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361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2017, 07:41:11 AM
Can bitcoin please double in a day like IOTA?

We did that already, in 2013. Look where that led us.

This is why I prefer correcting as we go.

That's true, BTFD.

Looks like we are due for a dip down to at least $10k soon.
362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2017, 07:30:01 AM
How do you short IOTA? This shit is getting stupid. At his rate it will overtake bitcoin in about a week.

I think it is only traded in Bitfinexed, but I would refrain to short anything crypto. I was seriously thinking about shorting IOTA when it first passed $1... Fortunately I didn't.

So much for a coin that doesn't even work... sigh.

I will repeat it again: Never, ever short anything crypto. (I am repeating it to never forget it myself).

Can bitcoin please double in a day like IOTA? Like $100k to $200k would be nice. Come on Wall Street. I start selling my coins when you pump us to $100k.
363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 06, 2017, 07:19:48 AM
How do you short IOTA? This shit is getting stupid. At this rate it will overtake bitcoin in about a week.
364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 02, 2017, 01:05:00 AM
jesus...I still feel like ass

I'm not drinking again till 20K

So later this week?
365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2017, 01:03:19 AM
QUESTION ==>

WHY DOES https://bitcoinwisdom.com/ NOT REMOVE DEAD TICKERS? :\

They obviously don't make any money from the site so they have abandoned it.
366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2017, 07:38:42 PM
BTFD
367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2017, 12:24:38 AM
You seem to be missing the awareness that you are coming across like a dicknose.

Some people just pay too much attention to some of the less relevant words, and not enough to higher purposes ideas. Getting offended by a few words is pointless. And usually people don't like to hear truths about themselves that they have not reached themselves and the details of which they have not processed yet. Smiley

Jesus, fuck off already. Ignored!
368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2017, 11:12:04 PM
At 43:06 of the video, does he say "the owner of bitcoin cash doesn't like it being called bcash"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJT2CbfHTpo&feature=youtu.be&t=43m06s
369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2017, 08:48:47 PM
Can someone check these numbers?

"The study states that in October alone, Bitcoin mining-related electricity consumption is estimated to have increased by 29.98 percent, and if it keeps increasing at this rate, Bitcoin mining will consume all the world's electricity by Feb. 2020."   Shocked Shocked

https://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2017/11/27/electricity-used-in-bitcoin-mining-surpasses-power-consumption-of-159-countries
You don't even need to check anything with sensationalist claims like that. Shit article by a shit author.

Light Pollution in the U.S. alone: 120 terawatt-hours/year

Bitcoin Network: 29.05 terrawatt-hours/year (Confirmation? Some articles cite 11 Twh/yr ?)

CERN Hadron Collider:  1.3 terrawatt-hours/year

Yeah, let's get the global light pollution levels solved first before we start considering Bitcoin energy consumption a problem...

Assuming a network at 10 Exahash/10,000 Petahash/10 Million Terahash/10 Billion GH/s and an average miner efficiency of .3 Watts per GH then I come up with 26.28 terrawatt-hours/year. That is about the efficiency of an Antminer S7 but the majority of miners are probably S9s or equivalent so that seems really high. .2 Watts per GH/s would still be high but closer to reality considering other power costs such as cooling. That would bring us down to 17.52 terrawatt-hours/year.

10,000,000,000 GH/s X .2 Watts/GH/s X 24hours X 365days = 17,520,000,000 KW/h or 17,520,000 MW/h or 17.52 TW/h

It's all based on your assumptions and of course the article didn't say what assumptions it used.

370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2017, 02:00:59 AM
Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?
They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?



Here is how I understand it:
Trade 1:
If the futures contract price is above the current BTC price (say future contract is $11000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
(1) Sell (short) the futures contract. $11000
(2) Buy actual BTC for a lower price than the futures contract settlement rate. $10000
(3) Wait until the futures contract settlement date to cash in the futures contract and sell the BTC you bought as part of this trade.

It's a risk free trade. No matter what happens, you have a $1000 USD profit minus trading fees and borrowing costs.
If BTC/USD drops to $9000, you will lose $1000 value on your BTC but your futures contract short will be worth $2000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD stays at $10000, your BTC is worth what you bought it for but your futures contract short is worth $1000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes to $11000 and the contract settlement rate is $11000, you make nothing on the contract but the BTC you bought for $10000 is worth $11000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes up to $12000, your BTC will be worth $2000 more than you bought if for but you will lose $1000 on the futures contract short so a net profit of $1000.

