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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2017, 10:34:13 AM
So Roger Ver is a Bitcoin hater now?

Haters are ok because they are harmless. He is worse: A bad actor.

You can say you love bitcoin 100 times a day, but it's your actions that define you. And his actions undermine bitcoin as a currency and store of value.
282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2017, 12:14:31 PM
I think it'll be way safer for BTC to go into Segwit, after LTC does.

It's unlikely to find all possible bugs on BTC's testnet, so LTC can serve as a test platform.
283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 20, 2017, 07:41:47 PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/60gem4/jihan_wus_latest_weibo_post_looks_like_an_offer/

Jihan willing to talk is a GREAT sign! I really believe once he folds the scaling debate will start coming to a conclusion. The fact that he admits that he finds 2nd layer solutions a threat is telling, but he will realize that he cannot force the rest of the community to hold back on achievements to benefit the miners. A prosperous $2K+ bitcoin is much better for him than half a bitcoin with less users

Paradoxically, in the long-long run (20yr horizon), nobody will care about l2 solutions as l1 capabilities will be more than adequate to satisfy the volume of direct txs (except if we have unforseen spikes in kbytes per tx, like quantumproof signatures). L2 solutions are only* needed in the short and mid term, as block sizes can't grow too big right now without centralizing bitcoin, yet txs/sec must increase.

* L2 solutions might also be needed for adding more functionality, beyond txs.
284  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Cuckoo Cycle proof-of-work: $5000 in bounties on: March 20, 2017, 09:06:14 AM
I tried to compile this but failed due to non avx2 use, so it did compile some of the files... so I run cuckoo28:

perf stat -d -d -d ./cuckoo28

Further perf stats indicate a lot of overhead here (the cmpxchg stalls the jump?): http://imgur.com/a/zwEmP
(data obtained by running perf top while ./cuckoo28 was running).

Given that this was on a single thread, couldn't this be done with plain unlocked moves? Also, in multithreaded applications, would it be possible to gamble faster unlocked moves trading data accuracy in order to produce a faster version with possible data corruption?

Indeed, for single threaded use (-t 1, which is the default) one should run the singlethreaded
./cuckoo28st instead. That one doesn't use atomic updates like the cmpxchg.

For multi-threaded use, increasing the number of threads also increases the likelihood of overlooking cycles
due to data-races. It's not clear though at how many threads the use of atomics becomes well-advised.

Aha, ok, yes much better now. I haven't got an avx2 cpu so it breaks down when I try to compile everything and I had just some of the files to check out. Btw, I see that there are some versions with very large ram windows, which obviously exceed cache levels. There is a (v)movntdq(a) instruction (sse 4.1+ I think) that bypasses cache operations for faster mem writing if the data involved aren't going to be cached in any useful way. You might want to check whether it's useful for this case.
285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 20, 2017, 07:23:39 AM
Maybe all of this is just a pretty nice trick of JIhan BU. He must know the consequences of his actions in the price, so it is possible that he just shorted big time before and is now waiting to rebuy and then lay down his arms watching how price shoots to $1500 making him way richer than before.

Maybe Jihan BU is not that insane after all.

I remember something, like a year ago, when there was the 'agreement' between some dev delegation and the miners, where I read there was some kind of pressure to get to an agreement because apparently someone had gone long.

The economic attack scenario is not out of the question, where fud or actual attacks are introduced to harm the price which was pre-shorted.

In investments/finance/economics, there are two powers which are of great importance:

1) The ability to predict the market
2) The ability to direct the market

...as in both cases you can profit big.

Miners can launch economic attacks due to (2) and then profit.
286  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: [INFO] Συζήτηση για την Ισοτιμία on: March 19, 2017, 08:24:05 PM
Αμα θελαμε central banking, κραταγαμε και το ευρω Tongue

Δεν αναφέρομαι στην αποκεντρωμένη φύση του δικτύου αλλά στην ομάδα που αποφασίζει και κατά συνέπεια επιβάλλει αλλαγές στον κώδικα. Αυτή η ομάδα αποτελείται από πέντε άτομα χωρίς να ελέγχεται από κανέναν. Χρειάζεται ένα δημοκρατικό σύστημα διακυβέρνησης με κανόνες και λογοδοσία.

