I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD  The known price history of Bitcoin is roughly 4 years. You're attempting to predict 16 years ahead?I still like the prediction though but would expect something halvings to have happened and the price could easily go above 10k.  Wilhelm: It is good that we are NOT relying upon your math....  I calculate 2020 to be 6 years from NOW, not 16 years from now.  By the way, the $10,750 estimate seems a little bearish to me, too... given BTC's history and totality of circumstances, including slipperyslope's theory of exponential growth during the adoption phase.. and NO reason to believe that we are NOT currently in the midst of adoption.... even in early adoption regarding BTC. |
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Maybe the November 2013 bubble was the last one. That would be a bummer, huh? Or maybe masterluc was right, and we're in for a multi-year bear market. Fun stuff!
LINK?  or it didn't happen. |
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Chicken feet  YEP, Soy Chicken feet. I bought 10 of them, and got two bonus ones... They are yummy, and better cold, IMHBO. I thought that you were ignoring me, Shroomie? |
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Today, I was able to confirm both the good luck and the superstition with 777
I was in my local Chinese town to-go restaurant, and I told the gentleman behind the counter that i wanted 6 barbecued chicken wings and 10 soy chicken feet. He was NOT sure about what I said and he asked the lady next to him to translate into chinese.
When he weighed up the chicken wings, I saw the price came to $7.xx, and I had not really noticed the details of the price, I was just thinking, "shit more than $7.xx for 6 chicken wings." Don't get me wrong, they were big-ass chicken wings, but still I was thinking about the price, and as the guy was acknowledging the price, he was getting really excited about how lucky I was and kept pointing at the wings and the box and going "oh, oh, oh..."
I then glanced back at the price on the scale, and it was $7.77, and I just smiled and nodded in agreement with the guy, even though I was thinking that it was NOT such a big deal. Then as he weighed my 10 soy chicken feet, he wrote down the price and threw in two extra soy chicken feet.. and he kind of winked at me. Then I thought, "oh, there is something to the luck of $7.77 b/c I just scored two extra soy chicken feet out of the deal."
Anyhow, rumor about lucky 7s is true in the Chinese community and confirmed by experience of two extra soy chicken feet.
Edit: BTW... I was thinking that since 6 chicken wings was $7.77, then 5 chicken wings would have been $6.66 and 7 chicken wings would have been $8.88.. just gotta get lucky, or unlucky with the exact weight of each chicken wing.
4 and 7, particularly 4, is more considered as bad rather than good in Chinese culture. "4" sounds like "die", and "7" is also related to death. Commemorative banknote with 4 or 7 in the serial number will carry a lesser premium. Just search "無47" (No 4 and 7) ( https://www.google.com.hk/search?q=%E7%84%A147 ) and you will find lots of ads of commemorative banknote trading In other words, the guy in the restaurant did NOT know his proper training in superstitions... He probably had gone to Vegas too frequently... and figured 7s were lucky... NOT realizing that he is chinese. |
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Today, I was able to confirm both the good luck and the superstition with 777
I was in my local Chinese town to-go restaurant, and I told the gentleman behind the counter that i wanted 6 barbecued chicken wings and 10 soy chicken feet. He was NOT sure about what I said and he asked the lady next to him to translate into chinese.
When he weighed up the chicken wings, I saw the price came to $7.xx, and I had not really noticed the details of the price, I was just thinking, "shit more than $7.xx for 6 chicken wings." Don't get me wrong, they were big-ass chicken wings, but still I was thinking about the price, and as the guy was acknowledging the price, he was getting really excited about how lucky I was and kept pointing at the wings and the box and going "oh, oh, oh..."
I then glanced back at the price on the scale, and it was $7.77, and I just smiled and nodded in agreement with the guy, even though I was thinking that it was NOT such a big deal. Then as he weighed my 10 soy chicken feet, he wrote down the price and threw in two extra soy chicken feet.. and he kind of winked at me. Then I thought, "oh, there is something to the luck of $7.77 b/c I just scored two extra soy chicken feet out of the deal."
Anyhow, rumor about lucky 7s is true in the Chinese community and confirmed by experience of two extra soy chicken feet.
Edit: BTW... I was thinking that since 6 chicken wings was $7.77, then 5 chicken wings would have been $6.66 and 7 chicken wings would have been $8.88.. just gotta get lucky, or unlucky with the exact weight of each chicken wing.
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Ok, I like the occasional meme gif every once in a while, but now it's starting to get ridiculous.  How old are we again? A picture is worth a thousand words... and seems to be part of this thread's culture... |
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I am feeling a bit of a conspiracy......   |
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I bought some at $587.
