List mining as either "Accounting Services" or "Database Services". This is on the premise that what mining does is maintain the Bitcoin account books (the block chain). Mining rewards are merely a data entry in the account book. It becomes income for tax purposes when you get local currency or some other barter value out of your data entry. The IRS calls this "constructive receipt". Compared to an independent accountant who does work for other people, maintaining paper accounts or a spreadsheet and making entries for his own time are not income yet. It becomes income when he gets a payment from someone that he can go spend elsewhere.
Like any business, you can deduct expenses for hardware, software, networking, and utilities.
That is certainly a novel approach, and I think I like it. I'll probably have to consider the justifications a little more seriously, but that's definitely an interesting way to approach it. Thanks for the suggestion  |
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You're really looking at a 3 block window and claiming ASICs? Really?
It's not a 3 block window. At first, I was a bit confused -- I thought "of course the estimate is off, the difficulty just reset" but it DIDN'T JUST RESET -- we just had a block halving. A block reward halving shouldn't affect the calculation of block/hour and so forth. Right? Yes you are correct. This thread is spooky, with me agreeing with you so much. |
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It's winter. That means we have to use heat. So, rather than running the electric base-board heaters, I'll run my BTC miner. Even if it breaks even, it's still better than having to pay for heat.
If you are unfortunate to have electric heat I guess that is true. For those of us with natural gas heaters, using miners as heat would cost more. I just did a calculation based on current price of $12.31 Mining profitability (my rigs) per day: $5.29 Cost of whole house per day electricity (most recent bill): $4.86 Cost of mining rigs (which help to heat now): $3.44 So it appears bitcoin would still pay my electric bill plus about $10/mo and reduce my gas bill somewhat. Not enough to keep $1200 worth of GPUs unsold. I'll give the coin price a few days to rise. If it doesn't, shutting down. In reality, with ASICs right around the corner, its either shut down today or what, shutdown in a month or so? I don't know what size house you have, or mining rig you have (probably large and small respectively), but you're looking at it the wrong way. You have a 24/7 heater running, all electrical use in your house is paid, and it is also making you $13/mo towards any additional heating you're running. Not saying you shouldn't shut down, but it's not just paying itself +10 bucks towards your gas bill. |
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You're a blast from the past man, same old stuff too.
However in this case I'm actually kinda on board with your notions. We're a number of hours ahead of schedule for block halving, and this is a big spike.
However I'm gonna remain calm, and suggest that's just the way the cookie has crumbled. blockchain.info (I know it only guesses at block origins) shows an unusual number of quick blocks, 21009 was found in 2 minutes by BTC guild, 21010 was found in 3 minutes after that by BTC guild (the pools hashrate has remained fairly constant). The unknowns have increased but that could be attributable to people wanting in on the last 50 blocks going solo.
So for now, I'm just gonna say variance.
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Ah, shit happens. You can't blame Dave or Tom. I can't imagine either of them isn't working their arse off to make things work and they probably haven't gotten much sleep lately. Regardless of who your hoping to get your ASIC through, we're looking at brand new tech and there's bound to be bumps. And for all the dinks ready to jump in with the "I told you ASIC was a Scam!" This is for you... Seriously, there's no way all these different vendors, some of which dislike each other a great deal, are in on some massive "Let's screw with people's with some vaporware!" plot. We'll get there, it's just gonna take some time. Very well put Meatball  I feel for ALL who are delayed,not just BFL  Yeah,all the ASIC companies are trying to delay the release of said products,WTF   Talk about conspiracy theories,I bet they would believe 9/11 was done by BoA,because the mortgage was due on the World Trade Center  9/11 was done by BoA (Bunch of Assholes) |
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I was going to do an update for the new bASIC specs, but then I read that they won't be shipped with PSUs, which I'll need to include in the ROI costs. What sort of wattage would the average buyer use - how many are buying multiples? Or should I just assume a 200W PSU is being used for one bASIC?
Also, I know how much PSUs cost where I live and I have no idea which places are preferable for purchasing such products. So if someone has an idea how much people in the US pay for say a 200W PSU, it would save me some google time.
newegg(.com) is the go-to computer hardware store for most of the US and Canada. Bastards just have to be located in California too, so I'm the only one that gets charged tax (well and 34million others but they don't count). 200W PSUs tend to be notoriously cost ineffecient (I wouldn't trust most of the sub $30 offerings with my enemies computer components) though. I think the Antec EarthWatts 380D is probably one of the better low cost solutions out there (~$45 for 32A combined on 12V rails), though I will admit I've never really looked that hard for low power items. EDIT: also a sweet seasonic 300W on sale for $39.99, 80% Bronze and all that. |
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I don't really see how the prime investor running off with Shareholder information could not derail their plans, but I'm pretty confused every time I try to read their overly long and winding, un-summarized threads, so I could be way off.
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Guys, I never proposed this to save money - I was thinking about the flexibility and the "cool-factor".
