the average of $10,000 in the halvening game of El duderino_
We win the BTCulls.
< $10,000 - 91
> $10,000 - 119
I am with the 91, but I hope the 119 are easy winners, by a mile. If that doesn't make sense, let me put it like this: Either way, it's inevitable soon enough that $10K will be a shrinking dot in the rear view mirror. It's just I think it might take a bit longer than the 119 do. |
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OK fair point, but I do not mean to endorse criminality. However, I do think privacy robust enough to prevent even the state from following your financial transactions is important and should be available to everyone. In that respect I was pointing out that only Monero boasts true, tested 'agency-proof' privacy. In some places in this world that could be a life-saver for someone who has committed no crime. |
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Looking at lines and tea leaves (and stating the obvious): I always watch the 200/50 MAs and where they're heading. On the 1 day, it looks like we should be going gold again around March/April, just before the halving (surprise, surprise). This means a rise before then.  The wedge - which is descending and therefore ultimately bullish - is picking the recent (local) double bottom from the mid-2019 mini bubble and the descent from that high. There can still be plunges lower within the wedge, but there is no doubt in my mind the break out will be up out of it. The only question is how soon. EDIT: Apologies for the heresy of using Finex, but my stamp tab had fib lines all over it  |
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Lord knows where you found that Jojo - but you made my evening.
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Oh god, that video confirms every stereotype about the British and how they look.
That we're all 3ft high and wear pink? Where is the problem with that? He is just heightist and pinkist. We vertically challenged Brits must stand up for our clothing preferences! |
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All quiet on the speculation front, chaps?
Things not too shabby right now, Monero is looking healthy... up around 20% in a week?
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This 52 location threat from Trump is most likely exactly that, just a threat. Iran aren’t going to risk going up against the most powerful nation in the world.
True. They aren't totally stupid, but their model will be asymmetrical warfare. If you are massively outgunned you don't go head on into battle with your enemy. e.g. Osama Bin Laden struck the US with 19 Saudis armed with box cutters.... It achieved the result he wanted. The IRA fought for their objectives against the British army with small cells of determined men, using weapons like trucks full of fertiliser. So, Iran will strike back, but it will be cyber attacks, kidnappings, mining oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking US assets (embassies etc) in outpost areas using local, sympathetic (funded) groups... The USA equally cannot risk a land war in Iran, and this is where Trump is illogical in ratcheting up the pressure. Ultimately what is his plan? They didn't have one after going into Iraq (and look what happened there) they don't have a plan now. Does he carpet bomb Iran if they blow up a tanker or an embassy? It won't be WWIII - but it could turn out incredibly badly in unintended ways - like Americans not being safe in many parts of the world and US assets being at risk for many years to come. Only the military Industrial complex, the Iranian regime and possibly Trump's re-election prospects will benefit from this. |
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Indeed. Momentum is what we need IMO, and that requires volume. Moar volume!
Yep. It does look on the weak side, no real increase in volume is hardly inspiring - but I'll take it. |
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Wen war 3.0? BREAKING: Trump says that the US will target 52 Iranian sites if Tehran hits any Americans or American assets In case you were wondering about the POTUS Deutsche bank story... a chance to make up your own mind, while it's still available: (Not everyone wants it read it seems)  The full docs still available through link on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ericlevai/status/1213192607850872832 |
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I reckon we are back roughly in line with the last halving, after deviating in the middle of last year.
There may well be a run-up blip, but it will disappoint most...
So using a proportional overlay of 2016 to 2020, I will disappoint MicG, (sorry, mate) and pick....
8551-8600
Are haikus required?
I hope I am wrong
And am guessing way too low
Bitcoin's halving price
Well done Mic - another great game.
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Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving  In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of.Maybe good to take a date again and the closest price that moment... instead of the highest until the date... Yes, as the game could be an anti climax if it spiked up next week and then says down for over four months. Day of halving is around 14th May, it will get more precise as we get closer, of course - and it could get volatile. Drama until the end that way... |
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EDIT: you English natives seems to be friends of many words without so much content. how does it come?
