Well, my first prediction was bearish for the drop or bullish for the total hash rate, or whatever this is perceived so, me being completely wrong on this one would be good for miners.
And as it turns out, from the 7.5% pace is   89.3824% so it just needs another 4% push to enter my usual 200% prediction territory.


I wouldn't bet that much on the electricity increase, Europe and North East Asia which is the most affected had basically zero mining, Russia now has a ton of extra, and the US and Canada are not really that affected after a spike caused by panic and high demand during summer things are looking at around 1 cent per kWh increase in most areas where heavy mining is happening compared to 2021.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
In my opinion, their main problem would be paying for anything as most of them were running on credit, not income, 1 cent will be irrelevant when you don't have the other 4 in the first place, so we might see more bankruptcies because of the credit line rather than the small increase in costs. If they ae pushed out of the game by this a quick jump to 20k would solve their problems.


Hmm, nothing spectacular apart from unknown gaining 3%, nothing threatening Foundry yet.

The website has been transferred to their appointed claim agent,  it's old news and standard procedure as they have filled already for this in court long ago
https://twitter.com/FTX_Official/status/1593317347703590915
The same thing happened to MtGox but in that case, they kept the domain alive and put all the notices on the main page.

But I won't share the pessimism of everyone here, it's not really sure that everything is gone, people said that for MtGox also, and look how it turned out, there might be enough funds left to at least cover a few of the losses, probably nothing close to half of it but at least one quarter, maybe!

$740 million have been recovered, who knows how much there is still hidden in some wallets
https://fortune.com/2022/11/23/ftx-collapse-assets-customers-crypto-bitcoin-ethereum-solana-bitgo/

For Compute North their main problem was (from what I read) that the whole company was running on credit, they basically had nothing, $500m in debt and even selling all the facilities they're expected to raise less than 10% down from their previous claim of 100 million. Also, the whole thing is really messy, a lot of their business was actually hosting for others, like MARA, so if that miner goes into trouble because it was running on credit from Celsius for example, so do they. Half a billion company run with 100k in cash, nice chain of fails, right?

As far as I understand Foundry has bought just the location where they were already mining in partnership with Compute North:


Yeah, 25% in income per block and Bitcoin down to 10k because of the panic over fees and exchange run, a recap of the fork wars when the chain was last attacked, no thanks.
Speaking of panic, I feel tempted to short BTC at the moment of the diff adjustment, I can already see the panic titles, bitcoin hash rate drops by 10%, miners go bankrupt, POW is doomed, etc etc.
60 blocks behind, I'll bet on a 7.5% drop, let's see if I lost my skills or my quartz ball will still miss this by more than 7.5% altogether.

Yeah, in your world maybe, in reality, WTI is at $78 and Brent at $85, as usual!


It's 1.5% in the EU, but don't let details like numbers stand in your way.


"Biggest economist" ?



Don't you dare be optimistic about something, read the mood of the room, we're all doomed!
Actually, that rhymes!  

But it's indeed funny.
In the previous topic, I read everyone was looking at the new generation as people who can't overcome a challenge, who are dependent on their smartphones, the generation that will crumble under an ounce of stress, and look what we have here, almost everyone saying the world is done for, that nothing better will come, that we live in a matrix where we're just at the mercy of the ones controlling it and so on, I can't make head and tails of what's happening here.
On one side we promote independence how the new system will change things, and how problems will be fixed, on the other side, nothing you can do, just crawl under your bed and swipe for the bad news. If the economy recovers and we see inflation back to 1-2%, lower unemployment, and the war will be over I think we need to start having some counseling topics to prevent a few users to commit suicide as they will have a total breakdown seeing another apocalypse failing.

This protocol lacks a lot of details
- cooking time per block
- the size of the steak
- what kind of chain flavors or sauces it supports
- any decentralized grill you recommend
- how many of those did you age in secret before releasing it?

Btw, wasn't it supposed to be Pork of Steak? 

No idea what you're asking here, how many people does it take to keep the coins secure, or how many people are using Coinbase in order for it to have 2 million coins in reserves? But in any case, yeah there are enough!

