I don't really disagree with your overall points tadamichi, yet I am a little bit bothered if we end up locking ourselves too much into assertions that bitcoin is like a currency and not like a stock.. because in several ways, based on bitcoin's unique design aspects, bitcoin is like a lot of asset classes all at once.  So, in that regard, bitcoin can be used like a currency, but there is already quite a bit of reluctance for bitcoin HODLers to use bitcoin like a currency in part based on the fact that it is the most sound of monies that the world has ever seen... so many people are going to become way more reluctant to spend it, when they may well have access to a lot of other monies that are less valuable and they can spend those less valuable monies (even assets) first.

So in some sense, there seems to be a kind of current built-in incentive status, that bitcoin HODLers are less likely to spend their bitcoin until after such a point that they either run out of the other kinds of monies/assets or they are so damned overly allocated in bitcoin that they have no disincentive to spend it because they have too much of it anyhow. It can take a while for bitcoin HODLers to get to the point in which they feel that they are overly allocated in bitcoin, especially if they are receiving cashflow/value from other kinds of asset classes/currencies - so they may well be inclined to spend those lower value assets./currencies first.

Personally, I don't have any real issues comparing bitcoin to stocks, even though it will tend towards a lot of misunderstandings if there are too many attempts to pigeonhole bitcoin into such a category - because in essence all stocks have a considerable amount of centralization, and so it could end up being way too misleading to be presuming bitcoin to be similar in those kinds of ways that HODLers/developers/miners have some kinds of control over bitcoin's issuance - and they do not.. it's almost as if Snowshow is wanting to imply that bitcoin has proof of stake attributions (similar to stocks) when it does not, so in that regard I agree with you tadamichi that getting too caught up in stock analogies will lead people to NOT understand the attributions of bitcoin very well.

I think that moderators care, but it surely seems that there is a certain number of posting/attribution "mishaps" that the moderators seem to allow without totally banning a member, including some abilities for the member (especially some of the newbies) to correct the "mishaps" - which surely may well go beyond the judgement/discretion of others who believe it would be better to take a harder stance against some of the matters that seem to be well into the territory of actual plagiarizing rather than a bunch of coincidental mishaps.

So, surely it can be irritating sometimes to see that some members seem to be getting away with shit that they should either not be getting away with or that the evidence seems strong enough that there seems to be some intentionality there.

I appreciate that some member are pointing out the various members who they believe to be NOT providing sufficient substantive materials/contributions, which has caused me to reflect upon my willingness to provide merits for mere links (and links with no commentary) especially from newbies... but sometimes even considering the merit-worthiness or the substantive contributions of contents of more senior members, too.

I do also sometimes merit some more senior (regular) members here, even though I find the post(s) to be lacking in substance and lacking in commentary and taken from other folks without adequate and clear attribution... .surely we can get away with more when we are just posting memes (without much if any words contained therein or the meme is already in a large number of places on the interwebs so it is clear that we are just reposting something that someone else made).. and so I do not necessarily expect attributions when memes are posted.. and the fewer the number of words on the meme, the safer it would be to post, even without attributions.. so it seems to me..... but when there are a lot of words within the memes, then sometimes it becomes a bit more ambiguous regarding whether there needs to be an attribution or a link regarding from where did that meme come and was there a specific author or institution who had created that content that seems to have some talking points contained therein... and maybe a source/link should be provided (if it is not already stated somewhere visibly embedded within the meme).

And with the memes containing words, sometimes, even when the author of the content is listed within the picture / meme, I become critical of other members (there could be times that I end up being guilty of similar transgressions?) for not providing a link that would help any of us to get directly to the content source because sometimes there might be a need to both verify that the source had really made such statement(s) and/or also that the context of the statement (talking about within a meme - or perhaps a tweet here) could be helpful in terms of understanding what was said before or after the earlier posting of the content and how others were responding to such content... so in that regard, even well-intended longer-term members here might end up providing content that is way too ambiguous, confusing and in need of clarification (maybe even misleading?) and getting to the context in which that content had been initially made might end up showing that the content may not have meant what the potentially well-intending member had thought that the content had meant.

If you read your post, can you see that you are writing in a way that is vague as fuck?

I believe that I understand that you are proclaiming that we are going back up.. and maybe even suggesting that the bottom might well be in (referring to our current bottom of $25,401 from May 12th)


No.  He did not say that.

You are



wwwwwwwwwrrrrrroooooooonnnnnnngggggggggggg!!!



again...



what else is new?



Probably the name Save the RF should = wrong.... at least more wrong than right...   

What's your track record Save the RF?  maybe about 90/10? 

or am I being too generous? 


I'm like that, sometimes. #justsaying  hahahahahahaha



Surely, we realize that guys at that level speak out of both sides of their mouths... .. gotta take them with a decently large-sized grain of salt.



