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321  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TED discussion - Bitcoin - Commerce without Borders on: August 29, 2011, 10:19:46 PM
Without any doubt I'm in this for profit, if anyone tells you they are not, don't trust that guy. XD

Really? Neither myself nor anyone I know is into Bitcoin "for profit". Changing the world, getting rid of unnecessary middlemen making money without bringing anything to the table, yes. Creating digital cash for the digital generation, yes. Removing the ability for government to devalue the worth of their citizens, yes.

However, some are, and I agree that the "trade buy buy buy profit!" messages don't really help in convincing people Bitcoin isn't ponzi/pyramid/early-adopter-get-rich etc.
322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 10:05:28 PM
a skilled player will win in the long run for sure

Feel free to quantify your "for sure" with actual data, showing that there are "skilled" traders that can outperform chance.

The point is that no one has been able to show that.
323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 09:37:24 PM
You can read "market wizards". There is no need to reinvent the wheel.

You still don't understand the concept of chance.

324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 08:36:29 PM
people not even trying to understand

There's no data that supports your position. There's plenty of data to support ours.

325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 08:03:48 PM
Given a fixed amount of money ($100) and a fixed time frame (month), can a specific trader in isolation beat the market by at least some percentage (3%) using only charts and indicators but no news media? Then do it again next month and next?

The answer is no. However, since there are lots and lots of such traders someone will - but it's not due to skill but simply chance.

326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 07:43:36 PM
heh... is that head of yours hurting from bashing it against the wall enough times already? I feel for you, defxor  Grin

Perhaps someone should start a thread on statistics. Or a thread called "No matter how well you're doing, if you're one of many it's still pretty much random".

Hehe. At one point in time I was really surprised that people who worked in the financial industry didn't know statistics and randomness inside out. Then I realized that if you do, you probably don't work in that sector at all (or you make sure you can cheat, like implementing HFT algo's in co-located servers).

I have a special pet peeve with TA though. I can understand people who do FA to really really believe that they're basing their trades on valid data, but ... TA? Really?

"No matter if Bernanke decides to hike the interest rate hundreds of points tomorrow my charts with pretty trendlines says we're in a head & shoulders touching feet kinda pattern and that means that we will break out of this downward channel .. "

But I guess I'm just not good at it Wink
327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 07:30:32 PM
However, if after taking note of this ONE individual, he continues to flip heads, heads, heads, heads then you should start suspecting a duplicate sided coin, because this is statistically significant.

Yes! Cheesy The point is that so far there's no trader ever that has outperformed chance, that is, has been trading at a statistically significant level that cannot just be explained with being one out of all traders in existence.

If someone claims to be such a trader, and in addition claims to have a method behind it, that will result in an instant Nobel Prize.
328  Other / Archival / Re: Earning "free" bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 06:13:06 PM
http://strikesapphire.com runs continuous $1.10 Hold'em freerolls and also something that's quite unique, a Risk-type board game called ChipWars with both 3 and 6 person freerolls at $1.10 and $6 each.

(They're BTC only for deposits and withdrawals, the $ is just used internally)

No referral link. I dislike referrals Wink
329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 05:42:10 PM
While I think I understand what you mean when you say for every Up there is a Down, what you actually said was both incorrect and irrelevant. Your argument seems to be that because a system is closed it is therefor homogeneous (no entropy) or unpredictable (maximal entropy).

No, that's not at all what I said. I was specifically talking about what happens when you have many actors essentially performing at random on any market.

Nicholas Taleb wrote a book about it called "Fooled by randomness".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness
330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 04:44:47 PM
Do remember that for every market-beating robot gain there would be an equal amount of loss making robots. If you fund them all you will only do (on average) precisely as well as the market.

This is the same as with any trader. We only hear of the successful ones - and then believe them to have special abilities if their performance is statistically significant.

Correct.

I have no idea what you were trying to say with your edits.
331  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TED discussion - Bitcoin - Commerce without Borders on: August 29, 2011, 03:25:19 PM
"too self-promotional."

Textbook definition of ironic actually, considering Bitcoin is decentralized P2P.

(My guess would be that an admin belongs to the "Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme" crowd)

332  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Hard Numbers On How Much Money a Merchant Would Save If They Used Bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 02:56:59 PM
Sadly there's no viable buyer-in-person system for bitcoins at least at the moment. Sad

Bitcoin Wallet on Android? All the merchant needs is an Android mobile to be able to accept Bitcoin payments from customers (who most likely will be using a mobile app themselves, but if they want to carry a laptop with them of course they could Wink

333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 01:59:49 PM
we should have a robot no past technical analyst was better than?

