VC firms take punts all the time. Some pay off, some don't. My question is what Coinbase needs $25M for? Comfy chairs?  They are probably using it to : a) Gain regulatory approval in all 50 states b) Invest in a Sales team(similar to Bitpay) to increase merchant adoption |
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Yes it is possible at this point. The dev has been pretty active on the forum but under a pseudonym, so not a big reputation backing it. Additionally the source code is closed at this point so no security audits are possible.
I'm not suggesting it is likely that it is a scam, but it is possible.
I'm surprised more people aren't being cautious or discussing this possibility. There have been lots of people warning over and over again about this. I don't think the developer is trying to scam, but the fact that the initial investment of 21 BTC is now valued at 3 million USD gives me a pause. If you are buying right now, you are paying a huge premium, while having almost the same risk. |
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Probably some news on the Russian TV/newspapers. It is good that we are distributed globally, as the US started to slow down China picked up and when China has some bad news the Russians are stepping.
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Anything else is getting into trading and should be left to advanced traders, or perhaps with a very small percentage just for fun.
I agree as long as, like you said, it is a very small percentage. I was actually trading during the crash with a very small %. I lost  but still it gave me the sweet comfort of the illusion of control. I trade with 2% of my holdings as well. Helps relieve the urge to buy/sell something. |
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Hello community. Recently I started mining highest value alt-coins with hashcowz. The pool can auto trade alt-coin to BTC for you. My question isn't about pools though, but about trade value. If I'm trading LTC for BTC and then BTC drops value, is my LTC worth more BTC?OR If I'm trading LTC for BTC and then BTC drops value, does LTC somewhat proportionally drop value?My introduction to the community: I started mining about 6 months ago. I did the BFL jally thing and went through all pyschological stages up to acceptance, lol. Now I'm trying to see what else there is besides simple mining and trying to get into trading with small initial funds and a few decent devices. I would also love to be able to reply in other sections mods/admins  The entire Altcoin market valuation is based on BTC valuation. However, at any time some coins go up and down with respect to BTC. So, if Bitcoin goes down Litecoin will go down as well, unless there is a huge buy interest in litecoin that compensates for it. |
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bitcoin and litecoin. most of others are doomed.
how high can litecoin go? Any chance they will ever be valued the same as bitcoins? LiteCoin can go higher, but I don't think it will be ever the same vaulation as bitcoin. (Due to network effect and the number of merchants who accept bitcoin). Also, don't put all your money into litecoin, spread it among - Bitcoin and a basket of crypto currencies. |
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Thanks for the feedback.
It appears that the initial investors invested 21 BTC into the project. (correct me if I am wrong)
The market cap for this coin, is right now = 3.3 Million. (12/8/2013)
It seems it is trading at a very high premium to the price the initial investors paid.
Eventhough I am like the new features, I am not sure if it is worth this huge premium.
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Peercoin seems like it overcomes the 51% problem bitcoin has, so is peercoin the longterm winner once mining ends?
I mean once all bitcoin have been mined out.. no reason for miners to keep all that hardware going, the NSA could take over the entire network and be in sole control of all transactions.
The reason Bitcoin has 90% percent of the market cap and other Alt Coins 10%, is due to network effect. For an AltCoin to take over Bitcoin, the innovation or advantage has to be so big to overcome the network effect. On the otherside of the coin, AltCoins are lower in price, so the possibility of higher reward is greater as well. |
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I agree with most of your post, but I think we are well into the early adopter phase, if not through it already -- actually this timing is what worries me the most.
I misspoke, the 'chasm' is between the early adopters and early majority, and given that, perhaps you are right-- I don't think so, I tend to think we are just crossing into the early adopter stage, only. That's how the infrastructure is getting rolled out for the 1 or 2 out of 100 to be able to use it. Even at early adopter stage, the usability must be pretty decent, and it's just now coming-of-age at the most basic levels. Even those are lacking-- the best example is the exchanges, and some merchant services-- still no remittances, micropayments, escrow, et al. While at early innovator stages, it was really only a very tiny subset that was able to fit the requirements for usage. If you subscribe to the ideas of 'Crossing the Chasm', then what might the chasm represent? Would it be the question of how does a regular Joe use bitcoin? I think that's a reasonable place holder, and one for which Bitoin still has a long way to go. Remember, early adopters are some 13% of the market. There is no way we have made large inroads to that group. We are probably still well under 1% adoption, though the media is covering this realm. The chasm with regard to the population of early adopter bitcoin speculators and early majority bitcoin speculators, as I understand your terms, was the period in 2011 when the trustworthiness and utility of bitcoin exchanges was very much in doubt. During the early adoption period exchanges were non existent or not somewhere that I felt really safe storing coins. According, I put June 2011 at the trough of the chasm for adopting bitcoin speculators. The chasm with regard to the underlying economy may be upon us. As informed speculators we can envision the replacement of legacy financial infrastructure with bitcoin. I see very impressive transaction volume reported by coinometrics. I honestly don't know how one can argue that we are anywhere further along the adoption curve than the first signs of the early adopter phase. Before I go further, I should really make clear that I am referencing the Roberts Adoption/Innovation Curve with its 5 constituencies as follows: ** Early Innovators (2.5%), ** Early Adopters (13.5%), ** Early Majority (34%) ** Late