Isn't it so funny that you are such an opposite indicator Save the RF... Remember the last 6 months or so (maybe a bit longer), you had been proclaiming that we are going to the moon.. blah blah blah..

and then in about the past two-three weeks you have been proclaiming that we are going to zero or some other random low number ($22k is it now?).... Just going by your baloney (not that you know much of anything worth knowing - even if the opposite), maybe the bottom is in?

You have a "great" track record in regards to the various alts that you have been pumping/shilling in these here parts too.. #justsaying...








NOT.


 

In the past day or so I have been reflecting on BTC's somewhat gradual movements towards the UPpity, and in that regard, I appreciate the above fairly-detailed (at least point by point @ dragonvslinux) attempts at rebutting some of the seeming "inevitably downity" talking-points that OgNasty had come out with - and surely it is not the first time that I had seen some forum members presenting a variety of points proclaiming very high odds to DOWNity that seem to be attempting to create the impression that down is inevitable - when many of us know that inevitability in bitcoin is far from something that any of us should be relying upon, even if it seems that various cards are being stacked against King Daddy.

It seems that even in a few of my earlier responsive posts (here's an example of one of them) I had conceded that the evidence of DOWNity was appearing quite strong based on the seemingly record number of Bitfinex longs that were shown on the chart linked therein.... so in that regard, I was starting to consider that it would be hard to go up if there were so many (an apparent record number of) leveraged longs on Bitfinex.....

I had not exactly been clear in my own ways to attempt to analyze the information, including whether such leverage longs were reflective across other exchanges or even counter-balanced by other factors.

I know that there was another point that I was considering that the BTC price could still go UPpity, in spite of leveraged longs because there are also incentives for some of the bullwhales to reck the bearwhales based on what is likely to be an ongoing existing practice of leverage (and likely non-backed - aka naked) shorts that they maintain through a variety of bitcoin futures products... and in that regard, it seems that some day, their reckoning is going to come.** 

**I touched upon that kind of reasoning in one of my earlier posts, here.


Both Greg Foss and Max Keiser talk about such a "Gamma" possibility in their recent Swann Bitcoin podcast, which I just understood as Bitcoin's potential explosive possibility to the UPside that could come at any time.

Perhaps the punchline that I am trying to make here ends up being that sometimes some Upward momentum might be helpful for bitcoin to break out of a pattern that had been looking quite dire, and surely we are not in any kind of inevitability for UPpity pattern either, yet whatever UPward movements we have seen so far should have shaken some of the confidence that guys might feel in regards to DOWNity being inevitable - and surely it was helpful for me to see dragonvslinux go through some of the arguments to counter OgNasty's DOWNity proclamations - and I am especially considering that the leveraged longs on Bitfinex do not seem to be deserving as much weight as I had been considering them to potentially have - even if I was understanding that information and those Bitfinuex charts correctly or not... especially the ones that I responded to empowering's earlier post on the topic.

Well, we are getting a bit of BTC price action, so that may well end up bringing all kinds of zombies (or even previously active WO participants) back to noticing and being noticed in these here parts.  

Hard to say if it will last, though.


I don't know the answer to your questions, but they do not seem like bad ones (double negative for anyone paying attention...  @sirazimuth, you troublemaker....  #justsaying).. I am thinking that there are better and more technical threads for those kinds of questions in the forum, though.  Maybe someone can point you in the right direction?

You fuck!!!!!



You ruined every thing.

 


I cited your post in order that members can see your chart/plottenings (without having to click on it).. and really what you are saying is both unclear, but also seems to be a wee bit premature.

Sure, the BTC price got up to $32,196 about 5 hours ago (as I type this post), yet there is hardly any need to be talking about Downity, yet.

In the past 5 hours, the lowest that the BTC price has gotten has been $31,436 (which is only about 2.5% from the top), and sure the BTC price could go lower, but the punchline is that the BTC price remains towards the top of the range that seems to be pushing up..so gosh, in these here parts we are used to coilings that can bounce around 5% or more from the top, and you are talking about a 2.5% pausening as if it were meaningful in the down direction..

You must be new here.. ..... wait..

 

The cat/kitten story has to do with insistently defending Lauda's reputation - especially after Lauda had already sent her fairwell message.  I am not unsympathetic towards defending Lauda - even though Nullius took such defenses to another level.

Regarding the new mindrust... I can see what you are saying... but something seems off about whether death_wish's situation would rise to that level.. and there seems to be a different kind of lesson that comes out of death_wish's situation as compared to mindrust's March 2020 situation.  

I would say that even though several of us were suggesting ways to attempt to cover his margin bets below $30k and perhaps down to $25k, it just seems too complicated to conclude that he did a mindrust - except his mindrust might have been when he set those kinds of dumbass margin orders in the first place, and death_wish did not tell us anything at the time that he had set the margin orders, but instead told that he was in a predicament when the train was about to hit him.. so a lot more difficult to know what could have reasonably have had been done to correct a situation that was already in a very precarious position by the time that the wall observer members found out about what kind of predicament he was in..  