Not sure if you earn points with the "cool-factor" by mobile mining. Interesting yes, cool no. Now cool factor would be mobile mining that results in greater number of coins produce then can be done standing still. Everyone here would be all over you and saying cool even though it is not realistic, or is it Mr. flux capacitor. Step 1. Get on next trip to ISS (international space station) Step 2. Hook up miners to take advantage of free solar power! Step 3. Mine while taking advantage of time-dilation. Step 4. Profit (no question marks needed).  The time dialation would actually reduce mining performance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_dilation#Time_dilation_and_space_flightIncorrect. You are thinking of a body in relative acceleration to the point of reference. AFAIK the ISS is in stationary orbit WRT the earth. I am referring to Gravitational Time Dilation, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_time_dilation . |
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Avalon must be doing a merry jig today.
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Guys, I never proposed this to save money - I was thinking about the flexibility and the "cool-factor".
Not sure if you earn points with the "cool-factor" by mobile mining. Interesting yes, cool no. Now cool factor would be mobile mining that results in greater number of coins produce then can be done standing still. Everyone here would be all over you and saying cool even though it is not realistic, or is it Mr. flux capacitor. Step 1. Get on next trip to ISS (international space station) Step 2. Hook up miners to take advantage of free solar power! Step 3. Mine while taking advantage of time-dilation. Step 4. Profit (no question marks needed). doesn't it cost $10k to lift a pound into space? you're down $10k for the BFL alone Well he just asked for cool factor. Doesn't get much cooler than space-travel and time-dilation for increasing number of coins produced imho. Admittedly time to recoup your costs will be high. |
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BFL's reputation really does not matter , we already buy, and those who didn't, they would not do anyway until our orders were shipped.
They already had a bad reputation for FPGA delays and didn't mind
Request your money back by mistrust seems absurd, if you don't trust in they delivery your order, why would you trust they send you money back?
We just have to be patient
Not really true, reputation of course matters. Both for retaining customers (as a US based business they don't get to just "not refund" with no consequences, even if it might be onerous to follow up on), and gaining new orders, to whit: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a-2.html#There is someone who claims to be buying MORE BFL products after announcement of delays, because they were at least telling them something. Reputation is definitely worth something. |
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If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago. They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.
I am really sorry about BFL. I suggest all of us to send them some money so they can cover their loss and make some money on top? Or just to speed the proses up? We all know that long term winners are ASIC producers themselves. Right? If i were one of you guy's who preordered almost half an year ago i will feel like i am badly F....D UP. The winners eventually will be the lucky ones from us which happen to have ASIC's delivered first. Actually i am starting to doubt about this also. hardware manufacturers always win, forcing you to buy a new firmware, new improvements, new product generation. BFL double wins, can earn by selling hardware and using it for mining. With your money making machine to make money. And for the year, they will force you to bought the second generation. This is a good business All this is hypothetical because there is no guarantee that they will succeed. Nobody is forcing you. I do not agree with it. It is a decision made by us. But is about time for the community to give them what they deserve. I mean that everybody shall ask for refund that is what they deserve. And if they have invested any money in chips which is doubtful also They will get bankruptcy! Bankruptcy isn't the "ha-ha" you might think it is. I'm no lawyer, but AFAIK since BFL is an incorporated entity, bankruptcy would fall only on the business. Any salaries to employees/owners, big bonuses for CEO/CTO/CFO/etc. to the tune of whatever they want, and other "operating expenses" reducing their operating capital would be untouched, and by filing Chapter 7, they are not required to repay the full debt owed (meaning everyone gets screwed to a greater or lesser extent). Additionally if they really have VC funding as they said they did, usually a company draws up contracts specifically stating that those folks get "first dibs" on asset liquidation, further reducing what customers would receive. I'm just sayin' |
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Guys, I never proposed this to save money - I was thinking about the flexibility and the "cool-factor".
Not sure if you earn points with the "cool-factor" by mobile mining. Interesting yes, cool no. Now cool factor would be mobile mining that results in greater number of coins produce then can be done standing still. Everyone here would be all over you and saying cool even though it is not realistic, or is it Mr. flux capacitor. Step 1. Get on next trip to ISS (international space station) Step 2. Hook up miners to take advantage of free solar power! Step 3. Mine while taking advantage of time-dilation. Step 4. Profit (no question marks needed). |
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GPUs will be getting turned off in large droves, however FPGAs can be expected to remain on until ASICs hit, due to their negligible run cost. If you know the FPGA/GPU ratio, you can make a reasonable stab at what the hashrate will be after halving.
