Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

You need to be able to pay an LN invoice to join.

GTFO of here with this stupid shit.

[Biodom]

Did you know that? I am a SHRIMP  
How many Humpback and Whales are in WO. I don't think anyone wants to reveal it. xD.



Source: Pinterest

As i mentioned before, this analogy is total BS.
It was funny in 2013, but not anymore.
Why?
Because there are 515000 whales in the world (80000 humpbacks, 10000-25000 blue whales).
Compare this to bitcoin distribution:
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

According to the data in the table,

"Whale" is about 5-20 BTC (significantly less than 100).
20-100 BTC is a "humpback whale"
100-1000 BTC are 'Blue whales', the largest animals on earth (which are 10-25 thou in number)
above 1000-only about 2200 wallets in total (maybe Shai Hulud from "Dune"-there is NO largest animal on earth that is so rare).
Of course, this is based on the wallet size only and people could have more than one large wallet too.

Proposed New categories for the largest:

30-100 BTC "Whale" $1mil-$3mil currently (mostly corresponding to "humpback whale" in numbers). Regular whale could be as little as 5 btc if you compare numbers, but let's be conservative.
100-1000 BTC "Blue whale" $3-30mil currently.
1000-1mil BTC "Shai Hulud" $30mil-$3bil

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[Blah Blah Blah : whine... -SnIp-]

P.S. - sorry, y'all, that I crashed the market by making Bitcoin angry.

Bitcoin, please forgive me.

Asshole!
Made me buy more cheap Sats![/>]

If my wit were beloved by the type of granola-munching cope-expert who does online “wellness checks”—with twit-style hashtags, no less!—then I would declare my whole life an irredeemable failure.  (Are you vegan, by any chance?  Did you vote for Biden?  Well, it would make as much sense as your theory that the CCP controls “all major media outlets”.)

On the other hand, perhaps I shouldn’t be so hard on you.  You are new at this:  You have only been in Bitcoin since 2020–2021, according to your first post.  Perhaps by now, you may even have even learned to stop camelcasing “BitCoin”—it’s what Mike Hearn used to do, it’s what Craig Wright does now, and it’s offensive to Bitcoin.  Lest thou bring down hellfire and red candlesticks on us all, thou shalt not anger divine Bitcoin by so blaspheming its sacred name!

“Max pain”:  Get used to it, and live up to your name by coping with your newbie-tier DCA before you accuse me of “whining”.  

OK, now I'm getting scared.
For the first time in many many months price goes below my DCA and the local Llama spots out this???
Is this what they were talking about as "Max Pain?"

I'm gonna cry...

Why?  What pain is in it for you?

If your coins are safely in your wallet where they belong, why do you even care if BTC at rest dips below your DCA during the type of perfect storm of a flock of black swans that we have seen in the past month?  You only started buying BTC quite recently—and you apparently started buying in 2021, a bull year!  Your DCA is inevitably way too high to worry about dipping below it, unless you like gambling about being lucky enough to time a local bottom with a first-time chunk buy.

If you use Bitcoin as money, as well you should, then that may be a potential reason for some pain:  The BTC is in motion, not at rest, and its value right now does affect you.  Solution:  Develop a strategy for budgeting and scheduling your money-flow around Bitcoin volatility.  It is not always feasible.  It is especially infeasible for many types of business, which is one reason why we do need some type of a stablecoin; anyone who contradicts that is a navel-gazing ignoramus with no inkling of business realities.  But with prudence and foresight, it can often be done just fine for personal finances.  (I will not speak further of this now:  I code, and I don’t want to spill the beans on potential future products.)

So as for “pain”.

You should only get scared if you have been through at least one order-of-magnitude BTC increase, and then it crashes below your DCA—oh, that would be scary!

You should only^* cry if 1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.  That would mean either that the laws of mathematics have been repealed—or that the Bitcoin blockchain has been usurped by Do Kwon, who just made 1 LUNA ≠ 1 LUNA by centralized executive fiat.

^* Or, you should cry if you play stupid games with margin, and you thus lose BTC that had a DCA so low, it will never again come anywhere within even a zillion light years of that unless Bitcoin is really, truly dead.

I have been crying a lot, lately.  It is inevitable that I must suffer many weeping fits, and probably years of recurring nightmares.  Divine Bitcoin has damned me to this, as condign punishment for my sins.

FYI, in July 2021, I didn’t even know when it dipped below $30k; and if I had been paying attention to the market, I would have been laughing at all the n00bs who were crying.  Then, I was righteous and blessed in the sight of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, please forgive me.