Trade 2:
If the futures contract price is below the current BTC price (say future contract is $9000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
Reverse trade 1 above.

So, the prices should stay in sync assuming enough people arbitrage. Of course, traders know arbitrage will happen so prices should stay in sync even without it. The futures price will be an indicator traders will use.

The interesting part of either scenario is the limited supply of coins for sale and to borrow for shorting and the nearly unlimited supply of fiat in the world. Could get interesting.


371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2017, 01:23:10 AM
Jesus... So many ignored posts in the last page... Bullish?
372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2017, 08:05:25 PM
Isn't good enough for the performance figure, if something claims is 30% better then anything else that exists it has to be independently verified, but is good enough that it is not a scam. Guy has no reason to risk his reputation for something like that.

Bitmain, Spondoolies, etc. sent out demo units that proved they were real with real specs. If Halong Mining won't do that, I'd consider that a deal-breaker red-flag.

Also, even if they have a working prototype, there is no guarantee that they deliver on time and within specs. They are funding the production run with the presale.
373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2017, 03:42:43 AM
Just a $500 drop, nothing to see here...
374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2017, 02:28:50 AM
BTG started trading on Bittrex a couple of hours ago and it is surging. Sure wish Coinmarketcap would get their shit together and add it to the first page. It is currently the number 5 coin by market cap.

I think the problem is CoinMarketCap doesn’t know how many are issued so can’t calculate the market cap.

That may be true but how could they not know that? The current block is known and it follows the exact same distribution as bitcoin. Seems like they would be able to figure it out since they figured out 1200+ shitcoins.
375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2017, 11:59:53 PM
BTG started trading on Bittrex a couple of hours ago and it is surging. Sure wish Coinmarketcap would get their shit together and add it to the first page. It is currently the number 5 coin by market cap.
376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2017, 11:13:34 PM
It's probably a good idea to read about futures to understand how they can affect the underlying commodity. If there is a price difference, people can make a profit by arbitrage. Who knows what the volume will be on CME or whether that volume will be enough to move the bitcoin price.

https://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash-and-carry-arbitrage.asp

Yes but this will still be people "buying" bitcoin without actually really having any coin, I don't like it

They have to buy or sell "actual" bitcoin for the arbitrage to work without risk exposure.

If the future says “$20,000” and the current price is “10,000”, people will fall over themselves to sell the future and buy real bitcoins.  And market participants are handicapped because they can only buy futures and not the underlying asset.

This is one of the few times in history where average speculators have a regulatory enforced edge on Wall Street.  But the level of whale games is only going to blow out from here.


You can bet someone will be making that arbitrage trade even if it's not the regulated Walls Street money. You can also bet that Wall Street will be pressuring regulators to let them play.
377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2017, 11:00:43 PM
It's probably a good idea to read about futures to understand how they can affect the underlying commodity. If there is a price difference, people can make a profit by arbitrage. Who knows what the volume will be on CME or whether that volume will be enough to move the bitcoin price.

https://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash-and-carry-arbitrage.asp

Yes but this will still be people "buying" bitcoin without actually really having any coin, I don't like it

They have to buy or sell "actual" bitcoin for the arbitrage to work without risk exposure.
378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2017, 10:46:46 PM
It's probably a good idea to read about futures to understand how they can affect the underlying commodity. If there is a price difference, people can make a profit by arbitrage. Who knows what the volume will be on CME or whether that volume will be enough to move the bitcoin price though.

https://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash-and-carry-arbitrage.asp
379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2017, 01:43:32 AM

Congratulations I'm sure.

In other news, I think I'm gonna try to dump bgold tomorrow. I think it might be shit and dying. Thoughts?

Don’t.  It’s too early.  The next time Bitcoin has huge drop at least some people will run to Bgold.  It will then start developing a following. I think we need to be patient and give it time.  I sold my Bcash too early and could have earned more.

Once Coinmarketcap gets the market cap correct (not sure what's taking so long), I think it will help. It is really the number 10 coin right now but it isn't showing up.
380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2017, 09:12:08 PM
So far this year since July bitcoin price has stayed within the channels of this pitchfork drawn on a log scale chart:

The trend lines suggest a mid-term top around $9000 followed by a correction back to $7500. Price could also correct back the the mid-line at $6500. Where it gets interesting is if price breaks through the top trend line. Also something to keep in mind is January tends to be a down month, so I am expecting a rally into middle of December then some profit taking

I cringe whenever someone talks about profit taking in regards to exchanging bitcoin for fiat. Bitcoin is not a stock. I don't know how people sleep at night with their money in fiat.
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