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4561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 12, 2014, 08:16:08 PM

I wasn't aware of any of that.
4562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 12, 2014, 07:45:42 PM
The Selfish Mining Attack:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/521321978037555200

Until Emin releases his code hack and it is found to be valid in practice, I think he should stop making public appearances with talks that essentially scare Bitcoin miners.  This is what occurred this weekend at Hashers United.  


Yeah, the problem is the degree to which he's beat the "doom" drum about this. Academics are often prone to the "it's not perfect, therefore it's crap" attitude, which is annoying (and naive). That said, the sooner academically-verified issues, including SM, are addressed, the better.


he's using a very lame excuse that he doesn't want to be overly criticized on bitcointalk if he releases his code that supposedly leads to Bitcoiner's losing money. Roll Eyes

yet he doesn't realize he's costing Bitcoiner's money by talking in public about what he's sure is a fundamental flaw in mining.  yet, the only reason he has confidence to talk in public is b/c his hack has not been thoroughly vetted. he doesn't want to have his code hack vetted by the world community at large like the hackers of the Heartbleed and Bash bug were willing to do.  his hack has been buried for almost a year.  we need to get this out and once and for all bury this festering doubt.

the other way he causes Bitcoiner's to lose money is to the degree that altscam investors believe him.  i saw this firsthand this weekend.  "oh see, Bitcoin has this major flaw therefore i will invest in this altcoin".  he claims his hack has been vetted by a few core devs.  that may or many not be.  that's still not equivalent to releasing it into the wild for vetting according to open source principles.
4563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 12, 2014, 04:22:33 PM
The Selfish Mining Attack:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/521321978037555200

Until Emin releases his code hack and it is found to be valid in practice, I think he should stop making public appearances with talks that essentially scare Bitcoin miners.  This is what occurred this weekend at Hashers United. 
4564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 12, 2014, 12:55:23 AM
Nice bid walls
4565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 11, 2014, 03:46:56 PM
...

But how would Coinbase getting raided be bullish for btc? This would destroy all kinds of businesses acceping btc...

I doubt Coinbase would be shut down as they've gone overboard with their AML. it's just a rumor at this point anyways, probably from an altscam proponent.



I don't think anyone said anything about Coinbase. Here's the original IRC transcript of this rumor:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2iujgv/secfincen_preparing_action_against_us_bitcoin/

Appears solely relevant to "Bitcoin 2.0" companies.


The tldr quote:
"[6:08:29 PM] taariq lewis: If you are in USA and you run a Bitcoin Business that issues tokens and you are not registered with FinCen, expect these fines to be established guidelines going forward"

BitsharesX seems vulnerable to this, if true.
Even though it's Invictus Innovation (based in Virginia) that has written the code, BitSharesX was purposefully (to avoid this kind of problems) released by a Hong Kong firm.

That doesn't matter at all if they still have investors/users from the USA.
To prevent that problem, Invictus didn't get money from investors, they only get money from donators.

And there are probably people who use BitSharesX from USA indeed, but that's like every other coins including Bitcoin.

I wouldn't think that would make a differenc.  The mere act of allowing the trading of shares without SEC or Fincen regulation would be a problem no matter where you reside.
4566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 11, 2014, 03:16:15 PM
Dow/Bitcoin
 -0.322
Uncorrelated

According to current trends in our data, this value is unlikely to behave as an indicator for bitcoin price movement

https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator


I think the -0.322 correlation is for bticoin versus crude_oil.

That's the default on page load, I click DOW, it updates the raw data window but the chart and main value still relate to crude Huh

You're right. Seems to have picked up a glitch since I last used the site.

also, correlations based on 1-2 days of data are trivial.  furthermore, the past may not correlate with the future.

there are some very good theoretical arguments why Bitcoin might begin to thrive in the presence of traditional financial turmoil.
4567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 11, 2014, 04:35:04 AM
i asked before, does a Dow top correspond with a Bitcoin bottom?

i think so.
4568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 11, 2014, 03:09:21 AM
https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/520772642249637889

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/520772642249637889
4569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 10, 2014, 03:05:59 PM
First the 30k BTC sell now this?
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2iu5xc/caution_counterparty_team_warns_of_fincen/
Think we got our bearwhale.

Rumour is out that Coinbase is going to get raided.

Many months ago I penned a post here stating that "The Blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money". If what is rumored here is true,  then my confidence level that this is true has just gone up to 80%. Perhaps someone can dig it up  for me.

I'm at a conference right now and on my phone so I can't dig the post out but I said that because a lot of these founders, who have lots of shares, are known, they and their protocols are highly exposed to gvt action allowing them to be easily killed.  Contrast that with Bitcoin where nobody knows who Satoshi is nor if he still owns his privkeys. There is a very good reason why  he disappeared.

If anything at all, this is Bullish for Bitcoin as it's truly the only safe haven whose founder remains anonymous and whose keys can't be confiscated.

Actually Nxt's founder remains anonymous as well.

But how would Coinbase getting raided be bullish for btc? This would destroy all kinds of businesses acceping btc...

as far as NXT, the difference is that if its dev continues devving for NXT, he will be found as opposed to Satoshi who won't. he's at great risk  plus, there's all the other problems with POS we've already debated and him holding potentially the vast majority of NXT coins.

with alts, any wise investor at this stage of the game insists on knowing who the devs are to hold them accountable.  the market has given a pass to Bitcoin in this regard since it was first and it's too late and are satisfied with its current dev team who actually doesn't appear to have a signif amt at risk with Bitcoin.
4570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 10, 2014, 02:54:12 PM
First the 30k BTC sell now this?
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2iu5xc/caution_counterparty_team_warns_of_fincen/
Think we got our bearwhale.

