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4401  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 21, 2015, 06:08:12 AM
I think that the price is simply showing that it is more pegged to the USD than BTC. 
 
It has fluctuated around 35 to 40 cents for months now.  I'll be initiating an insider buy in the coming weeks of anywhere from 10 to 20 whole Monero.  I don't expect it will move the price much, but I'll let you know when I do.

20 Monero is only $8.

Don't hate.
4402  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [AEON] Aeon Speculation on: October 21, 2015, 05:04:32 AM
(buyer)

(buyer)

This seems to be the problem. Maybe some sellers will show up but so far every effort I've made both privately and publicly to try to create larger block liquidity has failed for lack of sellers.

 
 
I think sellers are expecting an unreasonable price for their AEON.  Which is fine, if they believe in it long term then perhaps they should hold onto it, but it's frustrating when people offer large blocks and don't accept above market price offers for it. 
 
I think currently (and I probably shouldn't even say this yet because I don't own any AEON) we should expect that at a minimum Polo will eventually pick up AEON and the price will jump up, even if Smooth only makes minor improvements from here on out.  It's probably a pretty good place to park some small-time speculator assets.  On the other hand, the network doesn't need people parking money into it - it needs people playing with it and transacting with it.

Develop a way to spend aeon and you'll see use. Has anyone talked to Risto about adding it to CK? Is there a gambling site in the works? A mobile wallet? A business that accepts it? Can't really blame people for squatting on land when there isn't a way yet to till or build-on it.

It is not my decision so maybe I am out of place in saying this but I hope CK accepts Monero only for quite some time.  CK is one of the things that makes Monero unique.  I think the advantage it provides to Monero may start to be diluted (as would the support of the Monero community for the game) if other currencies start to be accepted to soon. Just my opinion and I am aware others may disagree.

I fully support Aeon, adding more merchants and everything else you said. 

I agree with you. CK is a "Monero thing". We should find our own path.

(That is just my opinion, If CK wants to accept AEON I'm not going to actively discourage them.)
4403  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: October 21, 2015, 05:03:37 AM
Holy shit, 200 mixin?  Isn't it pretty unfeasible to ever trace a transaction even after just 3 mixin?  
  
200 is like breaking matter down to quarks and reassembling it.  Grin

If there are many transactions, it is difficult to trace after 3 minxin.

I think the point is that a stress test (or blockchain parse to check for available mixins) is useful technical information. People should know what the maximum possible mixin is so they don't accidentally exceed it.

There is no maximum (unless there is a bug, so as you say it is useful to test). It is limited only by physical size of the data.
4404  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero vs Boolberry Chess Challenge and CryptoNote technical discussion on: October 21, 2015, 01:01:10 AM
exf5
4405  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: [AEON] OTC thread & escrow | BID/ASK: 0.0150/0.0290 XMR | latest: 0.0180 XMR on: October 20, 2015, 11:25:55 PM
I was pointed to your thread. Nice work. Kudos.

The original is here, having been imitated countless times since. I appreciate the flattery.

* smooth toots own horn



4406  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [AEON] Aeon Speculation on: October 20, 2015, 11:23:49 PM
(buyer)

(buyer)

This seems to be the problem. Maybe some sellers will show up but so far every effort I've made both privately and publicly to try to create larger block liquidity has failed for lack of sellers.
4407  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: October 20, 2015, 07:21:01 AM
The key could be in comparing the yearly 24/7 electricity costs of a regular PC (or VPS subscription) VS purchase + running costs of a boxed node.

The electricity costs on these low end nodes can be extremely low, especially without mining (with mining, the mining revenue, even if small, should offset some of the cost). For example, a Raspberry Pi 2 runs a Monero node reasonably well and uses about 2 watts. So something like 3 USD per year. The more powerful nodes use more power but even at 30 USD per year that's still reasonably favorable compared to a VPS or a regular PC.


4408  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 06:15:02 AM
But why are you skeptical when some have raised a lot of money. And some coins have had huge gains from their launch price.

Because they have mostly failed as developments, and especially as you say for ongoing development. Huge gains don't constitute success from my perspective if it just means getting a big pump and then engaging in a long march toward zero while interest fades and the original promoters and developers move on to their next big score. Of course the final chapter has not been written on most of these coins, but the outline of the story seems to be the same for all (or at least most) of them.

Quote
For refinements, probably a donation model is all that will work.

Perhaps now you understand my support for Monero's model as an inclusive open source project, where there are donations in cash, but most donations are in kind (collaborative development by ecosystem stakeholders). It struggles at first by comparison with ICOs, instamines, etc. but if you care about staying power, it is hard to beat.

