Which brings us to the obvious question, since we're talking about the final meltdown.
So if the drop from 90 to 64, 64 to 69, 69 to 64, 64 to 20 and 20 to 4 haven't triggered the apocalypse why do you assume that the 10% they lost on Monday and recovered on Tuesday will be the final nail in the coffin? 


There won't be any nuclear war, Putin is obsessed with winning, he is going to go for any straw he can grasp to proclaim a victory even in total defeat so for sure he will not go for an act after which there is nobody left to clap his hands when he does a PowerPoint slideshow of his achievements. Plus it's not like he has a real button and once pressed nukes fly, I'm pretty sure in this scenario if he does order this he will just get shot in the back the same moments, it's one thing for the elite and his generals to stay in Moscow, lose some yachts and a few millions out of their billion it's a different thing when they are confronted with losing their own lives.

Mining doesn't work like that!
If the price doesn't go up then miners who can't make a profit shut down their gears, the hashrate goes down the income for each miner left goes up proportionally to the mount quitting, even with the price not going up. Miners have no way to make the price go up by just mining, if that would have been the case we would simply buy three times the gear that is mining now, and look, the price would have to go up 3x times cause mining is not profitable!


It's not an exaggeration, I'm looking at a machine earning 7$ a day (soon $6 the way the hashrate is going)  with free electricity and the same machine going for around $2k on the market, 3 years of ROI with free electricity. Yeah there have been good times in mining, one year ago we were talking about $40 a day for the same machine but think of the future, with this kind of revenue once you have a miner breaking down, do you think of replacing it or you would simply keep with just what you have?

Now, my question to you is, why would you even think that this purchase could or would affect the Bitcoin price in the first place? One, just one tiny fraction of a scenario or a thought in which it would do so cause right now I'm incapable of thinking of one!
The only thing I can think of this actually influencing crypto (but NOT! Bitcoin)as in the altcoin scene is his statement on cutting down fake accounts, so this would be indeed a disastrous blow to the shitcoins spammers that are turning any semi-important crypto-related twitter into a spam fest.

Because at that time they were asking for those just to cover their asses on some laws nobody bothered about when it came to crypto casinos, not that they actually cared if those IDs are fake or real, they were happy with having the minimum AML requirement checked and that's that, now that things have changed and everyone is aware you can get those for 10-20$ they've ramped up a bit the requirements and although even those can still be passed the main reason behind it is to make it costly and far riskier for both the one selling your services to pass KYC and the customer.

I'm just thinking of this scenario, you have paid a guy on Fiverr to verify your account, and they suddenly ask you for one more picture 3 months later, and you call the guy again since obviously it's his face there, he sees you have 20k locked there,  and suddenly he asks you for 10k instead of 100 and it's your choice lose 50% or 100% of the money. Would you still risk it?

Kind of ironic that even opening an account on gambling websites has become a gamble on its own.

A lot of the adults are broke for a completely different reason, while they keep giving advice and having also a plan on their own, when it comes to reality and not theory there is a sudden wake-up call, all those encouragement speeches, all that motivation fails when you realize that when it actually comes to do it stuff for real, not to just think on how you will do it there is a huge difference.

As I just stumbled on his name on a different topic, Kiyosaki is a great example, he made millions "teaching" them about economics and business and how to make money, but when it came to applying his own teachings in the real world, well, this happens:
'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' Author Files for Bankruptcy for His Company


So less lonely bored housewife-level motivational speeches and documentaries, more real-life experience. Behind the keyboard or the video camera, everyone is an expert on giving advice, when it comes to actually do it, you can see the outcome everywhere around you.

Well, it's not that I was having a solid clue the times before, I was still just making predictions because I felt like this thing or that thing should happen, but right now it's zero, I can't even picture a scenario of my own, I feel there is a huge mess right now that will only go bigger till finally in some way things will start being even remotely predictable again.
This 10% is one of them, I know we could blame it on people restarting gear (it's the beginning of October so a highly convenient date), Bitmain&co delivering, but still that much power back online just like that in a matter of days? A huge on/off switch?  And the price, damn this price, all over the place just because it can. No, at this point I can't even think of a scenario before I find 10 things to dispose of it myself.

As for hopium, I have some of my own right now, rain is coming back to Europe, so is wind, the Rhine is fully navigable so coal is being shipped, France is restarting nuclear powerplants, the gas deposits are nearly full, so:

These are the prices for €/MWh, on Monday, 1st of August, just quoting a few on top of the list:
🇦🇹 Austria      431.65
🇧🇪 Belgium        399.86
🇧🇬 Bulgaria   417.52
🇨🇿 Czechia      427.33
🇩🇪 Germany   424.62
🇪🇪 Estonia      394.11

Here is October 3rd (Also Monday):

 🇦🇹 Austria      222.01
🇧🇪 Belgium      276.44
🇧🇬 Bulgaria   246.97
🇨🇿 Czechia      227.59
🇩🇪 Germany   213.21
🇪🇪 Estonia      270.03

I know for 101% of the miners that would look insane but the way prices have dropped, reaching for example just a little above 100E in Poland,  there is hope for under 100E/MWh continuously, so with a bit of luck, the chances of mining next year of 0.01% might become 0.03%   

Oh, nearly forgot, diff update:


F&^&%!!!! 

