Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wandererfromthenorth]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

it will be very hard to invest a significant fortune in bitcoins without the government knowing it.

But it is amazingly easy to invest an insignificant fortune in bitcoin, and subsequently spend a significant one.

Yes, YOU were able to do that, thanks to the coins that you bought or mined dirt cheap, and the people who now are willing to pay 600$ each for them.  Will they be as successful as you?  Maybe, maybe not...

[ long false analogy with false analogies ]
Would you finally consider yourself, then, a free and dignified human being, well-served by the servants of the public, who merit your confidence?

Sigh.  Whom do you want me to trust instead -- Shrem, Kapelès, Ver, Brewster, Pierce, Silbert, Winklevum and Winklevee, ...?

Do you really believe that replacing dollars with bitcoins will get rid of thieves and thugs, and give dignity to human beings?  Think hard...

These people will understand it ....before you do it seems...


http://www.survivalinternational.org/tribes/uncontacted-brazil

[empowering]

wow JC and Mervyn. Can you just PM eachother? I'm not finding much benefit in this particular style of wall observation.

JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ... and until there is... (which will not be toooooooo loooooooooong prooooooomise)
may as well chew the cud.

[aminorex]

JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ...

Mother of all volatility squeezes.

[empowering]

JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ...

Mother of all volatility squeezes.

Oh yeah that is happening indeed- and that is exciting as all heck.....I posted as much myself yesterday ..... pretty much  ATL on the volatility front ...
and it has got to give and soon.....  I just meant that until then.... I am just chewing cud- helps the nerves : )

Looking at the BB we have had the three pre rally bear run spikes, and we are at or near the ATL .... its gonna pop : )  

I posted my view on the TA with my charts/RS and SP levels,  weeks ago, almost as soon as we reached 623 and steadied out... we have bounced very nicely off the fibs , and not much has changed in my view apart from the ongoing sideways consolodation narrower and narrower range .... the longer it goes on for... the more I cannot look... (I can really but y'know)

Could this get any less volatile? nope... but it soon will do methinks     Nearly at an all time low... similar to before past rallies

 I wonder what this next spike in volatility is going to bring... last few rallies had three mini spikes in volatility during bear runs,  before going to near ATL in volatility , and then .....massive spike.  Hopefully we get a massive rally too

[Searing]

JC ha ha ... there aint jack happening on the wall ...

Mother of all volatility squeezes.

Oh yeah that is happening indeed- and that is exciting as all heck.....I posted as much myself yesterday ..... pretty much  ATL on the volatility front ...
and it has got to give and soon.....  I just meant that until then.... I am just chewing cud- helps the nerves : )

I am praying to the entity called "EBAY" to announce PAYPAL acceptance should be available in the next few months....(dare to dream big)

Not sure what to 'sacrifice thou' ? token $1 usd bill? (the in's and out's of 'paganism' digs out 'voodoo for dummies book' hey used it on BFL got a refund!)

Searing 

[BitChick]

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early.

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early.

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.  

A wise man once said "all that pizza is cold"

(please tell me someone gets that)

[ShroomsKit]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

[ShroomsKit]

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early.

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.  

Welcome to my ignore list.

[empowering]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well

[Erdogan]

(3) Bitcoin's only intrinsic value is its utility as a method of payment.  Its value as an investment depends entirely on that utility.

No, this is not true. A significant portion of bitcoin value comes from its utility as a storage of value: an asset that is scarce, non-confiscatable, exceptionally carriable (cf. gold), pseudonymous, uncorrelated to any traditional asset, and more.

Those properties do not suffice to make an asset into a reliable store of value. (The last one is in fact a defect.)

Yes they do.

No they don't.  

Not this BS again.

1oz gold is 1oz gold is 1oz gold. Its value is not pegged to anything.

Also read "Rai stones" on wikipedia

For alt-coins, bitcoin is better than alt-coins because of its novelty. You may have 1000 bitcoin clones, but Bitcoin is always the FIRST successful cryptocurrency.

Sigh. JUST LOOK AT THE CHARTS.

The "power of the network" is important for a cryptocoin's utility as a currency. IF BITCOIN IS NOT GOING TO BE USED AS A CURRENCY its network is as good as dogecoin's, or as the UN Agency for Plutonian Development.  if the market price of an item is not derived from some utilitarian demand, and there is no agent that strives to keep it stable, it can drop drastically and unpredictably, even without any external cause.

Gold is a good example of that (Its price already dropped 30% from its all-time high last year, and nothing says that it could not drop another 50%), as is bitcoin (50%) and Rai stones (how much would you invest in one?).  

It does not matter that the item is scarce etc.  You cannot compute the value of gold five years from now, not even by an order of magnitude, from the amount that exists and its other properties. An item whose future value is unpredictable is a lousy store of value.

Gold can go up or down in value (as expressed in the inverse goods prices in gold)

Bitcoin can go up and down in value (as expressed in the inverse goods prices in bitcoin)

National fiat money can go down in value (as expressed in the inverse goods prices in that fiat money). They can not go up. I am sure someone will try again in the heat of a crisis, but the pain inflicted on businesses will stop them and reengage in inflation. Nobody cares about the savers and the pensioners.

USD is the same as a national currency, except that in usd there can be a longer period of deflation due to its international usage. Eventually, usd will also go down in value.

There is no stable form of money, and there can not ever be. Only a degree of stability can be obtained.

[ShroomsKit]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well

I'm talking about Bitcoin land. I can't say anything about how they worked in other markets for you.
Funny gif btw.

[BitChick]

That would be nice. But that's not the way of the world or life on it. Life's not fair and not everyone gets what they deserve.

I'm sorry if you think that life hasn't been fair to you. I see the world in a different spiritual perspective, where our karma reaches beyond our present lives.

