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3141  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Average Weekly Investment on: May 27, 2020, 10:03:28 AM
In my opinion it is normal to see a soar in average weekly investments in Q1 2020 that's because of two factors
The covid-19 pandemic and the bitcoin halving

The halving, sure. But people investing in bitcoin because of the pandemic? Nah man. Sure there are some, but in the whole picture, I don't think so. People have been losing jobs, and I don't think them putting money in a speculative asset is a realistic expectation.

Agree that bitcoin is at present a highly speculative asset for investment during the 'good times', and the first thing that people pull money out of at times of crisis... but... we can't deny that the current global economic situation is throwing a harsh spotlight on the fiat system and its inadequacies. I would be surprised if this wasn't making more people understand the inherent strengths of bitcoin and take a punt on its long-term future as a (negatively-correlated) safe-haven. Not so much 'normal people' who are losing jobs and experiencing financial insecurity - but if I was a millionaire with traditional assets all over the place, I'd certainly be taking a look at crypto right now for at least a percentage of my portfolio.
3142  Other / Meta / Re: This is why you can’t do that. on: May 27, 2020, 09:51:50 AM
My previous thread get moved to politic & society section!! And not receiving letter why they punish my thread? I smell abuse of power here?! Somebody report me!
Don't know who moved it, but it makes more sense to be in P&S as it is not about Economics. It's not punishment, it's good housekeeping. This one should be in P&S too - or deleted for duplication! You should probably move it and/or lock it.


Edit:
-You can’t eat wildlife peta
Partly PETA maybe... but also COVID-19. This is not the time to go out hunting for delicious bats and pangolins.
3143  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The logic of man in this devastating crisis on: May 27, 2020, 09:39:26 AM
^^^ Proof?

Apologies, I normally provide a source but forgot to in this instance. Figures are from the Office of National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

If you want more detail, this is probably a clearer example:
https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034



Note - excess mortality is higher in some parts of the UK than in others - but there is an excess in every region.

I know what's coming next - no, I didn't count the individual deaths myself, so I am relying on data obtained by professionals.
Just do a Google image search for 'excess deaths 2020' or similar.

3144  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The logic of man in this devastating crisis on: May 27, 2020, 08:38:02 AM
The answer is that the pandemic is simply a pandemic of fear. What it isn't is a pandemic of Covid-19.
When you put all the medical info together, you will see that people are dying of loads of things other than Covid, but that the medical and government are attributing the deaths to Covid rather than what the people are really dying from.

If you don't believe it, then why not look at total deaths irrespective of attributed cause? Here's the UK total deaths over the last 4 months, compared with the 5-year average.
Something has killed large numbers of people in April 2020. What do you think that might be?





3145  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Richest Billionaires in the US just got richer during the Covid-19 pandemic on: May 27, 2020, 08:27:21 AM
The system is broken. The government just gave a ton of money to the richest people there are and just gave us scraps so we won't complain about it.
It's not broken. Inequality is a feature, not a bug. The system is working entirely as intended.

It's obscene.
I totally agree. It's not just the pandemic, this has been going on for decades. Just look at the last 40 years:


https://boingboing.net/2017/12/14/oligarchy-on-ice.html

3146  Other / Politics & Society / Re: If you think carefully, you can’t do a lot of thing in life on: May 27, 2020, 08:14:27 AM
~

You can actually do most of those things. For many of them, the problem is just that countries have laws, and there are consequences for breaking those laws.

The alternative as others have said is to live somewhere where laws are either not enforced or don't exist. But even if you move to a failed state or an anarchist utopia, you can't escape the fundamental underlying issue here, which is that your actions have consequences. If you live in the world, your actions impinge on the world and on its other inhabitants. Some of those inhabitants, whether law enforcement officers or not, will always take offence at your activities, and may take steps against you.
3147  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin is ...... ? What does your auto fill suggest ? on: May 26, 2020, 12:42:19 PM
Just had a quick trip around the world via VPN. Nothing much different to what has already been posted above... although the first suggestion for 'bitcoin is' from Canada was 'bitcoin Islam' Huh
3148  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is a Store of Value on: May 26, 2020, 10:04:51 AM
Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.
Short-term, Bitcoin is a speculative asset.
I do get annoyed by people saying 1) bitcoin is supposed to be a safe-haven store-of-value, therefore 2) people should having flocked to bitcoin once CV19 hit, which didn't happen, therefore 3) bitcoin cannot be a safe-haven store-of-value.
I agree with your summary above in the sense that bitcoin is currently and was previously a highly speculative asset, and has the potential at some point in the future to become a store-of-value.
Bitcoin now and bitcoin 'end state' are very different things.

