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2421  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 05, 2020, 04:14:13 PM
Remember the time when Mercedes had Rosberg and Hamilton's engineers switched?  And Rosberg started to win races and eventually won the driver's championship?

I don't think that had much if any effect. Rosberg won in 2016 partly through Hamilton's bad luck, and partly through Hamilton's complacency in thinking he would always beat Rosberg. Whilst the reliability problems suffered by Hamilton did cost him the championship (he lost by 5 points), Hamilton did also (metaphorically) take his foot off the gas a little (as well as being uncharacteristically weak on races starts) and Rosberg took full advantage. The final few races of the 2016 season are where I think we see the emergence of the Hamilton we see now, the relentless ultra-consistent winning machine, and it was Rosberg who forced him to raise his game to this new level. I think at the end of the season Rosberg knew he'd been lucky as well as right on the edge for the whole season, and decided to retire at the top rather than face the prospect of continuing to race and never beating Hamilton to the championship again.
2422  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Are people dying from Covid19 or from reaction of the wrong medication? on: December 04, 2020, 08:36:02 PM
share your opinion
Opinions are irrelevant. All that matters are facts.

I wish that were the case. Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who not only hold opinions that are in absolute contradiction to established facts, but also spread this misinformation and keep it in circulation. Which then, using CV19 as an example, leads to the mask-shunning freedom-warriors who help to keep R>1.
2423  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 04, 2020, 02:09:32 PM
Grosjean is going to Abu Dhabi right after he got discharged from the hospital. He want to race in Abu Dhabi when he is able to it. He got the most problems with his left hand at the moment.

I really struggle to understand what F1 drivers are like as people. Obviously they're quite fearless, but after going through that crash the idea that he immediately just wants to race again is difficult for me to process. It's hugely impressive that he's able to do that.
2424  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Privacy Culture Manifesto on: December 04, 2020, 08:55:03 AM
an android app is SNITCH.

Man, that app is so snitch!

I think the word would just get redefined as slang for cool. This might be direct manipulation through some subtle marketing, or it might happen organically once everyone started calling these evil things 'snitch'.

Bad, wicked, sick.

I agree with you wholeheartedly that language can be and is used to modify perspectives and opinions. Even such ludicrous neologisms as 'alternative facts' and 'fake news' have power. I'm not making yet another anti-Trump comment here, but it's fascinating/disturbing how effective he has been at manipulating the lexicon. His success has spawned countless imitators. As a recent example, the UK government is one of the first in the world to approve the new Covid-19 vaccine. Whilst other countries conduct thorough studies on safety and efficacy, the UK simply says 'we'll take it right now!'. But this irresponsibility is immediately cast as a success story. Here's MP Gavin Williamson yesterday, worshipping at the altar of Trumpism as he explains why the UK is first:

Quote
I just reckon we’ve got the very best people in this country and we’ve obviously got the best medical regulators. Much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have. That doesn’t surprise me at all because we’re a much better country than every single one of them
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/03/gavin-williamson-britains-a-much-better-country-than-all-of-them

The establishment is already so snitch at using language to their advantage, that I don't think it can be weaponised against them in the defence of privacy.
2425  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How will Trump leave the White House? on: December 03, 2020, 07:26:08 PM
almost as far fetched as Cnut's Trump the Near-Nuclear Holocaust Despot.

I never said he was a despot! I just implied it.

And he was aiming for a nuclear holocaust to cement his legacy.

Quote
Trump Sought Options for Attacking Iran to Stop Its Growing Nuclear Program
The president was dissuaded from moving ahead with a strike by advisers who warned that it could escalate into a broader conflict in his last weeks in office.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html

I'm so grateful we have experts! Without these people, we'd never have guessed that bombing a nation that has a nuclear capability might have consequences!
And if Trump listened to experts more often he might not have accidentally made 23,035 false or misleading claims in 1,331 days as POTUS*.



*last updated Sept. 11, 2020
2426  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Pfizer chief exec sold 62% of his shares. on: December 03, 2020, 01:51:47 PM
He knows something about markets that many people don't. Buy the rumour, sell the news.




Does he know something about vaccines that we don't know?
He runs a biopharmaceutical company. So, yes.
2427  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] What is the value of 2 + 2? on: December 03, 2020, 12:06:33 PM
I voted 5, because this is what we are taught to believe and expected to believe. 2+2=5 is the litany of the modern world.

In practice it's difficult to get any two things in alignment, so let's consider them to be vectors. In which case any answer between 0 and 4 is correct (if not socially acceptable), and pointed in whatever direction.
2428  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US ELECTION, OUR FATE. on: December 03, 2020, 11:09:07 AM
I no longer think there's much danger of that.
There is another thread that discusses the potential dangers of Trump's remaining time in office. He did try to initiate a nuclear holocaust, but was (thankfully) shot down (unfortunately only metaphorically) by his advisors.