Yeah.. Nullius., you dweeb.  You should have stuck to your more whimpy practices of buy and HODL...

Accordingly, king daddy already did punish you - but just coincidentally.. ... The truth of the matter is that King Daddy no give no shits about uie pooie, but you did end up getting caught on the wrong side of your own willingness to take more chances than you should have done.

For sure, I am not wishing badly upon you, but each of us should recognize that we do have tendencies to want to gamble more than we should.. so ongoingly, we have to be careful to tame our own inner demon.. and with bitcoin it seems that part of the practices to attempt to tame the inner demon is helped by basic dollar cost averaging (DCA) practices.. and of course, buying on dips and possibly lump sum investing...

But in the end, either fuck margin trading, or play around with that shit with so small of an amount of your total BTC portfolio that it will not matter very much to you if the BTC price goes in either direction... while at the same time, overall many of us realize that inevitably, BTC prices are going up so any of our BTC stacking practices should have a decent amount of overly-skewedness in the UPpity direction.

[philipma1957]

You need to be able to pay an LN invoice to join.

GTFO of here with this stupid shit.

Thank you

[sirazimuth]

....

Yeah.. Nullius., you dweeb.  ....

Good ole Professor Nully has returned to bless us with his blah blah blah blah  <big yawn>

I wonder If he's still all bummed out about that cat thingy...

[Biodom]

A nice dose of long term hopium from the guy who has 77% of his non-equity in btc and 80% of equity in one stock (Tesla). Talking about a concentrated equity position:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IicMOgLn9Bk

Personally, I have an investment rule now (after the 2001-2002 fiasco) that I NEVER invest more than 20% of my capital in anything.
However, I don't re-balance my winners, like bitcoin.

TL;DR The guy says that his 2030 "bearish" scenario is about $514-576K/btc, middle-about $785K-1.55 mil, most bullish- $3.5 mil

[dragonvslinux]

We can finally see some green! Well, this was predictable after 9 (10?) weeks of red. Not a real pump yet, but hopefully we'll see some $32-33k soon.  

So, is this a:

* relief rally to $38-42k?
* mighty bull starting back to ATH?
* weak dead cat bounce to $30-32k with moar pain following?

I'd go for option 1. A relief rally to ~$40K levels with good potential for ~$30K levels to hold therefore. Notably once Bitcoin leaves <30 RSI "oversold" levels on Weekly time-frame, it doesn't return thereafter. Even with price often returning to similar closing price levels shortly after (so in this case around $29.5K), price historically has never made a new low after leaving these oversold conditions. For what that's worth.

Either the above or option 3, with a bit more downside in the following weeks to the anticipated 200 Week MA @ $22K. But this seems overly-anticipated right now imo. I otherwise don't think there's any real resistance between $32K and $40K levels. $34K would have been the theoretical resistance, but given it didn't act as support on the most recent way down, I doubt it would be resistance on the way back up either.

Despite thinking the bottom is either in, or close to it, I don't see a bull market this year at all. More likely consolidation between $30K and $60K. Similar to in 2019 when Bitcoin went from $3.2K to $14K and most were convinced that the bull market had started, until price re-tested $4K levels. Even ignoring that covid crash, price still took a year to consolidate back to the $10K levels, and had already dropped by 50%.

Think I mentioned it before but wouldn't be surprised to see price return to $50K to $60K by summer, before re-testing $30K again by the end of the year, maybe the 200 Week MA will be around this price by then. This is mainly due to Weekly moving average bearish cross-over which Bitcoin has always been very respectful of, ie showing that price is moving up too fast after a drop and needs more time to consolidate.

Also will give all the noobs the opportunity to buy high again after selling low, before price drops upto 50% and the bull market starts up again. Ie the usual recipe for another uptrend.

[Biodom]

We can finally see some green! Well, this was predictable after 9 (10?) weeks of red. Not a real pump yet, but hopefully we'll see some $32-33k soon.  

So, is this a:

* relief rally to $38-42k?
* mighty bull starting back to ATH?
* weak dead cat bounce to $30-32k with moar pain following?

I'd go for option 1. A relief rally to ~$40K levels with good potential for ~$30K levels to hold therefore. Notably once Bitcoin leaves <30 RSI "oversold" levels on Weekly time-frame, it doesn't return thereafter. Even with price often returning to similar closing price levels shortly after (so in this case around $29.5K), price historically has never made a new low after leaving these oversold conditions. For what that's worth.