I was wondering about that? I was wondering whether I should buy now, or wait until $583 or wait until $593? Are you such a whale that a fraction of a percent makes a difference? At all? Just buy already. If it goes down enough to make a difference, you can always sell a kidney, or a kid or something to buy more. Your seemingly hostile non-answer answer seems to miss the point... but maybe I am getting caught up in style, rather than substance? hm? In the last about 2.5 months, I have been buying quite a few coins at around this price...... so buying a bit cheaper would be better and preferable, if possible, even though in the long run, it may NOT make too much difference whether I bought a few more at $593 or $583 or even $603. I do like to keep down my average buy price though, if there is some way to foresee price movement, then I prefer to buy at the lower end of thee price range rather than the higher end. Strange that I would need to explain some seemingly obvious points, regarding what was meant as a light-hearted inquiry/comment. 583 instead of 587 will get you <0.7% more coins. If you are buying 10 coins, that's about .0686 btc . Will that make a notable bump in your portfolio? If you are buying 1000 coins, that's still less than 7btc. A more notable sum on its own, but still NOT (see what I did there?) worth any sort of sweat when you have thousands of coins. Anyway, back to ignore YES.... if that is the best interaction that you can make is to trivialize and to make fun out of buying contemplations of other posters, then we do NOT have much need to proceed further with this line of NON-communications. You can be OFF to enjoy.... or NOT..... more meaningful interactions... ... Hasta !!!!!!  |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that and 10750$ no 10$75 cents It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking. Now I get your angle. Yes, the average was around 10750. Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth... So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd. Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts. Ok... thanks... I look forward to seeing your work.. if you decide to let us see it.... |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that and 10750$ no 10$75 cents It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking. Now I get your angle. Yes, the average was around 10750. Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth... So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd. |
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Seriously, what is wrong with you guys ? Why do you need such crazy amounts to retire ? I d be totally happy with 10k $ per coin. With that price it would push everyones life(who is involved in bitcoins) in a better direction. I am going all-in with my bitcoin investment strategy, i just hope it is worth it in the long run. My friends and family already tread me like a crazy one and laugh at me because bitcoin is just not moving in neither direction. Anyway, i am hodling strong no matter what comes for the next years. I will only sell if there is absolutely no other way to survive while growing my small stash of bitcoins over time. Back to topic: My dream price would be 40k / coin and ~1 million to retire. But i don't have high life standards, an own apartment with Internet is practically enough to make me happy for the rest of my life. Are you going to be able to accumulate more than 25 BTC before BTC prices become a lot more expensive? I say 25 BTC, b/c that is how many coins you would need to have in order to make $1million out of $40k coins. $10k per coin is only going to get you $250K in principle with those same 25BTC... but surely we shouldn't be complaining about $10k per coin if we are buying now... that is nearly 17x appreciation from today's prices.... Maybe it would be good to invest at or near $15k today for the 25 BTC.. and then just wait it out.... I am really NOT sure, though. My advice, to the extent that I attempt to dish out such would be if a person wanted to get to 25 BTC... but had difficult finances and was NOT sure about being able to invest a whole $15k... would be to invest as much as possible, hopefully, near $7.5k or more and then attempt to keep buying while the money comes in... to attempt to get to 25 BTC within a reasonably accelerated time-frame... then slow down investing in BTC on a dollar cost average basis thereafter. That is a good question Jay. I am really not sure if i can accumulate 25 bitcoins before the value accelerates. But i think that is not the point, as long as you try as hard as possible to get as many as possible. Right now i increase my bitcoin stash at a speed of ~0.4 btc per month. With my optimistic(realistic? ) point of view i will not be able to collect 25 bitcoins, because the process will be so much harder to collect more coins when they are worth over 10k$/each. That means 1 million are out of reach for me and remain as a dream. But if i manage to collect >15 bitcoins till then, i will still be happy. Goddammit, i am such a fucked up superbull. xD I do NOT necessarily disagree with your reasoning, here. That is NOT a bad amount - let's say $250 set aside towards BTC per month. ONLY you are in the position to assess the totality of your financial circumstances. Actually, I remember in the 80s, I used to buy $100 to $200 per month in US Savings bonds, as a potentially secure means to set aside extra money.. however, I was in NO way as bullish as you about my savings/investment b/c I already knew what the rate of my return was going to be and that my money was going to be locked up for at least 5 years (something like that). I did NOT have access to such potential investments like bitcoin... so I am NOT sure what I would have done had I known about such a thing like bitcoin when I had that quantity of money to invest... I may have attempted to figure out a way to set aside more money b/c of the upside potential. We each have to come to our own resolution regarding how to proceed towards our investment(s), and if $250 per month is all that you feel that you can reasonably do, then so be it. |
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I bought some at $587.