I was wondering what sort of carnage a furious and vengeful Trump might wreak between now and Biden's inauguration

Hate to answer my own question, but here we go, from the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear.html

It appears that Trump is aiming for a nuclear holocaust as his legacy. Whatever his faults, you can't say he doesn't think big...

For me, this marks a turning point. The party is starting to challenge him, and block some of his most outrageous moves. Trumpism will likely remain, but the man himself will go. He's even said he will leave the White House if the Electoral College confirm Biden. I still think there's zero chance of Trump actually admitting he lost the election, but it seems there's now a decent chance that he will go peacefully.
2429  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 03, 2020, 09:17:38 AM
I am really happy about Mick Schumacher will race for Haas in F1 next season. It is really good to see a Schumacher in F1 again. I'm sad for hearing that Lewis Hamilton got covid-19. I hope he gets well quickly. George Russell has a good opportunity to show himself in a Mercedes in remaning races. I hope he uses this chance nicely.

The most interesting thing for me is how Russell shapes up against Bottas. Remember Bottas was widely thought to be an excellent driver until he joined Mercedes and found himself measured against the relentless winning-machine that is Lewis Hamilton. It's a completely different sort of pressure to be driving in the best car and being expected to win. It will be fascinating to see how Russell handles it.

Yes, also good to have the Schumacher name back next season. Let's hope he is as exciting to watch as his dad was. And we also have Alonso coming back, too:)
2430  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Privacy Culture Manifesto on: December 03, 2020, 09:03:37 AM
No, that has never been true. For example, my family, and friends, and even dog, have much higher value to me (and just about everybody) than items which directly or indirectly transmute to money.

You are of course correct. I was wrong, my focus too narrow.

How might we use family and friendship bonds to encourage people to value and retain their privacy? Is there a way to associate privacy with reward in this context? Or is the approach to reinforce the negative consequences to family and friends of surrendering our privacy? If so, how? Many people currently give away through social media not only their own privacy, but also that of loved ones. Is this an angle of attack? So instead of saying "don't share your personal data" to which people think "it's my data, I don't mind"... we say "don't share the personal data of your loved ones" and emphasise that to do so might cause emotional or financial damage to these people that you care about. The result then being that you value their right to privacy, and so are more likely in turn to value your own.

Or is there something else, other than family/friends, that everyone (or almost everyone) values more than they value $$$?
2431  Other / Politics & Society / Re: UK has approved Covid Vaccine - Will you take it if you’re in UK? on: December 02, 2020, 08:55:10 PM
Jet Cash, I'm interested in your thoughts on this post from earlier in the thread.
As far as I can see, the arguments you are making against the Covid-19 vaccine are the same as those that were made in the 19th Century about the Smallpox vaccine... but the Smallpox vaccine was a good thing, right?
2432  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Privacy Culture Manifesto on: December 02, 2020, 08:49:55 PM
I took the short route rather than the theoretical.

Step 2: Make privacy resources truly, really at hand for everybody. As a comparative test, consider Amazon 1 click purchasing. This really, REALLY gave Amazon a lot of business compared to 9 to 15 click alternatives.

Where's my 1 click privacy, dude?

Cnut: See this places privacy right in the middle of a free capitalist market, if not of money then of ideas. There can NEVER BE a "government solution" to this hence political dialectic is not solution oriented.

Next: Positive AND Negative incentives to Privacy
The manifestation of value in a free capitalist market is money, and only money. To make privacy valuable, we have to monetise it. Instead of an apparently valueless commodity that people are happy to give away for free, we make their privacy worth $$$. But there is only one result:

the users will then happily sell all of their privacy to the highest bidder, which resolves nothing.
In fact, worse than resolving nothing, it legitimises the surveillance capitalism and the loss of privacy. Privacy is no longer being stolen; it is being purchased at the market rate.

if not of money then of ideas
But ideas have no intrinsic value in a capitalist market. Their value lies only in their potential to create money.


I still can't see any route to making people value and want to retain their privacy other than by a deliberate modification of the definition of value, such that it is separated from money, such that privacy itself becomes something that is desirable, rather than being something that is considered primarily in terms of its monetary equivalent.
I don't believe that any grassroots approach can be successful. Anything that is a threat to the system is suppressed efficiently and with utter ruthlessness. So in practice, as I see it, the most likely (rather, least unlikely of all the unlikely options) is that someone different gets elected. Coming back to the US (sorry, but it is a perfect example)... Biden is the system, Trump is the system on steroids (so, in my view, worse), and then Sanders is the alternative with a different definition of value.

2433  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Privacy Culture Manifesto on: December 02, 2020, 03:56:35 PM
...
....