Οι αλλαγες δεν επιβαλλονται. Οποιος θελει, τρεχει οτι software θελει - αρκει οι κανονες του δικτυου που ειναι δεδομενοι, να τηρουνται.

Πρακτικα, αν εχει καποιος γνωσεις, μπορει να φτιαξει μεχρι και το δικο του implementation. Καποιοι το χουν κανει, και σε διαφορετικες γλωσσες απο C++ που τρεχει το core.
287  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: [INFO] Συζήτηση για την Ισοτιμία on: March 19, 2017, 07:39:13 PM

Απ'οτι φαινεται η πραγματικη χρηση ειναι ανυπαρκτη.

Το marketshare δλδ δεν αντιπροσωπευει ουτε transactions, ουτε volume transacted πανω στο δικτυο, αλλα speculation.

Σήμερα ίσως. Aυτό όμως δε σημαίνει ότι τα πράγματα δεν θα βελτιωθούν και άλλο για τα alts ή ότι δεν θα χειροτερεύσουν για το btc, τουλάχιστον η "αγορά" αυτό δείχνει κατα τη γνώμη μου. Το speculation τώρα, ζει και βασιλεύει, το btc οτι ήταν να δώσει φαίνεται πως το έδωσε με το halving και την αναμονή για το EFT. Πάμε για άλλα τώρα....

Παντως δεν υπαρχει ομοιομορφια στα alts στο θεμα της χρησης... δλδ υπαρχουν πολυ μεγαλα alts με σχεδον 0 χρηση και "μικρα" (οπως το steem) που κανουν χιλιαδες txs λογω του blockchain τους και των πληρωμων που γινονται σ'αυτο.
288  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: [INFO] Συζήτηση για την Ισοτιμία on: March 19, 2017, 07:36:55 PM
που θα επιβάλλει λύσεις.

Αμα θελαμε central banking, κραταγαμε και το ευρω Tongue
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2017, 07:25:40 PM
What about it? What implications are you trying to get at?

Larger blocks require more resources which harms decentralization.

Indeed, but technological resources are increased over time, thus allowing higher capabilities at same costs (over the years).

As I wrote a few posts ago, in 97, my bandwidth, cpu, storage, ram, was 1/1000th of what I now have.

My pc could probably process ...1kb blocks back then... now 1mb... in 20 years, maybe 1gb.

Satoshi never intended for the 1mb to be set indefinitely. He said, we'll raise it when needed.

Obviously you don't want to have too much, because then it hurts in decentralization and leaves the door open for spamming the blockchain.

It just needs a proper balance.

I think the choices that exist right now may not be enough to gather a good consensus (like 90%+) which may in turn create the need for a new proposal.

- BU is trash, nobody in their right mind wants it.
- Segwit will not get adopted because it increases "complexity" and it makes some miners uncomfortable (translation for: "I like the bitcoin I know, I don't want it to change, with the remote chance it introduces unknown risks")

So, given that neither will go ahead, we'll have to make some other arrangement like a 2mb upgrade in the short term, if we don't want to stick with 1mb. But this option doesn't exist right now and should be programmed and provided by core (=reputable source of code).
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2017, 02:36:15 AM
Is Adam the president?

No clue - although I doubt it Tongue
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2017, 02:24:30 AM
You would think after the destruction of Hearn and others who try to become "leaders" people would have learned that is a fool's errand. Satoshi's example wasn't just a cute disappearing trick, it is a fundamental necessity to the security model for decentralised monetary network.

BU has sorted this out too... A Bitcoin ...President Cheesy

https://www.bitcoinunlimited.info/articles

Quote
Article 2: Confederation
...
President: a publicly identified (real-life identity is known) BU Member who is responsible for the ongoing activities of the confederation. The president shall resolve BUIP number conflicts, organize BUIP discussion (in the forum designated by the secretary), and schedule/initiate voting (within the limits specified in these articles).