I was wondering about that? I was wondering whether I should buy now, or wait until $583 or wait until $593? Are you such a whale that a fraction of a percent makes a difference? At all? Just buy already. If it goes down enough to make a difference, you can always sell a kidney, or a kid or something to buy more. Your seemingly hostile non-answer answer seems to miss the point... but maybe I am getting caught up in style, rather than substance? hm? In the last about 2.5 months, I have been buying quite a few coins at around this price...... so buying a bit cheaper would be better and preferable, if possible, even though in the long run, it may NOT make too much difference whether I bought a few more at $593 or $583 or even $603. I do like to keep down my average buy price though, if there is some way to foresee price movement, then I prefer to buy at the lower end of thee price range rather than the higher end. Strange that I would need to explain some seemingly obvious points, regarding what was meant as a light-hearted inquiry/comment. |
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Seriously, what is wrong with you guys ? Why do you need such crazy amounts to retire ? I d be totally happy with 10k $ per coin. With that price it would push everyones life(who is involved in bitcoins) in a better direction. I am going all-in with my bitcoin investment strategy, i just hope it is worth it in the long run. My friends and family already tread me like a crazy one and laugh at me because bitcoin is just not moving in neither direction. Anyway, i am hodling strong no matter what comes for the next years. I will only sell if there is absolutely no other way to survive while growing my small stash of bitcoins over time. Back to topic: My dream price would be 40k / coin and ~1 million to retire. But i don't have high life standards, an own apartment with Internet is practically enough to make me happy for the rest of my life. Are you going to be able to accumulate more than 25 BTC before BTC prices become a lot more expensive? I say 25 BTC, b/c that is how many coins you would need to have in order to make $1million out of $40k coins. $10k per coin is only going to get you $250K in principle with those same 25BTC... but surely we shouldn't be complaining about $10k per coin if we are buying now... that is nearly 17x appreciation from today's prices.... Maybe it would be good to invest at or near $15k today for the 25 BTC.. and then just wait it out.... I am really NOT sure, though. My advice, to the extent that I attempt to dish out such would be if a person wanted to get to 25 BTC... but had difficult finances and was NOT sure about being able to invest a whole $15k... would be to invest as much as possible, hopefully, near $7.5k or more and then attempt to keep buying while the money comes in... to attempt to get to 25 BTC within a reasonably accelerated time-frame... then slow down investing in BTC on a dollar cost average basis thereafter. |
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I have read every type of predictions here, so here is mine, worthless like most of the others:
we will need 100 bitcoins to retire because the value will be about 200.000$.
Because less than $20,000,000 just isn't enough to get by? 20 BTC ought to be enough for most of us if it ever gets to $200,000 +1 - Exactamente!!! |
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I bought some at $587.
I was wondering about that? I was wondering whether I should buy now, or wait until $583 or wait until $593? |
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bitcoin is not going to anywhere but down
wat a troll pretty sure you created that account and started talking doom and gloom right after bitcoin bottomed. Thank YOU!!!!! Seems that Fallllling has been good for bitcoin prices. Thank you Falllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllling |
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You are correct that it seems that we are going in circles, yet I must clarify my understanding that "living with in your means" and "living large" are NOT mutually exclusive concepts.
In fact, it is my sense that "living within your means" can ensure that you are ABLE TO "live large" for a very long, long time.. b/c you did NOT blow all your wadd in blind exuberance.
Good luck on getting to your 5m target, and good luck to me on my 20m retirement fund. Lets meet in 10 years on an island somewhere  Bitcoin might not make us rich. May be something else, like crypto google or crypto facebook. I appreciate your well-wishing, and thanks even your invitation for a 10 year follow-up; however, I did NOT state anything about any goals that I have regarding quantity of fiat equivalent that I would like to accumulate.. My main point was to raise questions to anybody's bare assertion that the ONLY way that they would retire and feel happy was with a $20million principle package. Additionaly, I concede that I did I talked about various principle sufficiency considerations that would vary from person to person.. and even sufficiency considerations that are within modern day decent standards of living... such as little as $5million in principle and I even implied that amounts lower than that could be sufficient for NOT working while maintaining decent standards of living. |
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In your opinion how many Bitcoins would someone need today in order to retire by August 03 2019 or Aug 03 2020?
Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.
Woah, difficult. I think you'll need about 73 BTC on August 3 2019 and approximately 82.9 BTC a year later. I may be off by a few %, though. This isn't exact science, to be honest. And I'm kinda confused at the moment Wow!!!! You are predicting a 13.5% crash between August 2019 and August 2020. Woah Zaaaah!!! |
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I would like to have 10 btc and bury them for 6 years... I think they should be enough to retire.
That seems to be a completely doable goal, b/c at the moment 10BTC would only cost about $6K. How many BTC do you have right now, and if you do NOT have 10BTC are you able to acquire 10BTC in the near future? but waiting until 100k value is a very long waiting, given the possibility that bitcoin may crash, 10 btc are too little to hope for a retirement, you need an amount between 50-100 to be more safe Actually, I agree with you Ayers. My comment regarding "doable" was directed mostly at Mravagejoe's plan to accumulate 10BTC. I agree that 10 BTC may NOT be enough to retire - depending upon how all these price matters unravel and also depending upon how much dollar equivalent mravagejoe believes he needs in 6 years. Nonetheless, 10 BTC could be a good supplement of income, but safer to attempt to accumulate more... yet if mravagejoe only has the means (or the risk aversion) to acquire 10BTC... , then he will need to have some back up plans in the event that BTC does NOT appreciate sufficiently to meet the particulars of his future goals. |
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