Anyhow, it has been known for years Coinbase had at least 1 million coins in storage before the last bull run, so two million now with people fleeing from other exchanges might not be impossible. Also, those two million coins are not just coins on the exchange, some of them are from the Coinbase Custody program and that piece of the pie might be the bigger one, it's aimed at investors with big pockets that pay to keep their coins safe!

If I would have told you that SBF is not the JP Morgan he thinks he is, that behind the billions in FTX there are just a couple of millions, that their internal documents were stored on emails, that there is no accounting being done, that nobody knew who really worked there or not,  how would you have reacted when you saw FTX as the everything killer that might take over the world?

If the Madoff scheme was allowed to happen for years, if FTX managed to fool everyone, then what's so special about ARK that it can't be a failure too? Remember that ARK did all the past profits on booming markets, when the shit has finally hit the fan they are losing billions, just like cryptos, and if those can go bankrupt, what's stopping the same from happening here too?

Basically, the whole defense you put for AK is, no this can't be real, cause...I don't want to. 


Guess not:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/business/dealbook/genesis-crypto-restructuring-adviser.html
Oh, and they need 2.8 billion just to cover debt at this point.

The gambling board is a spam fest but just look back at how you asked people for help with your problem:


Nearly anyone reading this would identify you losing your money while gambling as the problem that needs to be solved, not how to dodge the fees you're losing in transferring coins and how to avoid withdrawing fees. Common, that board has far more problems than one which could have been easily solved by asking directly the question, not going through really confusing details, you basically locked the topic with the message that would have been the first.

Plenty of them, even here:
Bitcoin Predicted During Pokemon in 1999

Some others try to find the meaning of their own name in the series and go completely overboard
Brock Pierce explains the origins of "Satoshi Nakamoto"


And there is more:

Never underestimate what a bored mind can come up with!


Maybe he was watching Sailor Moon and he was in love with Sailor Victory, so he took the name Nakamoto to act like he was her husband.
Or, he was a fan of Neko x Neko, and this is just a reference, no comment on what that anime is about.

So, let me recap
- you have no idea what the halving is
- you have no idea how mining works
- you have no idea who Satoshi Nakamoto was
- you have an idea who Satushi Nekamo was

Seeing this and your firm belief in free bitcoins, you're the perfect victim for a scam like the one described by the OP.


Mining is not baking cookies that you have to check on them every minute, there are programs and apps with alarms, configurations with triggers for almost every kind of failure, and automatic or notification tasks, you can force reboot on a mine automatically if the hashrate drops, you can shut it down when the temperature reaches x, all automatically without you sleeping like a rabbit in 15-minute intervals.


Let's stop with the exaggerations.
All you need is cheap power and a bit of capital, probably less than 1% of home miners were millionaires when they started mining.

So was Madoff!


Oh yes, we have already the data:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cathie-wood-ark-innovation-etf-losses-51648812055

Cathie Wood's flagship ARK fund suffers the biggest monthly outflow in nearly a year as performance continues to suffer


And now we know the reason for her aggressive BTC to 1 million calls.
Popcorn time, let's see how much of those previous gains were lies and how much other lies, might add up to 100%, just like Madoff!

Wow, thee must be a lot of LGBT members in Russia based on this assumption



I wonder why here LGBT doesn't matter, of course, there are no such people in the Philippines or Malesia or Vietnam or Sarcasmland.
Let's throw in Mexico or Brazil?
You're going to have a shock once you realize there is different world outside what russiatoday is telling you.


They afford to give birth, but they don't afford to actually grow them and provide the resources for studying and changing their lives, they will live in poverty, sharing the few pennies their parents earn, then marry at your age to split the costs of living then having more kids because that's how they were bought up and so on and on.
The same thing happened in Europe also, my grandparents combined had 21 brothers and sisters, and now only one of all my same-age relatives has 2 kids the rest, just like me have just one.

The focus has shifted from having a large family to supporting each other to having a smaller one that can afford everything without sacrifices.