Here's your opening, BitChick.  Finally, someone, if you count Pumpkinhead as someone, wants to talk about religion.

I guess I fell asleep too early.

Here is a verse for you all: Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be over righteous, neither be over wise-- why destroy yourself?  That is something to ponder.  I really like that verse.  Especially because I grew up in a somewhat legalistic environment and realized early on that perfection is impossible to attain.

Basically, most religions are about karma or doing good to earn something.  Fortunately, following Christ is not about that.  It is about realizing we can never be righteous on our own and letting Him change us from the inside out.

I will stop now though.  

A wise man once said "all that pizza is cold"

(please tell me someone gets that)

It's not all that glitters is gold.

Not that I listen to Bob Marley much though. . .

[Wandererfromthenorth]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

Absolutely not. I predicted (and others did the same) the confirmation of the trend reversal with the sudden jump from $450-$680 before it happened with almost perfect accuracy. Nothing hard really.
I did the same thing with the $340 bottom which was very predictable looking at these types of trend lines (but didn't post it here, I wasn't posting much back then):

this is my take:





As you can see the line that is at around 420 now has always been very strong support, the only time it went down it was in anticipation of terror from china, and a excellent opportunity to get the cheapest BTC possible before the trend reversal approaching.

Around April 17th we almost had a breakout but we didn't get past the superior trend line (548 back then), but volume was not big enough to signal a true breakout and there still were lots of uncertainties about China.



Situation in China seems better now, with exchanges considering offshore and what not, new recharge options, etc.
We could have had another flash crash one week ago before the deadline, but the catastophic shitstorm just didn't come.  
In order to go break the 420 inferior support line for any significant amount of time it would take a cataclysm of terrible news regarding china that at this point is simply not gonna happen.


And besides, people forget that big money from the west (remember bloomberg listing btc?) could easily replace china (which is gonna find loopholes to stay in the game anyway, if you think chinamen are just gonna say bye bye to bitcoin well think again).

[Wandererfromthenorth]

"They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed."
Why do you say that? What in the past 6 weeks was that unexpected?
All the past months showed that the BTC market is really predictable (at least for the major most profitables trades).

[ErisDiscordia]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well

It's funny because it's true!

[empowering]

The hell is wrong with these people with their graphs and lines that don't predict a damn thing. It is like those guys that predict the end of the world every year... when the world doesn't end instead of just saying they don't know what the hell they're talking about, they just beat the drum a little louder and suggest it will be the next year.

Listen, if you keep posting graphs that say there is going to be a breakout and there is no breakout or every time that you draw one you say the price will go up and it goes down (or vice versa) and you tend to be right only about 50% of the time... you prediction model ain't too good there slick. Maybe, just maybe, it's all bull---- akin to Tarot cards or them dot pictures that the psychiatrist asks you to interpret into a picture (Google appears to be telling me it is called a Roscharch test... I can neither confirm nor deny independently this fact, though, at this time).

Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man (2005) -- "Unbelievable bulls---!!"

Just because you can't use these tools or you never took the time to understand what they represent doesn't mean they don't work.

They don't work. As the last 6 weeks clearly showed. They only "work" when you look back and look for a pattern that confirms what you're looking for in the first place.

I disagree- has worked very nicely for me for the past 15 years or so- I will take that.

There is no such thing as prediction...

There is such a thing as tools to aid in decision making

I do not get what is so hard to understand tbh.

oh well

I'm talking about Bitcoin land. I can't say anything about how they worked in other markets for you.
Funny gif btw.

As an indicator in BTC they work well to aid in decision making... did you notice that weeks ago BEFORE it happened I posted sp and rs levels , and note that I had been absent for almost half a year, but then I decided to post just as it stabalised and I noted that sp levels 609 was important as far as I saw it... and I would be paying attention if we went to it or past it, or bounced off it..we did, and I also posted fib levels 601 below it, 609 , 614, then 929- ans since I posted that (not a prediciton but tools I was using to see what is happening) we have bounced MAINLY literally inbewteen
614-629 - If I was one of those day traders/dumpers that you hate so much I could have had a field day past 3 weeks... really and that is the fact of it...  we have not gone lower that 601- and we have touched 629 and bounced off it in a very clear fashion...  if I was of the mind to swing trade and buy and sell at 614- 629 on leverage I could have had a field day -and I had a pretty good idea, this was going to be the case and that we were going to start to consolidate and swing between those ranges...  now if it is not good enough that I posted these levels BEFORE it happened then fine...  it is not as if I posted those levels AFTER it happened , which you seem in infer is the only way TA "works"  now, I am aware and very much expecting a break out , and soon one way or another- note I am not predicitng which way- but I do have a visualisation of how low we have probability to go , or how high- and from there if I so choose I can then dial that in with my risk assessment, and banking strategy and start to make desicions... if that was my bag- which it is not (I do not day trade,short or go margin BTC)  but if it were I would almost always come out better
by using TA to access probable, and that is a key word probable entry and exit points - only coupled with risk and banking strategy...
The alternative is to point and guess...gut feeling  which I know from testing over the years does not work too well.

That being said nothign works all of the time... at all, and some may say it does not give any edge at all- for me TA along with risk and banking strategy is tool to help make decisions and visualise the market, and make trading decisions without EMOTION especially when the market moves quickly.  

Also if you accept that many many traders use TA, and fib levels etc and many robots and algos too- then there is an edge to be had because there is a certain amount of the market that 100% DO use these tools in almost a self fulfilling prophecy- that if you are LESS greedy than te other using the same tools , there are consistent profits to be made.

Once again, this is not prediction- it is a tool, and used in the right manner- it is effective in my humble opinion.

Thanks TMcK was the man.