Note to self:  Merit this later....

As a simple example of inducement to privacy, consider a 'what if'. Suppose contributors to a discussion on privacy were five times more likely to receive merit than the average thread. You'd have the most popular thread, wouldn't you?

Note to self:  Merit this now....
2434  Other / Politics & Society / Re: UK has approved Covid Vaccine - Will you take it if you’re in UK? on: December 02, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
Vaccines are being mass produced and it's unclear if it is mandatory to take them or not. So far I am still waiting on more information regarding the side effects of the vaccine.

In the UK, at risk groups will get the vaccine first. I would imagine, given the worldwide demand hugely outstripping supply, that the situation will be similar in other countries. So unless you're in an 'at risk' category (or one of certain types of health professional), the likelihood is that by the time you get your chance to take the vaccine, it will have already been given to a sizeable proportion of the older population, so any side-effects will be well-known (although these should already be documented as a part of the trials and the approval process).

By a quirk of fate, Jet Cash will be in one of the earlier groups to be offered the vaccine here in the UK.
2435  Other / Politics & Society / Re: UK has approved Covid Vaccine - Will you take it if you’re in UK? on: December 02, 2020, 11:34:10 AM
accuse anti-vaxers of killing people
I've had this discussion with you before, regarding the Polio vaccine.
It is proven that vaccines save lives.


There is no evidence that modern vaccines save lives
The 'modern' argument implies that you're accepting that vaccines used in the past were effective... you're just against taking the one that's being discussed right now. It's not a convincing argument. Next year it might be 'Yes, the Covid-19 vaccine worked, but the Avian-Flu-20 vaccine is a scam!'.
The anti-vax argument is not modern. It has been around for a long time, and disproven over and over again.
Here's the start of an anti-vax campaign pamphlet from 1885... was the Smallpox vaccine effective?


https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=aeu.ark:/13960/t7wm29713&view=1up&seq=5
2436  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 02, 2020, 10:04:53 AM
Heard Hamilton also can't take part in the last race of the season. If that's so, it's a weird season end for him. Became the champion and don't take part of the last 2 races.

Yes. In a way it's fortunate that he contracted it after securing the championship. If he'd caught it earlier in the season he might have missed 3 races, and we'd end up with perhaps Bottas as an undeserved champion - as I'm sure he would have acknowledged. I mentioned this earlier in the season. Fine if Stroll or someone misses a race, but totally different if it's a championship contender.

Lewis Hamilton is currently a long way ahead of the rest, and looks set to be world champion. But... this is dependent on total points acquired over the course of the whole season. If he contracts Covid and misses a few races, he can find himself out of contention. The issue is not that people have Covid, it's that some people have it whilst others don't.
2437  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you believe support and resistance still work in crypto? on: December 02, 2020, 08:26:30 AM
support and resistance
cryptocurrencies

My bold, because this is an important consideration.
Altcoins are often heavily dependent on bitcoin price movement, which can render alt support/resistance levels irrelevant.
Say ETH is $450 and has strong 'resistance' at $500. Bitcoin suddenly surges 50%. ETH 'resistance' evaporates.
2438  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Expectations on: December 02, 2020, 08:12:42 AM
society's expectation towards the youth.

The biggest expectation is that the young people will solve the climate crisis. Of course this is totally unfair, but it's the situation that will be bequeathed. It's a result of the chronic short-termism in modern politics. If the issue isn't having a catastrophic effect right now, then kick the can down the road and let the next generation deal with it. This isn't a left/right thing, all governments are the same. This sort of behaviour manifests all the time, not least in the responses to Covid...


https://xkcd.com/2278/

I hope the next generation can solve the climate crisis, but that doesn't mean we should stop putting pressure on the current generation to sort out the mess they and their predecessors have created. If people only act when it's too late, then it's too late.
2439  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker Probability on: November 30, 2020, 11:04:24 AM
it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down

Mine too. I like games that rely more on skill than brute luck. Poker is fairly simple to learn, but phenomenally difficult to master. I love the combination of skill, maths and psychology. The hardest thing for me is trying to ensure that my play is unpredictable for my opponents. For example, sometimes if I have an excellent hand I will remain very hesitant and low-stakes on betting, and only make a huge bid later on, when some random low value card is revealed.
2440  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting on Open ending events? Should casinos continue offering them? on: November 30, 2020, 08:37:48 AM
I was wondering if after the "Trump vs Biden" US election fiasco... if casinos should still be offering bets on events like that?

I can't see a problem. The determination of what constitutes a result should be set out clearly beforehand. If this is unclear, then it's the casino at fault.
If the casino is clear but the gamblers haven't read the definitions, then it's the gamblers' fault.

We don't have to look any further than this forum for an example of how it should be done: clear, concise, agreed and understood in advance.
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