It's similar advice that an attorney will give (or even an accountant) when a client comes to them like 6-12 months later than they should have come, and the train is about to hit them, and there is only so much that the attorney might be able to do at that time to either mitigate damages or to get the client out of a bad situation.  Surely a lot of people might realize that whatever situation that they are in is not a good one, and they know that they are dealing with a kind of dangerous fire that could end up exploding.. but they are in a kind of gambling situation. .hoping and praying that their bet will pay off.. but at some point it becomes quite clear that their bet is not paying off..

Even though you admit that you are NOT quite serious to actually carry out recommendations here, many of the parameters that you set forth do seem to be realistic - except trying to coordinate the pooling of resources through 5 guys.... so in that regard, there would likely need to be one or more of the participants (perhaps yourself) who would be willing to cover the expenses during periods in which you are searching for your 4th and/or 5th guys.. and maybe there could be times in which more of them could end up abandoning.  Even though I have lived in similar kinds of situations (like a group house), I understand that some of the ways for setting it up might be different from my own experiences and/or expectations.

Regarding the citizen status, you might not have to get citizen status.. maybe resident status.. but sure, it is good to explore if there might be some ways to stay in some locations for longer periods of time because the country happens to not have strict limitations or difficulties in acquiring citizenship/residency.


I look forward to hearing about your trip to Zimbabwe.. hahahahaha.. whether in this thread or if you create another one.

If a member here:

1) describes bitcoin's already existing price performance, then that would largely be an attempt to accurately describe history (or at least I would hope that the description would be attempted be accurate).

or

2) attempts to describe where the BTC price is at, and where s/he expects the BTC price to go that is an attempt to predict the future which should be based on probabilities rather than anything that is certain  - even though some factual outcomes are more probable than other outcomes.

Neither of those are lies if they either do not represent facts and attempt to fairly represent probabilities.

Bitcoin continues to serve as one of the best and greatest asymmetrical bets to the upside because it is widely available to vast swaths of society and there are still quite good odds for BTC price performance to play out positively both in terms of multiples of times current value/price and magnitudes of times current value/price.

Of course, we should be able to recognize and appreciate that on the shorter time horizons such as months to a few years, bitcoin's price has fluctuated quite greatly; however, historically it also appears that the longer that anyone has been in bitcoin, any investment that they have made has been able to compound upon itself so long at any investment strategy errored upon attempting to stay invested (aka HODL) and perhaps to continue to accumulate BTC.

Even though quite a bit of fear mongering continues to exist in the world, there is no real strong evidence showing that bitcoin's future is not likely to continue to be positive in ways similar to its history - even if the degree of the price/value increases are probably not going to be as exponential as they had been historically, merely because bitcoin's market cap is higher.. so a current market cap of $600 billion-ish might have a maxing out value around $1 quadrillion (which would be ONLY around 1,666x more upside).. and it could take a hell of a long time to get from here to there.. perhaps more than 100 years.. 

So we could have a lot of UPs and DOWNs along the way.. and not even guaranteeing that any 4-year period will be profitable - even though historically, so far, BTC prices have always been profitable on any 4-year timeline, but even though bitcoin is likely to continue to go up, there could be some periods of time that last 4 years or more in which the BTC price has not gone to new ATHs during that timeline.

We cannot ignore downside scenarios of bitcoin even going to zero or somewhere close to zero, but the Lindy effect does establish more and more confidence that the longer that bitcoin exists (tick tock next block every 10 minutes not failing) the more likely it is going to continue to exist and continue to build and to continue to serve as a powerful force, and bitcoin seems to already be there, including quite strong ongoing likelihoods of continuing to grow rather than shrinking in value... especially if we zoom out and consider timelines that are at least 4-10 years or more into the future.


You may be correct Snowshow, that revolution might not be an exactly accurate word choice; however it seems to me that we are in the early stages of what seems to the largest transfer of wealth in the history of man, facilitated by bitcoin.  There likely will be some violence along the way, but there does not have to be violence along the way... The defenders of the status quo powers that be, financial institutions and governments who believe that they might be able to stifle bitcoin through violence may well end up deploying some of those kinds of resources and tactics - but it can become difficult to war against bitcoin in terms of traditional mechanisms and could merely end up causing a lot of folks to just be more secretive with their BTC holdings - especially if they believe that they might end up getting targeted by no coiners and low coiners who failed/refused to prepare for the ongoing wealth transfer that is taking place under their noses.. when it seems that they can join in on the bitcoin system at any time that they want, but instead some of them will continue to believe that they can defend their wealth through traditional coercive means, such as violence.   None of us can really know how long the wealth transfer is going to take or to know how quickly some of the no coiners and low coiners are going to jump on board and show that they were precoiners all along... some of them are likely to be so stubborn that they are going to die as no coiners/low coiners, so if they have wealth that is transferred to their heirs, the heirs can choose not to suffer in the same kinds of negative ways as their stubborn predecessors.

