Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Sandia]

If it wasn't so boring, the last 9 days on the daily chart would be hilarious: 9 doji (or near doji)  in a row.

That should be a signal of market indecision.  If we are being held at this range so someone big can stock up on coins, why is it taking so long?

[kurious]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.

If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.

But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up.  It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.

This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.

But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.

The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.

And these large buyers are not so stupid.   So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.

Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.

So...  what needs to change?  Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.

At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.

So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening. 

Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.   

The longer it lasts the faster it will turn.  And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.

And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.

[JayJuanGee]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.

If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.

But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up.  It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.

This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.

But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.

The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.

And these large buyers are not so stupid.   So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.

Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.

So...  what needs to change?  Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.

At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.

So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening. 

Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.   

The longer it lasts the faster it will turn.  And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.

And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.

I am all fine and dandy with that analysis... yet it seems that the time-line and stability of this arrangement remains unclear.   This arrangement could continue for days or maybe even up to 4-6 months.  .. let's say 4-6 months of about $2million per day in BTC being bought off line  (3,600 x $600) That is only about $60million per month, and it remains unclear for how many months that will be a sufficient supply for accumulators.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HarmonLi]

I think we survived the weekend pretty well. The run-up on sunday was great, but didn't last long and we're back at square 1. But there's been no monday dump and we didn't break down. Gotta see the positive things here, I'm an optimist! Your predictions???

[HarmonLi]

If it wasn't so boring, the last 9 days on the daily chart would be hilarious: 9 doji (or near doji)  in a row.

That should be a signal of market indecision.  If we are being held at this range so someone big can stock up on coins, why is it taking so long?

What does that mean, 9 doji? Could you explain that in laymans words? I'm really no expert in TA or chart theory, but am interested to learn. And what does that mean for the price or the market sentiment in the future???

[Krabby]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

[HarmonLi]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

[N12]

If it wasn't so boring, the last 9 days on the daily chart would be hilarious: 9 doji (or near doji)  in a row.

That should be a signal of market indecision.  If we are being held at this range so someone big can stock up on coins, why is it taking so long?

What does that mean, 9 doji? Could you explain that in laymans words? I'm really no expert in TA or chart theory, but am interested to learn. And what does that mean for the price or the market sentiment in the future???

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doji.asp

[hdbuck]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

need real despair. i mean REAL. almost to the point where you will think the game is over and that bitcoin failed.

[HarmonLi]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

need real despair. i mean REAL. almost to the point where you will think the game is over and that bitcoin failed.

Wow, yeah.. That would surely spark a decision I guess.. But I don't know if I could handle that, I'd be freaking out completely. But I want to stay in Bitcoin, I don't want to play it safe or try to daytrade the market (because I'd fail ) What can I do to ease my mind a bit?

[Sandia]

What can I do to ease my mind a bit?

Remember that btc prices rise an average of 0.59% per day.  This ranging is abnormal, and will eventually end.

[hmmkay]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

need real despair. i mean REAL. almost to the point where you will think the game is over and that bitcoin failed.

Wow, yeah.. That would surely spark a decision I guess.. But I don't know if I could handle that, I'd be freaking out completely. But I want to stay in Bitcoin, I don't want to play it safe or try to daytrade the market (because I'd fail ) What can I do to ease my mind a bit?

Despair only helps existing bears, useless.
We need new people to get in, that's all.

[ShroomsKit]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

This is a weird logic that people start saying everytime the price is stuck for a while.
It's based on nothing really.

[kurious]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.

If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.

But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up.  It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.

This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.

But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.

The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.

And these large buyers are not so stupid.   So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.

Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.

So...  what needs to change?  Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.

At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.

So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening. 

Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.   

The longer it lasts the faster it will turn.  And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.

And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.

I am all fine and dandy with that analysis... yet it seems that the time-line and stability of this arrangement remains unclear.   This arrangement could continue for days or maybe even up to 4-6 months.  .. let's say 4-6 months of about $2million per day in BTC being bought off line  (3,600 x $600) That is only about $60million per month, and it remains unclear for how many months that will be a sufficient supply for accumulators.

I don't know, of course - but I 'feel' less than two months... But we don't know what the real market (the off-market) is doing, other than it is right now in some sort of equilibrium.   As mining difficulty changes things must change in the end - but when?  Hmm...

[hdbuck]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.

If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.

But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up.  It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.

This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.

But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.

The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.

And these large buyers are not so stupid.   So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.

Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.

So...  what needs to change?  Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.

At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.

So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening.  

Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.  

The longer it lasts the faster it will turn.  And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.

And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.

I am all fine and dandy with that analysis... yet it seems that the time-line and stability of this arrangement remains unclear.   This arrangement could continue for days or maybe even up to 4-6 months.  .. let's say 4-6 months of about $2million per day in BTC being bought off line  (3,600 x $600) That is only about $60million per month, and it remains unclear for how many months that will be a sufficient supply for accumulators.

I don't know, of course - but I 'feel' less than two months... But we don't know what the real market (the off-market) is doing, other than it is right now in some sort of equilibrium.   As mining difficulty changes things must change in the end - but when?  Hmm...

I am more and more akin to the idea that next bubble will coincide with some economical breakdown. But i cant tell which one will provoque the other one to happen..

[justusranvier]

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.

If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.

But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers both off-market, then volume dries up.  It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.

This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.

But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.

The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.

And these large buyers are not so stupid.   So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.

Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.

So...  what needs to change?  Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.

At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.

So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening. 

Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.   

The longer it lasts the faster it will turn.  And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.

And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.

Speaking of pool operators selling coins off-market, I wonder how many of them are robbing their members?

I believe Eligius is the only pool that gives participants their payouts via the generation transaction, and all the rest of the pool holds the earnings of individual miners in off-chain accounts.

Surely with miners, just like with speculators, there are probably a lot of them content to let the pool hold on to their coins for them. They don't understand that the number they see listed as their balance isn't the same as actually having bitcoins.

Surely there must be pool operators who look at accumulating idle balances and are tempted to sell those coins off to the hedge funds who want them so badly.

What's the real downside to going fractional on their deposits? When they get caught they can just claim to have been hacked.

[johnwest]

Explanation

We are on weekdays now but market behaving like weekends.
No movement at all, just boring begining of the week.

[HarmonLi]

Everyone needs to get bearish so we can liftoff again.

So you think we need to shake out some longs first, or do you think we simply need to get the movement going again? I try to understand why people feel the need for another crash before a new rallye can emerge!

need real despair. i mean REAL. almost to the point where you will think the game is over and that bitcoin failed.

Wow, yeah.. That would surely spark a decision I guess.. But I don't know if I could handle that, I'd be freaking out completely. But I want to stay in Bitcoin, I don't want to play it safe or try to daytrade the market (because I'd fail ) What can I do to ease my mind a bit?

Despair only helps existing bears, useless.
We need new people to get in, that's all.

But that sounds like the logic on which a pyramid scheme is based on! Aren't we trying to shed that clichee off of Bitcoin? Although I guess it is kind of true, because more people have to come in (or funds, to be precise) than there are new BTC mined every day!