I am with the super bitbulls.
I'd say USD/BTC exchange rate will be a 2 digit number i.e. 10$ - 99$ sometime in 2011, 3 digit number number sometime in 2012, 4 digit number in 2013, 5 digit number in 2014 and will "stabilise" as a 6 digit number for the rest of the decade.
Is this based on increase use of BTC or collapse of USD? I'd be more interested in BTC/gold. |
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http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080827115251AAYDgdWQ: What world currencies are actually backed by gold? A: None Im no economist, but what would it take for bitcoins to be "backed by gold"? Possible, Plausible or Impossible? I see two possibilities either a wealthy person puts up some gold to back the whole currency, or a bitcoin wallet provider purchases gold and its customers wallets are backed by the gold standard. P.S. I have no gold. Just thinking out loud. You need a warehouse with 21 million units of gold. You pick the units. You then say you will redeem 1 BTC for each unit. You need to somehow be bound at this rate. Now it's backed by gold. It would be silly of you to do this. If 1 BTC ever was worth less than the gold, you'd be the proud owner of a ton of bitcoins and be out a lot of gold. If it became more, people would bring you gold and want bitcoins. Pegging one currency to the other always results in one hoarding the more valueable one and redeeming it for the less valued one. |
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There was some one on bitcoin-otc who mentioned he "the man that got this rally going from $0.7 cents by pumping $22,000 into the market in 5 days."
Is it possible this amount could move things so much? He then sold some at a loss and re-bought to keep the rally going.. is this possible?
"Gentleman, I am the man that got this rally going from $0.7 cents by pumping $22,000 into the market in 5 days.
I even sold up to 10,000 btc at a loss so I could get the cash to keep the rally going or cool it off if needed.
today, the game go much bigger than me
I am now along for the ride
>>>> if what you say is true about driving this rally, did it feel like there were other large buyers lifting the market along with you, or was this all you?
no this is not all me, look at the volumes
...
I was fool enough to try to slow down the market this morning
dump a lot of coins
but then relized too much money was there and had to get out of the way"
Of course it's possible. The market is super thin. If someone wants to accumulate a ton of bitcoins, it will drive the price up since there are not that many for sale on the exchanges. Not sure about his selling at a loss comment unless he wanted to buy a lot more and wanted to start a scare where everyone tried to get out on top. |
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With the guy receiving a lesson on not being too selfish we're one (small) step closer to having a world with more selfless people.
What is "too" selfish? What is wrong with being selfish? |
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Is it rational to reward anti-social behavior?
If you never see the guy again/deal with him again, is there any rational reason to punish him? Punishing anti-social behavior is only worth the cost if you actually have to face the person again and deal with them. Or someone you know and care about does. ... Even if neither i nor anyone i know will ever meet him again, i still would find it gratifying(sp?) to do my part, even if it's small, in making the world a better place. How does it make the world a better place? Would I make the world a better place if I rejected $10 because he was a fool and could have given me a penny? |
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some transactions just get delayed, check if your transaction appears on this site, if it does, just wait, it'll make it into a block sooner or later. It made it through. I always get stuck at 8 connections in my client as well, even though I thought I set up port forwarding correctly. I wonder if this is why I got delayed. |
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I had a transaction that went through 2 minutes before it, now it's sitting at 0/unconfirmed for the last 3 hours. Any ideas?
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I think being mocked a bit is a good punishment for being a smart ass.
If you think you are clever enough to lecture people about stuffs, you have to assume it.
A lot of people are doing and writing very smart things, and yet they don't feel the narcissic urge of showing their face on Youtube.
+1 Apparently some people did quite the opposite of what this guy is saying. I think the problem isn't whether he is a "brother in arms" but rather that he is close minded. As someone stated, his behavior indicates that he is "like minded" with anarchist or libertarian ideals not because he embraces them but rather because he nurtures anti government feelings, for whatever reason. I'm a gold bug myself yet I adopted Bitcoin at first sight, and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone here, which certainly prove the 2 aren't incompatible. Also, I'll take a wolf skull with those bison bones. Bitcoins and Gold have a lot in common. That surely is not a coincidence. There are two main advantages of Gold. 1) Track record/public knowledge 2) The inability to create more Gold-like commodities. Bitcoins are superior to Gold in that I can send them easily over the internet, verify them easier, and break them up more- just to name a few things. |
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This is boring. I mean, we already know those facts. It is obvious for Bitcoin community that there's no government which forces you to use Bitcoins. I think nobody here is 100% sure that Bitcoin will succeed. Although we participate in this project, we have fun with this, we speculate etc.
OK, this is his opinion, but who cares what is he saying?
