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241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2014, 07:30:59 AM
img


I am bad with charting but I gave it a go:

242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2014, 06:54:18 PM

I am not sure but I think you can reserve the amount (so the pool won't run out before you finish spending as much as you planned to) but not the interest rate. The interest will dynamically change along the road depending on the swap "market" (who lends how much for what cost at any given point in time).

I experienced a dynamic interest rate increase when Bitfinex swaps went above 20k BTC, however that was "auto borrow" not a manually reserved swap (I have never tried to use that function but I think those swaps come from the exact same p2p pool, so should behave exactly the same).

No, some swap offers on Finex have fixed rates. It can be beneficial to reserve those if you intend to hold your position for a long time and/or if you expect a sudden increase in the demand for swaps.

Good to know, thanks.
243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2014, 06:34:31 PM
Looking at the numbers, I think this s--- is going to drop like a brick any minute. Don't get me wrong, we might even eclipse $400... but this is probably a profit taking opportunity.

Why?

(1) Look at Darkcoin -- it went up at an incredible pace on the dark markets being seized, but now it is down 10% -- perhaps the dark market issue response is over or overblown at this point;

(2) Dollar swaps are actually starting to fall (very slightly);

(3) Shorts are through the roof (but are not yet reflected in the market depth because you can reserve BTCs for a short without putting them into direct action).

In a nutshell, good on you if you called this jump and made some money, but I'd suggest taking profits now and looking for the next pivot point.

NOTE: This review does not account for mythical creatures like unicorns nor does it account for news on the ETF front.

NOTE #2: I also wouldn't suggest opening a short at this point, either. There's still a good chance you could get burnt big time.

Dark got pumped due to the darknet market news, now it will go back down because it was a pump.

Shorts through the roof != a reason to go down, if anything its a reason to go up as they get squeezed. (I dont buy the not reflected in the price statement as most people dont reserve BTC before selling them they just carry out the trade and autolend, the interest rates dont change that much so whats the point of reserving)


I am not sure but I think you can reserve the amount (so the pool won't run out before you finish spending as much as you planned to) but not the interest rate. The interest will dynamically change along the road depending on the swap "market" (who lends how much for what cost at any given point in time).

I experienced a dynamic interest rate increase when Bitfinex swaps went above 20k BTC, however that was "auto borrow" not a manually reserved swap (I have never tried to use that function but I think those swaps come from the exact same p2p pool, so should behave exactly the same).
244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2014, 11:24:08 AM
it must be that 50% discount if paid in btc on that country singer's album that is driving all this

and all the other discounts out there

Yes, I just bought 6e6 copies ... on leverage! Best trading opportunity of my life. Tongue
Seriously though, you can pump Bitcoins price up by ~30% and you can still profit from reselling the discounted copies for fiat with ~10% discount (if you can find buyers). Cheesy
245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2014, 06:10:58 AM
guess OP is dead or arrested.

Was him the guy from SR2?

Not just SR2 but both SilkRoads and not arrested but busy building SR3. Tongue
246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2014, 12:13:16 AM
What am I supposed to do?? Enter 20x leverage right here or wait for a dip??

Fucking christ

Not to be a dick or anything, but... if the question stresses you out like that, the answer is almost certainly "do not enter a factor 20 leveraged trade" (edit: completely independent of the direction of the trade)

Buzzkill.  Tongue

i dunno i think it is pretty clear that bitcoin wants to break the 200 MA on the 6 hour chart.  why not just do say 0.25 btc and go for it

worst case eat some rice and beans for dinner  for a couple days... best case.... hookers and blow

you got me, going 10x leverage now.  Grin

Short? Already?

BTW, I hate that I my predictions are often spot-on when I do not act on them:

I think the 4h MACD is useless now (at least in my interpretation, 0˙ tangent inflexions mean: "undecided"). But if you combine it with the 4h StochRSI indicator then you might discover the rumor of an upcoming mini rally. Cool

I think the ~30% margin is a sane limit for Bitcoin (Bitfinex, BTC-E). I wouldn't go any further than that even if they allowed me 1%.
247  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 09, 2014, 06:20:42 AM
Go darkcoin! My 0.097 DRK is taking off!
Where are some places that drk can be spent? I've seen ltc, doge, btc and even ultracoin being accepted around the place but still never seen darcoin accepted, what's driving this rise?
Hodl and you ll be able to buy a car with this ...

or a kilo of cocaine.