I think she agreed with the fine because most likely she has now clue what's behind that and for a few hundred thousand dollars it's better to just let it slide, do a swimsuit promo and she'll get 10 times the fine back. The guy who regrets it is probably the one in charge of his social media accounts and maybe his manager as I doubt she knows what she's promoting there in 99% of the cases.

And that coin,  ETH max, for god's sake, who would agree to promote it if they would spend a second checking it ?


It's about this thing:

https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/ftcs-endorsement-guides-what-people-are-asking#about

Daily values are misleading, it all depends on when those making them decide the day stats (GMT, GMT-8, whatever their server hour is) and the luck in finding blocks in that time.
For example ycharts show on the 1st and 2nd 282 and then 244
Bitinfohcrats shows 1st with 268 and 2nd with 261.

Most likely the real value will be at something over 240Exa for this period, a new ATH but not that spectacular, for example, we had on average 223 back in May, still a 10% up but not 30%.


Maybe a few, but those must have been placing their order in advance by a few months, not to mention that feeding 2-3 Asics is different than a standard 8 GPU rig, not to mention the noise. The culprit behind the spike is probably another batch being delivered, October was a schedule for the first batch of S19 hydros, and usually, the buyers for those are doing it at the 190 MQO batches.
Also what DaveF said, prices and electricity availability are slowly going down in a few states and suspended operations are plugging again.

They are not dumping it to crash the USD, as obviously they can't do that, they are desperately selling $ for yuan to stop the yuan from crashing, a completely different story in reality! It's literally in the first line:

and a little more down the article:

They are dumping reserves and that's what every country would do in such situations and that's the main reason foreign currency reserves are held in the first place, when you're own currency is in trouble you increase demand by buying it with reserves when you want to devalue it you buy $ or Euros and weaken it. It's all a matter of how big those are and if it's worth long term to do it, as numerous countries have failed, and some have decided it's not worth it and they can't stop it anyhow so they nearly gave up on this method, like Turkey for example.

If you're looking at that S19 at $3200, don't do it!
If you have 5c/kwh you're going to ROI in about 3 years while the S19 H next to it has 600days at the same electricity rates and even that it's not the best deal on the market.


The price goes up when the revenue per THs goes up and they come crashing down to somewhat real manufacturing costs when the gold rush is over and ROI numbers are counted as above in years. For example from July to December last year the revenue per TH/s stayed mostly above 30 cents, peaking at 40, that's 40$ a day for an S19, now its 7cents per TH/s, 7$ a day, a difference of 30$ a day or 10k a year, so the price of the gear was matching the demand of people rushing in dreaming of those profits lasting forever.


Then $500, then $200 or $100, because...reasons! 

Because it's one thing to devalue your currency by a few points to keep the balance between imports and exports, and it's a different thing when it dumps to the lowest value in 10 years and for a decade you've become a net food importer, importing 100 billion of food mainly from, guess who, the US. Chian is heavenly dependent on soybeans, corn, and pork, not even counting oil and other raw materials from Australia for example, but food security is the top priority for the CCP, the ghost of the 59-61 famine won't let them sleep at night if even a slight danger is threatening this.

That's why they are auctioning stockpiles after a stockpile of soybeans and corn and pork to keep prices stable,

Each country has its own priorities and each government sees different dangers and different things that might trigger the population to revolt, for some its a guy getting shot in the street because of his color, for others is the price of pork for others is a piece of cloth on women's head.
Cina will sacrifice half or all of its growth to keep food prices at bay, that's a line nobody will dare cross.

Well, it could have worked that way if the said senator was the head of its party and that party would be the leading one, but in this case, it's just one senator from a party that has 7% of the seats, that has lost votes compared to the previous election and they are actually in some sort of opposition to the current government, so her opinion is like nothing, unfortunately.

What matters is what the ruling party is thinking, the former finance minister was definitely anti-bitcoin, he was actually the one thinking of a complete ban not just for financial institutions, but the new guy seems more understandable, maybe just maybe we will see some softening in the current anti-bitcoin stance.

I was again like 99% sure it's not going to keep at 10% increase and damn, it's almost a week, and this keeps going.
About the US guys, I was again thinking it will show in the pool stats but somehow the move is not reflected there like totally clear, look who's getting more hashes,nothing, 1 month blocks vs 3 days:



If that 10% would be coming from the guys having 24 last period they would have right now about 30%, but it's nowhere here, and look like a  pretty fair distribution across pools, which makes me think some of them are actually directing a bit of their hashrate to other pools to keep down the fear of a monopoly or a possible 51%.
As for them coming to a decision on doing reasonable things, yeah that will work as much as OPEC is working right now.

But, at least we have a........happy mikeywith cause I will keep price and hash and other predictions to myself for a while  Oh, and it's fo real, not a joke, mainly because I have like zero ideas where things might go, zero!

