Price tanking hard again, what's up here? Any news triggering that sell-off or is it just another random dump or some miners that can't hold up their selling any longer? Not an especially beautiful sight  I thought we already established that miners do NOT dump on the market.. these miners generally sell off market.. the dumpers on the exchanges are generally the manipulators.. or attempted downward price manipulators... |
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I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!
Hmm, that's a great model, isn't it? One can aford losing all, and can be always in a position buying when price falls. I failed to adapt that model. Pathetically, I bot too heavy during the peak. My remaining capital does not compensate if market falls further. What shall I do? I've got to hodl, and buy regularly to lower my average, with my affordable allowance. Any one give me some suggestions? Another troll like post... but i will entertain it... Yes, a rookie mistake to buy too much when the prices is high and to blow all your wadd in exuberance... yet with bitcoin, you will get your money back, sooner or later, as long as you do NOT attempt to trade... b/c you likely do not know what the fuck you are doing.. like most traders.. and attempt to continue to buy in ... in order to keep bringing down your average buy in price.... in the end (maybe a day or maybe 2 years) the odds are pretty great that BTC prices are going to go to a new ATH.. and then you can either cash out b/c you do NOT know what you are doing.. or just cash out some or just continue to stay in BTC... probably it is good for you to come to your own judgements about this and to continue to monitor the extent to which you want to get out or to redistribute your total investment portfolio |
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I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!
yes... made up and logically inconsistent facts of a troll... |
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Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.
Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.
Close enough, no?
Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere... You should keep two things separate: how well the data is modeled, and how well the model predicts future data. For example, you'll note that the local peaks of the transactions (early 2013, late 2013) come well after the peak in price. And how to extrapolate from the transaction graph into the future is an entirely different question, imo. I picked the "plateau" phases on purpose. In my opinion, the price of around $100 last year was an important milestone. Took the market a while to understand that we won't go below it again for any substantial amount of time, but also that it takes some time to go above it. Feels similar now, with 500s instead of low 100s. (Subjective argumentation above, I know... Dismiss it freely  ) Nah, I think it's a nice assumption! I like to see how people feel about current prices and whether they think that they're sustainable or we're even about to go higher. Then the whole Mt. Gox willy bot thing needs to be addressed. We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet, and some people claim we need that bot. But who knows... I'm not sure what to believe. But remain optimistic! Your rendition of the facts here seem questionable, namely: "We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet." That framing of the facts helps to support the fallacious argument that "we need that bot for a bubble." Seems like a fairly significant distraction in order to attempt to further entice peeps (weak hands) out of their coins. The willy bot may have facilitated that last bubble in terms of timing and magnitude... but even if so that facilitation does NOT mean that willy bot caused the bubble... accordingly, another bubble will be coming, with or without a willy-like bot b/c in the end, various downward price manipulators or only going to be able to keep prices down for so long... maybe they might be able to keep it down for another year.. but i really doubt it and probably they would be lucky to keep prices down more than another 4 months |
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This is where institutional investors come in. Bitcoin is making fiat look so volatile recently. I am glad to have my money in a safe currency  Naaah, those are just some nice words flying around the forums for a week or two recently... Bitcoin is still the most volatile currency we currently have (apart from altcoins, maybe), and it still has a rather shallow market cap or order books. But yeah, we need institutional money or money from big risky investors. I think Bitcoin may not even be big enough for that I agree with the overall sentiment of your post.. but the Bold statement.... seems to be out of place, somewhat? I doubt that you really thought through that bold statement or really made a comparison between ALL currencies in order to suggest that there is some kind of ongoing negativity when it comes to BTC - b/c overall you seem to be suggesting that increasing BTC's market cap could be a partial solution to some of its volatility. I am NO currency expert, but I know that there are a lot of small country currencies that suffer incredible volatility and frequently that volatility of those small country currencies is to the downside.... bitcoin on the other hand has had a volatility record that tends to be to the upside.. at least if we take a longer perspective of BTC. |
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Probably the only thing that will keep bitcoin alive is the illegal side of things  That "illegal side" is kind of what got BTC going, but that"illegal side" does NOT seem to be what is currently sustaining BTC prices in the upper $500s. Do you have statistics to show us? or a link(s)? |
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Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.
A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.