Majority (34%) ** Laggards (16%) There are some larger sums of money getting moved with Bitcoin, and while most of that is speculation (still valid movement), the number of actual people who are using the protocol or currency is bordering on miniscule. I suggest you consider how far down the rabbit hole, and out of main stream, this conversation is being had. I think that the type of person that comes to Bitcoin *this* early might tend to understand concepts and abstraction more readily and deeply than the average person. There is no precedent to Bitcoin, the math is *scary*, it's new, requires a good deal of thinking to grasp, overthrows/improves the status quo, etc. The idea that Bitcoin has more than 1 out 10 people in *any* group (cryptocurrency experts aside) utilizing its benefits is patently false. The infrastructure is not even available to use it for but a small fraction of its potential. My guess it that given the media uptick, it seems like Bitcoin is everywhere. Perhaps confirmation bias is at play? Certainly the facts seem to indicate that only about 500,000 private keys with over 0.1 BTC exist, and there are about 150k users on Bitcointalk. While it may happen very fast, Bitcoin adoption still has a long way to ubiquity. Facebook has around 1 Billion users. Given that there are people with dozens of accounts and kids, teenagers on facebook. I would say anywhere from 100 Million to 50 Million are financially sophisticated enough to be the market for Bitcoin. The current user base estimated from various threads on this forum is around 1 Million for Bitcoin. So, I would put that around 1 to 2% of the entire market, which is the Early innovators stage. However, in an alternate scenario, where Bitcoin does not fully mature to it's potential it dominates a few niches like international remitances, offshore asset protection, grey market etc... but does not take hold as a payment network (due to complexity, technology risk, govt regulation etc...) In that case we can estimate the total market to be 10 Million users. In which case we would be around 10%, which is the early adopters stage. In either scenario, irrespective of what happens to the price right now. The final peak price is at least 1 to 3 years away at around 50% user adoption. (At what might be a valuation of 10 to 100x current price). |
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While I am not a trader. Most Alt Coins depend on Bitcoin for their valuation and rise and fall with BTC. So, if you leave your money in AltCoins you will still be exposed to BTC movements.
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Is't this old news, haven't they stopped accepting it after the latest ruling.
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Closed minds might end up rejecting it, without giving it a good try.
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Perhaps, add it to Reddit as well.
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Bitcoins have various uses. An arbitrage argument implies that the values derived from all uses equalize. One use is as a circulating currency. In that use, the value is described by PQ=MV. In this case, M can be taken as the fraction of the bitcoin which is in use as a circulating currency. In that application V is approximately 6, which is consistent with fiat economies and the current blockchain turn-over. Gresham's law dictates that bitcoin are hoarded in preference to fiat. My best first estimate of M therefore is 10% of supply. Let's be conservative in valuation and lazy in math, and allow it to be 1/6 to balance V. PQ is the volume of goods and services transacted times the price at which they are transacted, using bitcoin. On this basis, the market cap of bitcoin should be approximately equal to the bitcoin annual GDP. As a best-effort first guess, I would call it, say, France, about 2.6 tln USD2013. For a semi-durable bound, we take the all-uses bitcoin supply at 18mn. Thus, 1 mBTC = $15.
The parameters of the model are up for debate, but the model itself is inescapable.
Nice argument. |
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It is both a currency and store of value.
If you run through the numbers of calculating
a) Bitcoin's market cap provided it captures 10% of internet transactions
b) Bitcoin's market cap provided it captures 10% of gold market cap.
You will find that valuation for B) is about 10 times greater than A).
According to my calculations Item B), 10% of gold would put it around 30,000$.
That is the potential, but you need to figure in the risk as well.
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I would put C-/D , as the most probable scenario. Given the technology and goverment regulatory risks.
i.e.,
a) Bitcoin handles the same volume as Paypal, but both have different areas of application
b) Bitcoin is a major player in international remittances , Western Union and Money gram are wounded but still limp along as the lower end customer base still use them.
c) As a store of value Bitcoin captures 10% of the market share of gold.
Why just 10% of gold and not 100%.
a) After 15 years, online sales are just 10% of retail sales
b) There will be some medium to small size govt that will ban bitcoin.
c) The greater the market cap of Bitcoin, more incentive for creation and propagation of viruses, botnetworks etc...
d) Inflation from Altcoin's in the future.
That still puts it at at around 30k per coin.
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So... sell at US$1K until April?
No... you...
The target price for December is somewhere around $420 (if I can see clearly from the chart) So, the price of $1100 is 2.6X trend. Which is in orange territory(not red yet). Maybe sell a small portion if needed, I do not recommend selling all as the trend catch up pretty quickly at 20% a month. |
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What do you mean
There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic. Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway. I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you. Cool! I have a website registered on my name, but the blog format imho is not as good as a forum. I will perhaps still put it online in comments-disabled mode where I (my editor) polish the threads/articles from this forum in the easily digestible mode. I mean, this forum is very organic food but therefore contains also joints, sinews, bones and whatnot. In addition is my thinktank group, which has several interested people but is not organized yet. Also my supernode has been disabled since May, but when that comes back online, oh boy  Can you provide further details as to what this think tank is and its purpose. |
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