So on an individual level, many folks should realize that they are best off to jump on the bitcoin train sooner rather than later.. but the choice remains in their hands because bitcoin is not coercive in traditional senses... .but only provides incentive mechanisms for people to join.. such as NGU technology.

Yeah.. Nullius., you dweeb.  You should have stuck to your more whimpy practices of buy and HODL...

Accordingly, king daddy already did punish you - but just coincidentally.. ... The truth of the matter is that King Daddy no give no shits about uie pooie, but you did end up getting caught on the wrong side of your own willingness to take more chances than you should have done.

For sure, I am not wishing badly upon you, but each of us should recognize that we do have tendencies to want to gamble more than we should.. so ongoingly, we have to be careful to tame our own inner demon.. and with bitcoin it seems that part of the practices to attempt to tame the inner demon is helped by basic dollar cost averaging (DCA) practices.. and of course, buying on dips and possibly lump sum investing...

But in the end, either fuck margin trading, or play around with that shit with so small of an amount of your total BTC portfolio that it will not matter very much to you if the BTC price goes in either direction... while at the same time, overall many of us realize that inevitably, BTC prices are going up so any of our BTC stacking practices should have a decent amount of overly-skewedness in the UPpity direction.

I agree those facts do seem problematic for the DOWNity projections.


MTGOX was having issues in 2011 regarding questions about their ability to stay solvent from the various hacks that they were experiencing..

And, prior to GOX shutting down in February 2014, there were ONLY few folks able to move any coins off of the exchange.

The FUD about GOX continued right from it's 2014 closing - yet I would imagine there were not really any concerns about dumping coins onto the market until at least 2015.. but then those feelings seem to have lapsed somewhat until early 2018 when the rumors (later admitted to be true) started surfacing that the trustee had been selling BTC during that early 2018 correction and that he might have caused the BTC price to come down to $6k on that first February 2018 correction..
In any event, your assertion that the dumping of GOX coins have many fallen  times been attributed to exaggerated single cause explanations regarding to what is happening or will be happening with the BTC price.


From the context it seems that you are referring to "crypto" in terms of non-bitcoin, and even if you are wanting a batslappening, we know that some of our current shitcoin purgenings might well end up contributing to some of that value flowing back into BTC, and really you seem to be describing that we could be experiencing some BTC price dynamics similar to the April to June 2019 BTC pumpening --- and it would be difficult to argue against that kind of current purgenings of shitcoins and to end up seeing some of that value flowing into bitcoin.. perhaps? perhaps?


Well.. in essence, it is difficult to blame those using the MTGOX services for how their situation ended up.  There were not a lot of options in the very beginning of GOX - such as 2010/2011.. and even if more exchanges were opening up, GOX had the appearance of the price / liquidity leader (even this thread referenced the GoX price in early 2013), and so after Gox closed in February 2014, we had several arguments in this thread regarding which exchange(s) should be used as our price and BTC dynamics reference points.

Your point that some folks were greedy was partially valid, but I doubt that we should either blame them or consider that they might not even had been acting somewhat reasonably with the context immediately before the MTGOX's closure.. In essence it took a while to figure out that coins/dollars were going in, but they largely were not coming back out.. while at the same time, there were some successful withdrawals a and also assertions (even from then credible persons like Roger Ver) proclaiming that GOX was completely solvent and there was no need to worry about the SAFUness status of the funds.. (am I mixing metaphores?... hahahahah).



Wow...

Holy fucking shit.

Macadonian points out a way to attempt to view the world positively which also points to a possible way to carve out benefits in a world with issues...

You, elliottflz65, figured out a way to complain that we are not there yet.

Even with bitcoin, there are probably going to continue to exist a lot of unfairnesses and injustices in the world, so each of us surely have choices regarding both how we are going to perceive the world and also if we are going to attempt to take some actions to put us on a path that has better chances to NOT get fucked as much.. if that is even possible.

It seems to me that bitcoin provides way more hope .. even if "we might not be there," yet. 

I have no problem to try  to engage in some actions to try to fix injustices in the world, yet it seems to me that taking a position in bitcoin is going to at least provide some of us (who are able to identify some positive aspects in bitcoin) to be able to at least attempt to arm ourselves with resources and tools - otherwise, what are we going to do?  just complain?  jump off a bridge? or engage in some kind of a hate act towards others because we feel fucked?  Seems that it would be a better course forward to attempt to identify ways to exist, have options and maybe to be able to contribute in some kinds of ways.. rather than just whining that there are injustices in the world.. a world that is likely going to always retain some injustices, even if we might achieve some kumbaya improvements through our ability to see bitcoin and to potentially be able to participate in bitcoin.. since we are still lucky enough to be alive (some folks with more energy and fewer disabilities than others), and that seems to have been the point that Macadonian was making.


