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461  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you really believe in bitcoin as a currency? on: December 03, 2013, 11:33:48 PM
Right.  The plan as I understand it is that miners will announce the blocks with a list of tx, and then the rest of the network (who already have most of these tx in their memory pool) will assemble the blocks to store in the local blockchains themselves.  

That reduces the size of blocks (for propagation purposes only) by 90%, making inclusion of a particular tx only about 10% as expensive in orphan costs as it is now. It has no effect on the size of the stored blockchain, unfortunately.



By itself, no.  However this is simply leveraging the merkle tree to reduce bandwith redundency.  There is nothing that requires that all nodes, even all mining nodes, store a complete blockchain.  Locally set pruning rules will permit any nodes that choose to prune to maintain a fairly stable blockchain size, as each new transaction confirmed permits at least one older transaction to be pruned, after a point.
462  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you really believe in bitcoin as a currency? on: December 03, 2013, 10:03:14 PM
I know they are working on two parallel blockchains, one consisting of headers, the other of actual blocks, so a new full node will essentially start working the same way as Multibit, being ready for use within a minute or two once it downloads the headers, and then downloading the rest of the blockchain in the background.

Well, it's not really parallel blocks.  It's just that the blocks will be "naked"; in the sense that a block is really just the 80 byte header, the 'reward' transaction and the merkle tree.  The transactions can be included, or not, by any node.  However, as a matter of simplicity of the early network, blocks are still published with all of the transactions included.  This has never been the end goal.  It was intended from the start that blocks be published naked, which will reduce the network's overall bandwidth because transactions won't have to propogate twice.
463  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you really believe in bitcoin as a currency? on: December 03, 2013, 09:54:55 PM
Okay, the limits I'm talking about are this.   Currently there's a maximum block size that won't allow more than 8 transactions per second.  And in practice blocks are mostly limited to about 250k by the miners.  They're limiting size because bigger blocks are more likely to be orphaned, so they'd lose the block reward. It's not worth it to them to include tx above that limit without fees of $3.30 per tx according to Gavin's figures.


This figure is based upon a rising risk of orphan blocks, and includes a great many assumptions about how the "average" miner is connected.  The figure varies based upon the current exchange rate, the current block reward, the average rate of orphans and the difference between the average rate and the rate that adding the extra transactions provide.  In short, the figure is a very well educated guess, but it's still a guess.  The fact that it exists, can be calculated based upon a lot of changing variables, and is higher than the minimum transaction fee only establishes that a market rate for transactions will always exist. If you need your transaction processed faster, provide a fee that exceeds whatever Gavin's Cost is at any given moment.  If you don't need your transaction included immediatly, then lower your fee and you can still expect it to process at some point.  This is not an issue at the moment, and with the decreasing block reward, isn't likely to be a limiting factor in the future.

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So he's working on a plan to reduce block size by 90% which ought to reduce the miners disincentive to include tx in a block.  That would reduce the risk of an orphaned block by 90% but it wouldn't change the tx per second limit.


Are you taling about the plan to permit blocks to be published as only the header and merkle tree?  And letting the netowrk nodes aquire the transactions that fit into those merkle trees from their peers "loose", in a manner similar to how the Stratum network functions?  This would do that, but this isn't the primary motive for doing this.  Right now, blocks are published complete, which means that the network bears the burden of propogating all transactions twice, which is just inefficient since most nodes already have all of these transactions in their own queues by the time any block is published.

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We've already given up on doing micropayments.  That's a huge opportunity lost. But there's no way the current protocol can do it cheaply enough.

We haven't given up on that, such solutions are simply off network/ out of band; take a look at the Stratum overlay netowrk, which does some things similar, and then imagine what happens when wallet services/bitcoin banks agree to link together over a similar overlay network.  They can simply agree to accept the word of their institutional peers that a member of theirs has issued a payment of such-n-such to a member of the receiveing institution.  Would work much like Ripple is intended to work with individuals, but can't really because individuals don't really know enough about each other to really develop the credit trust.  While there would have to be an imbalance limit, to be settled up periodically over the main bitcoin network, most of the time major instituions' interlinked balances would simply cancel each other out.  Micropayments of arbitrarily small amounts of bitcoin then become possible.

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And it wouldn't eliminate the disincentive.  It would just reduce the fee level needed to overcome it.  To about ten times what people are paying now.

GAvin's Cost will naturally decrease over time, as it's primarily the block reward (and the market price) and the risks of losing all of one that imposses this theoretical costs of including transactions.  If the market rate remains steady, Gavin's Cost cuts in half the next time the block reward drops.  Eventually the transaction fees become the primary finacing method of professional miners, and Gavin's Cost only sets a theoretical price floor over time.