Because at some point a word gets a new meaning, even if it's not quoting ZH it's still ZH material, much like... a homer for example


And what about those investors, cause after the panic sell there was a panic buy since well, shares were trading above starting price at the end and I'm pretty sure all the doomsdayers and shorters are really not having a nice morning today:

https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/cs

What was the nickname of those guys, ...weak hands? Lol!


And I told you it's not a counterattack it's emptying the pockets yelling take all my money and stop hitting me 

Oh, Robert Kiyosaki, the famous author who when faced with the real world not writing managed to bankrupt every single business he started.
Just a quick reminded what he was saying a few months ago:


One month later:


And if you want to see something really funny:
https://twitter.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/1541593385974128642


Everyone that is taking this guy seriously really needs to adjust his social media following list.
As for the other guy with his 30 declines, yeah right, exactly 30%, not 25% not 50% because, again, reasons!

Even a broken clock is right, or how one of the users here said:


If you keep chanting every month that a crisis will come and you live enough you might see one, if you're unlucky like my grandparents who learned every day the US evil empire will fall, you might, well, not see it in your lifetime. Do you know what amuses me the most? The thing that people here who all the time are laughing about Bitcoin obituaries make the same mistake again when looking at the other markets, I said it, the only thing that died more times than BTC in the last 10 years is the $, and as you can see..


Exactly, just to line this with the above-mentioned crisis, the real one is catching everyone but a few by surprise, those that make it over twitter one year before it happens are as accurate as shit! DB has collapsed a hundred times, CS the same, let's not even mention JPM, how many have been burned by shorting Tesla (mentioning this because I know how much you like the guy  ), and many many others.
Of course, at one point it will happen, but this monthly doom is really getting boring so, bring it already!

If you want to shitpost and your manager allows low-quality replies, then you can shitpost all over this forum as there are hundreds of topics, you don't have to waste one post in order to create a topic that is on the same level as a hundred others.
Besides, as I pointed in my previous message with the screenshot of my conversations with him, he wasted days in which he could make the full quota for three accounts just asking me over PM on everything from the first buy of a used laptop to what problems might be with malware in a power bank, then if a jack can be tempered because he read this and that and, whatever!!!!

I don't doubt that there are some who are doing this, especially when some campaign requires posts in a certain section and they need their non-moderated topics there but the technical discussion section is just not suited for that, plus it's one of the sections where useless post do get deleted a lot of times.


Yup, that tactic has been used but it wasn't about just post count but merit harvesting an this can be easily traced.

Yeah, suddenly we have found the new species of human that isn't tempted and tainted by any of the 7 sins, yeah right, bs.
If Afrincas wouldn't be greedy you won't happen to stumble upon a Ponzi scheme every week, but even leaving that obvious thing aside, what do you mean, politicians in Africa aren't greedy? Aren't they corrupt? Who votes for greedy and corrupt politicians more than others who just want to fill their pockets?

I just hate this rhetoric, Africans are not the ones guilty for their leaders, not all Russians are corrupt, it's not their fault, it's not the fault of the ordinary citizen for its government abuse, but who the hell puts those people in power? To do nothing about makes you just as guilty as the culprit!


Wow, so they are not greedy like the rest of the decadent west but, they are stealing from their own citizen. Yeah, love the logic!


Unify? No!
The borders of nearly all of those countries are barely holding, the only thing keeping them together is that they are afraid of what might happen if a dispute happens between the two territories, but in reality, if you would let them choose on their own based on their ethnicity every country would look worse then the Papal states, I bet there is not a country with more than 10 provinces that doesn't have at least 2-3 of them constantly rebelling and seeking independence.

Yeah, I am too, especially about the whole ATM card thing, but I'm getting tired of calling them out on these stories, there are just so many things that don't make sense and they spin it with every explanation I'm starting to feel sorry for them. We recently had a few of those stories coming up, this kidnapping, the hidden camera in the honeymoon room, and many others, I just know some of them are things that didn't really happen to them and they are just milking the subject, but at the same time, from a reader points of view as long as the story is still true despite happening elsewhere the moral of the story is still the same.


As I was saying, it makes no sense with that ATM card, they got the BTC and they made a run for it, these guys got 8 BTC worth 160k, even here in Europe I have a 3k limit on ATM withdraws, it will take me two months trying to get that in cash, and let's not talk about that 300$ limit in Nigeria, it would take you 2 years!!!!!! 
But browsing around, even the "original" didn't include the social media exposure thing, but this case does:

Teenager seized and hauled into car after posting on social media about earning ‘reasonable amount of money’ trading cryptocurrency
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/bradford-schoolboy-bitcoin-kidnapped-gang-b1940896.html

So yeah, the threat and dangers are real!

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:


Ten years later, DB is still there but it's going to die again, cause..    things


That's not a strike, it's calling mommy for help, the Yuan has fallen to the levels of 2008 against the dollar and they can't stop it from going even down despite telling everyone not to panic, don't buy $, don't try to get your wealth out the country!
So they are going to dump their reserve $ in order to keep the yuan afloat, because, yeah, it has worked wonders in the past, from the Bank of England to Venezuela to Zimbabwe!