Sure, everyone here knows. But there are other people who won't immediately know the weaknesses in his arguments. |
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This mockery is discouraging. Nielsio is a brother in arms. Maybe he's wrong about bitcoin, and mistaken about how currency can be valuable in and of itself, but let's not straw man him. Come on guys, he doesn't support government fiat--actually listen to what he said. And he doesn't think that vegetables make a good currency obviously; vegetables was just an example of a consumption good. The pictures made me sad because it's such a straw man. Come on guys, you can try to convince him why he's wrong. He has a good following of anarcho-capitalists and voluntaryists that could get on board. Mocking him is actually a travesty  Sometimes the best way to learn is just to put your conclusions out there, but be open to being shown to be wrong. Nielsio will change his mind if you can show why he's wrong. For the record, I saw his video and it made me think about the concepts involved and about why my intuition was telling me that he was wrong. I spent all day looking into bitcoin and I think it's wonderful. Some people here have provided some good answers, explaining how the properties that make gold good as currency make people value the gold as currency by itself. His psychic powers may be scarce, but they have none of the other properties that would make it good currency (unlike gold and bitcoins too). The fact that nobody would buy his psychic power certificates is not just because it has no genuine consumption value, but mostly because it lacks the properties vladimir described. And he would be the central issuer of this currency, w here with bitcoin and gold that is not the case. And yes, the properties that make gold good as jewellery or as an electrical conductor also means people value gold for those use cases, but that's different and unrelated. The fact that gold has value for some consumption too is just a sort of 'coincidence'. Of course, nearly every material has some use for consumption but very few materials have properties that make it a good currency (silver is another good currency but unlike gold it corrodes easily). Maybe these consumption use cases helped it become established at first, but I refuse to accept that it's a necessary step. Currency in and of itself is valuable. Without it we'd be bartering, so with currency our lives are better. So if gold had no foreseeable use as a consumption good, lives would still be improved by using it as a currency because we wouldn't be bartering. So logically the properties of currency itself provide a kind of value too, solely from its use as a good medium of exchange. I've dealt with Neilsio for many years, and him admitting he is wrong on ANYTHING is pretty much impossible. Even when it comes from someone he admires and respects. You will not convince him he is wrong about anything once he is convinced he knows the answer. Ok. I must admit I said that without knowing for sure, but he doesn't strike me as an ideologue. I'll concede though because you know him. I still don't think he's worth this mockery though. Possibly, but only because he could get to a lot of people, and a few people could drive up the price. He's a brother in arms only accidentally. I sense some kind of trauma in his past from government/schools/society that have made him the way he is more than actually understanding the concepts. |
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This mockery is discouraging. Nielsio is a brother in arms. Maybe he's wrong about bitcoin, and mistaken about how currency can be valuable in and of itself, but let's not straw man him. Come on guys, he doesn't support government fiat--actually listen to what he said. And he doesn't think that vegetables make a good currency obviously; vegetables was just an example of a consumption good. The pictures made me sad because it's such a straw man. Come on guys, you can try to convince him why he's wrong. He has a good following of anarcho-capitalists and voluntaryists that could get on board. Mocking him is actually a travesty Sometimes the best way to learn is just to put your conclusions out there, but be open to being shown to be wrong. Nielsio will change his mind if you can show why he's wrong. For the record, I saw his video and it made me think about the concepts involved and about why my intuition was telling me that he was wrong. I spent all day looking into bitcoin and I think it's wonderful. Some people here have provided some good answers, explaining how the properties that make gold good as currency make people value the gold as currency by itself. His psychic powers may be scarce, but they have none of the other properties that would make it good currency (unlike gold and bitcoins too). The fact that nobody would buy his psychic power certificates is not just because it has no genuine consumption value, but mostly because it lacks the properties vladimir described. And he would be the central issuer of this currency, w here with bitcoin and gold that is not the case. And yes, the properties that make gold good as jewellery or as an electrical conductor also means people value gold for those use cases, but that's different and unrelated. The fact that gold has value for some consumption too is just a sort of 'coincidence'. Of course, nearly every material has some use for consumption but very few materials have properties that make it a good currency (silver is another good currency but unlike gold it corrodes easily). Maybe these consumption use cases helped it become established at first, but I refuse to accept that it's a necessary step. Currency in and of itself is valuable. Without it we'd be bartering, so with currency our lives are better. So if gold had no foreseeable use as a consumption good, lives would still be improved by using it as a currency because we wouldn't be bartering. So logically the properties of currency itself provide a kind of value too, solely from its use as a good medium of exchange. I've dealt with Neilsio for many years, and him admitting he is wrong on ANYTHING is pretty much impossible. Even when it comes from someone he admires and respects. You will not convince him he is wrong about anything once he is convinced he knows the answer. |
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I suspect that the biggest problem will be trojans/viruses/exploits if wallet remains unencrypted. This should be addressed ASAP.
