Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HarmonLi]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

You should keep two things separate: how well the data is modeled, and how well the model predicts future data.

For example, you'll note that the local peaks of the transactions (early 2013, late 2013) come well after the peak in price. And how to extrapolate from the transaction graph into the future is an entirely different question, imo.

I picked the "plateau" phases on purpose. In my opinion, the price of around $100 last year was an important milestone. Took the market a while to understand that we won't go below it again for any substantial amount of time, but also that it takes some time to go above it.

Feels similar now, with 500s instead of low 100s.

(Subjective argumentation above, I know... Dismiss it freely )

Nah, I think it's a nice assumption! I like to see how people feel about current prices and whether they think that they're sustainable or we're even about to go higher. Then the whole Mt. Gox willy bot thing needs to be addressed. We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet, and some people claim we need that bot. But who knows... I'm not sure what to believe. But remain optimistic!

[kireinaha]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

[HarmonLi]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

If the price manages to go up and maybe even another bubbles comes around, your $10 May quickly be worth $10k, haha! But your plan seems like a reasonable and prudent plan. But remember that Bitcoin may still go to $0!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Threebits]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

Hmm, that's a great model, isn't it? One can aford losing all, and can be always in a position buying when price falls.

I failed to adapt that model. Pathetically, I bot too heavy  during the peak. My remaining capital does not compensate if market falls further.

What shall I do? I've got to hodl, and buy regularly to lower my average, with my affordable allowance. Any one give me some suggestions?

[empowering]

Less than a month after it first began accepting bitcoin, Dell has received a 85 BTC (over $50,000) order for a PowerEdge server order.

http://www.coindesk.com/dell-receives-50k-server-order-bitcoin/

That doesn't sound like it's a lot of money for Dell. I think it's a great thing that order has been made using Bitcoin, but it isn't an order out of the ordinary for Dell, I guess, right?

No of course not... but I read somewhere the other day that they got a good response from BTC purchases, and now someone has ordered a $50k server from them (a business?)  not just a itty bitty laptop.. it does not mean much in isolation at all... but still ... interesting...  in that it is a large BTC purchase... not for Dell, but not bad for BTC... just need more and more and more now...

[empowering]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

Here's the latest chart (updated just now):

Lovely

[minerpumpkin]

Price tanking hard again, what's up here? Any news triggering that sell-off or is it just another random dump or some miners that can't hold up their selling any longer? Not an especially beautiful sight

[edwardspitz]

300 BTC ask wall was just bought @ Bitfinex 

[Walsoraj]

AUG 11 2014
Consumer advisory: Virtual currencies and what you should know about them
BY WILL WADE-GERY
You may have heard about virtual currencies like Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin. But what are virtual currencies? What’s this “to the moon!” business on the internet about? And, as a consumer, what risks should you be aware of?

While virtual currencies offer the potential for innovation, a lot of big issues have yet to be resolved – some of which are critical, including:

Virtual currencies are targets for hackers who have been able to breach sophisticated security systems in order to steal funds
Virtual currencies can cost consumers more to use than credit cards or even regular cash once you take exchange rate issues into consideration
Fraudsters are taking advantage of the hype surrounding virtual currencies to cheat people with fake opportunities
If you trust a company to hold your virtual currencies and something goes wrong, that company may not offer you the kind of help you expect from your bank or debit or credit card provider
Check out our consumer advisory for more things that you should think about if you’re considering using virtual currencies and links to other useful resources.

Submit a complaint
You can also submit a complaint if you have a problem with a virtual currency product or service. We’ll forward the complaint, along with any documents you provide, to the relevant company and work to get a response from them.

Complaint data helps us understand what business practices may pose risks to consumers. We’ll use the information to enforce federal consumer financial laws and, if appropriate, take policy steps.

http://www.consumerfinance.gov/blog/consumer-advisory-virtual-currencies-and-what-you-should-know-about-them/

[hd060053]

we will enter panic mode when the great wall of huobi gets broken. could happen in the next 1-2 hours. perma selling on all exchanges going on. nice manipulation.

[mmitech]

to be honest , I am not sure what to think, the price still doesn't seem right to me and the trend is just broken, I haven't been confused like this in a long time, I remember about this time a year ago I went all in and I can still remember the confidence I had about my decision... I just don't know why I don't have that anymore !!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[derpinheimer]

Oh man 3600 is so close to falling :O

[hd060053]

the orderbook on bitstamp looks so scary. never saw such a weak orderbook. 12k to 400 and no walls at all...

[kireinaha]

Bring on the multi-year bear market. Let the true bit-leavers accumulate all the coins from the weak hands!

[hd060053]

huobi is really strong and 20 CNY over okcoin already. but it will fall now.

[fonzie]

I´m buyin!  

[ShroomsKit]

Bring on the multi-year bear market. Let the true bit-leavers accumulate all the coins from the weak hands!

No thanks.

And please quit with the weak hands myth.

[lemonte]

the orderbook on bitstamp looks so scary. never saw such a weak orderbook. 12k to 400 and no walls at all...

$140,529.90 bid at $550