...you can't make this stuff up. I thought the reddit image might have been tampered or something and went to check myself.

...A president.

...A fucking president.
292  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: [INFO] Συζήτηση για την Ισοτιμία on: March 18, 2017, 06:11:14 AM
Όσον αφορά τη συνολική κεφαλαιοποίηση, σταδιακά το ποσοστό των υπόλοιπων ψηφιακών νομισμάτων αυξάνεται και ήδη το Ethereum έφτασε σχεδόν στο 25% της κεφαλαιοποίησης του Bitcoin.

Τα ίδια έγραφα πρίν μερικούς μήνες οτι τα altcoin ισχυροποιούν την θέση τους ενώ το bitcoin χάνει συνεχώς μερίδιο.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1208781.msg16727083#msg16727083

Τώρα βέβαια φαίνεται πολύ καλύτερα .

http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Οι συναλλαγες στο blockchain του dash (τελευταια 17 λεπτα):

Block      Txs
638211   4
638210   6
638209   11
638208   15
638207   9
638206   3
638205   5
638204   4

Απ'οτι φαινεται η πραγματικη χρηση ειναι ανυπαρκτη.

Το marketshare δλδ δεν αντιπροσωπευει ουτε transactions, ουτε volume transacted πανω στο δικτυο, αλλα speculation.

Για τη φουσκα των smart contracts του eth, δε νομιζω να χρειαζεται να σχολιασω. Πρακτικα δεν υπαρχει σοβαρη χρηση - ποσο μαλλον να δικαιολογει το marketcap του, εστω και ως speculation.

293  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: [INFO] Συζήτηση για την Ισοτιμία on: March 18, 2017, 06:06:43 AM
Το πρόβλημα της επεκτασιμότητας είναι σοβαρό γιατί στην ουσία αποκλείει την είσοδο νέων χρηστών και συνεπώς την εισροή φρέσκου χρήματος που θα προκαλέσει άνοδο της ισοτιμίας. Όσο περισσότεροι καινούργιοι χρήστες τόσο πιο ακριβή και αργή γίνεται η χρήση του Bitcoin δικτύου. Οι χρήστες αυτοί θα αναζητήσουν άλλες φθηνότερες και ταχύτερες λύσεις για τις συναλλαγές τους και θα ενισχύσουν τα οικοσυστήματα των υπόλοιπων κρυπτονομισμάτων. Το Bitcoin συμπεριφέρεται όπως η Nokia λίγο πριν την πτώση της. Η ηγετική ομάδα της Nokia αγνόησε τη δυναμική του ανερχόμενου τότε Android και επέμενε στη λύση των Windows phone, ενός ανώριμου και με μικρή βάση χρηστών λειτουργικού. Παρότι γίγαντας των κινητών τηλεφώνων, με φανατικούς οπαδούς, απέτυχε να ικανοποιήσει τις ανάγκες των πελατών της και σε λίγα χρόνια πρακτικά εξαφανίσθηκε. Η μεγάλη βάση χρηστών του Bitcoin και η αναγνωρισιμότητά του δεν είναι εγγύηση για το μέλλον.

Το λαθος στο παραπανω σκεπτικο ειναι οτι τα cryptocurrencies ειναι ευρειας χρησης. Πρακτικα δεν ειναι, εχουν πολυ περιορισμενη χρηση, ποσο μαλλον για μικροσυναλλαγες.

Εστω οτι το bitcoin μπορει να κανει 300.000 συναλλαγες τη μερα και ενα altcoin σα το litecoin ή το dash, τα 4πλασια (1.2εκ).

Εστω το bitcoin κανει 300.000 συναλλαγες x 1000$ μεσο ορο
Εστω ενα litecoin ή dash κανει 1.200.000 συναλλαγες x 10$ μεσο ορο

....τοτε το ενα δικτυο διακινει 300εκ $ τη μερα και το αλλο 12εκ $ τη μερα - παροτι κανει 4πλασιες συναλλαγες (αριθμητικα).

