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2401  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: December 10, 2020, 09:21:11 AM
Barcelona are in trouble, they have been for a while now, but they've been in freefall ever since the Bayern result and Messi saying he wanted out. Their descent has been masked to an extent because even a bad Barcelona is still good enough to beat many mediocre teams. But they have zero chance of winning La Liga. Real are better, but not hugely better. I don't think we can see beyond Atletico at the moment for the title, and I'd also expect them to beat Real in the next game.
2402  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid Pandemic Controls on: December 10, 2020, 09:14:14 AM
people believe that masks and "social distancing" make a significant difference

If a virus spreads from person to person, then how would staying away from people not make a significant difference?
What's the alternative? That it's a huge conspiracy run by some nefarious hidden agency who somehow makes vast amounts of money by keeping people 2m away from one another?
Apply Ockham's razor!
2403  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Gullible to be removed from the OED on: December 09, 2020, 11:40:38 AM
it looks as if I may have misunderstood the situation

I disagree with most things you post, but I appreciate it whenever someone admits they made a mistake!
2404  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: PSG vs. Istanbul Basaksehir the AFTERMATH and PREDICITONS on: December 09, 2020, 11:04:06 AM
EPL you see the players all taking the knee in helping to fight against racism.
Don't think the league in romania does any such thing

There are likely more differences between nations than there are within nations. I'd imagine it's easier to co-ordinate all clubs within England than it is to co-ordinate all nations within Europe.
I'm not sure whether or not the official meant to cause any offence, but I suppose intent is not the problem here. It's clear that UEFA needs to do a better job with ensuring that the officials are all up to speed with what can and cannot be said.
2405  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: PSG vs. Istanbul Basaksehir the AFTERMATH and PREDICITONS on: December 09, 2020, 09:58:18 AM
Is the racist remark against the underdog or the better team?

It wasn't directed at a player, it was directed at Istanbul's assistant coach. I was quite impressed that Istanbul left the pitch, and even more impressed that their opponents immediately showed solidarity by joining them in returning to the dressing room.
So because both sides left the pitch, and because it wasn't directed at a player, I don't think there will be any difference between how the two teams respond when they play tonight. In terms of results, I can't see anything other than a PSG win here. But the bigger win is for anti-racism.
2406  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 09, 2020, 09:02:23 AM
Russell is still green and needs more time. He has the pace, but his head needs more time for sure.

Yes, exactly. Russell has shown high potential in the past, and he's now had one end-of-season race in a Mercedes with absolutely zero pressure on him. He was expected to finish behind Bottas. He was a good young driver temporarily filling a gap for one race. He drove very well, and he outperformed the limited expectations.

This is very different to the pressure on Hamilton, fighting for the title, expected always to be at the front, expected to never make a mistake. And Hamilton has proven himself year after year after year, in the dry, in the wet, imperious and often faultless, and overriding poor team decisions that would cost other drivers victory.
Yes, Russell shows promise, and his performance vs Bottas was good, but it also highlights how poor Bottas was. The idea that he can be expected to just slot into Hamilton's role and perform the same as Hamilton over the course of a season is absurd. He may perform well, he may not. The point I'm making is that one good race with zero pressure doesn't immediately transform a talented youngster into a 7-times champion.

Imagine if it was Bottas instead of Hamilton who missed the race, and Russell teamed up with Hamilton. Does anyone seriously think Russell would have been challenging for the win?
2407  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid Pandemic Controls on: December 09, 2020, 08:47:23 AM
chemtrails

You're just considering Arizona, though. There have been Covid deaths all around the world. The Pacific Islands, Africa, South America. You are implying that every nation in the world is setting aside their differences to form some giant airborne conspiracy, and that there are chemical spewing planes over every single populated area on Earth, and you're doing so with zero scientific evidence to back up the claim. It's just not credible.
2408  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: PSG vs. Istanbul Basaksehir the AFTERMATH and PREDICITONS on: December 09, 2020, 08:35:20 AM
PSG is already going to the next round and it is more or less a meaningless game.

There is still some meaning. If PSG win, they can go through as group winners (rather than runners-up), which means they'd be seeded for the first knockout round, and so get an easier match by avoiding the other group winners. So PSG do have something to play for.

For betting purposes, yes, PSG look massive favourites. Perhaps the aftermath of last night's walk-off may have some sort of lingering psychological or emotional effects on the players, but I'd be surprised if it's enough to swing the tie in Istanbul's favour.

But if PSG were already certain to finish runners-up rather than winners no matter what the result, then it might indeed be different.
2409  Economy / Economics / Re: EU reality and challenges. on: December 09, 2020, 08:22:36 AM
Italy [...] fiscal extravagance.