As to the other two points, backing up and remembering your password are trivial tasks. It's not 80's anymore - computers are here to stay and will become increasingly bigger part of our lives. We should learn to interact with them.
Should and reality are two different things. I have probably 50 different passwords for different things, different logons, etc... I'll forget them every once in a while and have been bailed out by the "forgot your password" link on things all the time. I'm not sure what the answer is, but if any significant wealth is stored on bitcoin, with no way to ever recover money, that's a big deal. Even if I get hit by a bus, it's gone unless I left the information in my will or a trust or something. |
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I don't even think the USD will see out the year  1 BTC = Infinity USD I'll bet you $1,000,000 it does! |
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I think deflation will promote savings and wise investments. I think inflation will promote the opposite. I think people will adapt.
I think the chief concern is that right now, deflation is promoting everyone hold onto their currency. It's not really an economy if the actual amount being spent is trivial, though I don't know whether it is, it just seems that way to an outside observer. To an outside observer though, it just seems like a bunch of people holding onto BTC because no one wants to have sold off their BTC for $1.40 when it's not entirely inconceivable it could be $200 down the road. Inflation, while evil at times, promotes spending IMHO - because if the BTC is sitting in your wallet it's depreciating. Downside is too much, and the BTC loses any sense of "worth" and that freezes the economy too. What's wrong with everyone holding onto it? |
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I think he believes that money must have "intrinsic value".
Why the dolar has been valued since 1972 then?
Because you are "forced" to use it. That's certainly a good argument on why money gains value. That doesn't mean it's the only way. |
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Right now there are a lot of technology geeks involved, so most people are capable. But if BitCoins were to spread to a more widestream appeal, most people wouldn't be able to safely keep track of their wallets.
You'd see the following things:
1) Trojans/viruses/exploits getting to the wallet file. If I understand correctly, this file is unencrypted, so anyone who takes this file can take control of your wallet.
2) People may lose their wallet. Their computer crashes, they accidentally delete it, etc... Bye bye Bitcoins forever.
3) People will encrypt stuff, but forget the password and screw themselves.
Anything else that you would expect a casual user to screw up?
Those two things are real deal breakers that I would recommend to people who were not computer geeks to NOT use BitCoins, just because they would be incapable of having a good experience with them almost all of the time.
Some people have said "fools and their money should be parted, so this parts them faster", but I disagree. We are the small minority and we cannot expect Joe Sixpack or Grandma to ever learn anything about computer security or backing up files. Even knowing what to do, it would be a lot nicer if it was done for me automatically.
As the market matures, these issues will be solved. But I would expect either an enhanced client for those types of users (clearly not a priority now), or some type of more centralized service for those types to keep from shooting themselves in the foot.
Are there any other common scenarios where someone would really shoot themselves in the foot?
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Is it rational to reward anti-social behavior?
If you never see the guy again/deal with him again, is there any rational reason to punish him? Punishing anti-social behavior is only worth the cost if you actually have to face the person again and deal with them. Or someone you know and care about does. And what makes it anti-social? |
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LOL...you knew someone was going to cite the Elliot wave. I think in reality, most people that are putting some money into bitcoins understand that it could collapse at any time and hence only put in what they're willing to lose. The flip side of that is that they're also not in any hurry to sell (and probably think bitcoins have enormous potential that far outweighs the risks of losing the small amount they've put in). In addition, you probably have new people discovering bitcoins that reach similar conclusions and want to build a position. And, at this early stage a wealthy individual or two that are willing to put a significant amount into bitcoins can really drive up the price (but it could fall just as quickly when they stop buying).
If people are concerned about collapse, they aren't buying bitcoins. They are buying gold, guns, toothpaste, etc... People buying bitcoins are gamboooling hoping it goes up 20x. |
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You sure about that? I thought vendors could accept any form of payment but were not allowed to refuse payments in dollars.
This is a weird idea. If I am not allowed to refuse dollars, I'll just demand a huge amount of them. For instance, I can ask a gram of gold for a stuff I sell, but $1,000 for that same stuff. Not quite. I'm not sure about American legislation, but since we're both French, I can tell you how it would work between you and I. Say you're looking to trade a pig. If you're willing to take my goat for it, then this is barter. In this case, this is a trade between individuals. On the other hand, if you're a vendor, you have to price the goods you put up for sale. There are two consequences to this: the price has to be made public, this means if I see a price tag on something in your store, I can legally purchase that good for that price, even if you messed up with the tag. Second consequence is that you can't refuse to sell anything priced in your store as long as I can meet your price in euros. I think there is something about 24h notice before a price change, so that you can't sell me something for €20 and ask €40 for it from the guy right next to me. Now I don't know about the US, that's why I'm asking about it. The US tends to avoid having a lot of silly laws like this. I saw that in Italy, you are not even allowed to legally barter for stuff. Everything had to be sold for a price. |
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