Yes there was a cite in which you could bet on getting your coins back or not (sell them to someone else for 1/5 the BTC price and of course some variance), and that shit really ended up imploding once it became clear that Gox was not going to open back up and it became clear that the proposition for the Gox recovery cite had become clear in regards to GOX was not opening back up.


I try.



Good luck with your bet against bitcoin.. you are likely going to need it.

I imagine that you have already accounted for bitcoin being a bearer instrument, and it is much easier to take possession of bitcoin as compared with other assets, including gold.

Sure, the fucktwat financial manipulators are both going to try to manipulate bitcoin into the ground, and some of them are actually going to believe that they can do it.

Time will tell if the manipulators are going to be as successful as you (DieJohnny)  presume them capable of being.

I suppose there is a fair point to be made regarding what is a millionaire in terms of the frame of reference, and also how much money does any person need in their particular country to be able to be assured that they have reached fuck you status - or whatever might happen to be their goal.. to feel some higher degree of financial comfort/security.

For example, frequently we would use the term fuck you status to suggest that there is no longer any need to work for anyone else or even to have to work at all, so in that sense if there continues to be work, then the work remains a lot more optional than having something like a job in which you have to report on a daily basis and rules are largely created by your employer.

The circumstance in which any person is going to measure there financial freedom is going to vary - and of course, in a forum like this we frequently will refer back to the dollar in order to attempt to have some kind of a common reference point.. so in that regard, it is understandable that there might be some difficulties in grasping how many dollars might be needed to live comfortably in some other location, but also if any of us might become dependent on earning money in some other location (rather than just consuming) then we would have to account for those circumstances too... even though surely, it is helpful to attempt to get some kind of comparative reference in regards to how the majority of people in any given country might be living in order to attempt to figure out whether we might try to live there (even if just temporarily).


I speculate that you should be able to figure out for yourself how much you need to live, how much you would prefer to have and how you anticipate the future to change (or stay the same) in such a way that you would be able to project what is "millionaire status" for you.

I doubt that it matters very much whether I believe that you are able to live "on peanuts" or not because you are the one that would need to carry out such calculations regarding whether you would like to continue to live within the amount that you are already accustomed to spending or if there might be some plausible way to increase your standard and if that would even be worth it to you to even attempt to increase your standards.

For more than 20 years, I have been using an Excel spreadsheet to project my cashflow, and surely with practice, I have gotten more sophisticated in terms of how I project ahead and to consider how much I might need based on different circumstances that I might face.  Of course, living in western areas tends to be more expensive, but there are pockets of more affordability too.  There is a also a lot of savings that might come in terms of moving to either a low cost location within the same country or going to another country - but at the same time, if there is a lot of moving around, then the expense of travel and relocation should be accounted, too... including the extent to which replacement goods might need to be purchased, so for sure, there can be a lot of savings by not having to replace goods that you already have and are using.

Anyhow, it seems that part of my point would be that you should be able to figure out some ballpark ideas regarding how much you need based on your circumstances, and then to be able to attempt to project out how long it would take to get there (with better case and worser case scenarios contained therein).  I am not even proclaiming that any of the projection matters would be clearly established, but you should be able to get some ideas including attempting to account for changes in the cost of living or even a variety of circumstances that you could end up confronting.. and maybe try to plot out the more likely scenarios first, and then maybe attempt to plot out ways that you might want to improve the projections (if that were to be one of your goals?).


Nothing wrong with wanting to stay connected with your family.



Surely, it is good if you are identifying steps that you can take to improve your options and also making on going progress in terms of various actions that you are taking.. and surely, I understand that frequently, there will be less clarity if you are not sure about which kinds of job opportunities that you might end up entering into and if some of those jobs end up helping you to get to another level or if you might end up getting limited in your jobs.. so in some sense, it can be difficult to project when some of the variables are not known.


Of course 4% is a standard projection that is made, but of course, if you get 20-30 years of investing under your belt, you should be able to better project how much you believe that you will be able to continue to earn.  Bitcoin should be helpful to any long term investment portfolio, and of course there can also be uncertainties in terms of any investment portfolio.. so when you are building your portfolio you would likely be trying to balance out growth and security of your principle.. and when you are in your earlier years of investing, you likely want to emphasize growth, but you still need to be careful not to put too much of your principle at risk .. or at least understand and appreciate the trade offs when taking those kinds of risks.. and you could end up staying poor forever, if you are gambling with your principle all the time - even though I understand that there are also examples of folks who got rich because they put a lot of their principle at risk..

