I tried my best but I give up.

I sold my friend's and my sister's coins (all of it) during those 650-ish days, cashed out their fiat and gave them an advise to buy gold instead (which they fully ignored).

I kept my coins because I figured I can mitigate the possible losses by some conservative margin trading (ride the big waves only but do ride those) and I can easily take the remaining risk because the potential is very high. But it's have the potential to get too hectic.

They do have a nice system but it's incomplete. There is no leverage tragind because there is no volume and ... well, I guess ... there is no volume because there is no leverage trading.

Sometime during this summer I did some neutral trades solely for reaching lower fees. I hit something like 0.1% (the price barely moved then, so the risk of losing on the trades was low and there was no way to reach high profits anyway). Later I found out that it's only temporary and now my account has an even higher fee than early on. LOL

I assume a lot of people thought it can't fall below 300$.
When it did, some players stormed in to save the day. They even gave us the false hope of a trend reversal to keep it from repeating too soon.
But I guess they keep limited amount of fiat on the exchanges and have their threshold what they are ready to absorb.
And I guess many people are keeping a much closer eye on the charts and they are still significantly more nervous about the downward price movements after that manbearwall incident.

So, practically everything is set up for an exponentially accelerating freefall.

Meanwhile, the long term trend is still negative (just take a look at the daily chart).


To sum it up, it's practically just a matter of time to reach 0.01$ unless something dramatically changes. And it can happen much faster than we would assume it's possible.


Of course, anything can happen anytime, the trend can revers and we can see a new ATH by the end of this month. But it's not granted. Nothing is.

Well, Mt.Gox managed to make some 500k BTC disappear without a trace and some others also ran on that race, scoring 10k-50k here and there...


You forgot to go all-in with a short during the freefall from 380$, I see.

I will agree as soon as price hits 275$ again.

Diarrheal dumping resumed? This could turn into an ugly bloodbath if allowed to continue for too long.
I do have a short position opened but it would still make me sad to see <300$ again.


Yeah, Bitfinex is interesting. There is almost zero activity during the boring hours and then relatively huge volume spikes appear along with tall price candles. There is probably some legit activity generated by stop orders and some margin calls (which is perfectly normal to fall outside of the public orderbook and happen almost instantly) but it could be easily mixed with some high frequency bot activity (something must jumpstart and stimulate the legit internal frenzy).

Nope... but now I did.


Where does chartbuddy gets his data from? The explanation link is dead.

Well, if it doesn't jump then it probably will slowly but constantly go down. Constant slow growth just isn't possible here.

To be honest, I think this whole 21M thing and even more so the utilization of the decimal fractions make absolutely no f¤ked sense for something like Bitcoin. This is just retarded in my opinion. A stupid mind trick fling and/or superstition service which sacrifices logic and ease of use. Not an optimal, not logical, not convenient, not nice.

If I were the one to set up a maximum number for the coin supply, my first candidate would have been the highest possible number granted by the size of the underlaying integer or floating point variable but I would have revised it to an y=10^x (where x is a convenient whole number, something close to 20).

Even if I make myself not caring about the 21 thing, but... decimal fractions?
DECIMAL FRACTIONS?

REALLY???
REALLY?

Makes no f¤cked sense. No no no... It's just wrong. Illogic and inconvenient = suboptimal ~ stupid.

The market has been way too boring in the last few days indeed. The volume is drying up and every charts including the magic indicators are getting really close to flat / neutral.
So, I agree it must break out into one direction or the other soon. However, I am far from certain of that direction. It should go up for several reasons but that means it probably won't.

Because those are more rare and add up for significantly less volume over time than the reds?





Yesterday I changed from short to long position because of that (various indicators, not just 3d macd) and then the heavy dumping started. I lost a little more than what I gained during the last two weeks by making some very conservative trades (I held onto the position during the first mini-flashrash but I got out after the second dump, I didn't felt like waiting for the third, even though it didn't prove to be that big of a hit yet).

I am beginning to think the Bitcoin market in its current shape would be much better off without these relatively high volume zero-fee Chinase exchanges and their washtrades.
They are either clinically insane or do nothing else but bare manipulations in a way which forces the average price into a monotone downward trend (let alone that it might would be in a similar shape on it's own anyway, so it really doesn't need this).

I like to keep around a small screen and watch the raw(ish) data in my idle time to get an idea about the attitude while doing something else on the big screen. But I do take a look at the indicators as well (mostly MACD and StochRSI).

There are two ways to make those lines cross: a real trend reversal or a huge spike with big weight into the old direction, followed by a nice enough hot-correction with big enough weight. I guess this time it's the latter. I think the price should have bounced back to >=450$ by now if the attitude really changed. I don't think there was any good reason for a trend reversal anyway (other than the good old reason that BTC should be >>1000$ by now, so <1000$ is really cheap...).

I think it would suffice if the Huobi wall sat back for a while and someone started to panic about the recent exchange collapses (Mintpal, Bitcoin Trader -> this show is on again after Mt.Gox and it's followers ; or even start to dump the freshly stolen coins, in case there is any - left).

I will be happy if it consolidates around 390 instead of falling to 320.

We could always argue about the date it will stop, why it haven't stopped already, etc.
Those next 24 hours would always be about bubble speeches and manipulation theories.
Oh wait...

Wouldn't it be wiser to use your own wallet for this kind of withdrawal?
It's not the right time to trust in both exchanges that they do as they were told or can be questioned if they don't seem to. Mintpal can now easily direct his lying finger to Bittrex. And you must relay on what Bittrex says (you can probably trust them but you won't have direct proof).

I am not sure but I remember him saying something like he is the sole shareholder in his own company, so its up to him if he wants to do anything with Bitcoin.
Also note the possible positive effects of a true bidirectional BTC<->gold exchange (with option to get the gold physically delivered + also yet another fiat/BTC exchange but with some background...).

I think he has virtually everything to make a notable impact on Bitcoin and cut some nice profit on the run. Everything except the will (and the software implementation with it's extra staff).