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3521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:57:30 PM



if you mark the last local top with a 3 you're implying the price is going down right?


We have already come down a little so I guess it depends where the minor wave ends  Wink

RS
646/52
637   
632   

623

614
609
600
SP

We have touched the top of a slightly narrowing bollinger band and come down

Would not surprise me if we go down to 614 -  I will be paying attention if we go towards/past the 609 fib/SMA20

I am bullish from a daily, and even ore so on a weekly/monthly point of view though, not so sure on lower timeframes

Low volume.




Thankfully I am on holiday, and I cannot be arsed to log in and dig out the older charts, or the updated ones... but you get the picture that was a solid range... if you would have day traded it, with a good strategy, it would have been profitable.

Anyways who cares tbh- as I say I am not a day trader with BTC, all I am interested in at the moment in the narrowing channel we are in.....
everything points to it going sideways until it does not- how is that for some intellectual honesty.

All I really care about is 0 or 1 - so maybe I sould duck out of this TA conversation tbh...  I am sure there are people far better than I to fight its corner or not.

I am going to go and have a large alcohol and something now.

Let me know when we break out

Peace

ps I have a ton of charts, and a ton of tables I often overload them with info- I have down trends plotted on the same chart along with up trends  I like to overlap timeframes and up trends and down trends and fib levels forks and their trigger lines, from different moves etc...and  all sorts - they are a bit of a mess to look at if you are not the person that made the charts, I do not post them like that- I clean them up/seperate them out so others can hopefully make sense of them... and it all depends on which timescales you look at the charts, hence the several different charts above I have the same chart but form july 1st-4th and the one from the 8th (I did post one with the fib levels on the 8th) not the matching one I see- knocking about - will dig it out when I get back from hols and update it (with the recent bars) ... and if I remember maybe post it along with  table and notes- it has the fork from the down trend on it too.. which makes quite interesting viewing -  Anyways I hardly post charts- or fib levels - I do not really like people to see them in case they decide to trade off them (I had an incident many years ago with a twat on a gold forum- what a plonker)

pps -Anyways- since Timmy D got his stash =  Sideways - until it is not...  at this stage I do not care which direction it breaks out- (I still think up, but down before a up would not surprise me too much either, and even if I did have a strong indication I would be reticent to post it here- I prefer to be as ambiguous as possible and if I do post a chart or levels to let people draw their on conclusions tied in with their own view, ainly becaue I am bullish, and I do not want anyone crying or moaning at me one way or the other)

ppps- Eitherway I may have to go and pee in the sea from excitment or something.

pppps- I need to get a life- this is simply not what one does on holiday.

3522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:46:45 PM
I am not talking religion- my mistake I was not preaching.

Good luck and much love to you all- not my bag thanks.

Peace.
3523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:39:37 PM
That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.


Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early. Wink

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.   Grin


A wise man once said "all that pizza is cold"

(please tell me someone gets that)

It's not all that glitters is gold. Wink

Not that I listen to Bob Marley much though. . .

Maybe you should --- more spirit in his words than in any religion on the face of this green and blue home of ours. imho
3524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:38:29 PM
The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"
Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well



I'm talking about Bitcoin land. I can't say anything about how they worked in other markets for you.
Funny gif btw.

As an indicator in BTC they work well to aid in decision making... did you notice that weeks ago BEFORE it happened I posted sp and rs levels , and note that I had been absent for almost half a year, but then I decided to post just as it stabalised and I noted that sp levels 609 was important as far as I saw it... and I would be paying attention if we went to it or past it, or bounced off it..we did, and I also posted fib levels 601 below it, 609 , 614, then 929- ans since I posted that (not a prediciton but tools I was using to see what is happening) we have bounced MAINLY literally inbewteen
614-629 - If I was one of those day traders/dumpers that you hate so much I could have had a field day past 3 weeks... really and that is the fact of it...  we have not gone lower that 601- and we have touched 629 and bounced off it in a very clear fashion...  if I was of the mind to swing trade and buy and sell at 614- 629 on leverage I could have had a field day -and I had a pretty good idea, this was going to be the case and that we were going to start to consolidate and swing between those ranges...  now if it is not good enough that I posted these levels BEFORE it happened then fine...  it is not as if I posted those levels AFTER it happened , which you seem in infer is the only way TA "works"  now, I am aware and very much expecting a break out , and soon one way or another- note I am not predicitng which way- but I do have a visualisation of how low we have probability to go , or how high- and from there if I so choose I can then dial that in with my risk assessment, and banking strategy and start to make desicions... if that was my bag- which it is not (I do not day trade,short or go margin BTC)  but if it were I would almost always come out better
by using TA to access probable, and that is a key word probable entry and exit points - only coupled with risk and banking strategy...
The alternative is to point and guess...gut feeling  which I know from testing over the years does not work too well.