I have never considered putting a lot of principle at risk to be a good investment approach.. and surely people are going to vary in terms of their risk tolerances, too... but they are also going to vary in their other circumstances too, such as access to capital and also skills, abilities and even their age could be a factor in terms of having time to recover if they fuck up.. that is if they are willing to take chances that they might be more able to do when they are younger rather than when they get older if they have never really built anything, then they might not be in a position to continue to take chances, even though some older people think they are too late, so they take risks hoping to make up for their earlier fuck ups.

It looks like $30,265 or higher will make this week's candle green.. and that is about 10.5 hours from the time of this post... Only about $900 - currently... clearly within reach.. Yet? 

I am not sure if it really matters either way.. especially if the BTC price is within a $1k to $2k range of it, no?    But on the other hand, as I type this post I am starting to speculate that if the BTC price were to be $2k to the upside, that would make a difference in terms of making many of us "bag holders" feel MOAR better, no?


I had been thinking about these leveraged longs recently, and surely they seem to be an obstacle towards the BTC price going up, but I am starting to consider that they still might not be a deal-breaker...   There could be so much money to make in terms of the various fuck twats who are playing the futures game, that the BTC price could end up recking those shorting fuckers prior to recking the longs..   

My point remains that there is no guarantee, even if you are putting so much emphasis upon DOWNity in your various recent posts.. as if it were a certainty.. or as if you were wishing for the predictions in your post to come true.. as if you may well be a bit desperate yourself rather than really attempting to grapple with the ongoing possibility that the price is able to break in either direction, even when it appears stacked to break down, it could well  still end up doing the opposite of what you believe it is going to do. Would that be a first in bitcoinlandia?  or not?

I am still having some difficulties with the ways that you are phrasing some of this.  I also feel that I am starting to get a wee bit overly repetitive...Some repetition is expected.

First, level of confidence. I doubt that many of us consider bitcoin's UPwards price performance as any kind of guarantee that it will happen.. even if we have decently high levels of confidence that bitcoin is amongst the bests of asymmetric bets to the upside.

Second how others feel.  I doubt that the gist of the message would be that other people think that you are dumb, but there likely is some concerns regarding how you had been expressing your level of confidence in such a way that you were considering yourself to have had entered bitcoin at a good price.. which for sure, seems to be a correct consideration (that you in fact had entered BTC at an already good price).. but even if you entered at a great place, you should not have expected that you would have been (or should have been) guaranteed to ONLY get upside.. but still you had made a good entry, even if the BTC price ended up coming back down to prices that were lower than your entry point... so in some sense, others might be considering that you are ONLY whining for the sake of whining be cause you made a pretty good entry point, and even that your entry point and way of playing the whole matter, so far is much better than what they had done.. so there would be frustration regarding why you should be complaining about such a thing..

Third what others say:  It's likely best to attempt to NOT get emotional regarding what others say about you (especially true on the interwebs), and you gather whatever information (if any) from what they say, but put it into perspective that almost anything people say is going to lack tailoring to both your actual individual financial and psychological circumstances.. even if we might account for some of your representations of those financial and psychological circumstances.  Regarding psychological circumstances, we may also expect that you need to attempt to get a grasp on those matters yourself because there is ONLY so much help that any of us can do in terms of figuring out the balance - so in that regard, there may well be seeming insensitivities towards trying to figure out or to balance your psychological circumstances.. which are surely relevant, yet you are ultimately the judge regarding how to balance those kinds of matters in a way that you believe is fitting for you.

For example, right when I am writing this post, I am a bit preoccupied with another topic in the real world.. so my attention is not very focused, but I am still attempting to respond, and so when I am writing I may well have forgotten what I had already written in previous posts (and in this post), whether I expressed it very well and I might not even be able to remember what you said previously.  Plus the feeling of repetition and not being able to recall if I already said that, and if there might be a better way of saying it... which ultimately leads to some lack of clarity in either what was written or what was meant.

I recognize that a lot of people proclaim that with bitcoin, you can set it and forget it - but I believe that setting and forgetting is way easier in the case that you either invest a relatively small amount from the start.. 1% to 5% of your total investment portfolio might be able to qualify as a "relatively small amount.."  or maybe if you set a relatively small amount of a DCA amount, then you may well be able to detach yourself, somewhat, emotionally from the fact that the investment could go to zero.

All the signs seems to be that you way over-invested.. and you did it in a kind of lump sum investment kind of a way.. .. so once you do that. and you recognize that you overinvested, it can be really difficult to suggest what to do... one thing is the shave off some of the value at various pointes as the price is going UP.. .. and sure of course, frequently you might well be able to overcome your feelings that you invested too much when the prices are up.. because at that point you are relieved that you did the right thing.

Another way could be to do some variation of what you indicated that you were planning on doing which is to just continue to invest small amounts on a regular basis and to continue to invest a certain amount of time ongoingly learning about your investment in order to maybe consider if your views are changed from your learning or maybe it could cause you to tweak your strategy which might even mean getting out if there is some kind of problem with what you had previously believed about bitcoin.   To the contrary, it seems to me that an overwhelming majority of people become way the fuck more bullish (and confident) about bitcoin if they actually spend more time  actually learning about bitcoin.. and I am not talking about learning about the distracting and frequently misleading shitcoin bullshit and presuming that you are indirectly learning about bitcoin, blah blah blah.