It's the old European idea of the frugal north vs the profligate south. Brexit is often viewed as the UK harming itself (which it is), but it also weakens the EU as one of the major contributors on the 'fiscally responsible' side departs. Covid and Brexit combined will place a lot of stress on the EU, and it's not at all clear how this will turn out. I've seen quotes from the Portuguese PM (they take the presidency soon) raising the 'two tier' idea once again. It's clear that something needs to be done, but getting everyone to agree on what that something is may be difficult.
2410  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid Pandemic Controls on: December 08, 2020, 12:04:26 PM
the jets

The common factor around the globe that caused the dramatic reduction in Covid cases from around April isn't 'the jets'. Consider instead lockdowns, social distancing, contact tracing, etc. Go to the link below, and press the play button. This will show you the extent to which each nation took action to prevent the spread, and when they took action. Compare your findings to the other charts on that site, including the one in the post you quoted. You can even download the source data.


https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid
2411  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 08, 2020, 10:25:46 AM
Most of you forget that teams have 2 drivers - the one that tries to win the championship title and the second that helps him accomplish this goal.
Yes, definitely. I'm always trying to make this point, too. The aim at Mercedes is to a) win the constructors' championship, and b) win the drivers' championship.
Compare Bottas with Rosberg. Rosberg was the faster driver, and more willing and able to fight with Hamilton. Bottas is the better team player.
Bottas is good enough, and the chances of him and Hamilton going wheel to wheel and both crashing out of a race is far far less than it was with Ham/Rosberg.
Bottas is the perfect teammate.
The only time this changes is if Merc dominance drops and they are in a genuine fight for the championship. If say Hamilton is still winning races, but Red Bull are coming 2nd and 3rd each time and threatening for the constructors' title, that's when it's time to consider replacing Bottas.

Bottas is doing his job greatly on Mercedes -all those seasons - and the only way that Russell is going to have chances of joining Mercedes will be if Hamilton announces his retirement...
Having said the above, we haven't considered other drivers' personalities. If Russell is faster than Bottas and crucially is also not going to be a Rosberg 2.0 and have conflict with Hamilton, then Russell replacing Bottas becomes a real option. Ultimately Mercedes will know Russell's personality and have a decent understanding of whether this is viable. But we need to remember that brute speed is not the only factor to consider. In a sport where there are two drivers per team, personality is key.

Edit to fix rogue apostrophe!
2412  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bitamp Bitcoin Web Wallet - Send & Receive Bitcoin Instantly! on: December 08, 2020, 08:57:47 AM
What's the safest crypto?

Probably Bitcoin, and not for a single reason. It’s arguably too big too fail now. Governments can’t stop it. Hackers can’t crack it, quantum computers won’t get near for many years, and it’s also got states and pension funds and big institutions all backing it now. It’s here to stay, and that’s as safe as it gets for crypto!

Agree?

The future of bitcoin definitely looks more secure now than ever, and as you say the fact that it's drawing in institutional players is a major factor. The quantum computer vulnerability does concern me, though. Whilst it's true that a viable QC attack on bitcoin is some way off, it's also true (I think) that bitcoin won't be able to respond immediately. Moving bitcoin to a quantum-proof cryptography means that all coins from all addresses will also have to be moved. Any coins that are not moved - and this includes 'lost' coins - will remain vulnerable to attack. One common estimate is that around 20% of bitcoins are 'lost'... and a sufficiently powerful QC running Shor's algorithm would be able to acquire these. Should they want to (assuming for conspiracy theory purposes that the QC is owned by a state actor that sees crypto as a threat), the thief could then dump these coins on the market and trigger a catastrophic and perhaps terminal crash.
I do agree with your point, and as you say a viable QC is likely years away, but this threat needs to be addressed long before it actually becomes a threat.
2413  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid Decoherence: Schrödinger’s Virus (I forgot to change the title back) on: December 07, 2020, 06:03:25 PM
How can I force the collapse to the "not-real" side

I'll handle this!

Quantum virus collapse is more properly considered as a state vector reduction. So, simply state: "vector reduction". Click your heels three times, too. This transports you to Copenhagen, where the Danish healthcare system will resolve everything. Just check the visitor list to make sure Dr Wigner hasn't got any "friends" visiting... those guys can send you right back into babbling indeterminacy. Speaking of which, I'll end the post there.
2414  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How tricky is this? on: December 07, 2020, 09:52:59 AM
"In an accumulated bet, why is it often the last games that goes rugged and you end up loosing what's supposed to be a best bet and was already preparing for a cash out or the next step"

I don't think this is the case. It's just that it's more noticeable when it's the last bet.
Similar to how whenever you join a queue at a supermarket, it feels like it is always the slowest moving queue and people in the nearby queues are getting to the checkout much quicker... but actually what is happening is that you only notice it when you're in the slower queue... when you're in the faster queue, you never even think about it.
2415  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Are people dying from Covid19 or from reaction of the wrong medication? on: December 06, 2020, 08:06:13 PM
Notice that all of this is judgment calls. We don't have the technology available to determine exactly, for sure, what anybody died of.
20% Covid, 10% heart disease, 70% hospital operations. I mean, they were in the hospital, weren't they? And that doesn't even include what the hospital people did to cover up what really happened.