Haha... We (almost) always forget to compare crypto coins to something with true stable value like cocain instead of the usual silly fiat money or similarly over-manipulated gold. Good idea, actually. I always tried to estimate the true effective fiat inflation based on the street price of cocain. It does beat gold because there are no cocain ETFs and other future/forward contracts with naked short sales. Grin Manipulators would probably end up dead. Tongue
248  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 09, 2014, 05:30:44 AM
Testnet is going to be so much fun this time. If we stick with the shades of black for release names, I think the Instantx release will be a good time to unleash "Darkcoin Midnight"   Smiley

Darkcoin Eclipse, because eclipse means "Instant Dark"  Cool

i like that
+1
DARKCOIN ECLIPSE


+1
 Cool

That remind me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnYPqippKVw&list=PL86F4D497FD3CACCE&index=67 (Honest Trailers - Twilight 3: Eclipse)
249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2014, 02:12:53 AM
More likely, he got dumped.  Sad
Or he dumped us.  Smiley

Or he finished dumping his BTC.
The weekend dump and he both disappeared around the same time...?! Can't be a coincidence! It's critical manipulation! Grin

I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.
You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.
I'd say gambling is a little extreme, not to defend TA, but those Stock Bitcoin traders, they provide a valuable service.
When I started here I saw no value in TA, but I've come to appreciate it's just another tool to be used in conjunction with others.

What I don't like about TA is that I can always set the parameters in reasonable ranges until I get to see exactly what my emotional side wishes me to see.
Right now, the only change I need to administer is switching between 4h and 24h chart intervals depending if I want to open a short or a long position, or choose a different indicator if I wish to sit out this round.
250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2014, 01:03:25 AM
I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.
You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.

Still, you say trading = gabling even though you know this is not a game against the house (in which case the house could always win - let's forget about the optional 0.x% fee for now) but against a variety of other random players where random means they all have different skill set, mind set, raw intelligence, self control, emotional environment, etc, and ... DATA / INFORMATION (raw / derived):
- gambler traders have raw data: they look at the numbers and randomly decide to place an order
- mathematician traders grab even more raw data (they spend more time to look at more numbers) and derive(d) information (the output of different kind of mathematical analysis of that raw data)

The true gambler's information is the emotional reaction to the raw data. The true mathematician would hang itself before trading against the mathematical prediction regardless of the emotional predictions.
Though there is a wide overlap and most of the traders are somewhere between these two.

I think this is why mathematician traders can theoretically (again: THEORETICALLY) produce positive gain over a long period of time. They have more information. Gamblers keep randomly winning and loosing while mathematicians grab a little bit of their random swaps (just like the exchanges grab their fees).
251  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 11:48:42 PM
I miss Mintpal interface and their depth charts in bitcoins with a linear scale, not a logaritmic one Sad

I always hated Mintpal's web interface. Cryptsy's is OK. Bitfinex's is sort of like-able if you get used to it.
The same thing applies to their reliability. I never understood why anybody trusted Mintpal any better than Cryptsy. I have put less trust in them for the sole reason that they were younger. But make no mistake, I always hated Cryptsy (the exchange as a whole for their multiple shenanigans, starting form delayed deposits and random forced logouts, to magically disappearing account balances...). Bitfinex was honest with me so far. Too bad they don't allow margin trading on DRK. But that's because they don't have volume. Sounds like a chicken and egg problem.
252  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 11:19:32 PM

We've arrived at a standoff at 8 on Cryptsy.

5k worth of sellwall standing guard over the 8-9 range.

Seats please.

IMG


I feels like I should repeat this:

[...]peak prices during altcoin pumps can never surpass (significantly at meaningful volume) that of the earlier pump(s)[...]

If it happens, I think it will validate DarkCoin as a real crypto coin (not "just another P$D scam").
253  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 11:02:04 PM

One of the things that's significant about this development is that the fast transaction property is not nearly as reproducible as it is with other coins. That's because it is a function of the unique 2-tier infrastructure that Darkcoin has.

So you've now got 2 uniquely competitive features rolled into 1 coin - state of the art anonymity and ultra faster-than-Visa confirmation times.

Today I carried out 2 Visa transactions: 1 in a sports shop and 1 in a supermarket. Looking at Evan's video, I could have done about 4 Darksends in the time it took for my Visa POS to go through. This is something that I've been talking about for about a year on various forums - the fact that crypto is not suitable for POS applications because of its slow confirmation time. I thought that even "fast" cryptos like Jackpot Coin and World Coin were too slow because they were around 30 seconds.

InstantX on the other hand is a whole new ballgame. It has broken the Visa reference standard. Evan is right - we don't even know right now what applications this opens the door to, but it certainly starts a new chapter in the history of crypto as a whole.


Sorry to let you down Tokobro, but Evan did say it would be 20-30 seconds on main net. It's faster in the demo because it's on the test net environment.

That's why I said that InstantX will be amazing, yet so close to being perfect for poker, live merchant payments, etc.