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The block chain is already a barrier to entry for running a full node. It's huge. Downloading it takes a week with the current protocol.  You might get lucky and get a high bandwidth peer to download from but most people don't.


There is a method of mining that does not require a full blockchain, that was noted by Satoshi in the white paper.  Also, rapid bootstrapping of a fresh node is also possible out-of-band, simply by downloading a recent snapshot of the blockchain from a trusted source and letting the new client scan it.  Neither method is yet implimented, simply because it's not really an issue.

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The block chain can come down to a tenth of that time by optimizing the protocol but that's still too long. And the block chain is growing faster and faster.

It wold reduce to less than that by simply instituting block pruning, which was described in the white paper as well, and is the real reason that the merkel trees were included in the protocol from the start.  You can hack your node to prune your own client now, if you like.  It's just not a standard feature in the reference cleint yet.

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The client eats a lot of upstream bandwidth and currently allows no way to throttle it,  so nodes drop out of the network and catch up every so often.  That turns them into a drag on the network rather than an asset.


Again, take a look at Stratum.

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The client can be made better behaved, but bandwidth will continue to scale with the number of transactions.  Even a better behaved client will still crumble under a transaction volume that justifies Bitcoin's current price.


Maybe, but I'm still willing to bet that hardware will outpace Bitcoin network demand growth.

464  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 03, 2013, 09:20:25 PM
Except that I demostrated several reasons why that is not an economic fact; and that it's long been understood that there will be institutions willing to mine zero margin or less for other economic reasons.  One of which I actually do, wchich is use the heat for zone heating in winter (roughly 15% of the network hash power is "other unknown" which I would be part of) another being the competing cartels (Walmart&McDonalds versus Target & Burger King) mining for major players in competing industries, for which finance is not tehir primary business, but is already a cost center.

Ignoring Mr. Mint's concerns for a bit, I woonder, do you, or others, believe that part of the mining sincentive will also be for wealthy establishments to simply secure their wealth? E.G. if I am rich without Bitcoin, I pay large fees to my bank and security to keep my money, gold, and other wealth safe. If I am rich with bitcoin (or even if I am a wealthy corporation that has a lot of bitcoin) and want to hedge against mining attacks and help maintain the status quo, I pay to run my own mining hardware, even if it is a small portion of the whole network, and even if I have to do it at a loss.

I'm sure we discussed this point two+ years ago, and likely every year this discussion has come up since, but what are people's opinions on this, now that mining has moved from complex GPU rigs, to simple and compact ASIC appliances?

Actually, we did discuss this exact thing in detail about two years ago, RAssah.  My short answer is, of course any very well heeled individual and/or bitcoin based finance institution is going to go to great lengths to secure their own miing operations.  For comparision, most consumer bank branches have very large, very expensive valut systems; even though in our modern digital age such an expense is no longer neccessary for their primary business.  Bitcoin 'banking' institutions are going to compete in many different ways, and touting their hashing capacity is as much a psycological benefit for an online bitcoin bank as a time-lock safety deposit box safe is for a brick & mortor institution.  Also, I expect such banks to compete by advertising their ability to offer free transactions.  One might be able to offer those free transactions because the bank itself has recepriprocity agreements with major retailers such as Walmart, or they might just e able to do so by sponoring some significant mining operations of their own, similar to my Walmart example.  While Walmart would do it to process their own "free" transactions at their own meatspace counters in a timely manner, actual bitcoin based financial institutions would do it as a benefit to their membership.  While free transactions can be sent by anyone, only a bank with their own mining under contract can promise that those same transactions will be processed for "free" within any time frame.  It thus becomes a comparative advantage over a bank that just offered basic bitcoin banking services, and didn't sponsor their own mining gear.

Bitcoin banks offering free transactions, for their own reasons, would by itself undermine AnonyMint's transactions withholding attack theory.  If numerous institutions are offering free transactions within their own limited scopes, then no cartel can develop with the premise that free transactions processing is an advantage that only a cartel member would have access to.
465  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 03, 2013, 07:07:55 PM
Cutting out noise to address a particular point.


He makes too many assumptions about how other nodes will respond.

Exactly the opposite. I make far fewer assumptions about the choices of nodes. See the Cracking the Code thread in the Bitcoin discussion subforum where they assume that 100% of the nodes will run a centralized designed client software. And where they assume that the convergence of nodes will be to the attacked chain. I make no assumptions. I call it a risk.