I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense. If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales. But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up. It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped. This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply. But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market. The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks. And these large buyers are not so stupid. So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow. Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability. So... what needs to change? Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change. At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market. So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening. Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan. The longer it lasts the faster it will turn. And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink. And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again. I am all fine and dandy with that analysis... yet it seems that the time-line and stability of this arrangement remains unclear. This arrangement could continue for days or maybe even up to 4-6 months. .. let's say 4-6 months of about $2million per day in BTC being bought off line (3,600 x $600) That is only about $60million per month, and it remains unclear for how many months that will be a sufficient supply for accumulators. |
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I'm of the same opinion as the OP. It's like bitcoin is approaching a new level of growth that has yet to be comprehended IMO. I think people need to be extra careful with their coins because the scammers are on full alert I have no doubt.
yeah... agreed... as BTC increases in value.. which is likely to continue... there will be more and more methods and means to separate peeps from their coins. |
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Wishful thinking, first post or not, great start or not, if you don't like my posts, don't respond to them. I say I said BTC is doomed, a piece of fucking shit. What you dreamed you taught me a lesson, LOL I did not say that I did NOT like your first post, and even if I did NOT like your first post, I can still respond to it. So, WTVER. YOU can come and troll if you like and NOT add value if you like and people may or may NOT respond to your posts; however, those present and/or future posts turn out to be. So far, out of the two posts of yours that I have read, they do NOT seem to add much value to our discussion; however, maybe other people or trolls, may appreciate your apparently NONSUBSTANTIVE and emotionally laden input??? |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD  The known price history of Bitcoin is roughly 4 years. You're attempting to predict 16 years ahead?I still like the prediction though but would expect something halvings to have happened and the price could easily go above 10k.  Wilhelm: It is good that we are NOT relying upon your math....  I calculate 2020 to be 6 years from NOW, not 16 years from now. By the way, the $10,750 estimate seems a little bearish to me, too... given BTC's history and totality of circumstances, including slipperyslope's theory of exponential growth during the adoption phase.. and NO reason to believe that we are NOT currently in the midst of adoption.... even in early adoption regarding BTC. |
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Maybe the November 2013 bubble was the last one. That would be a bummer, huh? Or maybe masterluc was right, and we're in for a multi-year bear market. Fun stuff!
LINK?  or it didn't happen. |
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Chicken feet  YEP, Soy Chicken feet. I bought 10 of them, and got two bonus ones... They are yummy, and better cold, IMHBO. I thought that you were ignoring me, Shroomie? |
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Today, I was able to confirm both the good luck and the superstition with 777
I was in my local Chinese town to-go restaurant, and I told the gentleman behind the counter that i wanted 6 barbecued chicken wings and 10 soy chicken feet. He was NOT sure about what I said and he asked the lady next to him to translate into chinese.
When he weighed up the chicken wings, I saw the price came to $7.xx, and I had not really noticed the details of the price, I was just thinking, "shit more than $7.xx for 6 chicken wings." Don't get me wrong, they were big-ass chicken wings, but still I was thinking about the price, and as the guy was acknowledging the price, he was getting really excited about how lucky I was and kept pointing at the wings and the box and going "oh, oh, oh..."
I then glanced back at the price on the scale, and it was $7.77, and I just smiled and nodded in agreement with the guy, even though I was thinking that it was NOT such a big deal. Then as he weighed my 10 soy chicken feet, he wrote down the price and threw in two extra soy chicken feet.. and he kind of winked at me. Then I thought, "oh, there is something to the luck of $7.77 b/c I just scored two extra soy chicken feet out of the deal."
Anyhow, rumor about lucky 7s is true in the Chinese community and confirmed by experience of two extra soy chicken feet.
Edit: BTW... I was thinking that since 6 chicken wings was $7.77, then 5 chicken wings would have been $6.66 and 7 chicken wings would have been $8.88.. just gotta get lucky, or unlucky with the exact weight of each chicken wing.
4 and 7, particularly 4, is more considered as bad rather than good in Chinese culture. "4" sounds like "die", and "7" is also related to death. Commemorative banknote with 4 or 7 in the serial number will carry a lesser premium. Just search "無47" (No 4 and 7) ( https://www.google.com.hk/search?q=%E7%84%A147 ) and you will find lots of ads of commemorative banknote trading In other words, the guy in the restaurant did NOT know his proper training in superstitions... He probably had gone to Vegas too frequently... and figured 7s were lucky... NOT realizing that he is chinese. |
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Today, I was able to confirm both the good luck and the superstition with 777
I was in my local Chinese town to-go restaurant, and I told the gentleman behind the counter that i wanted 6 barbecued chicken wings and 10 soy chicken feet. He was NOT sure about what I said and he asked the lady next to him to translate into chinese.