Rumour is out that Coinbase is going to get raided.

Many months ago I penned a post here stating that "The Blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money". If what is rumored here is true,  then my confidence level that this is true has just gone up to 80%. Perhaps someone can dig it up  for me.

I'm at a conference right now and on my phone so I can't dig the post out but I said that because a lot of these founders, who have lots of shares, are known, they and their protocols are highly exposed to gvt action allowing them to be easily killed.  Contrast that with Bitcoin where nobody knows who Satoshi is nor if he still owns his privkeys. There is a very good reason why  he disappeared.

If anything at all, this is Bullish for Bitcoin as it's truly the only safe haven whose founder remains anonymous and whose keys can't be confiscated.

Actually Nxt's founder remains anonymous as well.

But how would Coinbase getting raided be bullish for btc? This would destroy all kinds of businesses acceping btc...

I doubt Coinbase would be shut down as they've gone overboard with their AML. it's just a rumor at this point anyways, probably from an altscam proponent.
4571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 10, 2014, 02:28:03 PM
First the 30k BTC sell now this?
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2iu5xc/caution_counterparty_team_warns_of_fincen/
Think we got our bearwhale.

Rumour is out that Coinbase is going to get raided.

Many months ago I penned a post here stating that "The Blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money". If what is rumored here is true,  then my confidence level that this is true has just gone up to 80%. Perhaps someone can dig it up  for me.

I'm at a conference right now and on my phone so I can't dig the post out but I said that because a lot of these founders, who have lots of shares, are known, they and their protocols are highly exposed to gvt action allowing them to be easily killed.  Contrast that with Bitcoin where nobody knows who Satoshi is nor if he still owns his privkeys. There is a very good reason why  he disappeared.

If anything at all, this is Bullish for Bitcoin as it's truly the only safe haven whose founder remains anonymous and whose keys can't be confiscated.
4572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 08:01:54 PM
rocks,  the only thing I'd  say there is that liquidity has been extra tight since gox went down.  The AML/KYC stuff has stopped alot of people from creating accounts. This happened to me until Circle only this last week.

Pantera can presumably see into the order book.  Maybe. They have lots of coin. Would they take advantage of the situation? Who knows.
4573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 07:55:13 PM
Not saying it did happen,  just saying a  unique condition is in place for them to take advantage. The fact that Ron Glantz & Pantera Capital follow me on Twitter I suppose should be flattering but I remain suspicious of the timing of selloffs with many of my posts.

 Not to mention the somewhat irresponsible price projections and republishing of the $4.2M projection 2d after the selloff and the disappearance of trolls.

Oh well.  
4574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 07:09:59 PM
Dow - 321
4575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 05:21:04 PM
Dow - 295 Shocked
4576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 04:31:56 PM
Regardless of the trolls, what I like about the theory in particular (that I didn't know until now) are the details regarding Pantera's relationship with BitStamp.  This make two things more believable: (1) Pantera may have had some knowledge of the fiat balances that weekend on BitStamp as well as the propensity of the account holders to use them (giving Pantera confidence to nibble the wall rather than gulp it in a single bite thereby exposing their strategy), (2) Pantera would be more confident holding large balances on BitStamp than other investors.  

1,relationship with Circle too http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/pantera-capital
2,low price = more costumers and it's easy to buy with CC/DC or bank account
3,they are also nice connected together https://panteracapital.com/video/pantera-w14-morehead-athey/


the WAY the wall was eaten is not inconsistent with Pantera being the majority buyer.  remember, the wall was jumping around.  Pantera could have started nibbling at the wall hoping that the wall would be reset at a lower price, as it had actually been earlier in the day.  somewhere around 290 or so, iirc.

also in regards to the OTC buy theory.  that theory requires a doubling of a manipulator's risk.  they have to not only hope to find a large OTC seller in the middle of the night on a Sunday when no one's working PLUS set up the 30K wall which puts them at risk for losing all of those 30K coins at an artificially low price thus destroying that strategy.

no, if there indeed was manipulation, the easiest and most straight forward way to do it would be to keep selling small and large chunks of BTC at the market over a 4 mo time all the while waiting with a large chunk of fiat on the #1 exchange that you happen to own waiting for a weak BTC loaded whale to panic dump.

if anyone knows of any addresses that are owned by Bitstamp and Pantera, those would be an interesting place to start looking for confirmatory movements or accumulations of BTC.
4577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 04:22:28 PM
if Jim Cramer can admit to manipulating S&P futures in pre-hours trading via his hedge fund in a public video, don't you think Pantera might be willing to do the same?  especially when they own an equity position in the most often referenced exchange and can probably see the order books?  remember, they are the first Bitcoin only hedge fund established back in the early days with a substantial #BTC.  also, look at the totality of the evidence i've presented. 
4578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 04:09:29 PM
BFX shorts at ALL TIME HIGH.  SQUEEZE THE SHIT OUT OF THEM:

4579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 04:04:18 PM
the sweet smell of deflation:

4580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 09, 2014, 02:38:23 PM
Wow, just some incredible posts the last few pages; I'm seriously wondering if I've taken a wrong turn with crypto.  Some of this conspiracy stuff about "the manipulator" is just plain ludicrous, I'm going to stop myself because I don't won't get into either a discussion/argument nor offend anyone.

I seriously believe a lot of you need to take a break from monitors and charts and analysis; take a walk in the woods, dance, talk to people face to face, visit another country.  Find some balance.

sure, it all could be just normal volatility.  we'll never know for sure.

but even if you disagree with the message or the messenger, what excuse to you give for slamming "crypto" in general?
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