Since when did 100% become more likely than a range of possibilities? That defies a fundamental comprehension of entropy, chaos and nature.

He assumes that all (non-negligible) nodes will react in what he considers to be the highest profit seeking manner; thus completely ignoring the fact that many nodes have economic incentives to resist the formation of a cartel,

Rather I assume that miners can't continue if their electricity costs more than the income they receive. That seems to be a basic accepted economic fact.


Except that I demostrated several reasons why that is not an economic fact; and that it's long been understood that there will be institutions willing to mine zero margin or less for other economic reasons.  One of which I actually do, wchich is use the heat for zone heating in winter (roughly 15% of the network hash power is "other unknown" which I would be part of) another being the competing cartels (Walmart&McDonalds versus Target & Burger King) mining for major players in competing industries, for which finance is not tehir primary business, but is already a cost center.

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that many nodes have economic incentives to try to outcompete and otherwise undermine the primary cartel membership (in this case Amazon, and because Amazon has real competitors, just not direct ones) and that many nodes have no significant economic incentive in either case, but do have a vested interest in the network's 'status quo'.

Noise sounds good. But is completely devoid of relevant information content. I will not explain.


And that is the point Rassah & I have been making.  You don't respond to critisisms of your theory.  If you can't manage my objections to your theory, then you don't have a theory.
466  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Only 500 persons owns 36% of all bitcoins? on: December 03, 2013, 06:51:59 PM
If any of Satoshi's btc is spent, I am sure there will a flood of "OMG, satoshi is back!!!" posts.

If any of Satoshi's btc move i think the price will collapse instantly.

Based upon what, exactly?

So if the creator and original programmer of bitcoin moves his ,untouched for years coins, wouldn't that raise some flags for you?


Not really.  Not only would I have to be able to know which coins are Satoshi's (only the first few hundred blocks can be assumed to be Satoshi's), I'd also have to know that he didn't sell those block reward addresses out-of-band.  Neither of these things are knowable, unless he tells us.  We'd also have to know that Satoshi himself was still alive, and some heir wasn't finally making moves with inherited funds.  Keep in mind that he stopped talking to us shortly before the last Tsunami killed thousands of Japanese in a single day.  If Satoshi is actually Japanese & actually an individual, he might be dead.

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I mean most people will speculate that he is moving coins in order to sell them. And if satoshi sells coins then hell i 'll sell to. Every single one of them.


Go right ahead.  I don't agree that everyone will sell them, but I'll offer you an early deal.  Get out now and I'll pay you half price on all that you have.
467  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Only 500 persons owns 36% of all bitcoins? on: December 03, 2013, 02:57:54 PM
If any of Satoshi's btc is spent, I am sure there will a flood of "OMG, satoshi is back!!!" posts.

If any of Satoshi's btc move i think the price will collapse instantly.

Based upon what, exactly?
468  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 03, 2013, 02:47:14 PM
Why do you think they are bullshit? I read them multiple times and I came to the opposite conclusion.

I can't speak for MoonShadow, but for me they seemed like a combination of "difficult to digest" with "mediocre conclusions." Once I managed to process what his words were trying to say, the thing he was actually saying wasn't all that impressive, which only made it all that much more disappointing. Plus he still made some claims I find questionable. This is about his economic writings though.

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Seems to me that he is not out of his league at all in fact I think he is holding his own rather well.

He may not be out of his league in economics, but you can't become and expert in economics, and then just claim that you are an expert in Bitcoin. The technology, and the way bitcoin actually works, is clearly out of his league. But instead of recognizing that, taking other's information into consideration, and actually learning about it, he seems convinced that, because he is so smart and is an expert in one field, that he is an expert in Bitcoin and understands it better after two weeks than the people who have discussed it for over two years. Note, this is the same mistake that a lot of economists have been making when they were writing news articles bashing Bitcoin.

AnonyMint is not out of his league in economics.  That is to say, that he is obviously capable of understanding, and seems to have some kind of professional education in the topic.  However, he spends a great deal of time restating commonly held economic myths in a somewhat novel way.  It seems to me that he is either self-taught and young, or his professional education in Economics is incomplete.  He understands it like a promising student. 