No, it's maths and science, not an arbitrary pin-the-tail-on-the-cause-of-mortality.
You can work it out for yourself even if no cause of death is attributed... just look at the figures for excess mortality. 2020 has seen far far more deaths than usual. Something new is killing people. You can see from the chart below that the trend coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic. And if you go to the link, you can select other countries too, and see the same pattern repeated around the world.


https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
2416  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 06, 2020, 07:52:37 PM
Perez deserved to win since 2010 and should've had a lot of victories since now but finally he achieved it.
I feel bad for Russell, but yes Perez deserved a victory at some point. Can't believe he is currently still without a drive for next season.


The one who had this podium roch is a rich men.
There were some huge odds on Russell winning this - obviously we didn't know at the time that he'd end up driving a Mercedes, but he was 3,000-1 for the win before Hamilton got sidelined. Crazy if you managed to put a bet on at those odds, and awful to then see him dominate the race and lose it in the way he did.


Bottas is not a Mercedes driver
Bottas had one job today: do better than Russell. He failed. It's not a great look for him at all, and should bring his future into question. One factor in his favour is that he is a good team player and willing to play second to Hamilton... and given how easily Mercedes win the constructors' title, they can afford a second driver who lets Hamilton perform at his best.
2417  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: December 06, 2020, 03:06:02 PM
it's Merc 1 - 2 with Bottas in pole position.  Put Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, maybe Ricciardo, maybe Raikkonen, maybe Perez, maaaybe even Norris in that Merc, they'll get pole.
Not convinced Vettel or Raikkonen would be up there, but agree with the others. Still, if they were partnering Hamilton instead of Bottas, they'd be fighting for second, not first Smiley


I guess...  But Merc's decision of the switching of engineers back and forth was a little sketchy imho.  And 5 points is enough to prove that engineers do play a part, if all things being equal.
I think the main effect of the engineer change was in Hamilton's mind. Probably it had little to no actual effect for the races, but it certainly affected Hamilton's mindset. And a key reason for Rosberg's triumph in 2016 was that he was able to exploit Hamilton's mental state.
2418  Other / Off-topic / Re: What if all creations of the God become disobedient, will he be powerless? on: December 05, 2020, 05:29:21 PM
Jesus has been given the authority to look out through the eyes of everybody, and to feel what everybody feels... individually or in any group combination of all the people on Earth.

I just have a different perspective to you, I suppose. People who follow a religion and follow the precepts of that religion are often kind, caring, thoughtful individuals who are sincerely interested in helping the human race as a whole. I just think (no right or wrong, just my opinion) that belief in a god is too convenient and allows us to defer responsibility for our actions to a higher authority. To me, this seems dishonest and unhelpful (again, no right or wrong, just my opinion). If we are rational sentient beings, then the things we do wrong are because of our own actions and our own free will, and the route to redemption exists within the self.
2419  Other / Off-topic / Re: What if all creations of the God become disobedient, will he be powerless? on: December 05, 2020, 05:11:36 PM
how can God control and be all powerful?
He invented Trump.

Ignoring for the moment that I'm a rampant antitheist, this idea does actually have some weight (but not merit, because your intent is impure).
Given the slew of presidential pardons we are all expecting over the next month, The Donald could well be Saviour 2.0, offering redemption for all sinners, and casting the deficiencies and corruptions of the modern world into stark focus. We get the Jesususeses that we deserve.

Edit:
Turns out the rework on the Borja Ecce Homo wasn't so much a botched restoration as a perfectly accurate updating for the new incumbent.


2420  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Expectations on: December 05, 2020, 04:23:51 PM
The biggest expectation is that the young people will solve the climate crisis. ....
That may well be your biggest expectation, very few share it.

You can only kick the can down the road so far. Once the can gets caught by the tide due to rising sea levels, you have to stop pretending and actually confront the problem.
Whether or not the next generation can solve the crisis, who knows, but they will certainly be forced to face it for what it is.

At some point the $$$ you can make from continuing with polluting behaviour is outweighed by the $$$ you lose from flood damage, crop failure etc.
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