you know, when people are out on the streets happily roaming about wearing sunglasses and flipflops because the sky is blue, it can be hard to imagine rainfall and cold air.

EDIT: I read a lot of "I'm all in", "finally bought back today" comments here. That makes me think we could well have a sizable correction this weekend.

On the other hand: mass-media hype has just started. There's a huge delay for "normal folk" to "get in". Could have more legs, too.

Maybe both.

I read people like Dent and some of Armstrong, but I really classify all of their opinions on the same level as Jim Cramer and prefer not to cloud my judgement with them.  I prefer to just look at the facts and see what I can derive from it myself.  My "holistic" understanding of it all is:

The first inalienable fact is, governments fear deflation above all else.  This trumps whatever any of these commentators say.  The second fact is, they all want their own golden parachutes, and most are not actually keen on destroying all world financial markets on purpose and returning to the dark ages.  They fear for their own safety in the process of such events, and they don't want to destroy all their own wealth at the same time and be forced to live in the woods somewhere.  They also value the power and monopolies they have.  This means if they're allowing some huge sector of world markets to implode via their permission in this rigged game, they're also attempting to create or prop up another market as a backdoor somewhere else, and it's not going to be an illiquid market like land in Paraguay.

They know that currency backed by metals are completely useless and always fail.  The only way metals are useful is if the native coins are circulated in the economy.  It's not actually possible for this to happen unless civilization devolves back to the dark ages because metals have awful granularity and high friction in use.  They've already failed as currency in modern society many times due to this.  Any involvement by TPTB in metals would simply be a greater fools pump.

We already know lots of debts are going to be defaulted on in literally every market.  Since the monetary system is fractional reserve, based on using debt as money, this is about the most dangerous thing possible because it causes the money supply to shrink to nothingness in a liquidity crunch.  Once this occurs, you end up with hyper-gresham's law.  You can end up with the majority of digital fiat just vaporizing here, while the remaining stuff probably wouldn't be trusted anyway.  A huge premium would occur on paper and coins.  The premium on physical paper and coins would then cause gold and silver coins to increase.  At this point you enter into a fork in the road, you either go back to the dark ages and metals continue to increase, or society doesn't implode and metals just turns into a temporary greater fool pump.  So metals will be useful for making money somewhere along the line, just not useful in general.

At this point you're in a deflationary collapse, and people love to claim that you will lose money by being in "commodities" during deflation, but the "commodity" of paper money, gold, and Bitcoin will be some of the only things useful at this point.  If you wanted to be a carpet bagger, it would be difficult to do things like buy a dirt cheap house using paper money, because it's spike in value would just be brief before the government attempts to corral the flock into a new currency unit or print more, so people would only take it out of necessity.  The gains from Bitcoin would likely completely dwarf that of gold, and Bitcoiners will probably be the new Russian oligarchs unless the entire world did collapse back to dark ages.

So what is the government going to be doing during all this?  They want to prop the debt fueled markets up (stocks) using NIRP and threat of inflation.  But both are just social engineering tactics that can be bypassed by any smart person.  You can't force people into a choice between NIRP and stocks.  There will always be some way out, so NIRP will fail to prop markets up.  As markets collapse, the deflationary collapse starts, and Bernanke's real world example of "helicopter money" is unfunded tax cuts.  Like that would do anything to stop such an event.  Central banker manipulation would have zero effect without implementing a socialistic, monthly "free wage" to everyone, which would just cause flight of real wealth and capital to other places and/or hyperinflation.

In the end, it is almost irrelevent differentiating between an outcome of deflationary collapse and hyperinflation.  All that really matters is the cogs stop turning.  You will have to flee to another country that uses the closest thing to "honest money" possible or risk sitting around in a perpetual, unproductive ghetto for a decade or so.

Out of curiosity (and w/o asking you to disclose your strategy or signals in detail), are you going to declare and use profit targets, or are you planning to play this as a purely signal-based entry/exit method?

Also: looking forward to following this thread.

How about.....


....Fuck off?

 

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