That said, I agree with Rassah on his overall assessment.  Even mastery of Economics (which AnonyMint has not acheived, imo) is not enough to understand Bitcoin.  It's not even close.  I had to learn a great deal about subjects that I was little better than a layman; including but not limited to, cryptography and other high math, psychology and programming.  I am far from a master of these topics even now, but I am far better than a layman in each; and at a minimum understand the roles they play in Bitcoin.  Also, I was here when Satoshi was still posting.  I know some other things that aren't even mentioned in the white paper regarding security, some that are already in the main client, others that are not; that complicate (although don't render impossible) the execution of several general methods of attacking the blockchain or the network.  I know, personally, that Satoshi foresaw much more than most of us understood.  Bitcoin's elegant design was not luck.  Personally, I came to the conclusion that the Satoshi on this forum was only a front man for a team of pros; because even thought a true polymath could do this, he often had some rather large delays between the asking of hard questions and their associated responses, implying to me that he was consulting someone out of view.  Redardless, Satoshi (& company) did not expect that mining nodes would remain fair and trustworthy with one another.  He/She/They fully expected that some major nodes would try to game the system to their own advantage, and that they can be expected some measure of success; but since these activities can be detected over time, that those nodes would be retaliated against in various ways.  This is one reason that I, personally, have real doubts that Proof of Stake has any real future in cryptocurrency, since staking by it's nature assumes that nodes with high stakes won't turn malicious, and thus there is some level of trust placed on those 'supernodes'.  Bitcoin does not have supernodes.

And it's in the retaliation aspect, not his analysis of (limited in scope) economic incentives that his attack vector collapses.  He makes too many assumptions about how other nodes will respond.  He assumes that all (non-negligible) nodes will react in what he considers to be the highest profit seeking manner; thus completely ignoring the fact that many nodes have economic incentives to resist the formation of a cartel, that many nodes have economic incentives to try to outcompete and otherwise undermine the primary cartel membership (in this case Amazon, and because Amazon has real competitors, just not direct ones) and that many nodes have no significant economic incentive in either case, but do have a vested interest in the network's 'status quo'.  While he can present his attack, he doesn't respond to objections to his attack with any arguments, only insults and implications that he has already addressed such objections earlier.  I've read the thread, he's done no such thing; at least not in a rational and non-hostile manner.  Many of us have grown tired of his childish trolling masked as a somewhat intellectual debate.
469  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 03, 2013, 06:05:40 AM
Honestly, no one really gives a shit, Anonymint.

I do.

I judge AnonyMints intellect not by the above post because as they say talk is cheep but by the quality of his work. His economic writings are profound. (See my post titled Economic Devastation)

There is no denying he is one smart dude.

I don't deny that he is smart, but he is still out of his depth here.  Really, no one cares what his credentials might be, true or false, only his arguments matter here.  So far, I find his arguments sorely lacking in substance or merit.  His economic writings are bullshit.
470  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 03, 2013, 05:04:33 AM
Honestly, no one really gives a shit, Anonymint.
471  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 02, 2013, 08:35:00 PM
I have it bigger than all of you...my IQ I mean!
I find it all silly, myself.
472  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Only 500 persons owns 36% of all bitcoins? on: December 02, 2013, 08:10:44 PM
Only 500 persons owns 36% of all bitcoins? come on thats a joke? i saw it in bitcoinrichlist. i wish i own those addresses lol.

Even if this statement is true, which I doubt, it's still a more level wealth distribution than US dollar denominated wealth is.
473  Economy / Economics / Re: Transactions Withholding Attack on: December 02, 2013, 07:37:46 PM
Also, my IQ is around 160, so  Tongue

You are now a confirmed liar.

I know of at least one 160 IQ person and he is smarter than me. You don't even demonstrate Mensa 132 level, which I am above. More evidence.

My younger brother has a tested IQ above 160.  He also has a mild case of Asbergers's Syndrome, and has real trouble making practical decisions as a direct result.  No one that has ever met him would think that he is so intelligent, particularly since IQ doesn't measure intelligence.  Only those who don't know what the IQ actually measures use it as evidence of their own superiority.

I rang in at 149 as a teen, BTW.
474  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: December 01, 2013, 02:32:17 AM
"Here is the central fact of money. Money is the product of the market process. It arises out of an unplanned, decentralized process. This takes time. It takes a lot of time."

Thats both the dollar and Bitcoin ruled out.

Today's systems are working fine.  You could argue that things might be a bit better but overall things are fine.

The dollar was derived from a long process derived from a commodity money system that was originally fractionally debased by private banks ultimately leading to the public to support the notion of a central bank to back stop some of the frequent bank runs and depressions.


This last part is historicly false.  It's a widely held belief, mostly because of the degree of propaganda that the supporters of central banking have put out there over the past century.  There is, quite literally, no evidence that suggests that chartering of a central bank was ever an issue with any popular support, and particularly not in 1913 when it actually happened.  To be blunt, even the bill's planning and existance was a secret right up until it was introduced into congress, and passed with a flurry.  It makes Pelosi's "we have to pass it so you can see what's in it" bullshit look like high minded parlimentarly process.