It's still pretty fucking amazing, hats off to Evan and everyone involved. Can't wait to automatically throw % of my MN earnings towards them!

I guess it was as fast as it ever gets because it all happened on a local area network with ~0 network latency + almost infinite bandwith and a very limited number of masternodes.
I guess it's "somewhat" slower when you play on the world wide global network with ~250ms latencies (+ possibly limited bandwidth) and much more masternodes.
But I think we won't know the actual number until it's put into real time use. Anything is just an estimate based on the current utilized/assumed_to_be_free bandwidth and current average latency on the current main network.

With all those Amazon servers rented around the world I don't expect a big latency with the current network utilization.
254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 10:34:40 PM
Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.

I think the 4h MACD is useless now (at least in my interpretation, 0˙ tangent inflexions mean: "undecided"). But if you combine it with the 4h StochRSI indicator then you might discover the rumor of an upcoming mini rally. Cool
255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2014, 10:14:19 PM
If you can do any of these things you already have an edge in the game. Those that have an edge win.
That theory is not supported by the evidence.

Study after study shows that everybody who thinks they have an edge eventually, inexorably, loses it.

The edge is an illusion.

I know several people who have been "professional online poker players" for years. They sit at home all day, playing online poker at multiple virtual tables simultaneously (most commonly 3 wide screen displays with 6 tables each, only a few being inactive at a time) and they produce a nice monthly average return (comparable to a nice "middle class" job).

I was always horrible in poker (nobody understood why, since I am sort of "smart" and almost a "sociopath") but I am ~1000% up in crypto trading (ah well, at least up to this point, since I joined in last December, and only in BTC, not in fiat terms, so it's more like ~300% Cheesy).

This reminds me, I didn't try to play poker again after I learned my newbie lessons during my first weeks spent on altcoin markets.
256  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 09:29:19 PM
I have this sort of "rule of thumb" that peak prices during altcoin pumps can never surpass (significantly at meaningful volume) that of the earlier pump(s).
The reason is simple. The sad remnants (aka bagholders) of the earlier pump will be happy to dump with "only as low as ~10%" loss after they got used to the idea of loosing ~50%, so all hell breaks loose in that ~10% region which ignites a free fall.

I am excited to see a "this time is different" scenario playing out in front of my eyes, even though I can't force myself into buying now, so I am just watching.
257  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 08:21:58 PM
First Ever InstantX Demonstration

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBjUPj-TmFE&feature=youtu.be

Edit: Sorry for terrible audio quality, I need a new mic!

I don't understand where those 6 confirmations came from.
Your commentary suggest that you explicitly expected not less or more but exactly 6, even though there were no 6 new blocks, nor 6 masternodes, so this number seems to pop out of thin air.

6 block confirmation is considered to be a fully "confirmed" transaction. So if an exchange wants to allow deposits with instant transactions, they could set it to 6 and their systems will recognize it as confirmed. Alternatively, a vendor taking money by default will see 1 confirmation and know the money is safe (without the --instantxdepth parameter set).

I know that but you didn't explain this.
You present the instant tx as if it went through 6 confirmations while it clearly didn't (of any kind of confirmations with a set count of 6), so I find this a little confusing.
I guess this behavior exist for software compatibility reasons and/or to suffice human preconception about legacy confirmations, but this should be explained. All I see is a number which doesn't make any sense in this context.
258  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 08:09:49 PM
First Ever InstantX Demonstration

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBjUPj-TmFE&feature=youtu.be

Edit: Sorry for terrible audio quality, I need a new mic!

I don't understand where those 6 confirmations came from.
Your commentary suggest that you explicitly expected not less or more but exactly 6, even though there were no 6 new blocks mines, nor 6 active masternodes to sign this tx, so this number seems to pop out of thin air.
259  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 07:30:28 PM
I already have few hundreds on finex but there is no volume like cr@ptsy and I feel here like "the lone ranger"  Cheesy .


Would you dump into a "1k wall" on Bitfinex if I placed it @0.007?
But then I would be alone, so I shall ask you to promise in advance to buy it all back @0.08 a littles bits laters (before Cryptsy allows the depositors to dump it all). Tongue
260  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] Darkcoin | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW and Darksend | Instant TX on: November 08, 2014, 07:23:10 PM
Guys i would stay away from Cryptsy, dont get me wrong... but every time when something big happens to DRK cryptsy fail to finish job... on purpose? or its just coincidence ? .... 3 times in a row guys cannot deposit/withdraw DRK from cryptsy on panic buys

for example... sent 1 drk to finex, 10minutes later i was withdrawing btc to play some dice Smiley

for now, finex never failed to serve Smiley

But there is no meaningful BTC/DRK volume on Bitfinex. (I have BTC there and I am looking at the DRK orderbook.)
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