That being said nothign works all of the time... at all, and some may say it does not give any edge at all- for me TA along with risk and banking strategy is tool to help make decisions and visualise the market, and make trading decisions without EMOTION especially when the market moves quickly.  

Also if you accept that many many traders use TA, and fib levels etc and many robots and algos too- then there is an edge to be had because there is a certain amount of the market that 100% DO use these tools in almost a self fulfilling prophecy- that if you are LESS greedy than te other using the same tools , there are consistent profits to be made.

Once again, this is not prediction- it is a tool, and used in the right manner- it is effective in my humble opinion.

Thanks TMcK was the man.  
 
3525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:14:32 PM
The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"
Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well

3526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 02:06:59 PM
That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.


Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early. Wink

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.   Grin


A wise man once said "all that pizza is cold"

(please tell me someone gets that)
3527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 01:53:29 PM
JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ...

Mother of all volatility squeezes.

Oh yeah that is happening indeed- and that is exciting as all heck.....I posted as much myself yesterday ..... pretty much  ATL on the volatility front ...
and it has got to give and soon.....  I just meant that until then.... I am just chewing cud- helps the nerves : )

Looking at the BB we have had the three pre rally bear run spikes, and we are at or near the ATL .... its gonna pop : )  

I posted my view on the TA with my charts/RS and SP levels,  weeks ago, almost as soon as we reached 623 and steadied out... we have bounced very nicely off the fibs , and not much has changed in my view apart from the ongoing sideways consolodation narrower and narrower range .... the longer it goes on for... the more I cannot look... (I can really but y'know)

Could this get any less volatile? nope... but it soon will do methinks  Wink  Cheesy Cheesy Nearly at an all time low... similar to before past rallies

 I wonder what this next spike in volatility is going to bring... last few rallies had three mini spikes in volatility during bear runs,  before going to near ATL in volatility , and then .....massive spike.  Hopefully we get a massive rally too
3528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 01:41:20 PM
wow JC and Mervyn. Can you just PM eachother? I'm not finding much benefit in this particular style of wall observation.

JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ... and until there is... (which will not be toooooooo loooooooooong prooooooomise)
may as well chew the cud.
3529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 01:33:29 PM
it will be very hard to invest a significant fortune in bitcoins without the government knowing it.

But it is amazingly easy to invest an insignificant fortune in bitcoin, and subsequently spend a significant one.
Yes, YOU were able to do that, thanks to the coins that you bought or mined dirt cheap, and the people who now are willing to pay 600$ each for them.  Will they be as successful as you?  Maybe, maybe not...

Quote
[ long false analogy with false analogies ]
Would you finally consider yourself, then, a free and dignified human being, well-served by the servants of the public, who merit your confidence?

Sigh.  Whom do you want me to trust instead -- Shrem, Kapelès, Ver, Brewster, Pierce, Silbert, Winklevum and Winklevee, ...?

Do you really believe that replacing dollars with bitcoins will get rid of thieves and thugs, and give dignity to human beings?  Think hard...