Either the above or option 3, with a bit more downside in the following weeks to the anticipated 200 Week MA @ $22K. But this seems overly-anticipated right now imo. I otherwise don't think there's any real resistance between $32K and $40K levels. $34K would have been the theoretical resistance, but given it didn't act as support on the most recent way down, I doubt it would be resistance on the way back up either.

Despite thinking the bottom is either in, or close to it, I don't see a bull market this year at all. More likely consolidation between $30K and $60K. Similar to in 2019 when Bitcoin went from $3.2K to $14K and most were convinced that the bull market had started, until price re-tested $4K levels. Even ignoring that covid crash, price still took a year to consolidate back to the $10K levels, and had already dropped by 50%.

Think I mentioned it before but wouldn't be surprised to see price return to $50K to $60K by summer, before re-testing $30K again by the end of the year, maybe the 200 Week MA will be around this price by then. This is mainly due to Weekly moving average bearish cross-over which Bitcoin has always been very respectful of, ie showing that price is moving up too fast after a drop and needs more time to consolidate.

Also will give all the noobs the opportunity to buy high again after selling low, before price drops upto 50% and the bull market starts up again. Ie the usual recipe for another uptrend.

Great analysis. I also expect a bounce (could be to the middle of 30K-60K range or even up to 50K or slightly above as you mentioned), but then consolidation to the $30K (or slightly below) area. I might even trade some for the first time since 2017, essentially.

EDIT: I am surprised that we already moved to RSI(14)=46 (from 23 on May 11) with so little price improvement.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

OT:


https://news.sky.com/story/mona-lisa-attacked-with-cake-by-man-dressed-as-old-lady-in-wheelchair-12624074

[El duderino_]

share this url

[shahzadafzal]

....
Yeah.. Nullius., you dweeb.  ....

Good ole Professor Nully has returned to bless us with his blah blah blah blah  <big yawn>

I wonder If he's still all bummed out about that cat thingy...

nullius… I loved reading this guy. I think he will be back after BTC cross $100k.

[danadc]

Apparently BTC's performance has given a good sign of raising the price (I hope it is so) and give more signs of continuing to rise, however the whales have absorbed the BTC that was dumped by some directions:

It appears the whale accumulation at lower price levels supported BTC’s ongoing rally. It also looks like most of the addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC were expecting the price to dip further. Despite the nature of the market events, the token did not register a major move on the metrics. Hence, the short-term performance of the king token still remains a mystery.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-btc-pricing-model-has-this-to-say-about-its-short-term-prospects/

The short -term trend will always be a mystery, I think it is difficult to determine it, so far to rely with this type of analysis is a good hope.

[eXPHorizon]

[Farmer Bill]

Any OG Bitcoiners want to join Bitcoin Perma Bulls Telegram group. No shitcoins, good memes, Bitcoin ONLY. You need to be able to pay an LN invoice to join.

http://t.me/bitcoinpermabulls

Stay locked in your little echo chamber, no discussion, too may rules even if its just one. FFS you need to be able to pay a fucking LN invoice, what sort of crap qualification is that.

I love to hear from Proudhon, a most welcome and sarcastic perma bear, plus all the other individuals love them or hate them who make this place special, even fucking cryptotourist and the 3 coin beggar.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

....

Yeah.. Nullius., you dweeb.  ....

Good ole Professor Nully has returned to bless us with his blah blah blah blah  <big yawn>

I wonder If he's still all bummed out about that cat thingy...

Hmm, still didn't get that kitty story, though it's not that important to me.
However, according to his (new) posting history, does he also qualify as the new mindrust?

Asking for a friend...  

EDIT
Update on the car:
Repair estimated at €500 for the new glow plug and cleaning the insert thread of the cylinder head.
Manufacturer says it should be around €200. No warranty, or critical lawsuit case to expect with a 50% chance of winning (not good enough at these costs).
I'm getting a list of parts and work via Email, let's see where the price difference is coming from.

So after a couple of google translated Emails, they wanted to replace all four glow plugs (for whatever reason), so i insisted to change only the one that broke on trial of its removal and finally wound itself and popped out of the cylinder head due to heat and vibrations at about 90mph. Luckily it's one of the two without included pressure sensor, which reduces the cost to $50 instead of about $130 for this part. A little added here and there and some work like 1 hour needed should set me back no more than $200.
So i can add a good bottle of wine for the mechanic as well 

More on this on thursday, when i get there with a friend to finally pick up the car.