The problem with your "predictions" is that you give your self such a large range so you cant really be wrong. Your low end for block 139104 is 3.5% and your high end is 31.4%. The answer to that criticism is here: https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13339.msg384337#msg384337That 'range' as you call it is a probability distribution which indicates the amount of error, and the probability of that error as tested over the available history. The average deviation from the median forecast has been a mere 5.4% If you could please inform me of a methodology that performs better I will happily employ it. But the point is this. My methodology for forecasting the next re-target from pricing history has proven very reliable. And it happens to be in agreement with what is being asserted by OP. There honestly isn't any better way to predict it unless you can see the future but all but two of your predictions have been around 6% off or higher. His prediction was 13% so it could very easily be 7-8%. |
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The problem with your "predictions" is that you give your self such a large range so you cant really be wrong. Your low end for block 139104 is 3.5% and your high end is 31.4%. |
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Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.
5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.
its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.
That second quote (shivansps) was from 7 days into the session, not 5. Difficulty reset on 7/6. I never said anything about 7 days into the session. Last time, 5 days in, we didn't see much growth. You do realize though that my original point is still valid that its just luck. Who cares if it was 5 or 7 days into the same period. Stop making these stupid fucking posts. Yes the difficulty is increasing but this is luck. |
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Actually, I've been charting the difficulty the past several sessions.
5 days into the last difficulty we maxed out at 13.4 TH/s, with about 7.2 blocks per hour.
its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.
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Today we just jumped to 16 Thash/s. I know, everyone just got lucky; we really are holding steady at 11.5 Thash/s, and it's all just a glitch or a streak of awesome luck for everyone at once. Don't worry, not a single 5770 was actually added to the network.  You do realize people said the exact same thing before the last difficulty change. I can't remember what it specifically showed but it was close to 16Thash then as well. You need to just relax dude the difficulty is going to keep going up but this is definitely just luck again. |
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No cost wise it adds 70 dollars to your 280 dollar recertified psu! however at 450 watts each you could install 2 of those at 450w and a single 450-600w psu in the 100 dollar price range and then save 40 dollars which would make up the price difference between the 5770 and 5830
That's true I suppose but seems like it would make for a messy build. |
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The problem is the extra cost of that doesn't make 6 5830's better then 5 and a 5770 |
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Yea I'm not building anything right now but this theoretical machine would be slim with a low consuming cpu, 1 stick of ram and a flash drive. It would also use risers because I doubt you could keep 6 gpu's cool otherwise
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I'm not an expert at calculating watt requirements is it at all possible to fit 5x5830's and a 5770 in one server with a 1200 watt power supply? What about if they are overclocked? Will doing this destroy the life of any of the parts? Thanks in advanced  |
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oh lol my bad I thought he said 5830. That's my fault and I'm sorry for making the mistake. I just read it quickly and assumed he was talking about the 5830 since the thread is about the 5830
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I thought that was just a rumor? I may be wrong but I thought it was up to 8 on windows? |
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6950 @ 400mhash sounds a bit much
more like 375
fair enough but megahash per cost of server I'm pretty sure will still make it better then a 5830 @ 164 |
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if you don't mind waiting and willing to throw in some extra $$, just get 5850 from ncixus.com.
164, shipped to US.
not a bad deal.
That's a horrible deal and if you think it's good your retarded. 311/164=1.89 You could pick up a 6950 on newegg right now for 209 400/209=1.91 Also the 6950 saves 34% more electricity. i don't run my cards at stock speed. and electricity is not really an issue for me.  Those aren't stock speeds -_- |
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I honestly consider bitcoins a hobby and I wouldn't consider the 2 hours building the rig wasted. Also if you learned how to build the rig once it would drastically take down the build time for the next two. You could easily shave 2 hours off that time. Another thing to consider is you could build all 3 rigs at the same time and it would cut down on transition time between steps. I bet if you did all three at the same time it would take no longer then 3 hours.
I was estimating maybe 3hrs for the first attempt with the usual first time mistakes, then 2 and finally 1 so averaging 2/rig. But this really depends on the person's skills so we could both be right and wrong  I'd also like to point out build time for putting the pieces in the case and relocating the wires so it stays cool takes time too for the 3 gpu cases. There's 5 of them to put together as apposed to three so I bet it would take even the most skilled computer builder at least 2 hours to put together 5 computers.
Quite true, I overlooked this part also. Although around here, I usually order new systems assembled and it only costs about $10 extra. This makes the gap even larger again (too lazy to recalc the numbers) but I bet it would be closer to 15%
Agreed it's probably closer to 10~15% rather than our highest/lowest estimates. We're just nitpicking I think we can both agree a 5 rig set up is better then a 3 |
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if you don't mind waiting and willing to throw in some extra $$, just get 5850 from ncixus.com.