These people will understand it ....before you do it seems...


http://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/uncontacted-brazil






3530  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 12:15:13 PM
Fuck this I am off to self harm again.
3531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 12:09:24 PM
empowering gave me an idea for a new poll question:
How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a bitcoin nutter advocate?  Tongue

How many bitcoins would JorgeStolfi need to have in order to become a nutter = 0

There is such a good risk to reward profile with BTC, you have to be a nutter not to own one at least imo, even if you think as Hor-hey does that they are going to zero. Just going on the past few years performance.  Logically it makes sense.
3532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 12:00:06 PM
Quote from: Jorge_Stolfi
(3) Bitcoin's only intrinsic value is its utility as a method of payment.  Its value as an investment depends entirely on that utility.
No, this is not true. A significant portion of bitcoin value comes from its utility as a storage of value: an asset that is scarce, non-confiscatable, exceptionally carriable (cf. gold), pseudonymous, uncorrelated to any traditional asset, and more.
Those properties do not suffice to make an asset into a reliable store of value. (The last one is in fact a defect.)
Yes they do.
No they don't.  
Not this BS again.

1oz gold is 1oz gold is 1oz gold. Its value is not pegged to anything.

Also read "Rai stones" on wikipedia

For alt-coins, bitcoin is better than alt-coins because of its novelty. You may have 1000 bitcoin clones, but Bitcoin is always the FIRST successful cryptocurrency.
Sigh. JUST LOOK AT THE CHARTS.

The "power of the network" is important for a cryptocoin's utility as a currency. IF BITCOIN IS NOT GOING TO BE USED AS A CURRENCY its network is as good as dogecoin's, or as the UN Agency for Plutonian Development.  if the market price of an item is not derived from some utilitarian demand, and there is no agent that strives to keep it stable, it can drop drastically and unpredictably, even without any external cause.

Gold is a good example of that (Its price already dropped 30% from its all-time high last year, and nothing says that it could not drop another 50%), as is bitcoin (50%) and Rai stones (how much would you invest in one?).  

It does not matter that the item is scarce etc.  You cannot compute the value of gold five years from now, not even by an order of magnitude, from the amount that exists and its other properties. An item whose future value is unpredictable is a lousy store of value.

You love the word IF - when it suits you.

If the internet suddenly got taken out in a single event, or if the US was to get hit by an asteroid tomorrow... or IF Jorge suddenly had a change of heart and becomes the biggest Bitcoin spokesperson out there...  what about you make the same argument and play the logic out but this time... use
"IF BITCOIN IS GOING TO BE USED AS A FORM OF CURRENCY"  then what ? then what do you say to the power of the network?

 I need to book more flights for next week- but IF the country I am flying to suddenly gets hit by an asteroid - then the flights I have booked will be a complete waste of time.  Reductio ad absurdum
3533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:53:19 AM
and here it is: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140723_report_en.pdf

another apology from Mark and almost nothing new from representative....

what a great day!

We got Goxed one more time!


what are your thoughts? mine is that the price is going up Smiley

hahaha i just love BTC!

Ive read that and have also been following the situation on the IRC channel. The whole thing is such a corporate mess from the way the bankruptcy trustee was speaking it doesn't sound like there will be any real conclusion for at least another 6-12 months.

I avoid IRC like I avoid the plague- would you mind giving a summary if you have time ? thanks

Long story short (really short);

Nothing much has changed, still no mention of BTC as its dissapearance is under investigation.
Bankruptcy trustee still open to someone buying the company.
Recovery of loans from other subsidaries or parent companies (Tibbane, Bitcoin cafe, Mark himself) are being carried out.
Creditors filing which was set in November likely to be pushed back even further with another creditors meeting in November.

Oh Mark said sorry again...


Great - thanks : ) did Mark mention anything to do with coffees?
3534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:52:17 AM
Yeah fine... you go out dishing the " I hope x gets what they deserve" and try to spin that into some moral high ground... whatever helps you through the day...   I wish everyone including you, happiness and fulfillment and the capacity to evolve and grow (and become better versions of themselves) if that is what they need.. that is what I feel people , all people deserve- and hopefully when people have enough love and understanding in their lives, they can spread it around to those in need.... that is my wish for everyone on this forum and in general....

  The amount of people I see on here gleefully wishing people lose their shirts "to get what they deserve" or " to learn a lesson" or "because it will make you laugh so hard" etc etc  makes me want to vomit- it is twisted imo.