It is a proven model that successfully develops core software infrastructure and has many examples of projects that has succeeded for decades (including, for a shorter time so far, Bitcoin, which BTW, entirely dwarfs all the "successful" coin projects you cite). I don't know that there is another applicable model with a similar track record.



4409  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 06:07:41 AM
I think Sia has probably the most promising model now (separate the coin from the project funding with a second token backed by a dedicated revenue stream), but that's still a work in progress so we'll see.

If the protocol is open to all to use and they don't have controlling entity status, then the profit margins should be driven towards 0 by competition unless control can be centralized. So any sort of revenue model seems to be the antithesis of decentralized, uncontrolled, and legal under securities law.

It is open source (I think), so anyone can fork it and compete. In that sense it is similar to Boolberry's mining payments to developer feature, or a premine. Anyone can fork it but if you want to use the original network (i.e. the developer created useful network effects) you are going to pay the developer.

As far as securities law, you would have to ask them. I do know there are some differing opinions (by which I mean actual professionally researched legal opinions) about what sorts of coin structures are legal. I have no idea if they are going that route or just ignoring the law.

Quote
What I meant earlier by "not have to trust" is that no one controls the protocol, so it would live on indefinitely as decentralized for as long as their some coins and demand/use for them.

That kind of seems to be the case with Boolberry. For a long time the developer was almost entirely absent (and is still mostly absent), yet while no serious technical obstacles exist, there was not really the incentive to fork it to remove the developer mining payments, so he's still getting them, and people continue to demand and use the coin, a little.
4410  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 03:06:17 AM
Again the point is upgrades need to fund developers and go smoothly

I understand that you want someone to pay you to develop. I hope that works out.

I'm deeply skeptical of coins intended to function as currency also serving as a funding vehicle. I don't rule it out but so far every effort has not gone terribly well. Maybe there are exceptions but they are hard to find.

I think Sia has probably the most promising model now (separate the coin from the project funding with a second token backed by a dedicated revenue stream), but that's still a work in progress so we'll see.

Quote
Upgrades shouldn't exist then. Because you are thinking that crypto is about not having to trust.

No.
4411  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: October 20, 2015, 02:31:34 AM
The 1 TB version i built comes to ~$300 with a 750 ti, so you could get 250 h/s. And these are all retail component costs. Perhaps someday I'd be able to get scale prices somehow. Proper cooling has proven to be a pain - its difficult to find high quality small form factor fans - fans that could last 5 years of constant runtime. And then the question of how loud the fans can be.

The best solution for a 10 year low- or no-maintenance device is to go completely fanless. Forget the GPU unless you can find something decent that is fanless and can be mounted in a fanless chassis (which requires very low thermal output) and instead use a high efficiency CPU with good hash rate like the one we talked about on IRC (hash rate is roughly 120 for 15 watts, possibly less) with a brick PSU. It might require maintenance if the HD dies, but that's about it. Switching to SSD would reduce that. Even with with HD you can't do it $300 though. Not quite yet, but maybe next year.

Unfortunately what kills the price here is that the really cheap CPUs (Celeron, Atom, etc.) can't mine XMR well, but many of them can mine AEON. If you accept a much lower hash rate and efficiency you can still do it, and probably come in below $300 for the whole system.


Indeed, fanless would be the way to go, but yeah those devices we chatted about on irc really provide minimal hash for the buck IMO re: xmr. The 750 tis only pull 33 watts for 250 h/s, and the 750 (1 gb version) even less so for 200 h/s.

That's the same or likely better (since you also have to add the rest of the system overhead for the GPU system) efficiency for the CPU without the need for fans and a second device (size, assembly effort, etc). It is half the total hash rate, but that isn't really huge difference in terms of making a contribution to the network with a low-maint, cheap-to-operate device. Personally I'd rather have something that sits there completely silent for 10 years with zero attention from me than twice the hash rate. If I want more hash I can buy two. But I agree that is a value judgement.

Still it is hard to build that for an attractive price point <$300, so kind of irrelevant right now.

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as it stands, i might be able to get away with fanless. I'll have to run tests once its enclosed.

I doubt you can get 33 W GPU, CPU, HD, etc in a box with no fan. I don't even know whether the GPU can run fanless on its own. If I search for fanless 750-ti all I see are water cooled things (EDIT: I found some with heat pipes and massive heat sinks, but you still have to remove the heat from the box). Though maybe the low power usage of cryptonight mining means a custom built low-efficiency cooling solution could work. I still doubt you will get it in a box. The best you can likely achieve is a well designed box with one quality, relatively expensive, fan (which might last several years) that draws air across multiple devices for cooling. Even that would be a nice design accomplishment.