Το πρωτο δικτυο αναγκαστικα ειναι πιο πολυτιμο απ'το δευτερο λογω τζιρου. Επισης φαινεται οτι το scaling εχει 2 πλευρες. Η μια πλευρα ειναι ο αριθμος συναλλαγων, η αλλη πλευρα ειναι το value transacted per tx. Το 2ο συνεχιζει να κανει scale κανονικα (με κυριο αντικτυπο τα fee υψηλης προτεραιοτητας - τα οποια για μια μεταφορα 1000$ πχ ειναι αστεια - αλλα οχι τοσο αστεια για τα 10$).
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2017, 04:04:01 AM
So... The big plan was to buy back at 1100?

I think there is no big plan - today at least. No reasons, nothing on the horizon, etc, etc, so I think it has to be altcoin profits liquidated in the BTC market (tends to be more liquid than the alt/$ markets). The altcoin sphere picked up a couple billions, so a few big dumps in BTC could be expected.

On the other hand, one would ask for a certain equilibrium - meaning that if altcoins get pumped, then one would also expect BTC buys leveling the field... Seemingly that has not been the case, which means the pumpers already had the BTC. It's the ex-altcoin holders who went for the BTC and then the bank.

So BTC buys alts, those who picked BTC are cashing out. I don't really see anything else here.

The fork FUD is here for a few weeks and didn't affect all that much, and if anything, BU has lost even more credibility the last couple of days due to its low-quality problems (remote exploits). Generally all FUD has had a minor effect, whether it was articles claiming low prices after etf decline, PBOC actions, or fork FUD...
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2017, 11:13:07 PM
Looks like that this dip is just the begening
Looks like you sold at the bottom, didn't you? Cheesy

More like in the middle Smiley

Who sold at the bottom?

Probably some altcoiner who cashed out his multi-XXX% profits and didn't even care for a 10% drop in BTC Tongue
296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2017, 07:17:31 PM
^the only issue here is that lightning network scheme is gambling on the blocksize staying the same!

You do realize that segwit fits at least 1.7mb of txs per block, right?
297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2017, 12:55:50 AM
(assuming scaling is solved technologically - which is a certainty over the long run, as processors, storage, networks become better).

I don't think so if you had to do everything on-chain. You need to get bitcoin to something like 5000 TPS for it to be used as a currency and valued for it's utility instead of a settlement layer, which it's not very good at because bitcoin is a poor store of value compared to metals.  Going the settlement layer route is a recipe for failure in the long run and that's what all on-chain scaling is.

20 years ago (q1 1997), I had a 486/133 (oc @160 roughly around a P90), 16MB RAM, a 4 GB HDD and a 28.8 or 33kbps modem.

In 20 years, processing power/storage/networks have seen gains of 1000x or more.

In 20 years, if we get another 1000x, we'll easily cover 5000TPS and more. I think we'll now see more than 1000x, as AI is introduced in technological research and development - and there is a lot of things that we currently perform in an unoptimized manner.

Going back to 97, if we run Bitcoin back then, it would be considered DOA - a joke that can't even do a tx/sec, and that would demand enormous CPU power, network resources for the home user, filling their HDD fast, etc etc. But now, in 2017, it's "ok" for use.

In 20 years from now it will be able to do way more than visa level txs. On-chain. And that's assuming zero progress in software solutions (which of course won't be the case).

In a way, Bitcoin cannot be judged statically, with the tech of a certain era, as Bitcoin's capabilities can multiply with technological progression. Technological progression is what ensures that Bitcoin will scale. It's not a matter of if, but when. When will people be able to run nodes that handle thousands of tx/sec, from their home connection, with their home pc or other device? Is it 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040? That's the only question...
298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2017, 12:12:41 AM
The voting mechanism of bitcoin is supposed to be where a Nash equilibrium exists so nobody can collude on any change, so the only changes that can go through are non-zero sum game win/win changes for all.