What a way to think/spend your time....

Wishing ill on other pople that you do not even know- just for the sake of it, or so you can feel clever... is really really low and dumb in my opinion and is for those who lack humanity.  ( and I hope that those people can become better versions of themselves- ie not be such cunts)


You have a kind heart if you truly wish everyone else good. I prefer not to wish anything for anyone, especially for someone I know very little of. That's because I think that my wishes have no dominion in this matter. Like I said, everyone will get what they deserve and that will happen no matter what I wished for them.

You are correct you or I have no control over what other people en masse end up getting.... the only thing you have control over are your thoughts and your intent and actions, and you can use those to better the world, or not, not just for other people, it is not purely unselfish, as at the end of the day the thoughts in your head are a mirror.

People do not always get what they deserve either - for example the 227,898 odd people that died in the 2004 tsunami as an easy example.

Anyways- have a good day - don't lose your shirt.
3535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:32:28 AM
and here it is: https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140723_report_en.pdf

another apology from Mark and almost nothing new from representative....

what a great day!

We got Goxed one more time!


what are your thoughts? mine is that the price is going up Smiley

hahaha i just love BTC!

Ive read that and have also been following the situation on the IRC channel. The whole thing is such a corporate mess from the way the bankruptcy trustee was speaking it doesn't sound like there will be any real conclusion for at least another 6-12 months.

I avoid IRC like I avoid the plague- would you mind giving a summary if you have time ? thanks
3536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:28:47 AM

Welcome to the Internet!


I hear you, but that is just an excuse people hide behind - fact is if people behave like that online- then there is something wrong with them "in the real world"  and I hope that they can get better soon, and find another path.



I agree with you, but I think many of the people that act like proper asshats online would never talk in similar fashion in the 'real world'. People get very self-aggrandizing and obnoxious when they're hiding behind a monitor.


Agreed.
 
Interesting read - http://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2014/feb/25/internet-trolls-are-also-real-life-trolls



3537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:18:01 AM

Welcome to the Internet!


I hear you, but that is just an excuse people hide behind - fact is if people behave like that online- then there is something wrong with them "in the real world"  and I hope that they can get better soon, and find another path.

3538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 11:04:34 AM
A peaceful and happy life, free from threat of violence and a long happy family filled and thoughtful life , filled with love and happiness?

or are you some sort of cunt?

oh and  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I think that it depends on how you live your life. If you live a virtuous life or you give in to your vices. The choice is for everyone to make for themselves, and the dignified thing to do is to accept the consequences of your choices.
Expecting unconditional well-being is for those, who lack the sense of responsibility.


Yeah fine... you go out dishing the " I hope x gets what they deserve" and try to spin that into some moral high ground... whatever helps you through the day...   I wish everyone including you, happiness and fulfillment and the capacity to evolve and grow (and become better versions of themselves) if that is what they need.. that is what I feel people , all people deserve- and hopefully when people have enough love and understanding in their lives, they can spread it around to those in need.... that is my wish for everyone on this forum and in general....

  The amount of people I see on here gleefully wishing people lose their shirts "to get what they deserve" or " to learn a lesson" or "because it will make you laugh so hard" etc etc  makes me want to vomit- it is twisted imo.

What a way to think/spend your time....

Wishing ill on other pople that you do not even know- just for the sake of it, or so you can feel clever... is really really low and dumb in my opinion and is for those who lack humanity.  ( and I hope that those people can become better versions of themselves- ie not be such cunts)


3539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 10:34:48 AM
Oh look who's dropped by to once again "save us from ourselves."  The broke, insufferable, non-bitcoin invested PumpkinHead. So much time dedicated to such a noble cause. We can't find enough words to thank you. So we won't even try. Cool

I don't want to save you, nor I have ever wanted to do so. I think that everyone will get what they deserve.

A peaceful and happy life, free from threat of violence and a long happy family filled and thoughtful life , filled with love and happiness?

or are you some sort of cunt?

oh and  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
3540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 23, 2014, 10:22:32 AM
The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

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