Interesting. I heard a smart German say something once about the English. He said 'Germans say what they mean, they don't realise that English have a huge lexicon of words to call upon to avoid saying what they mean. Indeed they sometimes mean the opposite' In a meeting for instance a German will think if he makes a comment and someone around the table replies with "interesting" it is a positive thing. Actually it is usually a word that someone who is English will use to interrupt you in order to stop you talking any further. The German was quite right. ok, interesting.  (true meaning: very interesting) but let it extend to domains of personal relationships like with friends or with your wive/girlfriend. why is it sometimes better to circle around the very truth? because is it to brutal and offense? are women or gays to sensitive to receive it on point? or is it for women or gays more interesting to go around it for a while. it's like a game, right? it will make life more colorful and not so boring for them, right? --> but it will consume more energy which is not necessary if you go the direct way. so JJG make a lot of words because it is more colorful for him to write many words and his subconsciousness tells him it would for us also be more colorful which is not. so conclusion for my life exploring could be: all is easy if you have enough energy to spend but if you haven't it could become very ugly. I didn't say anything about women or gays, I can't quite see what that has to do with anything about the usage of English. I think I am probably correct in saying there are just as many women or gay people as a proportion of the English population as there are of the German population. I also happily assume that just as many Germans as English think that sweeping assumptions, stereotyping them negatively is not exactly a display of intelligence. I was just trying to explain why the English don't always say what they mean. Then I tried to explain what 'interesting' meant, having used the word. I am of course, English. Please excuse me if I was too subtle. |
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JJG squabbling...
Good lord. You twisted almost everything I said into something I did not mean and then wagged your finger at me. I am going to be much clearer: Why did I unmute you?!?!? You are an asshat. Mate, it is Thursday. I think WO rules mean you could simply have said STFU JJG. Would probably have been easier |
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In 2021 for sure, I’m not certain of that in 2020 but would love to be wrong.
My feeling as well ... the increase in 2020 is probably modest, but I expect / hope that we reach a new ATH in 2021 or 2022. Main reason; the cycles are getting more spread out, and the halving is probably more anticipated now than the last time (more energy efficient miners, and so on). So I don't expect any fireworks starting before Q3 / Q4 2020. I'd love to be wrong as well though, of course! There is as yet no evidence that the cycle is lengthening. Any real mooning in 2020 would be (if anything) a tad early as four years from 2017 would mean 2021. This year's halving will be almost seven weeks earlier than in 2016 which may have some effect, but I doubt a massive one, cycle-wise. After the last halving the price spent months doing little until towards the end of 2016, and it didn't break the ATH until into early 2017. It ended 2016 only a little over twice the price it was at the start of that year. If a four year cycle is intact, the price was ahead of itself in the middle of last year, but it is now back roughly in line with a repeat of 2015 / 2016. The model (if it were to exactly repeat) would see a spike around the halving and then a dip... then a spike up (but not ATH) around November December this year (2020). The seven weeks earlier may affect things with that timeline and pull an ATH into this year - but in any case we already veered off it once quite massively, so what honey badger will do is obviously far from predictable with any certainty. A lengthening cycle is neither proven nor disproven, yet. That said, so far it's more likely IMHO that if we are to have another 'mooning' it will be late in 2021 - with the ATH broken possibly in late 2020, but more likely early 2021. Just my thoughts at the start of this halving year. My gut instinct says: Trust Satoshi's design, be patient, but stay strapped in. |
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EDIT: you English natives seems to be friends of many words without so much content. how does it come?
Interesting. I heard a smart German say something once about the English. He said 'Germans say what they mean, they don't realise that English have a huge lexicon of words to call upon to avoid saying what they mean. Indeed they sometimes mean the opposite' In a meeting for instance a German will think if he makes a comment and someone around the table replies with "interesting" it is a positive thing. Actually it is usually a word that someone who is English will use to interrupt you in order to stop you talking any further. The German was quite right. |
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and in other exasperating things, the first word of the greatest poem...  'arma virumque cano' nothing has changed Nope, not much ever changes. And with the current price, one wonders... Tantaene animis caelestibus irae? |
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Mic - I think your $50 boxes work fine, mate.
It's your game, so you call it... but getting too complex is not a great idea - in my humble opinion.
It was ok as it was, but boxes does make it a little more fair and stops people gaming it by going 'one less' or 'one more' than another guess and reducing chances for another hopeful participant.
If most people guess between (say) 5K and 25K you will have 400 boxes on offer - with an inevitable cluster towards the middle, tapering out to the extreme high/low ends. That's plenty of choices, and (relatively) simple.
Setting the actual time of the end of the comp will be another dilemma for you to think on. The halving will be in a particular block - at a particular time - but not precisely knowable in advance. You may want to set it as 'midnight UTC' on the day of the first mined block containing the new reward (or at a time X days after this).
That way will mean there is an easily verifiable 'on the record' price. In the event it falls between two boxes you can look to the price to two decimal places to sort it out.
All simple enough - but just my suggestions.
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