If you think Bitcoin is a store of value at any time frame, you are marking yourself as a moron.
Store of value need to be stable, bitcoin is never stable.
It either shoots up in price or crashes down, stable it has never been!
Your third line, I agree.
Your second line, I would argue that a store-of-value should increase, at least intermittently (we are measuring against fiat). Bitcoin needs to be stable if it is to be used as a currency, not as a store-of-value.
But the reasoning in lines 2 and 3 undermine your first line, because you are talking about the past. You can't say that bitcoin will never in future be a store-of-value ("at any time"), and base this conclusion entirely on what bitcoin has been so far.
Bitcoin certainly has the potential to become a safe-haven and a store-of-value. Of course it isn't yet, because of the volatility, which is largely a consequence of the comparatively thin markets... but it's difficult to deny that potential.
3149  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin and COVID on: May 26, 2020, 08:37:53 AM
it's hard to say that Bitcoin can make a difference during this epidemic right now.
Contactless and mobile NFC payments of debit cards are more popular now.
Yes, exactly.

the use of the bitcoin has huge benefits to the whole economy if they will adopt this it may prevent the virus from spreading too. If we use the bitcoin or the cryptocurrency as a transaction we can now avoid getting outside just to transfer your funds, also we can use this for having a secured transaction, and one of the best thing we will not touch any tangible money which is dirty money can cause rapidly spreading the money.

What do you think about this bitcoin adaptation? It can benefit while we are having this pandemic outbreak.
As above. Contactless and mobile for purchases where you have to physically be there, for everything else you can still use your bank card online (or Paypal or similar). This isn't specifically a time to be using bitcoin, it's simply a time not to be using paper and metal money.

Many people stated that bitcoin becomes a safe haven because it still has a good market price that is continuously pumping.
Bitcoin has the potential to be a safe haven. At the moment though we are some way from that point; the volatility in particular make it more of a highly speculative asset. I do think it will become a safe haven eventually, just not for some years yet.
3150  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My first visit to Bitcoin. Share your fast visit price on: May 26, 2020, 08:21:01 AM
Somewhere around 2013 I heard news on the TV about a thing called Bitcoin and it's price going above 1K USD.This is the first time I heard about BTC.In 2014,the Bitcoin price collapsed,so the mainstream media was shitting over Bitcoin and calling a scam and a failed project,so I wasn't interested in BTC at all.

Similar for me, I heard about it in the first few years, it seemed interesting so I thought I'd look into it. Unfortunately my research was only superficial, I read a few articles that explained that bitcoin was a reward you got for solving complex maths puzzles. I couldn't see the point of it, I couldn't see why these puzzles needed to have a reward, couldn't see why bitcoin would have any value, particularly as these weren't problems that needed to be solved - why arbitrary puzzles rather than say working on protein folding or medical research? Initially, I missed the whole point of it. I suspect that if instead I'd managed to find an article about how bitcoin arose as a response to the financial crisis and was devised as a new decentralised monetary system, and the 'maths puzzles' were simply the distribution mechanism rather than the overall purpose, then I'd have been much more interested and would have leapt in there and then.

... I paid the price for my poor research, didn't finally understand what it was until 2017.
3151  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: I see you Tether.....XRP might dump? on: May 23, 2020, 07:42:54 PM
Is there a connection between USDT and XRP?
No.

OP showing the difference cause the market cap of xrp and usdt are close with each other and xrp might go down to 4th spot and tether will advance to 3rd spot.
Yes. The part I don't understand is the thinking behind why the issuance of more tether would cause a price dump for XRP.
USDT is a stablecoin, if it increases in marketcap then this is because more tether have been issued (barring temporary fluctuations when the markets are particularly turbulent). This says absolutely zero about XRP. Can't see a connection here at all, beyond maybe some minor psychological effect of seeing XRP drop a place because more tether have been released.
3152  Economy / Economics / Re: What online service / product would you buy in this recession ? on: May 23, 2020, 07:29:29 PM
BTC
3153  Economy / Economics / Re: The Reason Bitcoin HODL Will Never End Via Halving on: May 22, 2020, 02:47:46 PM
A continuation of moore's law guarantees mining feasibility and profitability over the long term.

Moores law started to stagnate in 2012 with the advent of gpus....

The issue was that gap that's too small means that electrons don't travel at the speed of light and are instead able to use quantum tunneling to teleport to different parts of a processor (in its simplest explanation). Quantum computing or em wave applications in current machines may offer some improvements later on but for the moment we're stuck...