I think the problem lies in the external vs internal game theory aspect.

The internal game theory (incentives and disincentives of players within the ecosystem of bitcoin) are theoretically ok. The problem begins with the external game theory. Meaning that actors outside bitcoin (say banks, governments / agencies) can pay bad miners more than their block reward losses for misbehaving.

So there can be a paradox where the internal game theory of disincentivizing a miner to misbehave might be adequate (the miner will behave ok for fear of not losing funds), but this will not be adequate if parties from outside the ecosystem (banks, governments / agencies) are willing to fund bad actors with multiple times the money that they would earn through honest mining.

And then you have people saying, oh if you find a block, I'll give you 2x/5x/10x this block reward, as long as you run this very "innocent" software for your mining node Tongue

The miner would easily go that route, especially if he had little to lose in terms of invested hardware in the long run. In another paradoxical way, mining centralization and heavy mining investments (which act as a disincentive to disrupt bitcoin), have delayed the corruption of short-sighted / bribed PoW mining. If mining was done by ordinary people with ordinary hardware, who wouldn't sign up for a pool that promised +XXX% payout - thus handing out majority voting to corrupt pools?

I think the invested vote (PoW + PoS hybrid), where the stakeholders in Bitcoin act as a last line of defense to corrupt mining, might be a better way to go about it - but this too can be bought out as third parties can afford to lose their stake value because from an external-game theory perspective, if it costs you, say, 10 billion USD to buy a stake in BTC and then burn it to the ground (by choosing to harm BTC with this vote), it's still more profitable than having the multi-trillion fiat or banking systems go bust due to BTC succeeding (assuming scaling is solved technologically - which is a certainty over the long run, as processors, storage, networks become better).
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2017, 06:42:25 PM
If lack of near unanimous consensus on a major decision is enough to kill bitcoin, then bitcoin was never a good idea to begin with.

Bitcoin was designed with the assumption that there will be major decisions that must be made even in the absence of near-unanimous consensus.

Protocols, not just bitcoin, don't work in the absence of consensus. One peer expects certain behavior from another peer, and if that isn't the case, the protocol doesn't work as intended. You can't have one peer saying that the block size is X, the other saying no it is Y and the block is invalid, or that the number of coins is A and another saying no it is B trying to invalidate A.

In order for protocols to work properly, practically everyone using them has to agree on what is valid and what isn't valid behavior. If a modified http or smtp server uses messages that a client doesn't understand, a page won't work or an email won't get sent. That's what's at stake here, hence the incompatibility of the various "implementations", hence the possibility of forking in at least 3 incompatible coins (the stalled chain, a BU chain, a BTC-different algo chain). If this proceeds, then any disagreement can be used by bad actors in the future to create more and more forks, until BTC becomes a joke.

The primary issue that needs to get fixed in bitcoin is not scaling. It's removing the possibility of contentious forks through "disagreements", which represent an open attack vector against bitcoin itself.

As for the price action, it reminds me of the 400 range when the prior fork FUD was ongoing and people were like "who bought at 380, price should be at 200 or lower".
300  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Open Letter to GMaxwell and Sincere Rational Core Devs on: March 11, 2017, 01:46:08 AM


I never said Bitcoin is ideal money, nor stable in value. I said it's supplementary / alternative money and that deflationary criticism makes an erroneous assumption that bitcoin is the only currency available - when clearly it is not (it has to compete with metals, fiat, altcoins, etc).

If you are in a quest to find ideal money, you won't find it anywhere because stable value (in monetary terms) is in itself an "ideal".
Now that you understand what is being proposed, I can use words to explain to you:  in this thread I explain how John Nash spent 20 years using esoteric lecture and writing to explain to our future civilization exactly how a stable money is going to come about, and that his argument is based on bitcoin as its premise.

Ok, where does that leave us - in practical terms. Meaning, if you had the power to implement change of some kind, in some sectors, what would that be?
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