When he weighed up the chicken wings, I saw the price came to $7.xx, and I had not really noticed the details of the price, I was just thinking, "shit more than $7.xx for 6 chicken wings." Don't get me wrong, they were big-ass chicken wings, but still I was thinking about the price, and as the guy was acknowledging the price, he was getting really excited about how lucky I was and kept pointing at the wings and the box and going "oh, oh, oh..."
I then glanced back at the price on the scale, and it was $7.77, and I just smiled and nodded in agreement with the guy, even though I was thinking that it was NOT such a big deal. Then as he weighed my 10 soy chicken feet, he wrote down the price and threw in two extra soy chicken feet.. and he kind of winked at me. Then I thought, "oh, there is something to the luck of $7.77 b/c I just scored two extra soy chicken feet out of the deal."
Anyhow, rumor about lucky 7s is true in the Chinese community and confirmed by experience of two extra soy chicken feet.
Edit: BTW... I was thinking that since 6 chicken wings was $7.77, then 5 chicken wings would have been $6.66 and 7 chicken wings would have been $8.88.. just gotta get lucky, or unlucky with the exact weight of each chicken wing.
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Ok, I like the occasional meme gif every once in a while, but now it's starting to get ridiculous. How old are we again? A picture is worth a thousand words... and seems to be part of this thread's culture... |
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I am feeling a bit of a conspiracy......  |
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I bought some at $587.
I was wondering about that? I was wondering whether I should buy now, or wait until $583 or wait until $593? Are you such a whale that a fraction of a percent makes a difference? At all? Just buy already. If it goes down enough to make a difference, you can always sell a kidney, or a kid or something to buy more. Your seemingly hostile non-answer answer seems to miss the point... but maybe I am getting caught up in style, rather than substance? hm? In the last about 2.5 months, I have been buying quite a few coins at around this price...... so buying a bit cheaper would be better and preferable, if possible, even though in the long run, it may NOT make too much difference whether I bought a few more at $593 or $583 or even $603. I do like to keep down my average buy price though, if there is some way to foresee price movement, then I prefer to buy at the lower end of thee price range rather than the higher end. Strange that I would need to explain some seemingly obvious points, regarding what was meant as a light-hearted inquiry/comment. 583 instead of 587 will get you <0.7% more coins. If you are buying 10 coins, that's about .0686 btc . Will that make a notable bump in your portfolio? If you are buying 1000 coins, that's still less than 7btc. A more notable sum on its own, but still NOT (see what I did there?) worth any sort of sweat when you have thousands of coins. Anyway, back to ignore YES.... if that is the best interaction that you can make is to trivialize and to make fun out of buying contemplations of other posters, then we do NOT have much need to proceed further with this line of NON-communications. You can be OFF to enjoy.... or NOT..... more meaningful interactions... ... Hasta !!!!!!  |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that and 10750$ no 10$75 cents It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking. Now I get your angle. Yes, the average was around 10750. Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth... So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd. Those were the averages of different best/worst case approaches. Not the range of the absolute amounts. Ok... thanks... I look forward to seeing your work.. if you decide to let us see it.... |
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I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios. Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD It's a really good economist if s/he can predict price in 6 years time up to 5th decimal sign. As I said, we made some assumptions for worst /best turnouts and averaged those. This practise is called educated guessing and the finance world doesn't do much more than that and 10750$ no 10$75 cents It's just a common practice to give as much digits as you sure of. That is 10,750 would mean something between 10,740 and 10,760. While you probably meant to say something like "in range of 10K". Sorry for nitpicking. Now I get your angle. Yes, the average was around 10750. Best cases ranged from 15000-25000 USD Worst cases from 225 USD - 900 USD Your best case scenarios seem fairly bearish (b/c BTC has possibilities to go into the $100K range in the next 6 years), and your worst case scenarios do NOT seem to take into account the possibility of BTC going to zero, which is a real possibility, sorry to speak the truth... So ultimately, if you are NOT accounting for all of the scenarios, then your prediction is likely off, even if you are receiving the assistance and input of an economist phd. |
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