Oh wait, does this invalidate the other 10 articles you linked about the sky-high unemployment that will follow this "recession", and other predictions? 

FTX was founded in 2019, so it's hardly an old exchange even by bitcoin standards, barely 3 years old and only getting world recognition in the bull run in 2021, when probably all the troubles also started.


Of some?
No, of everyone involved, because what could have been other than greed that made you deposit your tokens on a barely regulated entity with no guarantee other than their word for a 5-15%  APY? Common, honesty time, there are hundreds even now on this forum who despite all the crashes, despite the bolded announcement on top of the page will still deposit their tokens for returns, because an x10 in a few years is not enough, they want another 2x, and they want it now!
This would have not happened if everyone would have played by the first rule, be your own bank, do not trust a wanna-be bank with your coins, worse than actual banks, and for what?
SBF could have been the scammer of all cammers, if none would have trusted him with money he couldn't have scammed anybody!


Or, or, let me voice this outrageous idea...
We could do without every single of those companies that need to be supervised by some entity.

See, simple, it's me and the merchant, the money is in my wallet it goes to the merchant when I buy something, it goes to my friend's wallet when I want to give him money, no ftx, no celsius, no, voyager, no #safu!

Yes, very real, if there was no mining gear there would be no working blockchain now.

But cloud mining, mining apps, all those schemes with 100% to 1000% monthly returns are just scams.With profitability down the drain there is no way to make money right now even with mining companies that were
almost legit, like bitdeer.

So, avoid them like the plague.


Virtual money, numbers in a script that showed you what the owner wanted, as real as gold coins in an RPG game.

Or, if we simplify things
From 2009 till now it went from 0 to 16k, so in 2035 it will add another 16k. 
Because you know, extrapolation:




What can she do other than this?
It would be stupid for her to say something negative and it cost also zero to claim everything on Twitter or on Instagram or whatever
If she manages to convince one person to fund her investment it's a gain for her with near zero effort.

But when in these bearish times I see this kind of stuff it means some are getting really desperate, probably everyone is afraid he's next in line, and nobody trusts his business partner anymore, so their only way out of this is good for everyone would be a bull run, money flows in, losses are covered, everyone is happy!
Oh, btw it was 1.36m by 2030 in April
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has set a price target of $1.36 million for BTC-USD by 2030.
And 500k in 2026
Cathie Wood predicts bitcoin will surge to $500,000 in 5 years

Never underestimate stupidity, Faraday Future is my favorite example:

How to destroy billions in funding, bankrupt partner companies as well as yourself, and still somehow manage to be worth billions!
And this will happen to a few of those mining companies, but of course not all, some will just be forgotten but some will receive more funding than they would ever produce, sums that make no sense unless bitcoins grow x100 at which point you would have to ask yourself, why not buy the coins directly?

The current mess is clearly unsustainable, yes small, home, hobby and small private businesses can and will survive even at the 5cent per th/s we see now, but for a company that pays hundreds of thousands of dollars on expenses that don't exist on a small scale, nothing, not even the 3-4 cents per kWh will make it up, to turn the company profitable, being able to pay some CEOs wage and still return profits to investors.
Unless the price booms in the next months we will see a decrease in hashrate, for sure, but I don't share the enthusiasm on the amount of exahash will disappear, just browsing the forum I see news about companies and investment funds, and individuals pouring money into companies that face liquidity problems and near bankruptcy, a lot of those will find a lifeline, that won't happen twice or thrice but in the first instance, it will do.

Going through your links


53 months of ROI, nice, but 30 million per exa, 30 000 per petahash, 30$ per th/s. That's not bad, isn't it?
Salvageable?


Definitely, mmm, fudge!!!!  

Let's leave this here, I'm curious if the hashrate goes indeed down by 10% what will change?


Oh, and btw, thank god this drop in mined blocks didn't happen last week when Binance dumped those 150vMb transactions!