Quote
that and those devices are already built

I think you can get some high efficiency CPUs that are on raw boards or possibly even socketed where you can design and build your own box. When I've looked for that I've generally found them even more expensive though, so I disregarded it.
4412  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 02:23:11 AM
You are rightfully concerned what happens to the stragglers who are still in the old coin as M becomes small.

That is not the only concern no. But the existance of that concern points to others.

And remember your own comments about avoiding complexity. Your response to this or that issue here is to add another patch (time penalty, autoburn, etc. etc.). Likely an indication of being on the wrong track. This is common in crypto.

I don't claim that the spin off method has no negatives, but I think the others are worse, for reasons that get to the heart of why crypto exists in the first place. It is okay that you disagree, though. Different approaches make for experimentation and learning.

Quote
You tell me you know best about distribution

I don't recall that. If I did I retract it. I don't know what is best about distribution.

Quote
but with its widely touted "fair distribution" did Monero every raise hell in the market yet like DogeCoin, BitSharesX, and Ripple did?

I'm not sure what you are getting at here at all. All four of these seem to have peaked early and gone into a long slump. Ripple had a second pump but still ended up with another big decline and slump. Dogecoin had pretty much the same distribution method as Monero as far as I know, though maybe a bit faster (don't know the details).

What distinction are you trying to make here?
4413  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 01:47:32 AM
So side-chains may still be viable, but probably not with the tech Blockstream has available today.

Well that was 100% of what was being debated on cypherdoc's thread. Not to say I told you so, but the fact is I have a better-developed understanding and refined intuition on these matters than most, likely a consequence of other background I have, but is not disclosed to my crypto pseudonym.

If there are other technologies that exist later, we can discuss them later.

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How so? Did you forget arbitrage?

No.

Remember (see above) arbitrage was the same argument being made with side chains. It works in orderly markets, but doesn't defeat unsoundness.
4414  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Zero Knowledge Transactions on: October 20, 2015, 01:06:29 AM
If the old coin will be worthless or nearly so, then negative feedback and instability issues remain.

In the case of burn, as you indicated in your previous message, the money supply of the old coin is shrinking at the same time the network value is shrinking. Thus old coin price P=T/M where T is the value of the old network and M is the money supply of the old network. As people migrate (burn) you have T and M both approaching zero (but not necessarily at the same or even a constant rate) and P is not well formed and highly unstable as M shrinks. (Even cypherdoc understood this!) By contrast, in the case of a spin-off that obsoletes the old network, you simply have P=T/M where T approaches zero and M is fixed, so this expression is well formed, and P is simply a clear measure of value where the market will naturally absorb speculative fluctuations between old and new, allowing stability and transparency.

How does an equation with two variables become not well formed?

Sorry I mistyped. I meant well-defined in the sense of having a well-defined value or behavior as M approaches zero (which after all is the intent of al this). The point being that reducing both M and T at the same time inherently results in potentially wild price swings and instability, which do not exist if M is left constant.

Also, on the matter of burning being more informational, that can very well contribute to the problems. Game theory is complex and withholding information can have value, so if you force people to reveal information you may discourage them from taking the action (until a cascade or other instability requires them to do so). That is not really the intended outcome here but in game theory analysis, intent doesn't matter, outcomes do.

I'm not going to address the other points individually because I've stated my perspective, and I'm reasonably confident it is more correct (though may err in small areas as my effort to analyze this in precise detail has been limited). I also feel you will understand the issues in time, as you have (somewhat) on the question of sidechains. Thus there is no need to debate point by point. (You will note by the way that I likewise did not extensively debate point-by-point on sidechains and simply let you and others figure out over time what I had recognized earlier.)

Quote
Why do socialists always prefer a little short-term stability at the cost of manic, mass stampedes later.

In fact this is precisely what burning does. Spin offs do not create manic stampedes. So again we agree the goals but disagree on the analysis of various mechanisms. I'm content to leave it at that.

Also, in the case of a well-executed upgrade, the market will simply assign nearly all the value to the new coin virtually immediately. There is nothing for anyone to do really, other than claim their new coins (or have this done automatically by a wallet) and use them. The old coins will still exit, but become essentially irrelevant. People may wish to sell their old coins for a little bit of extra income, but keeping them as a low-value hedge is also okay to do (again much of this can be automated by wallets). Likewise in a well-executed upgrade everyone will probably just burn right away (though maybe not, as even small risks may encourage waiting, and it is impossible to hedge by holding on to your nearly-worthless old coins as in the other method).