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Arguing against the Austrian theory of the origin of money is insane.

Maybe, but not only do many actual economists argue that the Regression Theory is flawed, but Gary North doesn't even use it (if one assumes he is a true Austrian, I don't) in the proper sense.
475  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: December 01, 2013, 02:21:13 AM
I was pointing to the logic in the linked article.  Personally I don't think Gary North made a fair representation of Austrian thinking but that's the article we were asked to read and discuss.

And you said you didn't read it! Smiley

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I still think the fact that everyone in society has access to endless food and endless leisure means that things are "fine."  Improvements possible but lets not go nuts and ignore just how good modern life really is.

Hmmm.  Define society please?  Half of the US is living off of the other half.  Is that endless food and endless leisure?  

Not sure about you, but I personally am required to go to work 5 days a week to earn a living.  It is work, I wouldn't call it leisure.  I don't have servants at my beckon to take care of daily chores and tasks.  Nor am I am one one of those privileged to have a summer and winter home.  Nor do I have a luxurious pension and retirement plan waiting for me when I get older as the "fat cat" banksters and politicians do.


I'm pretty sure that he meant that in the context of the level of work to rest ratio that prior generations have had to endure.  On net, he's correct in this sense, although it's not 'endless'.
476  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you really believe in bitcoin as a currency? on: December 01, 2013, 12:44:08 AM
Unfortunately I think the "miners are going out of business" concern troll will be with Bitcoin for a long time.  There is just way too much potential profit to be made by erecting even the smallest roadblocks in the way of mining competition for them to ever die out completely.

The reading comprehension of dolts is unfathomable. Never did I write "going out of business". What I said is the level of mining (although profitable for those miners) will not be funded sufficiently (relative to the size of the Bitcoin economy) to prevent a 50+% attack because  either you penalize transactions (which Bitcoin needs in order to be viable) or you incentivize my Transactions Withholding Attack.

The problem with you novices is you don't understand the issues well enough to even be making any decisions. You are ignorant.

AnonyMint, you neither understand of what you speak, nor know of whom you speak. 
477  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (+1,492% gains, +750% more than B&H) on: November 30, 2013, 11:58:47 PM
Just one question: Has anyone of our forecasters, technical analysts etc been able to see the move from 100s to 1000s?

When prices were at 100 $ in May 2013, our forecast was a rally to at least 320 $, with further upside into round numbers of 500 $ and 1000 $..

I remember that. Then again, S3052 has always been very bullish on Bitcoin. Time proved him to be dead on.

True.  But the merit of an investment advisor is not in his ability to predict an ongoing trend, but to predict an oncoming inflection point.  If S3052 will be able to change his bullish outlook in time to avoid a crash, then I will be impressed.
478  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: November 30, 2013, 10:51:41 PM
~10% daily growth!

For now.  Keep in mind that we've had several bubbles already, and a 10% daily growth rate screams "bubble!".

This has been nothing but a staircase.   I don't see a bubble.  We had 10% daily growth rates over.... and over ... and over .... and yet all we've done is gone up.


then you haven't been around here long enough.  I've seen at least three bubbles pop since I've been here.  It's like the Bitcoin economy is moving along at 10 times the speed of the greater economy as it grows.  I don't doubt that we'll see a $10K BTC before 2020, and maybe before 2016; but it's not all up.  Nothing is ever all up.
479  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin a Pyramid or Ponzi scheme & what are the ramifications? on: November 30, 2013, 10:41:04 PM

I was pointing to the logic in the linked article.  Personally I don't think Gary North made a fair representation of Austrian thinking but that's the article we were asked to read and discuss.


Fair enough.  I don't think Gary North is a fair representation of Austrian thinking under any context.  While he makes for some great reading; I'd say he is very much a conservative, and is rather constrained in his thought processes to be called an Austrian economist, even if he claims the term.

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Medically you are 100% correct.  Fit people who eat well don't have any lifespan advantage over fat couch potatoes once you take tobacco out of the picture.  While alive, they seem to have better quality of life in terms of less diabetes and the like but we all die at much the same age. 

I still think the fact that everyone in society has access to endless food and endless leisure means that things are "fine."  Improvements possible but lets not go nuts and ignore just how good modern life really is.

Well said.
480  Economy / Services / Re: Need a customer/fan sign for advertising? (Female) on: November 30, 2013, 10:34:34 PM
Is that a condom next to your mouse?

Looks like a book of matches and one of those wet-wipes you can get at BBQ resturants to me.
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