164, shipped to US.
not a bad deal.
That's a horrible deal and if you think it's good your retarded. 311/164=1.89 You could pick up a 6950 on newegg right now for 209 400/209=1.91 Also the 6950 saves 34% more electricity. |
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726*5 =$4356
1,206*3=$3618
That means the 3 gpu rig costs 20% more.
Not really fair when you pick different quality PSU for the rigs, especially a, IMO, lower quality & cheaper one for the 5 card setup. An equivalent Corsair 1200AX would cost another US$40 more, closing the gap by US$120. Also you're getting a required high end board only at $145 because of a special offer, which may not be valid tomorrow for all we know, so let's throw that in $50x3 difference. Since we're using risers here, no reasons why we cannot make use of 1x PCIe slots as well. Boards which have 3x PCIe slots of any variety are commonly available on Newegg for $100 or less. So that reduces the 5x rigs by $27 each or $135 difference. Now add in the time spent to purchase and assemble the open rig frame, say 2 hours average each at a labour cost of US$10/hr for $60 total. During that 6 hours, the 3-gpu rigs would had been mining away at some 4500~5000MH/s which could possibly net up to 1BTC, not a lot but if there was a lucky streak during that 6 hours, it could be more. Adjusted amounts would be US$4221 vs US$3948, ignoring possible gains from mining first, which is less than 7% difference  The 1200w psu I picked out isn't bad I mean I picked out an 80 plus gold and cooler masters isn't a bad company. The corsair for the 750w I chose is only 80 plus(not gold) so they may be different brands but they are both fine. I agree you could go cheaper with the the 5 gpu mobo I just chose that because it is the mobo I use. I honestly consider bitcoins a hobby and I wouldn't consider the 2 hours building the rig wasted. Also if you learned how to build the rig once it would drastically take down the build time for the next two. You could easily shave 2 hours off that time. Another thing to consider is you could build all 3 rigs at the same time and it would cut down on transition time between steps. I bet if you did all three at the same time it would take no longer then 3 hours. I'd also like to point out build time for putting the pieces in the case and relocating the wires so it stays cool takes time too for the 3 gpu cases. There's 5 of them to put together as apposed to three so I bet it would take even the most skilled computer builder at least 2 hours to put together 5 computers. This makes the gap even larger again (too lazy to recalc the numbers) but I bet it would be closer to 15% |
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As long as you have the equipment I'd assume it could take no more then an hour to build I have some previous experience with the tools not much though.
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Yes, there's resale value. If you had to resell any of it, as in the oft-quoted, "...and I'll have several PCs and graphics cards that I could always re-sell..." it would certainly be easier if it had a case. Barebones components such as Motherboard/Sempron combos are much harder to sell. For one thing, they only appeal to a small segment of the population --techies -- who tend to know about things like NewEgg and how they're wiser to spend $20 or $30 more for 3X the processing power I often wonder how well all these "mining rigs" people put together (myself included) are going to sell on Craigslist someday. Also, a case provides more protection against things like beverages, pets, children, and earthquakes. I agree resale for a case I just listed would be an absolute bitch but if you think you have to rely on the resale to make a profit then you shouldn't be investing in bitcoins. I also agree an open case like the one listed could be damaged easily but as long as you realize that then you should be able to use common sense and keep it in a safe location. |
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You can get 2x (58xx or 6xxx using a total of 300 watt PCIe power connector) and 2x5770 (150 watts of PCIe) cards into one case.
First 4 5830's always will beat a set up like this in megahash/(server cost) unless you get insane deals which I have never seen. Secondly I chose 3 because that was the amount argued. And when you get over the 3 box hump you can't realistically (unless you feel like spreading parts around on a large table or baking rack and filling the room with oscillating fans) put them in one location without looking like a degenerate that doesn't care about consistency and stability. If you read I said using the open case set up that rob linked to. This is still a case with a frame just completely open and spreads the cards out significantly. Here is the link since you didn't bother looking up a couple posts. http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=29729.04 cards per box is the best use of space when you're dealing with 3+ boxes. There's also the power distribution, networking cables, environment cooling and heat exhaust systems, and administrative work to consider. Having all of your gear in an orderly arrangement keeps you sane. I know a lot of people here love open cases but coming from a datacenter work environment it just makes me think you're playing with toys when you could be approaching it in a serious manner.
Again see the case I linked to above. |
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