Surely, a few members who had responded to you had already stated that the buck stops with you.. and you are the one who has to ultimately be comfortable with what you had done and also whether there might be any tweaks to your strategy that you might need to make...   we could be telling you all kinds of wrong facts and giving you bad logic.. .. and in the end.. the buck stops with you and you are the one who is completely responsible for if you fucked up.. or failed/refused to invest in a way that sufficiently and adequately accounts for your own psychological and financial particulars... that includes considering your cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.



For sure in bitcoin we could get a 50% drop, and then another 50% drop and then another 50% drop which would put us at about a 87.5% drop in total... and still end up recovering way beyond where we started.. and even the earlier 87.5% drop might not have taken us lower than we had been 4 years previously.


I agree with your overall idea of zooming out, yet there should be ways to still be able to regularly monitor aspects of your investment, including that it might be 87% in the red and still NOT necessarily cause you to panic or even cause psychological problems if you had already prepared yourself for the potential of those kinds of drops.

Even for me, in late 2014 and even parts of 2015, BTC prices had reached close to 90% drops, it seems that some of my ongoing buying had ONLY gotten the value of my BTC to the maximum of 64% depreciated (meaning valued at 36% of the amount that I had put in).  I was somewhat bothered, and I continued to DCA.. but in essence I had invested most of my extra cash already, so my cashflow and injection amounts were not going to be as much during that time period (I was also having some other somewhat non-related cashflow issues too, at that time).

Of course there are a variety of personality (and circumstantial differences) between people, yet I have always found a decent amount of value in regularly monitoring various aspects of what I am doing and if there might be some things that I am going to be able to do.. (which also might include monthly reports but also even looking on shorter timelines, too.. and sure many times with bitcoin there will be value in zooming out, but if my investment timeline is not very long, my own investment data is not long enough to actually see very much of value - except maybe just ongoing downity)  but of course, if there might be periods in which I might not have more money to inject or anything that I feel that I can do until either my cashflow improves or maybe until the BTC price recovers a bit, then like you suggest,  I may well be in a better position to just focus on other things in life for a while until my situation might have changed or the price of BTC might have changed that would allow me to actually be able to do something other than what I might have already had set in place (if that might be a regular DCA amount or something like that). 

What's your timeline for becoming a millionaire?

Generally speaking, if you have around a million dollars in your investment portfolio, then presumably you should be able to draw upon that at about a 4% per year rate (which is $40k per year and $3,333 per month) and to largely be able to continue with that amount of withdrawal in a near perpetual manner (theorist presume 30 years, but I suppose it depends upon how you assess its value and if you really can get your portfolio to earn more income than your withdrawal rate).

Of course, if we are talking about being able to live off of $300 per week, then our numbers are ONLY about 36% of the millionaire amount - which largely should mean that we should be able to generate $300 per week from ONLY $360k of an investment portfolio... presuming a 4% withdrawal rate... and hopefully a way of investing that generates at least more than 4% per year on average.

Maybe there are times when either I misspeak or I fail to adequately communicate my intended message?

For sure, through the years, you (sirazimuth) should have noticed a kind of pattern in which it should appear that I am less bothered by the actual existence of crypto currencies or that such term is used from time to time.   I don't even presume a world in which shitcoins do not exist.. so in that regard, I am in agreement with your assertion that they are likely always going to play some kind of a role that may be confused for bitcoin roles - nonetheless that the fact that shitcoins are always likely to exist does not justify speaking in goobledy-gook speaking ways about them and verbally/conceptually mixing them up with our savior, king daddy.

I might be inaccurate in my own self-assessment, but it seems to me that I tend to be more bothered by ambiguities and generalities in the way subjects related to bitcoin are discussed, especially if some of us might be trying to figure if some other topic might be being discussed or is the discussed subject matter somehow related to bitcoin.

I am not going to want to allow for excuses of speakers who try to get out of clearly presenting ideas merely because "everyone else is" talking that way and/or using those kinds of vague references.  

In my thinking, even billionaires should not be allowed to get away with such vagueness in their references... but still it seems that it would likely not be easy to coral the language that billionaires choose to use.  They are likely constantly surrounded by a lot of yes men.

When a billionaire speaks with such vagueness, I tend to speculate that such billionaire may well be engaging in such obscure speech practices on purpose.. How do you get to be a billionaire without knowing how to speak clearly about potentially complicated or BIG picture things?  

I suppose that it is possible that some of the billionaires do not really know the difference between bitcoin and crypto or maybe they are being vague because they have not exactly solidified their plans in respect to bitcoin/crypto, yet?  Give the poor fellas some benefit of the doubt, right?