If you have X such trading robots, and X is a high enough number, one or several of them will outperform the market. To get a feeling how high "X" needs to be you'll need to do the calculations.

Do remember that for every market-beating robot there would be an equal amount of loss making robots. If you fund them all you will only do (on average) as well as the market.

This is the same as with any trader. We only hear of the successful ones - and then believe them to have special abilities.
334  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 29, 2011, 01:27:37 PM
Wow, even more defending of holding a bitcoin meeting in a shady place, while it could just as easy be held in any other place without a bad reputation. The people who so badly want this meeting to be in Pattaya have other motives than just bitcoin to do so. I can't help but wonder what they are...

Feel free to voice your concerns, and please be more specific about what those concerns are and who you include in "the people". As to "any other place" I can only assume you're unable to reflect upon the fact that we're discussing but one of the many places conferences are planned to be held.

I have no interest whatsoever in visiting Pattaya. I just dislike ignorance, and "many people are ignorant" is not a good argument Smiley

(I will go to the conference in Amsterdam though, since I go to conferences there regularly anyway)
335  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 29, 2011, 01:12:39 PM
It's not a matter of opinion that Pattaya has a poor reputation. Everyone in this country KNOWS it as a center for the sex industry and other illegal activities. If you don't know that then you plainly have no idea what you're talking about. The question is whether Bitcoins need to be making headlines holding a conference there. I'd vote no.

No, but it's a matter of opinion that Pattaya's unrelated industries would rub off on conferences held there. If you want to claim it does, I suggest you take any one industry or company that has held an event in a Pattaya conference center and show how that has negatively impacted their reputation.

If you cannot do that, your opinion is not based in fact. It is really that simple.

As I've posted earlier:

... Amsterdam is only known for drugs & sex, Pattaya is only known for child prostitution, New York is only known for drug related gang wars, San Francisco is only known as a great place to meet friendly bums, Moscow is only known as the place where former KGB agents assassinate journalists etc.

Not to mention Las Vegas. Omg. How could anyone ever think of placing an event like CES there - especially with the Adult Entertainment Expo just next door?

Now. If Pattaya was the ONLY place Bruce suggested there should be a Bitcoin conference, I would probably agree slightly more. Seeing the absolute onslaught of trolls attacking first Amsterdam (really) and then Pattaya as if that's more important than how great all the other locations are is basically proof this is more about trolling and personal attacks on Bruce than anything else.

I find that quite lame.

336  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 29, 2011, 12:59:07 PM
And I know how conservative and religious and church-affiliated the business is

While the above might be a valid reflection for some who are based in US culture, as a European I see no reason whatsoever to include such opinions in what and where I would ever hold or travel to a conference.

The public mass that we are trying to reach

Reading through your posts on this forum, and how very little facts you seem to base them on, I see no reason for anyone to listen to your opinion on what the "public mass" think or does not think about anything.

As far as I can see, there's a lot of "I think" and "My opinion" in this thread - from the naysayers. The only facts being posted do not support their world views.

337  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 29, 2011, 09:45:23 AM
most of us are more worried

There's still not a single tangible fact to back up those worries posted in this thread. I can only assume a lot of people aren't used to having to base their opinions on facts.

Anyone can claim anything. It's how you support your claims that makes a difference. Trolls cannot usually back up their claims.
338  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to get your local merchants to accept Bitcoin as payment: on: August 29, 2011, 09:43:00 AM
Any suggestions for improvements for the actual text?

Quote
You can exchange them cash

Have a native speaker rewrite the text. While I'm pretty confident in my English myself, I'm not native.

I would also have a graphic designer redo the layout, and I believe we have several on the forums accepting BTC for their work.

339  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What would stop me from issuing gold backed bitcoins? on: August 29, 2011, 09:38:08 AM
On a completely unrelated note, anyone looking to compile vanitygen or oclvanitygen (to get an address like this: 1DrGossc3QidjzgDXzveCAQGiPWsoiDZ8C) on a Mac, pm me...the makefile for v0.17 on github and the makefile in the forum don't quite cut it. I'm just a "newbie" by forum rules, so I can't post elsewhere.

What's the problem with it? I based my edits off Dino's makefile (to build against newer OpenSSL) and "it works for me" but I'd be happy to repost your findings in the vanitygen thread if you'd like.

340  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 28, 2011, 11:02:02 PM
it overall just confirms what a bad choice that place is for a conference, which would promote Bitcoin in the public mind, as opposed to some other kind of conference.

From what I can see there are still no comments on how the above can be true yet Thailand's biggest financial institution and first official bank held an expo on money there in 2009.

But why discuss something that would be relevant?
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