Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fragout]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

[bitserve]

Bitfinex allowed shorting and the Nov 2013 bubble started right after they opened.

Didn't know Bitfinex was operating or had any relevancy at that time. I thought it was mostly MtGox and Bitstamp and to some lesser extent BTC-e.

Anyway, Bitfinex is a BITCOIN exchange so it is in their best interest not to completely crash Bitcoin. Can't say the same about traditional brokers. That's why I don't really know what will be the impact of it.

[gentlemand]

I understood that they were USD settled.  As in zero BTC contact, unless one used it independently to hedge the futures.  Basically USD bets on the price of BTC, a good ol' derivative that can be used to control prices with unlimited paper.

Is there not a possibility that the 'real' Bitcoin market will simply ignore it and crack on?

It's a market that has sprung up and thrived without the wonders of Wall St, and it's also something that requires no accredited bollocks and can be settled and owned for real by real people 24/7 across the planet unlike their countless other playthings.

[JimboToronto]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

[windjc]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

Look. Basically although its cash settled, if you are a market maker for a short, you need to buy BTC as a hedge against that short you just made. The fact that SHORTS can only be sold after BTC is bought (theoretically they dont technically have to be in Cash settled, but they will be just the same) means that shorts create BUYS.  So this is bullish.

[TERA2]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

One person can have both an account on a bitcoin exchange and a futures exchange. When one exchange is higher than the other they buy one and sell the other.

Or a person with a bitcoin exchange account makes some kind of private deal with someone with an futures account.

I could probably find more by Googling about futures arbitrage.

[TERA2]

I dont think you can say more liquidity is negative just because there is shorting. When a stock goes from being listed on otc to being listed on nasdaq or nyse (where people can short), it is always positive.

[HairyMaclairy]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

One person can have both an account on a bitcoin exchange and a futures exchange. When one exchange is higher than the other they buy one and sell the other.

Or a person with a bitcoin exchange account makes some kind of private deal with someone with an futures account.

I could probably find more by Googling about futures arbitrage.

I don’t think JPM Morgan can trade on Gdax on its own account.

[TheJuice]

A wall at 9600. If that falls, not much left until the 10k wall of walls.

[explorer]

Bitfinex allowed shorting and the Nov 2013 bubble started right after they opened.

Didn't know Bitfinex was operating or had any relevancy at that time. I thought it was mostly MtGox and Bitstamp and to some lesser extent BTC-e.

Anyway, Bitfinex is a BITCOIN exchange so it is in their best interest not to completely crash Bitcoin. Can't say the same about traditional brokers. That's why I don't really know what will be the impact of it.

IIRC they settled on Bitstamp until they were big enough to leave the nest.  It was a weird sort of relationship.

[BitcoinBunny]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

I noticed.  

I pointed out that if the trend continues we've seen recently and even if Bitcoin only makes up 40% of the total crypto market then in one year's time => 1 BTC = $35.000.

Though if the influx REALLY were to carry on with $10 billion per day we've seen last 5 days.
=>
$4 Trillion total market cap
say $1.6 Trillion BTC market cap.
In one year say 17.5 million BTC.

$1.600.000.000.000 / 17.500.000 = $91.428 per BTC.

[TheJuice]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

The best part about this run up is it really seems to be US interest. No more china. No more korea. It is USA, and a lot of little (and big) guys it seems.

[gentlemand]

IIRC they settled on Bitstamp until they were big enough to leave the nest.  It was a weird sort of relationship.

Wasn't Bitcoinica the very first place you could play with leverage? Before my time so I've no idea what impact it had.

[TheJuice]

IIRC they settled on Bitstamp until they were big enough to leave the nest.  It was a weird sort of relationship.

Wasn't Bitcoinica the very first place you could play with leverage? Before my time so I've no idea what impact it had.

Yup. This was my first lesson in if you don't control your private keys they ain't your coins. Probably lost a good ~50 btc when the 16 year old (no joke) running it got hacked/ran away. I don't think it had that big of an influence of price.

[gentlemand]

Yup. This was my first lesson in if you don't control your private keys they ain't your coins. Probably lost a good ~50 btc when the 16 year old (no joke) running it got hacked/ran away. I don't think it had that big of an influence of price.

If you're feeling nostalgic you still give the same guy your private keys at Coinjar.

[TheJuice]

Yup. This was my first lesson in if you don't control your private keys they ain't your coins. Probably lost a good ~50 btc when the 16 year old (no joke) running it got hacked/ran away. I don't think it had that big of an influence of price.

If you're feeling nostalgic you still give the same guy your private keys at Coinjar.

Wow. Did know Zhou was still around.

[TheJuice]

A wall at 9600. If that falls, not much left until the 10k wall of walls.

9600 just fell boys. Get out the popcorn. We could hit 10k tonight.

[HairyMaclairy]

Gdax and BFx getting ready to test $9700.  This is moving too fast.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Gdax and BFx getting ready to test $9700.  This is moving too fast.

 

[yefi]

Actually more than 4m btc lost...today see this  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2460853.0

Chainalysis's high-end estimate was around 3.8M lost, assuming that Satoshi's 1M are also gone. As they haven't revealed their methodology, their estimate is an argument from authority.