Maybe another reason that I get frustrated by vagueness is that it quite likely causes confusion with normies and/or misleads a large number of normies.. and sure, we cannot necessarily expect billionaires to want to communicate clearly to normies, right?   Blame the billionaire or blame the person doing the interview for failing to seek clarifications.  The interviewer might be too star struck to interrupt or seek clarification or even worried that they might offend or lose access to such billionaire.  


That's pretty vague.

Any of us could keel over at any minute.

At least Philip gave us an outline of probabilities regarding the number of years that he might have left.


Yeah, of course, we know that the purchasing power of the dollar is going to continue to devalue, and that's why it is better to attempt to be more concrete in terms of pegging the matter (get your mind out of the gutter).... that is perhaps talking in terms of todays dollars..

For sure, nothing is exactly guaranteed, and bitcoin itself remains a bit of a moving target.. but I still think that it would be fair to suggest that bitcoin had around a $9k value for 2018 through 2020 (even though we know that in reality we could have gotten BTC for quite a bit lower prices during that time), but even if we are generous and we suggest that our jumping off  BTC price was around $9k for that period.  We still know that we are in a way better place than anyone else by having had accumulated BTC and held BTC.. and hopefully we I did not have to spend too much of it in the past couple of years.. so our purchasing power has somewhat been preserved during that time...

Some folks in equities might have done o.k in terms of possibly maintaining or not losing too much of their purchasing power (but even that is a bit questionable, now)... and those in pure cash got really clobbered during that time, even if they were with the strongest of the fiats (the dollar)..  

The closest comparison might have been real property.. but surely property does not tend to be very liquid and it surely has a lot of possible expenses to maintain it, too.

I suppose in the end, I am not really arguing with you.. just want to supplement what you said, even while tempted to slap you just for (funzies and) your seemingly ongoingly intentional flippantness.      

The overall point of possibly "coming around to crypto" may well be fair.. but the video is a bit cringe-worthy to get through.. with some of the seeming confusing language contained therein - which causes me to question if Griffin really knows what is "crypto"... I don't have too many clues about what is crypto either, but at least the video did use the word bitcoin in a few spots.. but still Griffin tends to speak in pretty damned broad generalizations.. perhaps he has some smarter folks on his team.. but I am having my doubts, otherwise they should have already helped him to fix his language a wee bit moar better -be e some ofthe guys are having some trouble actually using the word bitcoin.. so that might be part of their blockage in their really communicating something meaningful besides some vagueries in regards to FOMO regrets.. .. and the channel referring to Warren Buffet or Mark Cuban as evidence of folks "coming around to 'crypto " hardly inspires me.

JJG loves you too.. #nohomo.


I had to put that one in the third person.. just to be MOAR safer.



You don't really seem to be saying anything new..

Guys (and gal) in this thread have made those kinds of claims for years.

1) BTC volatility is inevitable.. especially in the short to medium term and probably a good 10-20 years into the future, minimum.

2) BTC's volatility is likely to decrease as it's market cap gets higher -

3) - overlapping of 1) & 2), as bitcoin grows, there will be BIGGER and BIGGER players coming into the bitcoin scene with more money and more financial instruments to push the BTC price around, but still net over net volatility will continue for a long time - as suggested by 1), even if BTC's market cap is increasing.. but at the same time, the volatility will still decrease over time because the market cap is increasing - as suggested by 2).

You should know better than to ask such a naive question.

Are you trying to get your ass beat on purpose?

#justasking

Sure, it is possible that the bottom is already in, but it is just a matter of probabilities in regards to is the bottom in and then the other part of the question would be what are the odds that it will take longer to reach the bottom and therefore will we get a bottom in 2 weeks or will it take 3-6 months or even the more pessimistic scenarios of 1 to 2 years.  

It's not like anyone has the answer to those questions at this particular time, even though some folks have theories, and some folks might have some better ways of assigning probabilities than others to both the degree of the dip and the timeline that it will take to get to the lowest amount... but even the best (and smartest of theories) are not going to know the answers with any level of certainty, but instead be able to set themselves up in such a way that they are prepared for either direction.. or both directions, as some folks like to express the matter.

Also, if you are not being realistic in your actual assignment of probabilities and preparing for both directions, then you are likely going to end up getting screwed because you are gambling too much with what should mostly be treating as a long term investment and an investment on what appears to be one of the strongest asymmetric bets to the upside that we have ever had (as normies / regular peeps).. in terms of being available to anyone and everyone.. enemies and/or friends.. rich and poor... individuals and institutions.. governments and financial institutions... and maybe other categories that I forgot.  Aliens and bots too, perhaps?  Oh that's where you come into the picture, Save the RF.  hahahaha

Snap out of it.  Snap the fuck out of it Save the RF.. before you get a slappening.





#nohomo