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Ask bitcoin miner for the hashrate since last diff change, ask bitcoin miner for the hashrate in last 120 blocks, tell me how many block since diff change, and I will calculate what will be the next diff if hashrate remains the same until 2016 blocks. This are math, not a votation to choose the next diff . Regards Since hashrate is guaranteed to not remain constant for the next 1818 blocks (remaining in this round), that's not a helpful offer. And people are voting not to choose, but what they are speculating it will be, based on the information they have at hand. |
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Glad you appreciate the feedback, I understand completely on the mining forecast parameters, I just wanted to check since you used a brand name instead of a generic term for the variable. I have been forecasting about 3x the difficulty at the end of 2013 that you have right now, but that is pretty close given the limited data we have to work from.
I see that the first few fields have been updated to not allow changes, I like the approach of graying them out.
Could you add a rounding function to the report output on the "your rate" field down to 4-5 decimals max? I really don't need this much precision, and it messes up the formatting. (sample: 0.27630000000000005 (0.86%) I have no idea where the 5 at the end came from, my values are .0003 and .276 at this stage.) I also think that making this into 2 fields (TH, %) would be cleaner and allow easier import into Excel, etc.
An "Earn/Day" number would be nice in addition to the balance, I can do the math, but it's nice to have a direct comparison to other calculators.
Difficulty is still capping out at ~2Bn, not sure if you have tackled that yet.
Another item you might want to consider would be a streamlined input panel for the addition of hardware. Adding multi-line table with a calendar picker and drop downs or something would make it more usable for the non-geek bitcoin finance type guy.
I'm PM-ing you my current long term script, but I'd rather not publish the whole thing.
Hmm wow. I checked his forecast Difficulty re-target: 108013368 (2013-12-23 13:26:14) So you're predicting a difficulty of 108,013,368 x3; or ~300Million by the end of 2013? Or something along the lines of 2400THash? Holy smokes. At the current Pricing of ~$15/GHash that would be $36.6Million in hardware, or 1/3 the total bitcoin econ. I'm curious what makes you expect that. |
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Edit: not sure why I originally read 5000kwh, must have been late. 5kwh is easy (even per day), basically no power at all. Can do that without using much of a fraction of your roof. You certainly don't need 1500 cells to do that.
Sorry for the clarification, but the 1500 panels would be good for about 5kw, and living in Southern Maine, I'd get about 4-5 hours of peak sunlight per day. I'd be willing to call it ~20kwh per day. I've had sub 2 thousand watts orders of panels delivered to my house for under $1/watt, anybody who thinks they are going to build them cheaper than that is insane. You can get solar laminates for $.64/watt right now and I've seen $.50/w in the past, which supposedly can be used without a frame. Or frame them, and still come out ahead of DIY panels
And where are you ordering these? Please, do share. Ah, you meant kW, your post originally said kWh, leading me down a rabbit hole. Well fair enough, assuming you have sufficient space for all these panels, 5kW seems reasonable. Most solar maps list maine at 3 - 3.5 hours though (yearly average). |
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This forum needs to adopt a strict policy of closing these threads as duplicates, I'm quite tired of re-reading this same BS every day from a new person (or, more likely, the sockpuppet of one of the previous people).
You're not having an original thought, no one needs to have this discussion again, there is no new information to add to the conversation. Search before you post.
To paraphrase Meatball, no one put a gun to your head and made you read this thread. The title was pretty clear in what the content would be, you could simply have chosen not to open it. If a thread is unwanted, no one responds, and it quickly falls off the page. There's nothing wrong with investors asking the ASIC vendor's what's going on, but the problem is that every single one of them has responded multiple times with the same basic thing, "They'll be done, when they're done." Yet we see more posts every day of people asking the same thing, when will they be done, why aren't they done already, they must be scammers because they didn't hit their date, etc., etc. Believe me, I want my ASIC's too right now too. I'm tired of dealing with the noise/heat of GPU mining, but there's not a thing I can do about it, and if I was truly concerned, I'd ask for a refund.
I would say that the problem isn't that people keep asking and getting the same response, it's that the response is unhelpful. Saying "it will happen when it happens" is basically not a response at all (this applies to all MFGs). The latest incident with BFL is perfect example of why people are repeatedly asking for transparency. They are told "Everything is DONE! Chips are coming in on XX date, and then your stuff is going out!" until they are told "well something or other happened so it'll actually be a lot longer then we said." If there were a clearer picture into the design window, reasonable estimates of failure, where companies were at in the process, people might not feel so in the dark, and feel so "betrayed" by missed deadlines and whatnot. Don't get me wrong, I always expect the masses to get all bothered by not getting their candy right when they want it, but it'd be a lot less dramatic. If you don't like a billion threads about the same thing, I would certainly see you being in favor of that. |
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They should sell the bare "dud" chips as souvenirs.
Not a bad idea really, earrings, necklaces, keychains. Turn a negative into a positive. Though I think they need to deliver a working product before people are in a good enough mood to buy those heh. |
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If someones ignore button is yellow, does that mean tons of people have ignored them and the forum is suggesting I do so also?
I've only seen two people with yellow Ignore buttons now, electricmucus and MeSarah
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