I second what jackg said - electron tunneling is a barrier to further size reduction; the continuation of Moore's law is constrained by the laws of physics. As size reduces, quantum effects such as wave-particle duality become more apparent, and classical approximations are no longer sufficient. You can't just reduce size indefinitely.

Bit of a tangent, but a recent development in quantum computing is that tunneling could become a feature, not a bug...
3154  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Post Your Favorite Trump Memes Here on: May 22, 2020, 10:14:58 AM
Sneak preview of the ballot paper for Nevada and Michigan.

3155  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Metaverse coin ?! on: May 22, 2020, 09:41:17 AM
I remember this coin being the 'next big thing' a couple of years ago, I did buy a small amount at that time, then I sold once the price started dropping, and I haven't seen it again since. Sad to read this thread now and see that the coin has dropped so much - it did seem to have a lot of promise. But yes, it does look now as though this is a terminal decline towards $0, barring some dramatic and unexpected reversal.

Having said that, if you still hold some now, then the price is so low that it might easily get pumped x2 or more, or have a succession of pumps and dumps, so might be worth holding onto for a bit.
3156  Other / Politics & Society / Re: corona virus death count compared with driving deaths on: May 22, 2020, 08:47:54 AM
corona kills around half as many people per day as the traffic of an industrialised nation like the usa.
thats not much.
covid doesn't kill enough people to be relevant,

So - whether your figures are accurate or not - you're saying that for anything that causes fewer deaths than driving, we should just ignore it as it's not important?
That's not a compelling argument as it completely ignores the effects of attempts at prevention and management. As franky1 pointed out, you are measuring "COVID-19 with precautions taken" deaths, and saying it's low so we don't need to take precautions.

Kind of like saying deaths are really low for people who jump out of a plane wearing a parachute, therefore parachutes are a waste of money, let's all jump out of a plane without one.
3157  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: I see you Tether.....XRP might dump? on: May 22, 2020, 07:34:27 AM
I see you Tether.....XRP might dump?

Why would issuance of more Tether impact the XRP price? If there are more Tether coins, that surely has zero bearing on the merits or otherwise of a totally different coin.
Sure if a different coin supplants XRP as #3 in marketcap, there might be some psychological effect - but not when it's a stable coin. What if Tether suddenly issue another 160b coins and take #1 spot from bitcoin? Doesn't make bitcoin worthless.
3158  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Coins for 2020 on: May 21, 2020, 02:48:26 PM
Bitcoin and Ethereum.

I'm sure some alts will outperform these two, but most won't. I would just have Bitcoin in my list, but Ethereum does I believe stand out some distance from other alts both in strength of use case and in history of development, and with 2.0 coming, and with it staking, I think the current price of $200 looks cheap.
3159  Economy / Economics / Re: Probability problem heads or tails ... on: May 21, 2020, 10:01:06 AM
Of course, we all understand that theoretically heads or tails can fall out with equal probability. However, heads can fall out in 100% of cases, as well as tails. I believe that such an event cannot be predicted with 100% certainty.

The more times you repeat the experiment, the closer the results get to 50/50. Have a look at the law of large numbers. Each individual coin toss gives a random result, but those random results average closer and closer to 50% with each additional coin toss you make. This is how casinos work. They can make a big loss on an individual game, but they know the overall percentage over many games averages out in their favour.

Of course in theory the outcome of an individual coin toss is pre-determined and dependent on spin speed and direction, air resistance, etc - but that's a separate issue.
3160  Economy / Economics / Re: Probability problem heads or tails ... on: May 21, 2020, 09:49:45 AM
Player514 gives the correct answer above.

If an example helps, let's consider all possible outcomes, based on a single coin toss being 50/50 heads or tails.

1 coin toss:
H
T
2 outcomes, 50% chance of each (1/2)

2 coin tosses:
HH
HT
TH
TT
4 outcomes (2^2), 25% chance of each (1/4). So 25% chance of HH, 50% chance of one head one tail (TH outcome plus HT outcome), 25% chance of TT.

3 coin tosses:
HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT
8 outcomes (2^3), 12.5% chance of each. So for example chance of getting exactly 2 heads one tail is 37.5% ( = 3/8 = 3 outcomes out of the 8 total), in bold above.

The maths might appear complicated, but is actually quite straightforward. Have a look at this for an example of calculating probability of winning a lottery.

so it's 1/1024 chance ...
Yes.
The chance of the 10th coin being heads is 50%.
But the chance of all 9 preceding coins being heads is (1/2)^9, or 1/512.
So the 10th coin being heads makes your overall sequence ten consecutive heads, so the formula becomes (1/2)^10, or 1/1024.
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