The model is not new and it's quite standard in other industries.
It's normal for a company to pay on the amount it makes, the other type of payments might just make you lose money, I know the adult industry was focusing on a few methods and abandoned them one by one
- PPI, pay per impression, easy to fake, end up paying just for advertising, maybe zero sales from 1 billion instant close of the advent page,
- PPC, pay-per-click, easy to the fake, same stuff you end up paying thousands and no real sign-up and no money spent
- PPS, pay per sale, obviously, you get money for each sale, just like the above:
but again can be faked, you sign-up with two accounts, you make an arbitrage on a bet, and you get in one account ~$560-580, the other loses, but you still gain 100 from referrals, but it's on a lower scale, and far easier to trace abusers
-revenue share, the guy pays 50$ a month for a subscription you get 10-20% of the sale. Can't be faked, and can't be taken advantage of unless you play with stolen cards, which is really not worth it as the chargeback will show up before you get paid.

I don't get the

This is tricky, it's a commission on how much a referral has lost and not the entire deposited sum, then if your referral hits a jackpot and goes on a positive balance with a few hundred thosuands you're done for as the other must lose the same thousands just to ket your balance positive.

Anyhow, not new:
[Primedice] Affiliate Program: Passively earn 10% of house edge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=745779.0

Oh, so you finally realized that the doom and gloom and all that crap was, well, just crap?
Remember how offended you were and you messaged me when called you out while repeating the same stuff as that crappy propaganda?
And look how, no disaster, no wild reindeer hunting for human flesh in the cities, no starved penguins migrating from Antarctica to Europe, no collapse, no nothing.
Who would have thought of that?


You, of course, can't predict a single thing, and I wonder why the hell you keep on trying unless you're really masochist and you enjoy people making fun of your predictions.
Let's go over them again.
- the collapse of the EU industry while, what a surprise, we're still posting economic growth
- the fall of Ukraine in May with Russia conquering half of it before that?
- the 300$ barrel of oil?
- the surplus and the boom in Russian exports while, what a surprise, Russia has entered a deficit?
- the lack of food in the Eu? Lol, the starvation...
- the donkey-driven Europe while Germany alone sells as many new cars as the whole of India (passenger cars, not mopeds)
- and of course the $5000 per whatever gas which again shows just how ignorant you are, as obviously the fucking price is in Euros per MW.

But if you enjoy it, if you enjoy becoming the laughing stock next to the other wanna-be superpower propagandist keep doing it, at least, it's funny to see you screaming in pain we're not collapsing and not reverting to your standards.

FTX losses $8 billion, somebody buys $4 million of shares, we just need about 2 000 more of these and maybe we will get back in the system the same amount of money that has evaporated. Of course, without any guarantee, this new batch of billions won't have the failure of the previous one.

Viewing this from the sideline and not caring a bit about them it's so damn amusing, I remember how there were discussions about how FTX move to buy the failed business was such a great move, how it will help with taxes, the whole blood on the street, and now after that entire fallout, some authors and some "investors" are just promoting the same non-sense.
Let's see how this will go, if Genesis fails also, I hope we will finally get rid of the whole thing with investing in companies that leverage your money in a Ponzi scheme and we stick to buying bitcoins and holding our bitcoins. If a fund can't invest legally in BTC then maybe it's far better to not invest in anything related and keep it traditional than making the mess that pension fund did.

They are still coming up with this :

Their magical geothermal well that somehow evaporated, the bitcoin mining promoted in videos is dead with no talk about the operation, energy prices are matching those in nearby countries, Salvador is a net importer of energy, and they still claim they are able to invest in mining? Companies involved in mining are facing bankruptcy and the revenue has come down to some measly 5$ for every 75kwh burned but some still think this will be catchy, let's promote mining although we have no serious clue how it will work and there is a 90% chance of being a money pit!

The bright side on this is that it's nice they haven't gone with their plan at 40k/BTC at least they are able to buy the famous dip Bukele keeps hitting it!


You build a city from scratch, you exempt businesses and citizens from taxes, you build the infrastructure for free energy, and somehow magically you will get 6.5% returns!
Is that better than Celsius rates?