The complex issues only occur with a poorly-executed upgrade, and that is exactly where you need the pricing mechanism of markets to dampen instabilities. In fact someone else on cypherdoc's thread reinvented the same mechanism to deal with the contentious hard fork debate (a block size increase being "a poorly executed upgrade" in my terminology because people disagree about whether it is even an upgrade at all), and he is absolutely correct that there is no other decentralized mechanism for deciding the outcome other than a market, so it is best to recognize that and design it to be orderly. So speculators will need to trade according to the best available information and users can either trade or not at their discretion (assuming prices are efficient it does't really matter what they do).

So if the developer never miscalculates or makes a mistake in strategy or implementation, then this distinction likely doesn't even matter. But misjudgments, and political disagreements are always a possibility, so I think it may matter in practice.
4415  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][CLAM] CLAMs, Proof-Of-Chain, Proof-Of-Working-Stake, a.k.a. "Clamcoin" on: October 20, 2015, 12:50:08 AM
Hi guys

I'm pleased to see so much debate about the current situation. I have a completely different thought and that is there are some Bitcoin people that actually hate all alt coins. I mean really hate, as far as they are

concerned alts just detract from Bitcoin. If such people have many addresses they have many Clams, they would be quite happy to dump hard hopping to destroy an alt. IMHO they don't care about how much they get

just how much damage they can do

Jon Wink 

Is it possible to tell whether the claimed CLAMs being dumped now come from BTC or one of the other chains? Maybe that has been answered before, but I don't remember seeing it.
4416  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: October 20, 2015, 12:27:04 AM
The 1 TB version i built comes to ~$300 with a 750 ti, so you could get 250 h/s. And these are all retail component costs. Perhaps someday I'd be able to get scale prices somehow. Proper cooling has proven to be a pain - its difficult to find high quality small form factor fans - fans that could last 5 years of constant runtime. And then the question of how loud the fans can be.

The best solution for a 10 year low- or no-maintenance device is to go completely fanless. Forget the GPU unless you can find something decent that is fanless and can be mounted in a fanless chassis (which requires very low thermal output) and instead use a high efficiency CPU with good hash rate like the one we talked about on IRC (hash rate is roughly 120 for 15 watts, possibly less) with a brick PSU. It might require maintenance if the HD dies, but that's about it. Switching to SSD would reduce that. Even with with HD you can't do it $300 though. Not quite yet, but maybe next year.

Unfortunately what kills the price here is that the really cheap CPUs (Celeron, Atom, etc.) can't mine XMR well, but many of them can mine AEON. If you accept a much lower hash rate and efficiency you can still do it, and probably come in below $300 for the whole system.


4417  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][CLAM] CLAMs, Proof-Of-Chain, Proof-Of-Working-Stake, a.k.a. "Clamcoin" on: October 20, 2015, 12:05:50 AM
It's the bet everyone made.

Everyone? Really? What about people who looked at CLAM and thought was overvalued so they didn't buy. Maybe some of these people are buying now (clearly someone is) or will buy if the price drops some more. We've already had one person on this thread state explicitly that he will buy if the price drops enough.
4418  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 19, 2015, 11:56:01 PM
Therefore, we (me) are counting on flash to "bridge the gap", but even without a breakthrough, I'd be quite surprised to NOT see sizes within 1 OOM of the 1 PB target for 2023 (100-200 TB or so).

We already have this: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/08/samsung-unveils-2-5-inch-16tb-ssd-the-worlds-largest-hard-drive/
It only needs 3-4 doublings to be inside my "not surprised" window (and come *substantially* down in price Smiley).

Color me optimistic.  Cool

From a total value perspective SSDs (of equivalent size) are superior to HDs in almost every respect (reliability, performance, etc.). Thus even if capacity doesn't increase at quite the same rate as it did within the HD era, some increases along with the transition from HD to SSD is still consistent with continued rapid improvements in price-performance ("performance" taken broadly in the case of storage to include size).

4419  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero vs Boolberry Chess Challenge and CryptoNote technical discussion on: October 19, 2015, 11:52:12 PM
Still following the game just didn't get a chance to vote on the last couple of moves. I like the moves we made though.
4420  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][CLAM] CLAMs, Proof-Of-Chain, Proof-Of-Working-Stake, a.k.a. "Clamcoin" on: October 19, 2015, 11:50:36 PM
Also you must account for the fact people were buying the coin the last year or so assuming the digging had crawled to an end and most new coins would be from staking.

They ASSUMED incorrectly.

Quote
So the emission should reflect that.

Why should the emission reflect a bad bet that some people made? That's absurd.


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